The Shadow of the Past - Gandalf's knowledge

[Huinesoron]

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I think the fact that the early drafts have Gandalf thinking it wasn't a Great Ring points directly at a continuity error: Gandalf now knows what the Ring is, but treats it as if he doesn't. Part of the reason he was "dismayed and in doubt" in the Silm quote is because Tolkien knew that he hadn't written him to follow the most logical course of action.

But if we set that aside: I think we come back to him thinking the Ring is one of the Seven. He trusted Saruman too much (like many others before and after him!); and after all, he knew that the One had been lost somewhere in Anduin, so a cave in the mountains was an implausible place for it to re-appear. A Dwarven Ring is far, far more likely; and just as dangerous in the hands of one of the Wise, because unlike the Three they're solidly under Sauron's power.

Given Saruman's known jealousy of the bearers of the Three, Gandalf's main concern was almost certainly that Saruman would take possession of the Ring and fall under Sauron's control. What was the best way to avoid that? "Keep it secret - keep it safe." You leave it in the Shire that nobody visits and most people have never heard of, don't tell anyone on the White Council, and quietly get the best warriors in Arnor to keep a close watch on the entire country. Which is exactly what Gandalf did.

hS

[William Cloud Hicklin]

I think Gandalf was in a position where deduction and simple arithmetic told him it could only be the One, but that was almost too much to believe, and then there was Saruman's definitive statement. There seemed no way the One could have made its way from Isildur's finger to a tunnel under the mountains, and if Saruman could be wrong about the One than surely he could be wrong about one of the others instead (in the first instance, the Seven- maybe one wasn't actually melted by a dragon but simply dropped?). He could not reconcile the data available, and certainly didn't want to make a definitive move until he was certain, or at least more certain. That certainty didn't come until he had found and questioned Goillum.