Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You know, if G55 hadn't brought up the topic of a no lynch D1 this would be about the most non-committal thing you could possibly say. (As in, when can we ever afford not to try to lynch a wolf?)

I mean, you're not wrong. I didn't think G55's mentioning a no-lynch was worth strongly disagreeing with, but I did want to make it clear I was not in favor of it. I also thought that would be pretty clear in context, though maybe I underestimated Day 1 jumpiness.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I mean, you're not wrong. I didn't think G55's mentioning a no-lynch was worth strongly disagreeing with, but I did want to make it clear I was not in favor of it. I also thought that would be pretty clear in context, though maybe I underestimated Day 1 jumpiness.

I like this too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's probably enough content to make it look like I'm participating.

(Er, wait, what? )

And now I'm heading to bed. I likely won't be around until a few hours before DL, but I should be here then.

I'll leave you with this to have fun discussing - if I were to vote right now, it would be for Lommy.

Good night!

[Rikae]

Oh ... hello! I'm sorry, I've just been busy making these masks. They have pockets!

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure

[Brinniel]

On Legate's post's about the fake votes...
Is it suspicious? Perhaps, but not necessarily. If he's evil, he's being rather bold, and if he's innocent, a wolf could use his posts to build a case against him. Then again, there could be no wolves involved and they are just quietly letting this play out.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I do believe there's only five remaining players who have not yet posted - which means odds are that there's at least 2-3 baddies hiding among the current posts. The problem I have with Day 1 is that without a track record from a previous Day, I tend see more people as innocent than guilty. Which I guess makes sense; after all, most of us are in fact innocent.

So, let's try this backwards...

So far I find Lommy to be the most genuine. She's only posted a few times early on, however, I do find her to be sensible and am agreeing with what she has to say.

THE Ka also seems level-headed to me and I'm leaning towards innocentish.

As for the other side of the scale, it's still too early for me to feel any strong suspicions, but based on hunch and posts I've seen, I am slightly more wary of: Inzil, Pitchwife, G55

Now time for sleep...it is far too late!

[Galadriel55]

So I got woken up in the middle of the night by a spam call, and so here I am. Again.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

So did Lady Macbeth.

I.e. The more you wash your hands, the more suspect you should be?

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

That's probably enough content to make it look like I'm participating.

(Er, wait, what?)

As this will probably make a difference with later analyses, are we to assume you have not read past the last quoted post yet? Or just didn't have time for a more detailed comment?

Originally Posted by THE Ka

I was wondering about it too, but did some extensive combing through the discussion thread and you're correct

So I was still wrong. I thought I looked through all of Nog's posts. Evidently not.

Originally Posted by Ka

Thinking more on the mechanics of this, so if I'm correct and not too tired, on the second Night the QT will only have 1 player there to cast a vote?

D1 + N2 = 2 players to vote on D2. I believe the thread is inactive at Night, and in any case voting only happens during the Day.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

You’re arrested for Gate-breaking, and Tearing up of Rules, and Assaulting Gate-keepers, and - errr, that is, you're accused of Generalizing, Exaggerating, and Deliberately Misinterpreting and Misrepresenting Other Posts. I challenge you to defend your statements!

Originally Posted by Rikae

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

Assuming the QT have an innocent predominance, would it not be the innocents who would prefer to wait for the QT vote?


Aaaand back to bed for me. Even the hardy Men of Dor-lomin need their rest.


Edit: xed with Brin.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

You’re arrested for Gate-breaking, and Tearing up of Rules, and Assaulting Gate-keepers, and - errr, that is, you're accused of Generalizing, Exaggerating, and Deliberately Misinterpreting and Misrepresenting Other Posts. I challenge you to defend your statements!

Defend, hm? Just jokingly summarizing the initial conversation. I was curious to see what sort of reaction it would get, though.

Assuming the QT have an innocent predominance, would it not be the innocents who would prefer to wait for the QT vote?

I was referring to not voicing serious suspicions before the QT vote, which would make for a very unproductive day, no trails, lazy justifications. and a good environment for wolves to hide, which is why (I hope) innocents will avoid doing it.

[A Little Green]

I had forgotten the level of crazy this place can reach! <3

Originally Posted by Gal

Assuming the QT have an innocent predominance, would it not be the innocents who would prefer to wait for the QT vote?

Nope. Even with an innocent-majority QT, it would be pretty short-sighted for innocent villagers to wait for a Cutie vote and make their decisions based on it. I mean, sure, if the only Cuties are innocent you can trust they won’t vote for an innocent person on purpose, but while they might have conversations we’re not privy to, they don’t know anything more than we do. (This is barring the existence of a Cutie Seer, obviously, in which case I agree Cutie votes should have more weight in our decision-making.) The reason I’m saying this is that it strikes me as an easy place to hide as a wolf – “Oh sorry I voted for an innocent, I was just following the innocent Cuties’ lead!”

That said, the whole brouhaha about fake voting a few hours before actual voting doesn’t make sense to me either. As Ka and Mac pointed out, consistency is easier for a wolf than an ordo. They already know everyone’s alignment (except for the cobbler) and can make a decision on who to go for and stick with it. Which would be a silly thing to do as an ordo, especially early on in the game. You’re supposed to change your mind about people in light of better arguments or evidence. I’d be wary of any strategy that assumes consistency is a sign of innocence. Not to mention the logistics of arranging two deadlines with 22 villagers in different time zones

Originally Posted by Inzil

Don't many do this anyway, as in saying whom they suspect and might vote for? And those who don't, voting quickly and seemingly haphazardly, are rightly questioned.

Yes! I appreciate the sentiment behind the fake-votes-before-actual-votes -plan – wanting people to state who they suspect and why already before they actually vote for somebody. But don’t we already do that? I mean, if a player just out of the blue jumps on a bandwagon right before deadline without having previously suspected the bandwagonee (is that a word? Is now) or at least explaining why they’re suspecting them now, they’re pretty much committing werewolf suicide.

I also disagree with Gal about lists being vague and useless. I personally find them quite helpful; without them it’s easy to stick to talking about the loudest, most controversial villagers and topics and let others fly under the radar completely. This tends to serve wolves better than innocents since odds are at least some of them are among the quiet, less attention-seeking crowd. I’m not saying everyone should do lists, just that I think they can be just as revealing as fake votes (if not more).

edit: x-ed with Eonwe! *waves*

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

You’re arrested for Gate-breaking, and Tearing up of Rules, and Assaulting Gate-keepers, and - errr, that is, you're accused of Generalizing, Exaggerating, and Deliberately Misinterpreting and Misrepresenting Other Posts. I challenge you to defend your statements!

Actually, you know what?

What was I supposed to be deliberately misrepresenting? G55, you never did answer that.

[Pitchwife]

I'd actually be surprised if there isn't at least one wolf among Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie. The later on the Pitchwagon, the likelier.



G55 is all over the place, fairly confrontational, sometimes eyebrow-raising (about Urwen/Maeglin: really?). Her all-out attack on Rikae just now does sound a lot like passionate innocent though and makes me feel better about her.
Paradoxically, so does Rikae's response so far.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

It was said in a joking tone, but I was dead serious about you being inaccurate and exaggerating. The most inaccurate thing about Mac you've addressed as an "oops, don't know how that got there" which sounds innocent but is still EXTREMELY unhelpful, since it sticks incorrectly in people's memories. When did Zil cast accusation on Legate as being a wolf? Find me that post, please, because I don't see one. What you said about Lommy - seriously?

I get that it's been part joke, but it's also so dangerous to half-seriously summarize things with such blatant exaggeration and inaccuracy, because again this is how it sticks in people's minds. Moreover, it's how people (especially yourself) can easily justify votes and suspicion later on - based on incorrect summaries. I can argue about the statements involving me as well, except that would be biased and there is sufficient to be said without it; the exception is the first statement, cause I can't recall where I "concluded" we need to lynch a wolf (I recall Lommy's post that you refer to but not mine).

So yes. A subtle diversion / tweaking of how people remember the events is not at all beyond your posts' potential achievements. Throw some unsupported shade on people, then dismiss half of it as a joke and half of it as an oopsy daisy, and the post gets forgiven but the shade remains. Actually, it was so bombastically inaccurate I am surprised only Mac called you out on it except for me.

(for ease of discussion for everyone else, we are both talking about #69.

Okay, so, let's actually look at this post, then, shall we?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh ... hello! I'm sorry, I've just been busy making these masks. They have pockets!

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure

This was still very early on Day 1, and frankly, I am not sure what in this post you think is so inaccurate. Is it a bit tongue in cheek? Yeah, maybe. But I'm pretty sure everything Rikae summarized actually was part of the early banter and tentative strategy talk. If you were a wolf, I could see you not wanting to focus on the other members of the G55-Legate-Pitch tangle, and wanting to try to start up a distracting bandwagon. I honestly don't really see the motivation for an ordo to devote this much energy towards a suspicion that isn't really built on much of anything. If we were doing the bonus vote, I would definitely be voting for G55 at this point.

[Huinesoron]

Am now stuck on my phone, so this is going to be a bit fractured.

Originally Posted by G55

Speaking of hypothetical ideas, this scenario kinda came into my mind last night. So, it's the EndGame, and alive are Wolf, Hunter (hunting the Wolf), and Ordo. Ordo dies. Wolf devours Hunter, but Hunter takes down the wolf. Does either side win?

Is it just me, or is hypothetically contemplating possible Wolf victories not entirely the action of an innocent villager?

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm not even saying that there*isn't*a wolf among them - it's possible - but I don't like the way this is gaining momentum.

We're, what, three and a bit hours from deadline? There's been a few other suspicions around, but I haven't seen anyone (Besides maybe you, but see below) strike more than one or two people as dodgy other than on general feel. The GLP has kind of drowned the rest out; I think the best evidence we have on everyone else might actually be their reactions to it all? I'll try and have a look later.

Originally Posted by Mac

Translation: "I'm trying to frame an innocent but I don't want to get my own hands dirty, can someone help me out?"*

To be honest I still lean against you being a wolf. I'm willing to be persuaded by the evidence - but I was mostly hoping for a wolf to stick their neck out too far in manufacturing said evidence.

It does look like I over-read the amount of discussion there was(n't) of you, so I think that's probably a blind alley.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Huin*then says*Lommy*seems to have eased off a bit, and later speculates if it’s a coincidence that she seemed to appear just to defend herself and then disappear again when he seemed satisfied with her explanation. I’m not sure what to make of any of this, but I think it merits more attention than it got.

By 'eased off', I mean that her explanations struck me as less suspicious in presentation than her previous behaviour. But as she says - sometimes she leans into the stereotypes, so presumably she can lean out of them at need?

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I’m as interested (if not more) in other people’s reactions to those three as in the trio themselves.

This. (I think already said this in this same post, actually.)

Okay, I think I've caught up with the ever-moving present. I feel like the Day has split into three phases: phase 1 being the actual discussion over the fake votes idea, phase two being reactions to and suspicions over the parts people played in it, and now phase 3 is suspicion over those reactions. I want to reread phase 2, because I think phase 4 (analysing the current suspicions) is likely to be too deep down the rabbit hole: we'll all be looking at so many levels of info that you could form a plausible suspicion of everyone!

hS, as of post 149