Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

THIS. Which points to either Mac or Brinn (not both, I think - Mac voted Brinn at a point where the Galwagon was well on the way, no particular danger to him and no need to bus a packmate). Finding out Mac's role will also shed a light on Brinn.

Right now my vote could go to either Mac or Zil.

My inclination would be to vote Zil, but I like this argument for learning more about Brinn's role by voting Mac. I could go either way.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Huin

He seems to be focussing heavily on the people who suspect him, and explaining why that must make them wolves.

I made 7 quotes in that post, 4 of which were from people who suspected me.
I talked about 6 people, 3 of which suspected me, 2 of which I suspect in turn.

Yeah, that post focuses on that a bit more than it should, but your summary is not honest.


Anyway, I’ve been meaning to clear my mind suspicion wise.

Seem innocent
Kath
THE Ka

Seem innocent-ish
Kitanna
Pitch

Wary, but not worried too much
Legate - he seems more scattered than usual, maybe that’s just me
Huin - seems very helpful and productive, but sometimes feels odd
Boro - kind of like that, too
Brinniel - torn right here

Like heck do I know (this is the part I gotta work on trimming down)
Loslote
Lhuna
Inzil
Lalaith
Eonwe
Rune
Sally
Shasta

Alarm bells
Lommy -
Greenie - not because they suspect me (I know I set myself up to be suspected the way I’ve acted), but because the way they do it is sketchy as hell

[Brinniel]

I find myself sort of agreeing with Lottie's suspect list. Should I be worried?

Inzil I have found a bit fishy from the start, and toDay's posts aren't helping.

I did not like Boro's vote yesterDay or his behavior toDay. It's awfully bold of him to presume I'm a wolf based on reasons outside of my posting - and I wouldn't rule him out as a bold wolf.

Mac I'm a little more torn about. There are some posts of his I actually like, including his thoughts on Greenie. However he seems nervous toDay, which is generally suspicious. And I'm also still a bit wary of his posts from the second half of yesterDay.

[Macalaure]

Inzil and Lottie have the highest post count so far. How did they end up under my radar? Reread Inzil’s posts and…

Inzil chattered a lot on various strategies and general things at the beginning yesterDay. Even when he does put out some suspicions, they don’t seem very heavy. This could point to a wolf going with the flow and not bugging anyone, but I feel like a wolf would be more self-conscious about seeming too fluffy.

ToDay he starts out feeling reasonable to me, but the Kitanna/ranger/wolf stuff is a… surprising path to go down on. He thinks Rikae was targeted as seer but doesn’t seem to draw any conclusions from that.

Half an eyebrow raised, mostly because he just doesn't feel sinister to me, despite everything.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Inzil and Lottie have the highest post count so far.

Zil has one of the highest post counts? o.O How is that possibly true?

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Zil has one of the highest post counts? o.O How is that possibly true?

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

His post about Zil doesn't feel like a full on distancing attack, though. It felt more like laying groundwork, since Mac will probably have to vote for Zil eventually, but I didn't think it was a full on "Look, we can't possibly be packmates" kind of attack.

[Kitanna]

A 15 minute break is not enough time to do anything.

Originally Posted by Pitch

THIS. Which points to either Mac or Brinn (not both, I think - Mac voted Brinn at a point where the Galwagon was well on the way, no particular danger to him and no need to bus a packmate). Finding out Mac's role will also shed a light on Brinn.

I agree with this assessment and think a lot of light will be shed.
I am leaning more toward Mac based on my assessment earlier, but I don't feel overly confident in casting that vote. Too bad Day isn't 48 hours, then maybe I could catch up.
My biggest problem is, there are some loud people I haven't been able to comb through. Huin, Pitch, Boro, Lottie, and Legate all stand out as people I think I should look at closer.
Huin has come off as level-headed and reasonable throughout, but every so often there's a comment as I skim that makes me raise an eyebrow.
Boro, from past experience I know him to be wily (heh heh heh), but I haven't paid him much heed beyond his "boo lists" followed by lists posts.
Legate, had slight suspicions of him because of his post #88, that rubbed me wrong, but other things came to light after that, forcing him from my mind.
Pitch, same thing with Legate. I voted for him because he was my most likely candidate at the time and then toDay, I haven't dedicated time to him.
Lottie, I just let her float under my radar this whole time. Which could be said for Rune and Lommy too.

[Huinesoron]

Okay, as stated back in #354, I don't know if I'll be around at all later. Since I might be, I don't want to vote now, but in case I'm not, I have a 'emergency late early vote' post stored up on my phone for +-Mac.

If I post anything else between now and DL, you won't be seeing that post, because I'll have had time to see what's changed.

X-post edit: Mac, Zil's post-count is suspicious to me because in my head he's quiet, meaning what he's been doing is flying well under the radar. Quickly rereading your post, I'm seeing a lot of 'both no and yes' from you as well. Not a full accusation, but maybe as much as you thought you could safely do.

hS

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Zil has one of the highest post counts? o.O How is that possibly true?

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

hS

To quote Pitch... *ping*

Accusing my packmate right before he gets lynched? I'm not accusing him - I said I'm not very suspicious of him! And people wonder why I'm feeling framed!

Not to mention, what does his post count have to do with anything?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

To quote Pitch... *ping*

Accusing my packmate right before he gets lynched? I'm not accusing him - I said I'm not very suspicious of him! And people wonder why I'm feeling framed!

Not to mention, what does his post count have to do with anything?

Gotta agree with Mac for a sec, this post of Huin's was kinda strange. Also they seem to "know" Mac is going to get lynched toDay, which is very I mean sure, Mac has been one of the main suspects toDay but it could still go numerous ways with more than 2h to go and merely a handful of votes cast.


edit: xed with Hui

[Macalaure]

++Thinlómien

Unless something stood out to me from my lengthy list of unknown, I was going to vote for Lommy or Greenie toDay. Lommy makes more sense at this point for obvious reasons. The mere fact that I voted for her probably makes it unlikely for her to gather any additional votes.

People talking as if I'm laying the groundwork for some saving vote is... grinding my gears, shall we say.

Lynch me if you must, I'm going to try and spend the rest of the day getting a clear thought or two and sharing them.

[Boromir88]

Waiting for this QT vote to be known...in the meant time:

A thought I thought last night before bed - a possible reason for a Rikae kill is that they were onto something with their train of thought re: the anti-Brinn wagon. Weigh in, please.~Shasta

That's why I was focusing in on the 2 wagons.

Huey, Lottie, and Inzil all remarked caution against a Brinn-wagon. Which I also found suspicious. It's almost like a wolf/wolves trying to appear reasonable in "hey let's not bandwagon."

Lottie and Inzil had previously established reasons for suspecting G55 and voting her. Which is fair enough, but still pretty convenient for a wolf to be in there advocating against a Brinn-wagon, even if Brinn is not a wolf.

Edit: crossed with Nog posting the QT vote. Great. Not what I was expecting or wanted to see.

[Macalaure]

If you think I'm a wolf, by all means, vote for me.

If you want to lynch me just get info on others... that's terrible and plays right into the wolves' hand. ToMorrow everybody will say "Oh dear, Mac was an ordo, but hey, he was acting so suspicious you can't fault anyone for voting for him." and it was a waste of a lynch.

*scolds*

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Sorry busy workday, traffic and a baby that wouldn't sleep got has kept me busy.

I will do my best to get up to speed, and post shortly.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A bit of a list to sort my thoughts...

TOWARDS-THE-RED-END-OF-THE-SPECTRUM-ZONE:

Huinesoron - I said above, is the sort of "I am being very sensible with - possibly - occasionally leaving accusations around in the metaphorical form of unfinished sentence". The consistency of their yesterDay's suspicion would be a plus, on the other hand the vote yesterDay was one of those "I will wait what happens and act accordingly" - which however is something many people would do, regardless of role.

Lottie - explanations accepted, still, my misgivings remain. Now she again did the same thing by basically posting a list of three people she could vote accompanied by something that could be also read as "here, pick out of these, I'll follow suit".

Brinn - remains here, even though similar case to Kit. Although it needs to be said, I dislike how suddenly all the suspicion against her disappeared at the expense of toDay's new suspects. If she's a Wolf and the whole point of everything was to turn people away from her, then it seems to be working.

Lommy - this slid here; I was getting an off-vibe from some of her posts every now and then. I remember at one point I had this brainwave about her and Boro both being Wolves, but I can't for the life of me find anymore why it was. Her very zealous going after Mac is interesting (mainly because Mac leaves me confused rather than suspicious, but whatever), more interesting is her timing of the vote - enough before the QT vote. It sure is a way to avoid having one's vote compared to the QT vote. It may also be a way to send a signal to the Cobbler?

Kitanna - like I said, her lists have made me think better of her, but I am not letting her an absolution just because of that.

Zil - kind of an enigma, and I really didn't like the discussing-Kitanna posts. Keeping an eye out.

Mac - I have absolutely zero idea whether he had just gone crazy-obsessed with himself or what. I would not vote him based on that, but I need to re-check all his posts again, if it's possible.

Greenie - she has been posting this and that way, but there is still something about her I perceive as off.

MIDDLE ZONE:

Pitchwife - not leaning particularly either way. I did not like his and Zil's discussing-Kitanna posts, but his other posts leaned more innocentish than Zil's.

Lhuna - posted some fishy-looking stuff here and there, but I am unable to judge.

Boro - some weird stuff too, but nothing too incriminating.

Eönwë - I should be keeping an eye on him because he seems to be gliding massively under the radar. Also I don't really get some of his reasoning. But ugh, too many people to keep an eye on.

Lalaith - zero idea and I was kinda uneasy about her. If I ever have time, should look into her posts more.

TOWARDS-THE-GREEN-END-OF-SPECTRUM-ZONE(-and-I-know-that's-not-a-thing-in-physics)

Kant - is the most sensibly-posting person in the game and I agree with her about 90% of (at least the generic) stuff, no reason to suspect whatsoever.

Marx - been okay, consistently, nothing much changed since yesterDay.

The KA - awfully long posts, but nothing that would make me uneasy much.

Shasta - decent, nothing to add at the moment.

EDIT: x-ed with somewhere near the start of the page

[Loslote]

And Mac's reactions to Huin are feeling more innocent now, and Huin's last couple of posts are feeling a little more like a salesman..... I'm less enthusiastic about a Mac vote after seeing how he's defending himself, which doesn't feel desperate, more annoyed. I think I'm leaning towards Zil instead, I'm too torn on Mac.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, if Mac is a wolf, he clearly started the Day with the mindset that he's a lost cause because Rikae's death points to him anyway so perhaps he could then at least do his packmates a service by trying to attract as much attention as possible? I still don't understand why macwolf would be this paranoid/suicidal, but I see even less reason for ordomac to act this way.

That is a possibility, that Mac has weighed the chances of survival and rehearsed his actions with compatriots. Rikae's death also points to who they were most suspicious of as well near the end of Day 1. Would they want to be as associated to Mac though knowing this?
Besides Mac, Brinn was another who toDay put out that due to Rikae's removal overNight and their vote, that it was a frame to sway players to think that Brinn was a wolf who needed to be saved by removing Rikae's further suspicion. I'm not inclined to think the wolves wouldn't think that far ahead themselves.

...

I've gone back and looked a little bit more at who was focusing on Mac's statements and posts about himself.

Originally Posted by Greenie, Post #346

Second, even if the wolves would kill just to frame somebody, he ignores the possibility that this might implicate someone other than himself. This is very close to how Brinn, too, is convinced that the kill was engineered just to frame her.
[…]Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent. But I also have a hard time seeing them as fellow wolves.

'he ignores the possibility that this might implicate someone other than himself'.
Which might just be the point. Pushing a Macwagon sounds like a safe vote for the wolves, whether he is one of their number or no. Which makes me wonder if the wolves are stumped on other players like Pitch or Kit?

Originally Posted by Hui, Post #417

And yes, there are more details, but with the amount of words that have been thrown around you can build some kind of case against everyone. The fact remains that his case against Greenie relies heavily on 'this is exactly how I’d expect a Green wolf to act'.

Mac mentions in #331 that he 'got some fire late yesterDay from Greenie' and believes Green would push for a vote for him toDay.

Greenie in #341 has no overt criticism of Mac's claims or comment. Mostly plays along in quotes.

Brinn in #343 summarizes Mac's #111 post, states he starts to suspect Brinn. Doesn't agree that Rikae killed off was to explicitly frame Mac.

...

Maybe I'm hung up on details and still suspicious from the Day before, but I find it rather interesting that Brinn brings up what is obvious about the Rikae framing for her, then simmers down on it to weigh in on Mac's suspicious framing stories. Speaks of possibly nudging a fellow to lay off one story and go focus on another to drive a bandwagon for innocents who are at a loss with their vote.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Unless they were counting on that if one of them got lynched, this would give the other a free pass?

I could see it, an obvious play that's too obvious to be believed, so is an excellent cover... but I'm wondering why it's being pointed out.

Originally Posted by Legate to Mac, Post #348

Seems to me her attitude was simple to create possible discussions in which Wolves could jump at people or innocents could misjudge people or whatever. Even if G55 wasn't sure whether Rikae was innocent or not, she could simply trust the WWs to sort it out.

As for her mentioning you - it may be nothing more and nothing less than wanting to drag more people into the debate: either you, because you already "showed interest", or to alert others that they should participate as well. Framing or not framing you she would leave for you to sort out - if you were a Wolf, you'd probably make sure you didn't get too muddled in this (which you didn't), if you weren't, then good riddance.

'would leave for you to sort out' and the reasons given are extremely insightful. Does it make me slightly suspicious of Legate? Yes.
I also know him to deliberate this way, so it appears as safe and not unusual.

Originally Posted by Post #455 (Legate)

Mac - I have absolutely zero idea whether he had just gone crazy-obsessed with himself or what. I would not vote him based on that, but I need to re-check all his posts again, if it's possible.

Reasonably cannot fault Legate on this deduction, since this was one of my own first suspicions about Mac.

Originally Posted by Kit

Mac seems to be working overtime to get the "they thought Rikae was the seer and wanted to frame me" off the ground. I do not like it. It's possible to say the wolves looked for someone to frame up and that's why Rikae was chosen, but I think the more likely explanation is they thought in light of G55 dying a cobbler, Rikae would potentially be assumed innocent.

Yes, along with some additional help it seems from Brinn and slightly from Loslote.

Originally Posted by Loslote, Post #401

I am very concerned by Mac's response to the Night kill. It feels to me like he was very prepared to insist that it was a frame job, not a Macwolf killing a possible Seer, almost like he knew it was coming and had a whole Night to work up the paranoia. He is definitely high on my suspect list.

The tone in this is a bit polished. Of course we all want to get our ideas across correctly, but a bit of distance from subject and lack of contractions. Lottie has answered questions directly and in a timely manner so it's a mix up between these rather polished responses and then more familiar ones. It's giving me some suspicion this isn't just a tactic to skirt the radar.

Originally Posted by Loslote, #294

Greenie mentioned yesterDay that Mac's analysis post of Brinn reads like someone talking themselves into suspecting someone else, which most often happens when a wolf is looking for a reason to suspect an innocent. So I definitely don't trust him at this point.

Originally Posted by Loslote, #432

My inclination would be to vote Zil, but I like this argument for learning more about Brinn's role by voting Mac. I could go either way.

This sounds like changing one's words to something softer to placate, test the waters, and quietly push a notion across the table. It's rather safe and much too consistent.

++Loslote

As I've ruminated in earlier posts and this one, I wanted to take a hard look at those mentioning Mac's behaviour, perhaps not committed, but throwing it out there enough times to spark more interest and make other players focus in on it. When it comes to wagons over the 'Rikae-framing ploy of wolves', you could just as easily push Brinn since they mentioned the same sentiment. Though, I start to see that the Brinn framing wagon is backed away from as if wolves were shaking two rattles in our faces and seeing which one we prefer and Brinn wasn't drawing as much eyes as Mac since she stopped giving as much a performance.

I'm not voting for Mac, because it's too obvious and appears as if to me at least, he's being subtly coached to take a fall. If he's a wolf doing it as others have mentioned, then it's because it's likely over a consensus with fellow pack mates and scripted. If he's innocent, then pretty much the same for the wolves as he's a convenient 'suspicion' from Rikae the previous Day that they know player's would have itching in the back of their minds. I'm not interested in being corralled into a bandwagon, even by the fairest words.
In short, I'm sticking to my earlier questions on identifying who is pushing for Mac, consistently, subtly at times, and buried here and there. I just don't see a lot of information to be revealed about others from just picking Mac, as he is his most and loudest trumpeter.