Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Lalaith]

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

A bunch of dead innocents think she's the most suspicious person here/ someone we should pay more attention to. But as long as we don't know their reasoning, what can we do except say "ditto, noted"?

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Clarification: this doesn't mean that I'm not considering voting Lhuna. It just means that I'm considering it only a rather flimsy basis, which doesn't make me too happy.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

I haven't done one today, haven't quite had the time to follow too close. Trying to catch up on the details of today. This was I think from Day 2:

#502

[Lalaith]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

[Lalaith]

But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Yes - definitely.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Yes - definitely.

Could be read as a Seer hint? From her posts yesterDay, I don't see much confidence towards anyone's innocence or guilt. If anything, maybe they thought her previous Nights' dream was Legate, and that's why she was bummed to find him dead? Otherwise, not sure who they would've thought she dreamed on Night 4.

[Pitchwife]

Looking through Lalaith's posts right now, and the first thing to catch my eye was this:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

How do you know that's what happened on Day 1?
Hmm?

This is actually a very good question which I'd like Boro to answer.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Looking through Lalaith's posts right now, and the first thing to catch my eye was this:


This is actually a very good question which I'd like Boro to answer.

I already answered yesterday and won't say anymore. If you want to know it's easy to find. I'm rather surprised, grateful, but surprised.

If I recall, evil side holds the tie-breaker, because Lhuna was the last lynch. But 6-3 advantage means we'd have to have a bunch of squabbling innocents in order to get a bad QT vote.

I'm certainly going to continue the good ground we began yesterday with the QT vote and feel I should get a tiny apology. Not a big one, but a small one, because the living and dead worked together and we did what I advocated we should have done for days.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I already answered yesterday and won't say anymore. If you want to know it's easy to find. I'm rather surprised, grateful, but surprised.

You mean this, which you posted in reply to Lal's question?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm willing to bet G55 and Huey had fun trolling us for 2 days in the QT.

I don't see how this is an answer.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm certainly going to continue the good ground we began yesterday with the QT vote and feel I should get a tiny apology. Not a big one, but a small one, because the living and dead worked together and we did what I advocated we should have done for days.

Considering that yesterDay was the first Day this actually made sense, it'll have to be a small one.

[Eönwë]

The all-but-reveal yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Looking through Lalaith's posts right now, and the first thing to catch my eye was this:

This is actually a very good question which I'd like Boro to answer.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I already answered yesterday and won't say anymore. If you want to know it's easy to find. I'm rather surprised, grateful, but surprised.

If I recall, evil side holds the tie-breaker, because Lhuna was the last lynch. But 6-3 advantage means we'd have to have a bunch of squabbling innocents in order to get a bad QT vote.

I'm certainly going to continue the good ground we began yesterday with the QT vote and feel I should get a tiny apology. Not a big one, but a small one, because the living and dead worked together and we did what I advocated we should have done for days.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You mean this, which you posted in reply to Lal's question?

I don't see how this is an answer.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Yep. You can put it together to make sense of it. Unless you're trying to get me to commit to something I'm not going to, at the moment?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

So I suppose you're talking bout this, right?

If you're convinced that was his reasoning, fair enough, I suppose.

edit:trying to fix formatting but it doesn't want to work

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

You and me both.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Well, I did do an analysis of her yesterDay, but I don't have time to look any further into her posts toDay.

I could vote for Lhuna, but my preference lies with Inzil.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

I don't know why we should read too much into that. Wolf-on-wolf is always a possibility. Eönwë hasn't been under that much suspicion; a packmate Lhuna could vote him quite safely. Also, Lhuna voted an hour before the QT deadline which is probably but not certainly enough time for the QT to react to. At any rate, I don't see why we should assume their vote says more about their thoughts on Eönwë's role than Lhuna's.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

[Lalaith]

Brinniel has fallen completely under my reindeer and I consider that an issue.

This is cute.

[Lalaith]

Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

How do you know that's what happened on Day 1?
Hmm?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

How do you know that's what happened on Day 1?
Hmm?

I'm willing to bet G55 and Huey had fun trolling us for 2 days in the QT.

[Lalaith]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm willing to bet G55 and Huey had fun trolling us for 2 days in the QT.

so presumably you think Zil is innocent too?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

I agree with the sentiment but I think "whether they want to bus wolf-Huey or not" is a tough enough choice.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I agree with the sentiment but I think "whether they want to bus wolf-Huey or not" is a tough enough choice.

To add: a tough enough choice that we still haven't scrutinised to my satisfaction.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I do not at all feel that the day has been narrowed to Lommy and Inzil.

If you look at the discussion, it feels like that; if you look at the actual votes + mock votes + who people have said they're considering voting, you're right. Really not sure what to make of that.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

I do not at all feel that the day has been narrowed to Lommy and Inzil.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

This makes me really not want to vote Boro toDay.

I don't like doing this while he's away, and I've been second-guessing it quite a bit after Lhuna's vote and the QT vote, but I might as well.

++Eönwë

[Thinlómien]

Greenie's analysis is very interesting and informative. I'm trying to take it with a pinch of salt, but it's exactly the kind of important data I've been too lazy to harvest myself so I'm very thirsty for it. Also I have to say that if Greenie is a wolf she's putting admirably much effort into something that doesn't hugely benefit her. (Sure, good way to find unfortunate innocents who might have been implicated by the deaths of her fellows. But likely hard to not end up implicating her remaining fellows to a degree in the process?)

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now I don't recall playing with Lhuna before, so to those who have: How much wolf-on-wolf do you think she'd be willing to engage in?

I don't have a particular recollection about that, but she has a thing for doing brash things while somehow not appearing quite as brash. Look how she got away with self-voting on Day1 as a wolf in this game! I certainly wouldn't entirely discredit even brutal wolf-on-wolf from her.

[Thinlómien]

Btw about QT -

there's still a nice innocent majority there (or, nice and nice, not sure dead innocents outnumbering dead baddies is a good thing ) but there's three baddies and Lhuna is the tie breaker, so if the innocents disagree with each other and mess it up, there's a chance the baddies can wrestle control of the QT vote.

This actually possibly more as a reminder to the QT than ourselves.

(Who are probably very well aware of this and thanking me right now for being a Captain Obvious but I still wanted to put this in here. Never overestimate the intelligence of your fellow ww players. )

[Thinlómien]

Also still about QT - if we want to orchestrate some communication deal with them, or if we want to agree to vote BEFORE them, then now would be the time to discuss that.

Meanwhile I'm out because it's late and tbh theoretical ww talk gives me headache

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't have a particular recollection about that, but she has a thing for doing brash things while somehow not appearing quite as brash. Look how she got away with self-voting on Day1 as a wolf in this game! I certainly wouldn't entirely discredit even brutal wolf-on-wolf from her.

It's been quite a long time.

I can see her going with a planned sacrifice if she thought it would help her packmates. Particularly if it bought her mates a couple days of perceived innocence.

It's not impossible, but I find wolf-on-wolf less likely. It felt similar to Huey's lynch, sort of unexpected. She was my preferred choice, but I don't appear to be a trusted figure amongst the living. I don't think Lhuna was considered an option until the QT vote.

It tells me that dead innocents trusted someone here yesterday and Lhuna's lynch took the pack possibly by surprise. It wasn't nearly as hectic as Huey's lynch, but I don't see a pre-planned "sacrifice Lhuna" plot from anyone yesterday.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It's been quite a long time.

I can see her going with a planned sacrifice if she thought it would help her packmates. Particularly if it bought her mates a couple days of perceived innocence.

It's not impossible, but I find wolf-on-wolf less likely. It felt similar to Huey's lynch, sort of unexpected. She was my preferred choice, but I don't appear to be a trusted figure amongst the living. I don't think Lhuna was considered an option until the QT vote.

It tells me that dead innocents trusted someone here yesterday and Lhuna's lynch took the pack possibly by surprise. It wasn't nearly as hectic as Huey's lynch, but I don't see a pre-planned "sacrifice Lhuna" plot from anyone yesterday.

It absolutely felt like it came out of nowhere. There were three other wolves out there. I'd guess that at least one, maybe two voted before the Lhunawagon - Eonwe, Zil, me, Greenie, I'd even put Ka and Pitch in that group - and one or two wolves saw the tide coming and jumped right on board. I think if the wolves were voting at a time when it was still possible to steer the vote - Lalaith, Lommy, Rune, Kath - the Lhunawagon probably wouldn't have felt so seamless. I could see wolf among Shasta, Boro, and Brinn for that reason. I don't have a good sense for which people in each group might have been particularly suspicious, though.

[Eönwë]

I'll share the whole interaction here:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

How do you know that's what happened on Day 1?
Hmm?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm willing to bet G55 and Huey had fun trolling us for 2 days in the QT.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

so presumably you think Zil is innocent too?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

He is not my preferred choice today, because I think we should take the signal from the QT. It's been my argument for several days now. I want to test this proposed voting and signals between here and the QT. Other than that reason, I couldn't say.

It would be a lot easier to argue that this wasn't a slip if it turned out that

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I still think his potential slip the previous Day (where it looked like he knew the identity of two innocents - now proven to be true) would be enough to make me want to make sure if I were a wolf.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

By which I mean Zil was proven to be true. The jury is still out on Brinn and maybe Lommy (depending on how you read the post).

.........this seems like a worse slip that the one you're trying to point out.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Loslote

.........this seems like a worse slip that the one you're trying to point out.

Haha yeah, I typed too quickly and tried to write two sentences at the same time and messed up. It would be hypocritical to tell you to ignore it though given the situation.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Haha yeah, I typed too quickly and tried to write two sentences at the same time and messed up. It would be hypocritical to tell you to ignore it though given the situation.

So like, it could've been a typo. But also, it feels like you came out here toDay on a crusade to convince us that Boro's Seer hints plus the wolves not killing him means he's definitely a wolf. Which feels like the wolves decided he wasn't the Seer, and decided to go after him instead - which would be especially important if the wolves needed a big distraction to take the heat off of them. I am wildly suspicious of you at this point, Eonwe.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

.........this seems like a worse slip that the one you're trying to point out.

-snicker-

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

I think it is interesting that Lhuna , a relatively non-vocal player (at least not great quantities of posts), choses to introduce her theory that there we are dealing with submarine-wolves in a relatively subdued manner. Also she only does so after she has cast a vote fore Eonwe.

I am afraid I don't have an analysis though.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading. Without having read the last two-plus pages or so, I'd probably be voting for Lommy if forced. Let's see if my mind changes any.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

I mean, I did for her first two Days and definitely thought she was suspicious, pretty much down to her involvement in the Kit discussion. I'll carry on now but it'll have to be speedy.

Post 394:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

It just occurred to me... For all intents and purposes, a vote for G55 is still a vote for an innocent (i.e. non-wolf). Maybe it's worth looking at those who voted for G55 as well. So, shamelessly stealing and combining Boro's and Eönwë's lists (with the non-G55 or Rikae votes in double brackets)...

So she then finds me suspicious because she couldn't track my suspicion of G55; thinks Inzil was too confident in his vote for G55 given he hadn't particularly explained his suspicions; leaning innocent on Lottie; thinks Lommy is suspicious I think for being a bit gungho about the lynch of G55; some suspicion of Hui with thoughts of a Hui-Brinn wolf pair; suspicious of Brinn for the 'trap' comment that had come up quite a lot that Day.

Post 398

Originally Posted by Lhuna

No one's asking the real Ranger to come out, and frankly I doubt it needs to be said.

In response to Lottie. I did agree with the sentiment, but my issue was that this was again putting the discussion back into the light.

Post 425

Wait let me see if I get this right. If Legate is innocent it could be easy to build a case against him, so you suspected Pitch because he picked on Legate. Then you eased up on suspecting Pitch because you did not want to be caught in a bandwagon that could be orchestrated by wolves.

I'm just... Lost. Shouldn't one back off from suspecting someone because of what they said, not because you're worried about what others would think if you end up voting for an innocent? Not helping your case here.

Continued suspicion of Brinn. Had Mac, Lommy and Brinn as her possible votes, though she seemed to be almost discounting Mac in the same statement for being too obvious.

Post 431
Votes Lommy. No actual explanation in the vote post. I didn't spot anything very substantial about Lommy bar the stuff about the G55 situation.

Post 661
Mentions about catching the Hui possible slip with the wolf emails comment.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

With 5 wolves I'm not discounting a wolf on wolf even after the Huitrain started to gain serious steam (that did seem to come off left field didn't it?). But based on the voting alone I'm inclined to think Leggie innocent, it doesn't seem reasonable for a wolf to offer his packmate up to be sacrificed when he wasn't in real danger of getting lynched, or to try to convince others to vote for him.

Also, I'm not sure why Shasta appears innocent for holding his vote. It looked incredibly fishy to me, but I probably need a deeper reading for context.

This didn't stand out to me as much different to the rest of the discussion around the Hui votes. Interesting comment on Shasta.

Post 862
Gives her apologies for the no vote the Day before.

Thinks all Eonwe's votes have been suspicious; Shasta for holding his vote around the Hui lynch and flipflopping on sally; Boro for holding his vote on Hui and sort of just throwing in with the crowd on sally.

Post 948
Votes Eonwe.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

My suspicion of him based on his voting pattern stands.

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.

This I think is one of her most explained votes. She isn't wrong about the controversy driven lynches!

Post 956

Originally Posted by Lhuna

The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

Post 959

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Differing Seer tactics, I guess. I certainly wouldn't single one person out as innocent on Day 1.

This came form debating Lommy about what to look for in terms of possible Seer hints.

Comments on the QT vote: Hmm. Interesting.

I've really just pulled the biggest things from each post as I was working through them fast.

I'll have cross posted with everything from 991 onwards.