Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Brinn is correct. I meant Nilp, for catching a wolf in the act. Granted, it would have been better if they hadn't also gotten our seer, but still, one down is a success.

Then what do you mean by "do it again"?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Then what do you mean by "do it again"?

Again, by "do it again" I mean "trap another wolf."

Am I not explaining this correctly?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Again, by "do it again" I mean "trap another wolf."

Am I not explaining this correctly?

I hope you're just covering your tail here, and not assuming I'm too slow to understand the surface meaning of what you said.

Your cover story doesn't work. The beast hunter has one trap.

[Rikae]

I've seen it a million times - baddies can't resist the temptation to make those kinds of jokes, and I could see Sally *especially* giving it to it.

Trouble is it could be just as cobblerish as wolfish. Wolf-playing-cobbler-playing-ordoish. Nobody wants to lynch the cobbler toDay.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I've seen it a million times - baddies can't resist the temptation to make those kinds of jokes, and I could see Sally *especially* giving it to it.

Trouble is it could be just as cobblerish as wolfish. Wolf-playing-cobbler-playing-ordoish. Nobody wants to lynch the cobbler toDay.

Oh my God. I reread the rules after the narration posted and missed the part where he only got to do that once. Well....biscuits and gravy.

Nope, that's fair. Suspect away, because that was stupid of me. I totally forgot about that rule.

[Macalaure]

Formendacil, or rather, what people said about him

Day1
He pretty much got under scrutiny right away, with people forming some half-joking suspicions based on ic posts, wolf strategy, possible cobbler hints, Day1 grumpiness, and no-lynch stuff. Rereading/reskimming it, he sure made it easy to suspect him, which gives the cobbler suspicions some merit. Anyway, among the still-alive, Sally, Brinn, Pitch, Lommy, Shasta, and Rikae are the ones caught up in it, so more than half the village. I don't feel like I can tell for sure here who may have been grasping for straws to set him up and who was grasping for straws because there wasn't anything else to grasp for yet. Oddly none of the still-living ended up voting for him.


Day2
-Kath analyzes Lottie and is lead to mention a Form-Legate-Nog pack.
-Pitch agrees with BG about her bad Form gut feeling, and with Kath's idea, too, while throwing more names into the pot.
-Brinn agrees with Legate that if BG is a wolf, Form likely is not, and vice versa.
-Pitch brings up Form's gifted discussion and says that if Form or Nilp were the NW, the pack would not have come to save either.
-Lommy: if Form is a wolf, look at Nog and Kath. Also agrees with Pitch. Puts him on her list of suspects and says she's flip-flopping on him.
-Sally finds Form suspicious without giving a reason, putting him as No. 1 in her possible wolf pack list.
-Rikae has Form as vaguely suspicious.
-Pitch goes after him because of the way he worded his suspicion of Pitch and Kath. Legitimate in general, but Pitch's reaction seems a bit much.
-Shasta brings to attention that people point out BG's gifted discussion but not enough go for Form's, though he also says that wolves don't have much of a reason to in the first place. (Why point this out if you don't think it's wolfish?) Kath replies to this that she didn't notice and Pitch replies that he did.
-Pitch adds that wolves have no reason to, but cobblers do.
-Brinn adds that the NW might as well, and Shasta agrees.
-Pitch puts Form in his fourth tier of suspicion, due to cobbler suspicions, I assume.
-Lommy puts him into a very large "who knows" category, saying he doesn't sit right with her, but that it might be kneejerk. Later considers voting for him and still later does, since he's the most suspicious one among those who have votes.
-Brinn could go for him as well, says his posts look calculated. (Not sure what she means by this.)
-Pitch wanted to vote for Kath but Form's vote makes him reconsider.
-Lommy tries to steer Nog into voting for him.
-Pitch could vote for Form but rather wouldn't, since he thinks he's the cobbler.
-Brinn wants to vote for Nog but doesn't consider him feasible at this point. Form is her second choice.
-Kath votes Nilp, wants to go through Form's posts before judging him.
-Sally, too, doesn't vote Form due to cobbler suspicion.
-Shasta votes for Form without time to explain.

Not sure whether the Form-cobbler faction is more or less suspicious, honestly. None of the still living had him as their first suspect, but many considered voting him and some did. There's a lot of agreeing posts in here, which doesn't sit too well with me.


Day3
-Brinn says that she preferred Nog over Form since Form looked more like a cobbler. She analyzes BG and concludes that it doesn't look good for Form.
-Sally is the first among the still-living to actually go all out to suspect him. Didn't like that Form suspected her for being quiet. Says the Nogrod lynch may have been to save Form. She lists Kath alongside him.
-Brinn changes her mind from Form-cobbler to Form-NW.
-Shasta is the first to say that Form is suspicious for still being alive and that he's being saved.
-Rikae doesn't buy Form's vote explanation, implies they think he's a wolf.
-Lommy agrees with Brinn on Form looking suspicious due to BG, but still hesitates, and also on Form possibly being the NW. Picks up a post of Greenie on me and Form and adds that it wouldn't surprise her to see me be wolves with him.
-Nilp states that he had trusted Form but is confused about it now.
-Lommy lists him as double hmmmmm, due to not dying, posting statistics instead of opinions, and BG's suspicion.
-Brinn doesn't like Form's reaction to Nilp's reveal.
-Kath says the general suspicion about Form makes more sense now that she noticed... his Day1 post about not voting??
-Shasta lists Form as first option next to Kath, because of the traction thing - i.e. since he keeps not getting lynched.
-Rikae envisions a scenario with Form as wolf and Brinn and me innocent (which yesterDay at first struck me as a super obvious seer hint) and then speculates on packmates based on this. (And they manage to rub a whole bunch of people the wrong way which is quite amusing to read, no matter who's guilty or not in this bunch.)
-Kath went back to reading up on Form and finds a number of points against him, which each look ok on their own.
-Brinn says that Form and Pitch stick out to her, leaning Form, who she suspects to be the NW planning to foil Nilp in death. Kath will agree with this and also with that the NW should still be lynched.
-Shasta states that Rikae and Legate wanted to save both, Kath and Form.

And here come the votes:
-Kath++Form
-Sally states she still wants to lynch Form.
-Rikae++Form
-Sally++Form
-Shasta++Form
-Lommy agrees with Shasta's Form/Kath idea, though she's not sure about it. Wants to vote for Form since she's not convinced of Legate's guilt.
-Lommy++Form
-me++Form
-Legate++Form
-Brinn doesn't like that everybody is voting for Form.
-Pitch++Form, after briefly considering Legate.
-Nilp++Form
-Brinn++Form
-Lommy has heavy second thoughts after Form's testament.

Kath - ignores him at first then warms up to lynching him after others prod her to. Her one larger post about him looks ok by itself, but given that Form did do a lot of odd things, it's not too hard to fabricate for a wolf. So while on the one hand this was a very convenient way to go for her, why would wolfKath ignore him for so long at first?

Rikae - I really don't know what to make of them at all...

Sally - giving credit to her for being the first among the still-living to firmly suspect him instead cobbler stuff or him being one of many suspects. The tightness of her case is just so-so.

Shasta - two things rub me wrong pretty strongly: pointing out Form's gifted talk while one sentence later saying it's not wolfish. Very much feels like he's trying to make other people suspicious of him while washing his own hands of it. Then there his idea that Form is more suspicious because he keeps surviving, which is still nonsense to me.

Lommy - she's the only one who, while suspicious of Form, maintains a hesitant tone. A wolf might do that to not look too bad once the innocent is dead, but it feels genuine. She too though says that Form is suspicious for not dying, though.

Pitch - maintains the Form-cobbler thing for the longest time. A wolf could discuss the cobblerness of an innocent to make them look bad without accusing them of being a wolf. Interestingly, he doesn't meaningfully mention him at all on Day3.

Nilp - only says that he's confused. That's it. Yep.

Brinn - has Form high on her list pretty consistently. Said she held back because she thought him to be the cobbler, but changed her mind on Day3. Getting the feeling of an innocent, though a somewhat single-minded one.


Based on this only, I'd say roughly:

Shasta - Pitch/Kath - Rikae/Sally - Nilp - Lommy/Brinn

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Mac

Brinn - has Form high on her list pretty consistently. Said she held back because she thought him to be the cobbler, but changed her mind on Day3. Getting the feeling of an innocent, though a somewhat single-minded one.

I truly have had tunnel vision these last couple Days unfortunately. Maybe these folks with spreadsheets are doing something right, though the thought of creating spreadsheets myself makes me cringe.

Mac, I'm curious to know who you think Greenie dreamed of. Mainly because I thought Shasta seemed likely to be one of her dreams and if I'm right, that would make him innocent. However you list him as suspicious, so clearly you disagree.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

First of all, that's it, that's my trap. I'm now just a confused Ordo. And I don't know if I just drew the Ranger away from protecting Greenie.

Second, the vote list:

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold. A plus after the name indicates the Medium.)

+2238: Kath – Form (Form – 1)
+2258: Greenie – Legate (Form – 1, Legate – 1)
+2302: Rikae – Form (Form – 2, Legate – 1)
+2310: Form+ – Legate (Form – 2, Legate – 3)
+2310: Sally – Form (Form – 3, Legate – 3)
+2317: Shasta – Form (Form – 4, Legate – 3)
+2322: Lommy - Form (Form – 5, Legate – 3)
+2324: Mac - Form (Form – 6, Legate – 3)
+2327: Legate - Form (Form – 7, Legate – 3)
+2329: Pitch - Form (Form – 8, Legate – 3)
+2329: Nilp - Form (Form – 9, Legate – 3)
+2330: Brinn - Form (Form – 10, Legate – 3)

My only comment is to note that 2317 to 2329 avalanche of votes. I had in my notes: 'Bet my chances of rolling Merlin this Saturday that at least two of those five are wolves. Also, when are we lynching Legate?'

Okay, so I got Legate (at the cost of our most important villager), but my nose tells me there's still at least one more baddie among Shasta, Lommy, Mac, and Pitch.

Now off to lunch and earn my paycheck for the day. Hope to be back posting in six or so hours.

PS. To the Dead thread, I'm endorsing Mac's list. And despite being on my list, this line:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.

makes me want to trust you. Please don't be a Wolf.

PPS. Dominos, rolling balls, and strings? Classic Rube-Goldberg, Boromod.