TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'm at work, but trying to follow the thread...

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

"We know not for certain," said Elrond, so Kath hasn't dreamed me, it's as simple as that. They're guessing.

To be precise, I don't think Kath has had the chance to tell anybody anything. It is the conclusion of the Dead based at most partly on the info they had and their own conclusions. But if I am right, she did not dream you - or she might have just this Night, but that would not have been transmitted on before Hui left.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If you think I co-engineered sally's reveal, think again. She was hinting pretty strong, and as an ordo I can't in good conscience ignore a Seer hint. The only way I would know she was lying - not believe, Boro, but know, a word you're playing much too fast-and-loose with! - would have been if I were
- either the real Seer
- or her packmate.
If she'd been for real, she might have saved the Day. I had to find out.

This, however, is a completely fair point.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Xed Lommy there’s a reason I tried getting night killed A to save the seer and B I’m rubbish in end game voted my “Among Us” loss record speaks for itself

You tried getting night killed? When?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm pretty sure they base this suspicion on the same thing I'm thinking...

That is cryptic. If you are thinking something, is it not the time to say it? Especially at this point, the village should be upfront. And information has more value than ever.

I am at work and will be for several hours, I would like to at least look at Lommy, Pitch, Boro and Morsul. Given what I said about the walls of text, I will probably have to somehow downgrade this ambition. I started to look at Day 1 but did not have the chance to get very far. I will see how I manage.

EDIT: x-ed with Boro

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That is cryptic. If you are thinking something, is it not the time to say it? Especially at this point, the village should be upfront. And information has more value than ever.

Uhh I did say it. Read the rest of the post. Where I respond to Pitch saying he didn't engineer it for sally to do a fake reveal.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Uhh I did say it. Read the rest of the post. Where I respond to Pitch saying he didn't engineer it for sally to do a fake reveal.

Okay, I see. I somehow read it that you were just responding to him and starting something new, especially since you were talking about something the Dead supposedly knew before but answering in present.

But okay. As I said I'm posting in-between work so my reading comprehension may suffer.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, I see. I somehow read it that you were just responding to him and starting something new, especially since you were talking about something the Dead supposedly knew before but answering in present.

But okay. As I said I'm posting in-between work so my reading comprehension may suffer.

Ahh I see how it could look like that with the "..." almost as if I was trailing off. So, anyway, yes I think Pitch is suspected by the dead because that looked like something wolves might have cooked up to draw out the seer. Even if Kath never had to technically reveal, unfortunately it made her come out more forcefully to secure sally's lynch.

I agree with your look there into Kath's dreams. It would appear Lottie and sally were 2 of them, as for the third and for her dream last night, I'm not sure we'll know for certain until tomorrow. But we'll have to get to tomorrow first.

And with the dead voting today, they'll know Kath's dreams. Something to consider about who they vote for today.

What are your thoughts on Lommy?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

What are your thoughts on Lommy?

I just started a reread of her, but since I'm doing it within rather random intervals, it is going slowly. My reread of Day 1 so far at least more or less confirms my generic impression: in terms of posts, nothing that would dramatically stand out by itself. If anything, I would look for some broader pattern; for that I have to finish my reread first. She could be something of a submarine, theoretically. But then again I'd expect a Wolf-Lommy to stand out more in some more ways. So not ruling out anything, but not the person who I'd consider the most suspicious of all. I want to finish reading the rest of everything.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

You tried getting night killed? When?

Post 399 was supposed to be a “LOOK AT ME IM THE SEER” type of post.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Post 399 was supposed to be a “LOOK AT ME IM THE SEER” type of post.

Fair enough...

[Thinlómien]

I don't understand Hui's posting. Unless it is to say that the dead think Soriman is innocent and Pitch is guilty? That's what I'm getting. But given that Kath joined the dead when Hui departed, these cannot be seer dreams. Update: Hui seems to have confirmed they know about Soriman and are guessing about Pitch. I would like to know how they're sure they know, but I guess I'll just have to take a leap of faith.

I'm seeing a Morsul-Boro alliance out in the open, and I'm pretty sure that's how the two of them would play it if they were the remaining wolves: appear decisively in the start of the Day when the Europeans are sleeping, direct the discussion where they want (ie towards the most guilty looking other player, ie Pitch), and not suspect each other. I'm mildly alarmed.

Pitch doesn't look too good, but I can kind of sympathise with what he said about his reaction to Sally yesterDay, and my own was not dissimilar - an innocent with no better knowledge would naturally fliflop.

I'm still intending to look at Kath myself because I don't trust anyone else to do it without twisting things, but continuing off Legate's post #430, I agree Kath likely dreamed of Sally, and I would hesitate to say she dreamed of wolf-Pitch or wolf-Legate, or she'd have come out yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Boro

This is another thing I don't get. So, this was the Day 2 vote, so you say you want to know something I'm scheming (which looks to me like you're trying to make something I do sound suspicious) but conclude "hopefully knowing Huey's role will help."

I'm not sure if this is breaking news to anyone, but I'm always up to something. Being up to something doesn't mean it's an evil something, and to call it "scheming" applies that it is evil. That's not really what bothers me though, because like I said it's not breaking news I try to lay out bait and traps. What bothers me is Lommy is framing myself negatively (I'm "scheming"), but instead of actually voting for me, she voted for Huey to "hopefully" find something out about me.

If you're innocent, you're "having a plan", if you're guilty, you're "scheming"? Ok, joking aside, I did and do think you're making some weird maneuvers which I haven't been able to follow. Naturally, that makes me worry if they're good or evil. Here the "scheming" you were doing was whatever was the point of pursuing Legate for the first half of the Day, then dropping it and going for Huin instead. I don't think it was wrong of me to think of that as nefarious. In fact, I still think it entirely possible that you and Legate are the remaining wolves (in which case, toDay has not started very well). And yeah, I still don't know what the back-and-forth between you, Huin and Legate was about. It's hard to believe you'd all be innocent. I'm planning to look at that toDay. And as for why I voted for Huin and not you - I thought you might be "scheming" but it was not my main line of suspicion. In fact, if you look back, I thought the order of suspiciousness in your trio was Huin > Legate > you (which was likely stupid of me, given even the statistic likelihood of one of you two others being a wolf).

Originally Posted by Boro

But that's not what Kath said. #322

Pitch said that Kath had not yet said something about Morsul. Her "fair point" is that she had not said anything yet about Morsul, and then proceeds to do a Morsul-analysis.

No, I thought Kath was referring to the first part of the thing she quoted (Pitch pointing out that she and Morsul are in tandem), you think she was referring to the latter part of the thing she quoted (that she hasn't said anything about Morsul). Looking at Kath's post again, I can see what you mean, and I actually agree your interpretation is more likely than mine. It makes more sense, especially now in retrospect knowing that Kath and Morsul cannot be wolvish packmates.

Also, getting weird vibes from Boro's last post which is basically just answering questions about himself no one asked and lamenting his wrong decisions (such as voting for Hui) in a way that makes him sound like a self-conscious wolf.

Okay, now off to do some rereading.

PS. Not sure what to make of the fact that Legate seems oblivious to the fact that there are still 2 wolves among us. I don't think he's suspected anyone in his several posts toDay, which is a big red flag to me. Who do you think the wolves are?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't understand Hui's posting. Unless it is to say that the dead think Soriman is innocent and Pitch is guilty? That's what I'm getting. But given that Kath joined the dead when Hui departed, these cannot be seer dreams. Update: Hui seems to have confirmed they know about Soriman and are guessing about Pitch. I would like to know how they're sure they know, but I guess I'll just have to take a leap of faith.

I'm not following the difficulty you (and sally, Pitch yesterday) appear to be having with the messages from the ghosts? They've been brilliantly clear in making sure the accurate information is given.

Yesterday Form had 2 messages from "Iluvatar" (G55 and BG) that were given to the Dead thread. G55 explained that since there was no wolf yet, this was a tidbit of information randomly selected by them:

Originally Posted by G55

In light of recent posts, yet another rules reminder. The Dead HAVE gotten Infodrops on both N2 and N3. This info was not concrete information as could befit a seer. It is not truly cryptic in the sense that you have to figure out a riddle, more just vague. Information that may limit your range of possibilities in certain scenarios but does not point to any one specific scenario being true.

Does that make sense? In 5 words: the Dead have vague facts.

One of those "vague facts" was there was at least one wolf among the list of people who received a vote on Day 1. This has been confirmed as true, with sally being lynched a wolf yesterday. It could be Morsul and Pitch are also wolves, because the "vague fact" was only "at least one of them is a wolf." So, this message is for as far as I know, fulfilled. It cannot be used to point guilt towards Morsul or Pitch, and it cannot clear Morsul of Pitch.

Now as G55 also stated, if a wolf joins the dead thread, that wolf would get a pick of the "vague fact" that the dead learn. This does not mean sally was allowed to choose false information, just that she had her pick of what the "vague fact" was..I know G55 loves being a cobbler, but she's not a liar, I can't imagine she would give sally false information to give to the dead and then have them provide it to the living; only that sally had her choice from a number of "vague facts" the dead could learn.

That fact apparently was something revealing Soriman's innocent. That much is clear in Huey's messages. Post #407. I mean, "Iluvatar" "Saruman" "innocent" "friendship"...I don't see how this is any way not clear.

His other message is conveying the beliefs of the dead. The first quote mentions "Gorlim" (the Ghost). The dead believe Pitch is a wolf, this is again a clear difference between what they learned about Soriman, and what they believe about Pitch.

I would suspect a cobbler would have a lot of fun with trying to confuse us about the messages, but seeing as there is no cobbler. My conclusion is it has to be wolves, because only they would benefit from trying to be confused by the Ghost's messages. So far that is something that just factually doesn't make sense, neither Form nor Huey have been ambiguous in their quoting.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by FotR: The Council of Elrond

Aragorn smiled at him; then he turned to Boromir again.

Ghost

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Silm: Ainulindale

But when they were come into the Void, Ilúvatar said to them: 'Behold your Music!'

Originally Posted by RotK: Many Partings

But now come tell me: what of the task that I set you? How is Saruman?

Originally Posted by UT: The History of Galadriel and Celeborn

Thus the Dwarves of Moria may be presumed to have been innocent of the ruin of Doriath and not hostile to the Elves.

Ghost

[Thinlómien]

I have spent a lot of time in this game writing post summaries and I don't have the time now since I want to look at all of Kath, Sally, Boro, and Legate, so you'll just have to bear with my impressions:

Kath

On Day1, possibly to avoid wolvish attention, Kath didn't single anyone out as particularly wolvish or innocent. She voted for Morsul. Day2 she heavily suspected Sally based on Form's death and voted for her, and she also suspected all of the Hui-Legate-Boro trio to a degree, but unlikely dreamed of any of them (especially unlikely in the case of Huin ). Defended Lottie. Conclusions? Sally and Lottie were likely seer dreams.

Day3 then? Speculates a Sally/Lommy/Pitch pack, also suspects Legate. Makes it clear that "sally I think is a wolf regardless of the other two" but otherwise making no clear ranking of suspiciousness between others. Ergo likely didn't dream of anyone else (and well, I can tell you with 100% certainty that she didn't dream of me, or she wouldn't have wasted her time suspecting me). Later voices more suspicion of Pitch based on his communication with Sally. Also looks at Morsul but doesn't conclude anything concrete about his guilt/innocence, so safe to say she didn't dream of him either. Says she's tempted to think Soriman is a wolf and says almost nothing at all about Boro; if we trust the dead, she cannot have dreamed of guilty!Sori and I think she'd have mentioned if she had serious reasons to believe Boro was guilty or innocent. So I'm a little swamped about dream #3, my guess is that she actually only dreamed of Sally AFTER suspecting her on Day2 to confirm/prove it, and one of her earlier dreams was someone who died (basically Greenie or Form). I guess it's also possible she dreamed of a Wolfwife on N3, but I'd think she'd have come out in that case. Also that doesn't really add up with the "sally is a wolf regardless" comment.

Sally

Day1 was her infamous quiet Day, and she did not vote. On Day2 she says she would vote for Lottie (for aggression) or Lommy (gut instinct), has no idea about Hui, Sori and Legate, and would not vote Boro, Pitch, Morsul, or Kath. Defended Pitch quite vocally by her standards (give that she was quite quiet in this game), and voted for Lottie. I do think wolf!Sally could defend Pitch regardless of his role - to buddy up with an innocent, but she could just as well defend a fellow openly and trust to get away with it.

Day3 has again more material, and it's here stuff gets more interesting. She refused to buy into the "one of Sally / Morsul / Pitch is guilty" theory as long as she could. Instead she kept saying Morsul is likely misguided innocent and didn't say anything about Pitch. Said she "would vote" Kath, Legate, Lommy or Sori, and "wouldn't vote" Boro, Morsul or Pitch. She tried to make a case against me, and agreed with Boro's point against Legate. Didn't really specify why she put anyone else in any particular category, if I'm correct. Then later in the day she seems to have flipped - perhaps after it started to look like a majority of the village was willing to vote for her, or maybe after enough people explained the dead thread message to her - and she amended that maybe Morsul or Pitch could be a wolf after all. Later she tried to fake she was the seer and she'd dreamed of innocent Boro and Morsul, and try to get the village vote for Kath with her. Says Pitch is more likely a wolf than Morsul. Says "Et tu, Boro?" when Boro votes for her.

Comments: A lot to unpack here, especially with the votes against her combined. Let me just comment individually how likely packmates I consider everyone for Sally, in the order which they voted for her:

#1 Morsul: was the first one to vote for Sally, right at the beginning of the Day, and kept pressing at her lynch throughout the Day. Sally kept defending him 'til the end. Now this would have been an insanely bold move from wolf Morsul. Remember, we know now Sally was lynched, but there was no way the wolves would have known she was doomed from the beginning of the Day. A sacrifice like Morsul's would have been an unnecessary prolonging of the game from their pov. I mean I guess it's possible the wolves thought Sally was toast and decided to bus her from the beginning of the Day, but I'd think they'd have preferred to have tried to win the game yesterDay. Sally's insistence in Morsul's innocence could have been to make herself look better (I don't think knee jerk suspicion of Morsul would have helped her case), or I guess more sinister if she didn't want to make Morsul another lynch option when the pack had already decided to bus her, not him.

#2 Kath

#3 Boro - now his and mine (#4) were the decisive ones. (Had voting for Sally stopped at 3 votes and someone else got 3 too, the outcome would have been up to the dead thread. So number #3 made sally an almost certain lynch candidate and #4 sealed it.) Normally, I would say that this would be a credit to Boro, but given that nobody except Pitchwife and myself to a lesser degree seemed to be considering sally's reveal could be genuine, bussing her at this point would have been a clever move for Wolfomir88. (Also, Boro didn't even consider Sally's reveal could have been genuine. Somewhat typical Boro-singlemindedness, or was he so sure she wasn't genuine because he knew?) Sally's continued trust in Boro makes me raise my eyebrows, but then again, "Et tu, Boro?" would be pretty bold against a fellow wolf. But then again, Sally is bold. Idk. To be honest, my feelings towards Boro in this game can be summed up in two words: intense paranoia, ok and also the following three: second-guessing everything.

#4 me

#5 Soriman, whom I'm not going to analyse

#6 Legate - a late vote that does him little credit. He'd have voted for Sally at this point regardless of his role. She threw him in her suspicious category earlier during Day3 but didn't contribute very much to making an actual case against him - this is another piece of non-information, if you ask me. I think the wolves would likely not have turned against each other in the first half of the day since they could still have won by lynching an innocent - but then again, putting him in a "suspicious" category but only proceeding to make one (1) unoriginal point against him would hardly make Legate more likely to get lynched.

#7 Pitchwife - as has been pointed out almost ad nauseam toDay, he looks the worst in conjuction with Sally. She considered him innocent earlier, on Day3 considered him innocent without drawing extra attention to him (she didn't claim to have "seer dreamed" of him unlike about Morsul and Boro, but she kept him safely in her innocent category without really saying anything to draw attention to him either before or after her reveal, except for a somewhat belated "ok if one of me, Morsul and Pitch is a wolf, it has to be Pitch", which is understandable, because she had just claimed she dreamed of innocent Morsul.) I still think the Pitch-Sally interaction is a little fishy, but as I said before, I can also sympathise with Pitch. I mean if you're an ordo, can you really rightaway disregard a seer reveal, however unlikely the source? Perhaps Pitch looks foul but feels fair. However, this game has proven that both my reason and my gut-feeling can be equally wrong, so I'm hesitating to draw any conclusions.

Ok leaving Legate and Boro for the next post, and focusing on that weird dance with Huin on D2 because I don't have the time to go through all their verbiose posts, and D1 I think is likely not that telling and D3 is in my fresh memory... then I'm also gonna look at wolf-packs. My current options are Morsul-Boro (who'd have decided to bus Sally), Legate-Pitch (would look maybe the most likely in regards to Sally I guess), or Legate-Boro (downright insane but absolutely actually quite plausible and also sounds like we would be done for). Individually I think Morsul looks the most innocent, but I'm on the fence about the other three.

But now, Legate just came home and we're gonna make dinner, so a little break from ww first. Wish us luck that we won't stab each other with kitchen knives, it's absolutely insane to be in the same apartment on a Day like this. (Don't play ww with your significant others, children, it might be detrimental to your relationship and/or mental health!)

Also I'm gonna cross-post with everyone because I've been writing this for almost two hours (jeez).

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

To be precise, I don't think Kath has had the chance to tell anybody anything. It is the conclusion of the Dead based at most partly on the info they had and their own conclusions. But if I am right, she did not dream you - or she might have just this Night, but that would not have been transmitted on before Hui left.

Confirmed. Kath joined the DT the moment Hui left it - ie they did not interact on the DT.

[Thinlómien]

Anyone else having problems with the 'downs? I keep getting some "error 508: resource limit reached" when I open a new page (but not every time, it seems) This is not speeding up my analyses...

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Anyone else having problems with the 'downs? I keep getting some "error 508: resource limit reached" when I open a new page (but not every time, it seems) This is not speeding up my analyses...

Yep! I got that too, a number of times. That, or the page just never loads. But now it seems to be better. ???

I hope the gods of the internet aren't gonna ruin this crucial Day!

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

To hopefully help get the trust of the fellow loyalists to my lords Barahir and Beren, as I said yesterday my steering days are over. And as I said today, it's not breaking news that I lay out plans, and bait, and traps. But today, those days are over for me too...with the loss of Lottie and Kath there's no point in trying to lay out cryptic messages that I intended to confuse the wolves with...which also does have a habit of catching some ordinary innocent along the way. Yes, I'm still saddened by my role in Huey's lynch. But for that, you see I take the blame for my part in it, but have others? Pitch? Lommy? Legate? You have blood on your hands as much as I do.

I don't think it needs stating that none of us five covered ourselves in glory that day. With all we know by now it's certain that at least one wolf was driving the Huiwagon hoping to save sally, but even if two of them were in it they had help from innocents who forgot that the proper way to solve a Gordian knot is not by the sword. Whether you were a driver or a helper I can't say. There has been talk about your comment to Legate during the voting ("See, I told you one vote could make a bandwagon"), and I could totally see that as a "Hey, that worked!" from wolf to wolf.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I went into Day 1 and the following night thinking Pitch was the seer, dreamed I was innocent, because I didn't think of any reason why 1 person would say something fairly definitive about me that early.

Gut feeling based on the general tone of your posts and the overall way of thinking in them, which I felt was fairly straightforward. Should have worded that more carefully.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

But I saw no such hints that Pitch knew Lottie's role, so I scrapped that plan and went full out towards what looked like the most suspicious thing from Days 1 and 2. Legate's vote analysis. Unfortunately it just ended up pitting Huey and myself against each other and I did not see the error of my ways until after Huey's lynch.

Or you lost interest in lynching Lottie when I backed off her (I need to check the chronology), went wolf-on-wolf against Legate and when Hui engaged you about it you took the opportunity to go after him instead.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Day 3 - Lottie was the ranger and now dead. Form delivers a message that at least one from Morsul, sally or Pitch is a wolf. So I'm questioning now..wait Boro, is Pitch the seer?

So that pretty much settled it for me that he wasn't the seer. And now Pitch, this is why I suspect you for your part in sally's fake reveal yesterday.

Let me go through this one last time:
sally #316: "Vote for almost literally anyone else."
sally #318: "Wouldn't vote Boro, Morsul, Pitch." 3 names: N1, N2, N3.
You wouldn't think she was hinting, fine. A you say, you know her a lot better than I do. But do you at least see why I thought she was? It didn't help that I didn't suspect you much and was wavering about Morsul, and I obviously know my own role.

And incidentally, since you and sally were very trusting of each other on D2, and I know you know each other well, I'm afraid I let that colour my perception of both of you. Hermeneutic vicious circle.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I am no wolf, and not a betrayer. Something I am reminding myself, still being troubled by Huey's lynch, even though I plan to bait wolves, that can lead to catching unintended innocents. It is my flaw...just because in my head I thought Pitch was the seer, doesn't mean he intended to give me any such reason to believe it. Honestly, it's not quite adding up, because his response in 282 looks honest of "that wasn't for you at all. I was telling myself not to be too trusting of you and sally." Also, if Pitch was intending to look like the seer why would he press sally into trying to reveal it?

What say you Pitch? Now that you can see my thought process and judge for yourself the truth of it.

I'll judge the truth of it at the curtain call, when the true meaning of Ilúvatar's themes is revealed for all to see. For now, it sounds believable enough, so if you made it up, good job.
I don't know. I can't put it better than 'I want to trust you more than I dare to.'