Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ok Shasta said it first but what about "Pitchwife is the cobbler"?

I mean that's the only way I'm reading this nonsense that started sounding like valid concern over people jumping on the easy target and then spiraled into wilfully giving people headache:




edit: xed with S&S

Mine may have looked as though it were a jest, but I really do currently think that post of Pitch's I quoted could easily be a "don't kill me!" hint to the wolves. Why ask if fish leather would make good boots, otherwise?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Mine may have looked as though it were a jest, but I really do currently think that post of Pitch's I quoted could easily be a "don't kill me!" hint to the wolves. Why ask if fish leather would make good boots, otherwise?

Yes I agree that was a deliberate choice of words. Could be a wolf signaling to the cobbler too, though, maybe expecting someone to continue the banter and identify themselves that way? Or perhaps a very wily ordo trying to mislead the wolves but I think Occam's razor might have something to say about that theory.

[Huinesoron]

Okay. I'm going to put aside for now the people I mostly think look dodgy for their comments on me (mostly Kath and Nog, I think) ; I'm clearly very easy to misunderstand, so I'd need more to go on there. (Kath's chat with Nilp all looks very small from this distant time.) I'm also going to hold off on Nilp until I can get more of a feel for him.

Formendacil still looks innocentish. Rikae... I think I might just like their post style, but it looks pretty innocent to me. Lottie I at least don't get wolf vibes off.

Sally, well, there's not much to say yet. Macalaure's one post (that I can see) is low on content for being so far into the day (#75), so could be dodgy. Shasta has posted a lot, on a lot of subjects; I feel like they're contributing rather than trying to muddy things, but it is just a feel.

Blind Guardian has made... one post? All I remember is it felt like a newer player, and I'm out of time to hunt (can someone tell me how to pull up an individual player's posts?). Brinn hasn't posted much, but hasn't been using that to focus on just one topic (I had in my head that they were just talking about cobblers, so I looked back). Should have done this alphabetically... Legate looks okay, Greenie I remember something twigged early on but I don't know what.

Um, who have I missed? Lommy! I... can't remember what Lommy has said, but I don't remember flagging anything. And I think that only leaves Pitch and 'fish leather'.

Which seems like a really weird leap to make, and I don't see anyone reassuring Lommy that yes, 'fish leather' is a known WW concept. So he looks likely to be doing something Cobbler related. But would an actual cobbler just come out and say it?

Okay, checking cross-posts: so fish leather is a thing, Shasta has voted for me, Rikae and Legate disagree with me on thinking Formendacil innocent, and
Lommy and Lottie both strongly disagree with his suggestion he might unvote. But I still stand by my read from earlier.

... or I did, until #145. Good grief. Yes, we're statistically more likely to kill an innocent toDay - that's because the wolves haven't had time to whittle us down yet! I've seen this argument before, and it's never sounded good.

For my earlier suspicions, for my known dodgy people-reading abilities, and most especially for not simply talking about unvoting in frustration, but as a plan, I vote:

++Formendacil

(And now to bed/and now to bed!)

hS

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

can someone tell me how to pull up an individual player's posts?

Go to the Mirth page, click the number of posts of this thread, then click [EDIT]the number of posts beside[/EDIT] the name of the person.

[Nogrod]

Well, that was an interesting vote. What on earth that was supposed to mean?

Originally Posted by hS

Formendacil still looks innocentish.
...
Rikae and Legate disagree with me on thinking Formendacil innocent

...

For my earlier suspicions [and other reasons]
...
as a plan, I vote

[Thinlómien]

Nog, I had the same first reaction to Hui's vote, but you missed the part in the middle:

Originally Posted by Hui

... or I did, until #145. Good grief. Yes, we're statistically more likely to kill an innocent toDay - that's because the wolves haven't had time to whittle us down yet! I've seen this argument before, and it's never sounded good.

Which sounds like he was thinking and writing at the same time and changing his mind about Form along the way.

But (! attention! Lommy flip flop imminent) it is kinda fishy he goes a full circle to implying he suspected Form all along.


edit: xed with BG

[Boromir88]

Quick tally...

Nilp > Nilp
Shasta > Huey
Huey > Form
BG > Form (2)

No vote: sally

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold.)

+0609: Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+2208: Sally - none (Nilp – 1)
+2246: Shasta - hS (Nilp – 1, hS - 1)
+2312: hS - Form (Nilp – 1, hS - 1, Form - 1)
+2325: BG - Form (Nilp – 1, hS - 1, Form - 2)

[A Little Green]

I've decided it isn't too late to add another name.

++Pitchwife

Out of the ones I mentioned earlier, I'm most comfortable voting for him. Too tired to think this any further so crossing fingers and toes instead!

[Rikae]

Too many people either absent or lurking

Oh well, my strongest suspicion at this point:

++Huinesoron

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Are you saying you think wolf!Hui mixed up whether he voiced fabricated suspicion of Form before or not?

Yes and no. I see it more likely as a slip.

If you're an innocent and honestly think someone is innocent and then decide to vote that person on grounds of that person doing something you detest at the last hour, you don't reason for it on the basis of your earlier suspicions!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Which sounds like he was thinking and writing at the same time and changing his mind about Form along the way.

But (! attention! Lommy flip flop imminent) it is kinda fishy he goes a full circle to implying he suspected Form all along.

I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nog

I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?

Are you saying you think wolf!Hui mixed up whether he voiced fabricated suspicion of Form before or not?

[Thinlómien]

++Nilp

I think he's fairly likely either a wolf or the cobbler and it's the best lead I have.

Form is my other main suspect but I keep flipflopping about him. Currently slightly leaning "innocent whose brain works in a way I don't understand".

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?

How would "For my initial trust..." be a valid reasoning for voting someone?


IIRC Hui actually had some early suspicion of Formy, then after pushing (TM) him a bit thought him innocent based on his reactions, then changed his mind again in the eleventh hour. It was a sudden turn, to be sure, with reasoning borrowed from the posts above him, but I can't find fault with the reasoning itself.


I don't get Legate about quiet wolves & cobbler either - at least for the latter, isn't being quiet kind of the contrary of their job description, i.e. drawing attention from the wolves? Which makes me reluctant to vote either Formy or Nilp (although I suppose the latter could be a wolf posing as cobbler...hmm).


Also, BG hopping on the Formy train with reasoning borrowed wholesale? *ping*


Right now I feel most like voting Kath for her misrepresentation of Hui.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

How would "For my initial trust..." be a valid reasoning for voting someone?

Because he adds the next, "because of his poor judgement".

So: "I trusted X but nah, I have poor judgement, therefore I vote X".

I would have understood that.

[Boromir88]

Quick tally...

Nilp > Nilp
Shasta > Huey
Huey > Form
BG > Form (2)
Greenie > Pitch
Rikae > Huey (2)
Lommy > Nilp (2)
Nog > Huey (3)
Lottie > Legate
Kath > Huey (4)
Brinn > BG


No vote: sally

5 minutes to go.

[Macalaure]

I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

The way he grabs all the attention makes him a possible cobbler, or maybe a suicidal nightwolf, but I doubt that.

With that conjecture in mind, I had a fresh look at all the people who're interacting with him. I really don't want to put all my notes in here, just kind of the conclusions. The ones that stuck out a little:

Nog - first he's part of the discussion on what wolves do and what they don't and whether and how we should discuss that. Then he quotes half of his posts with the conclusion that he's pointing out he's trying to catch wolves too much. So many quotes for a so-so point.
Rikae - calls him a man on a mission. "Not sure I agree with his conclusion" is the kind of non-statements a wolf might make.
Kath - fake votes for him pushing too much. It seems a bit harsh to put him on the lynching block over without actually committing.
Pitch - comments on a number of things, but nothing of consequence really. Then agrees and adds a little to the point of his paranoia about Lottie. Too lurking around the fringes for my taste.
Shasta - throws a little bit of everything at him and then votes for him for lack of better options, which feels like the easy way out.

None of this feels enough to justify a vote. Might go with Pitch since he's the only one who has gotten votes and I'd like to not lynch Hui, or Form for that matter.

[Macalaure]

I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.

Yeah. I really don't think he's a wolf.

[Brinniel]

I don't really like the voting options so far. I thought Formy seemed a tad suspicious, but I'm having second thoughts. Throwing another candidate into the ring:

++Blind Guardian

For her opportunistic vote.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Mine may have looked as though it were a jest, but I really do currently think that post of Pitch's I quoted could easily be a "don't kill me!" hint to the wolves. Why ask if fish leather would make good boots, otherwise?

OK, in case I haven't made it clear in my reply to Rikae above: Formy posted some early banter about talking to the wolves and finding out what they want, Lottie called it fishy, and I tried to point out that it could have been cobbler signalling to wolves: fishy -> fish leather -> boots = cobbler. Apparently too metaphoric.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, in case I haven't made it clear in my reply to Rikae above: Formy posted some early banter about talking to the wolves and finding out what they want, Lottie called it fishy, and I tried to point out that it could have been cobbler signalling to wolves: fishy -> fish leather -> boots = cobbler. Apparently too metaphoric.

Fair enough. Also I see Shasta and Rikae already found another cobbler. (Also agreed, in retrospect, about your point about Form. Are we sure we don't have four cobblers and one wolf instead of four wolves and one cobbler? )

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, now I'm thinking Form may be a Cobbler for the no-vote suggestion.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. Maybe it's a language issue (and it could be on my part as well), but someone willing to make people think the wolves are mainly on the quiet side of the village might formulate the message thusly?

It wasn't supposed to be a "A leads to B" thing, I was thinking along the lines that it's been quiet overall, and perhaps if there was nothing big to stir some massive loud debate (provoked by a Cobbler), then the WWs were also lying low. It was more like the observation of current state of things.

Anyways... all Day nothing, now million posts... can't answer anything I wanted and gotta vote.

EDIT: x-ed with some