Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Kath]

Pitch then. Going with the assumption the wolves thought he was the Seer, so I'm reading with that mindset.

Day 1

Originally Posted by Pitch

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed

Well unless Lottie is a wolf and she's been worrying about this for five Days, I think this seems an unlikely source for a Seer hint.

Got involved in the fake votes discussion and viewed Legate as the leader of it, which made him ping. Then later finds G55's interpretation of events suspicious. It looks like he hadn't dreamed of Legate or G55 at this point then as the G55 suspicion came later.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*

So he hadn't dreamed of Mac, either.

Makes a sort of list post about the village but seems non-committal on everyone.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'd actually be surprised if there isn't at least one wolf among Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie. The later on the Pitchwagon, the likelier.

G55 is all over the place, fairly confrontational, sometimes eyebrow-raising (about Urwen/Maeglin: really?). Her all-out attack on Rikae just now does sound a lot like passionate innocent though and makes me feel better about her.
Paradoxically, so does Rikae's response so far.

Well so he definitely hadn't dreamed of Rikae or Kitanna. Further suspicion of Brinn afterwards.

Votes Brinn. Thinks Eonwe and Greenie made throwaway votes.

I mean, none of his suspicions seem anything but motivated by what he's seen in the game thread. At a push, Lottie for mentioning her twice in possible wolf lists. But it's so banter driven in the first instance and reactionary to being suspected in the second that I can't really see that being the case. Also, he flip flops on her in the next two Days, so I don't think that makes sense.

Day 2
Suggests Rikae's death implicates Brinn but then says that's maybe too obvious. Doesn't look like a dream.

Questions Hui's interpretation of his words and pings Inzil.

Speaks against Hui again. Doesn't look like he's dreamed Mac here as he's still unsure about him.

Gets drawn into the Kit discussion.

Looks at Inzil after pinging him and doesn't draw much in the way of conclusions, so seems like he didn't dream him.

Looks at Greenie and seems to find her overall innocent. A Greenie-wolf could use this as cover. If Pitch was the Seer, she looks good.

Some suspicion of Legate so hadn't dreamed him.

Said he'd vote Mac or Inzil so hadn't dreamed them.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I could still vote Zil, or I could actually get behind Legate's Hui vote. A few of Hui's posts look like subtly sewing suspicion while not getting too involved in anything.

Third time he's brought up Hui. Then goes for the vote and ties Hui with Mac, making the lynch more likely to happen.

Ok, I can maybe see the wolves wondering about Pitch having dreamed of Hui here, and then going for it once there was enough support to push for the lynch.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Pitch

Right. And may I say that Eönwë voting Hui because 'with the vote count as it is it's going to have to be this way', after he'd earlier listed Hui as 'fine for now', is as good a candidate for this as any.

This is his first post, so pushing for Eonwe early on. And he sticks with this suspicion. Eon-wolf pack concerned that he got Hui the Day before and now him too, or wolves thinking even if Pitch isn't the Seer this is a big push at an innocent Eonwe.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Could well be. There were a few exchanges between Hui and Greenie where it looked like he was taking guidance from her, so them being packmates doesn't seem unplausible.

It doesn't look like he'd dreamed of Hui and Greenie as both those names came up on Day 2.

Seems to flip flop on Brinn so an unlikely dream. Still suspicious of Inzil so didn't dream him.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I find it hard to reconcile Lottie's backing off of Mac and adding a fourth wheel to the Huiwagon with wolvishness. Also, would Hui have soft-suspected two of his packmates explicitly in connection with each other? I don't think so. I'm still leaning more towards Zil.

Right, so flipflopping on Lottie suggests not a dream.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Eönwë and to a lesser degree Greenie. Not sure about the others.

Hmm, I think that makes Greenie a less likely dream. If he'd dreamed her and Eonwe and found them both wolves then that 'lesser degree' bit wouldn't be there. And obviously if he'd dreamed her innocent she wouldn't be there at all.

Ends up voting Eonwe even amidst all the sally madness.

Day 4

Originally Posted by Pitch

It really sucks to loose Legate - maybe the only player I felt I could trust (although I felt pretty good about Mac too yesterDay).

Possible dream of Legate.

Still pinging Greenie but votes Eonwe - so very consistent with this.

Day 5
Focuses in on Boro, then backs off. Unlikely dream. (With Pitch=Seer hat off, also looks like Pitch did buy the hints Boro was putting out as he does back off.)

Originally Posted by Pitch

Full disclosure: Eönwë, Shasta and Greenie hinge on each other in my mind to some degree.

But was still unsure over Greenie in that post so I still think an unlikely dream.

Pre-votes Eonwe and Inzil.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'm not ready to vote Rune quite yet, but I could go with either of Ka or Eönwë (duly noted about Morgoth's Breath).

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't think it's such an outlandish reaction when they vote somebody you felt very much was innocent.

I'd say he hadn't dreamed Rune as he was nearly swayed by Lommy's counter argument at one point so didn't seem to have a real definite on him.

I know I've been banging on about the wolves must be going after people they think are the Seer, but I have to admit that I'm scratching my head a bit with this one. Eonwe is the big take away from it, and it could be the wolves thinking Pitch had pegged Hui and now also Eonwe, and wanted to kill him before he could catch any more of them even if that means Eonwe goes down with him. That's quite a fatalistic attitude though.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lottie re: Brinn

You really have nothing to say about Eonwe beyond agreeing with Greenie and therefore lumping him and Boro together? I personally don't understand her argument that they're on the same side at all. Like, I don't understand what the argument is. What I see is, Eonwe came out swinging, very like a wolf who decided not to kill him and to instead try to argue that his fake reveal was suspicious, and who was surprised to find that the village wasn't super interested in suspecting Boro when he assumed they would be. Eonwe already tied the two of you together by trying to say that you looked innocent like Lommy - now you're saying he looks innocent like Boro? Looks a lot like two packmates to me.

I'm not sure what to make of Brinn at this stage - I'm somewhat worried about how she's floating by without committing to anything that could become controversial, and I've reached a point where I get nervous if someone agrees with me because what if they're a wolf seeking brownie points. But regardless of what Brinn is, I think the argument for Boro and Eonwe being on the same side does make sense. As in -

The wolves are bound to be pretty desperately looking for the Seer at this stage, and if half the village noticed Boro's hints, they're bound to have done. Nobody's been able to find anything that looks half that "Seerish" in Pitchwife's posts. Sure, the wolves could have guessed Boro was bluffing; but would they really be willing to take the risk and leave him alive? So far, this pack's Night kills have looked rather safe and cautious than bold. So to me, the only logical reasons for them not to kill Boro are either

1) he was far enough off in one of his "dreams" that the wolves knew he wasn't the real Seer, or
2) he's one of them.

As for the Eonwe connection - if it's option 1), this would mean either that Lommy and/or Brinn are wolves, and/or that Eonwe is innocent. More specifically, the Pitchwife kill doesn't make sense if they're going for the Seer, Eonwe is a wolf and Boro isn't; both Pitch and Boro suspected Eonwe, and I can't see how Pitch could have looked more Seer-ish to them than Boro. So I'd say if the wolves are gunning for the Seer and Boro isn't one of them, then Eonwe likely isn't, either. Make sense?

If it's option 2), meanwhile, the above would explain why he's coming out now instead of letting it play out and fake-revealing at a later point. If we believe Boro's claim, then Eonwe being a likely innocent is a fairly logical conclusion. Eonwe was under a lot of fire yesterDay and quite a bit toDay, too. Something like this could be the only thing keeping both him and Boro alive and distracting the village for the 2 (!!!) days they'd need in order to win.

(I've just had a horrible thought. What if we have a pack of Boro/Eonwe/Kath? We wouldn't know what hit us.)

All this aside, I do think it's more likely that Boro is innocent. But I also stand by my conclusion that this means Eonwe likely is, too.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

So to me, the only logical reasons for them not to kill Boro are either

1) he was far enough off in one of his "dreams" that the wolves knew he wasn't the real Seer, or
2) he's one of them.

And

1a) After not falling for it. Granted I only tried to for like 2 days, once it turned out Lhuna was a wolf. I said what the heck, go for it and lay it on thick.

But wasn't convincing so now I'm probably being kept as an easy lynch. Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days. If they didn't fall for it, the pattern seems to be kill the people who look obviously innocent/difficult to lynch.

Eonwe and myself are the new Zil and Mac. At least that's what my thoughts are now. With my luck the QT innocents will now vote for me, because I ruined their trust and they're probably ****ed off. I still will tell them though, no rash decisions, I did all that I could to try to let the QT know I wasn't the seer. I thought it would send a good enough signal if they saw no purpose to what I was proposing and figured I'd be dead by now anyway.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And

1a) After not falling for it. Granted I only tried to for like 2 days, once it turned out Lhuna was a wolf. I said what the heck, go for it and lay it on thick.

But wasn't convincing so now I'm probably being kept as an easy lynch. Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days. If they didn't fall for it, the pattern seems to be kill the people who look obviously innocent/difficult to lynch.

Eonwe and myself are the new Zil and Mac. At least that's what my thoughts are now. With my luck the QT innocents will now vote for me, because I ruined their trust and they're probably ****ed off. I still will tell them though, no rash decisions, I did all that I could to try to let the QT know I wasn't the seer. I thought it would send a good enough signal if they saw no purpose to what I was proposing and figured I'd be dead by now anyway.

Genuinely not seeing Boro's side, why he thinks himself an easy lynch. Ka and Eonwe both go before Boro, IMO.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Boro

Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days.

I think Pitch did, actually. Like I said when I went through his posts, he definitely backed off quite quickly after initially engaging with Boro at the start of the Day.

[Thinlómien]

Typical of the ball to start rolling just as I have to get to cooking dinner etc but -

I might prefer Eönwë over Ka just to relieve him of his suffering earlier

I'll be popping in and out for the rest of the Day but you can consider my werewolf fatigue greatly alleviated and my vote for Eönwë or Ka guaranteed.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Kath

I think Pitch did, actually. Like I said when I went through his posts, he definitely backed off quite quickly after initially engaging with Boro at the start of the Day.

Pitch definitely seems to have bought Boro's fake reveal.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm very confused all in all but - Eönwë, what post do you refer to? Why is the jury only "maybe" out on me?

Boro's post, quoted yet again:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

I felt like one possible interpretation is that in talking about innocents he may have only been talking about previous Days - and this seems to have maybe been the interpretation taken by Lalaith because she only pushes him on Day 1 (Brinn) and Zil (Day 3). But upon reread it does seem less likely.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Yes, unless Brinn is a wolf. (Or for argument's sake: if I was.)

That's fair actually. Hm...

Anyway, regardless of all this madness, THE Ka is still the likeliest wolf in my book. I'm on the fence about Rune and Brinn, second-guessing Lottie (Lommy is right, that list was weird) and somewhat Eonwe too, and starting to get paranoid about Kath. I'm feeling pretty good about Lommy and Shasta, and will now stop talking about Boro because that's what he deserves.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Hmmm. I reread Boro's non-reveal. I think I have been thinking him the seer for longer than he has pretended to be one, so perhaps I should blame mostly myself... I thought it explained not only some of his cryptic comments, but also why he gave me both unusual and innocent vibes, why he chose to act so weird on Day1, and why he's been so adamant about my innocence when basically everyone else has questioned it (and perhaps why he did such a legate180 about Brinn). I think his reveal sounds fairly innocent (why would a wolf do any of this? or admit it?), but I would like to ask him more than ever give his updated, honest opinion of everyone - but in particular Eönwë, Brinn and myself.

In my own self-quarantine I've been going back to the earliest of earliest beginnings. I miss the banter and the "I suspect SPM because I was woken up by pots and pans banging" or "I saw horse prints at the scene, it has to be Firefoot!" Or how I nicknamed SPM, Spam, because of his habit to have long novels of analysis and theory on everyone and every topic.

Now everyone hates Day 1s. And the longer I stay around, the tighter things get, the more tense I get because I don't want my natural weirdness to cause irreparable damage. In the banter you can find the some of the best and most entertaining interactions.

Like, fair enough if he was pretending to have dreamt of innocent me and Brinn. But how did he know Inzil was innocent?

I don't think I did say anything about knowing Zil's innocence? It was G55 and Brinn Day 1. Day 2 Huey and Mac. Day 3 everyone voted sally, there was no other wagon.

Not sure what to make of Boro's newborn fatalism. Also:

I TRUSTED YOU BUT I COULDN'T SAY IT TOO OPENLY BECAUSE I THOUGHT YOU WERE THE SEER AND IT WAS BETTER TO KEEP ENOUGH VOICED SUSPICION ON YOU TO KEEP YOU ALIVE.

I took that as seriously no one trusted me. Like an "Ok I can lynch Boro whenever because he's weird." I mean, what you say in hindsight makes sense. At the time I was twitchy by all the suspicion people were tossing around, without actually getting the votes. Hence the nerves after sally's reveal that there could be a bandwagon against me.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Genuinely not seeing Boro's side, why he thinks himself an easy lynch. Ka and Eonwe both go before Boro, IMO.

Whenever I'm in these villages, I always feel like it won't take a lot for a bandwagon. Someone says they're the hunter/ranger/seer and it's "well let's lynch Boro." QT votes and it doesn't take a lot of convincing to hop on that train.

[Loslote]

Just from a very quick scan of yesterDay's posts, I found a couple of posts from Shasta that looked Seerish. If that was on purpose to draw fire, well done, Shasta.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.

This one in particular REALLY sounds like a Seer who might've dreamed me and Greenie innocent, and may have even dreamed Ka and Eonwe guilty. Followed by:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think at this point if I had to pick a third wolf for an Eonwe/Ka duo it would be Brinn. Outside shot at Kath, maybe - I've barely looked at her.

Which sounds a lot like "I'm going to dream Brinn next; I haven't dreamed of Kath, don't assume I have just because I've said she looks okay."

I haven't looked past yesterDay, but at this point I sort of assume the wolves are looking for Seer clues in the more recent Days. The Seer has more info now than they did early, so there might be more clues to find.

[Boromir88]

My poor child, thanks for giving your life to bring down more than one infector.

Which sounds a lot like "I'm going to dream Brinn next; I haven't dreamed of Kath, don't assume I have just because I've said she looks okay."~Lottie

I might have botched my plot, but glad some good came out of it for coming out when I did.