Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I guess it's just that she hasn't been very involved. That could also be said for the ones I said I would consider for a lynch.

Wait, now that confuses me - because you said you can't see her as Conspirator, but it is because of reasons which, in case of others, don't cause the same conclusion? ??

Originally Posted by Loslote

First off, I regret to inform you that I will be even less available than I had hoped toDay. It turns out tonight is going to be the only clear night all week, so I have to run an observing session for the class I'm TAing - which means I will have to leave an hour before DL, and won't have as much time in between classes as I thought I might.

But you will be able to send in a lynch vote during the Night, if we elect you so?

Originally Posted by Loslote

Since I don't know how much I'll be on, I will say that I do think we need to start lynching - the numbers for the passive scenario are no longer in our favor,

Basically agreed, but just a remark with looking at Kuru's numbers - if we still get at least one more save (and have living Gifteds, of course), it is still possible for us to win by the numbers (since if the numbers are equal, the village still wins). I don't however mind lynching toDay. We should, like Nerwen had said, review on Day-to-Day basis.

The problem might be if, like Kuru said, Boro is really at risk of being modfired. That is something we don't really need at all. But we shall see. There are still several Days ahead of us.

I would be okay with the lynch being either of those names that have been brought up - Lalaith, on review, really strikes me as a possibility of a quiet Wolf. Zil concerns me, but like I said earlier, at least he is active. About Lommy it is hard to say. I would not dramatically object to it, because it is a possibility. Maybe I would prefer others. In any case I would hope to see her and Lal (and others, like Boro and Shasta) to post soon.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I would also like to remove my name from consideration for Rep toDAY.

I have been smote by foul humors and the last thing we need is for somebody to counter-claim and then have a huge mess with that and having my name in the mix for Rep at the same time.

Reasonable point, even though I don't think it very likely. (Btw if this is all a scheme to gain our trust, what a scheme.)

EDIT: x-ed after Kuru's post

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But you will be able to send in a lynch vote during the Night, if we elect you so?

Yes, I just won't be around *at* the deadline.

Originally Posted by Legate

I would be okay with the lynch being either of those names that have been brought up - Lalaith, on review, really strikes me as a possibility of a quiet Wolf. Zil concerns me, but like I said earlier, at least he is active. About Lommy it is hard to say. I would not dramatically object to it, because it is a possibility. Maybe I would prefer others. In any case I would hope to see her and Lal (and others, like Boro and Shasta) to post soon.

I would be okay with Lalaith, if that's what people agree on. I would prefer Lommy, but I find it highly likely that they are packmates, so I think we probably will end up needing to lynch both eventually.

[Kuruharan]

I would like to ask everyone, if at all possible, to post a player analysis some time in the near future and not wait until the tail end of the DAY to do so...or fail to do player analysis at all.

We know there are Innocents in the Unknown column so please be helpful and share your thoughts. If we lynch toDAY we need to do our best to make sure we get it right.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but for the Unknown Innocents it is in your own self-interest to do so.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Wait, now that confuses me - because you said you can't see her as Conspirator, but it is because of reasons which, in case of others, don't cause the same conclusion? ??

Well, she has also expressed some confusion about the roles similar to what I've felt, though admittedly that could be a ploy. I'd think though a baddie might not appear so 'at sea'.

[Lalaith]

Sorry, work and differing time zones have necessitated a late arrival toDay .But anyway, I’ve been thinking about our no-shows and the effect they might have had on game play.

I agree that the assumption should be Cab was innocent.

Kuru

Yes, that’s been an assumption lots of people have made, but then I got thinking, what if he'd been a wolf? I remembered someone had thought there were just two wolves - I went back and checked, and it was Legate . So then I thought, lets say McCaber was a wolf who hadn’t showed up – might this be a slip from a fellow wolf who knew they were only two around?
I know he's a top-grade player and so unlikely have made such a careless slip were he a wolf. But you never know. Legate seems to be very widely trusted at the moment. I know he carried out the will of the village on the first day and I do think he appears very helpful, but I don’t want to trust him blindly - I personally would much prefer Lottie as representative.

Then there’s our current sick patient, Kuru. No-one has come forward to counterclaim against him, but might the no-show of Boro yesterday tempt the wolves to risk breathing on him (Boro I mean) and then sending one of their number in to make a false claim? There is no reason that the wolves might not assume what most of the rest of us did, that Nerwen would be saved by the herbalist last night, in which case their situation would be getting desperate and they’d be prepared to take risks in order to get a kill.
An appearance by Boro himself would therefore be very welcome for a number of reasons.

[Lalaith]

Reading over everyone's posts today as well...

However, I am thinking also another thing - that Inzil seems to be very happy now that Nerwen, whom he suspected yesterDay, died, to start immediately quite aggressively question Kuru.

Yes, this was something that I noticed as well.
Gah, none of this fits. Would it work that Zil and Kuru would be in a pack together - or Legate and Zil,or Legate and Kuru? The old wolf-on-wolf bickering routine wouldn't be so needful in this kind of game when there are no role-reveals after death.
I wish everyone would show up so we could at least eliminate Kuru more categorically from suspicion. On reflection I do think his reluctance to be rep does make his claim seem more credible.

[Thinlómien]

First off, a general apology for being so lame in this game. I have unfortunately discovered why people with adult jobs often drop out of ww games, and being in dark about the rules and the roles is always highly unmotivating to me. When there's nothing you can do and feels like the actual game is in the hands of the wolves and gifteds, I find it really hard to actually focus on the game, especially when there's a gazillion other things happening in my life at the same time. ANYWAY I decided I am trying to try a bit more now, and I'm glad most people seem to finally favour a lynch today. Now, let's get some blood flowing... *insert maniacal grin* *anyway it's Halloween don't look at me*

Originally Posted by Legate

if we choose a trustworthy Rep early enough - I would not be opposed to choosing Lottie again, btw

I will side eye anyone who supports someone else than Lottie. Granted, it's not 100% certain she's a known innocent, but she should definitely not be a suspect priority. Also I don't think it's a problem she's not around at the actual deadline.

I see no reason not to believe Kuru's claim for toDay - we should see soon if he's telling the truth or not. I keep being a little paranoid about something huge going on, probably because the game has been so uneventful on the surface. I mean, we have one dead person who was probably innocent (RIGHT? like there's no way Nerwen could've been guilty? I've spent embarassingly long thinking about this) and one modfire, and everyone else is still here - and half of the village has been very quiet (not that I should really point any fingers there).

I'm a bit worried about Boro not turning up. I think he's most likely to be an ordo given his inactivity, but in that case his modfire will play straight into the wolves' hands, and it would be the second one. That makes me think we should really think our lynch through toDay and play it as safe as we can.

Next up: a list to sort out my thoughts.

[Thinlómien]

Kuru - claims to be last Night's victim, fair enough. I've been conflicted about him all game and this hardly makes it easier as I'm creating scenarios in my head where the wolves targeted absentee Boro to make Kuru "a known innocent" but I don't know how likely that is. I think we should just wait and see and definitely not lynch him toDay.

Lottie - well, if she isn't innocent, the other option is that the wolves targeted McCaber on Night1 and wolf!Lottie went for the opening when McCaber didn't appear on Day1. That would have been a nice stroke of luck for them, and a risky strategy. It's hard to see Lottie as a wolf - if she is, then hats off for the bold play.

Lalaith - I still think she's likely to be innocent given how generally clueless she's been all game - unless the cluelessness is deliberate, but that's a bit of a dirty strategy in my book and I don't know if Lalaith would go for it. I suppose it's still not impossible for her to be a wolf.

Legate - okay now we get to the funny part. First off, no I don't really find him particularly suspicious - he's been helpful, reasonable, open about his thoughts unlike many others. But what I find suspicious is that he seems to have achieved some sort of a known innocent status, and by what exactly?? It would be a very nice wolf strategy to put one of them on a pedestal like that and then keep clapping him on the back like "look at this innocent guy isn't he marvelous". So anyone who gives Legate a free pass gets a massive side eye from this direction.

Dun - to be entirely honest, he keeps occupying my top suspicion slot. He's nothing but fishy, the only thing I'm wondering about is if he isn't too fishy to be fishy, if you get my meaning.

Boro - like I said, a wolf!ordo might feel a little more "honor-bound" to play and assuming he's innocent is going to be the better option if he gets modfired, but the actual truth could be anything. The couple of posts he made didn't really tell me much, and they didn't really scream innocent to me like innocent Boro's posts often do - but it was probably literally two posts.

Shasta - I keep forgetting he's playing at all, he's been so quiet. Busy, shady or suffering from ordoly lack of motivation? Who knows. But looking at my own list, by pure process of elimination I should find him mightily suspicious. We aren't that many in this village, but we do have three wolves (unless McCaber was indeed one - side note, that might have been a reason for Sally to limit the herbalists powers more than she originally planned). Shasta is a much more likely wolf in my book than, well, almost anyone bar Inzil, so I think he bears more looking at than we've done so far.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Good to see at least someone. The above couple of posts make me feel a bit better about Lommy - it feels like her innocent self, and the way of thinking sorta seems like it. It can still go either way, but it made me feel better.

The same goes for Lalaith, to a certain extent.

That would bring me back to considering Inzil for the lynch toDay. Hmm.

Shasta is nowhere to be seen very much. He would be of course a possible Wolf, but I would so much like to see him appear at first, especially as he had promised to come back with some more ideas.

I trust Kuru, I trust Lottie. Boro is nowhere to be seen.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Lottie - well, if she isn't innocent, the other option is that the wolves targeted McCaber on Night1 and wolf!Lottie went for the opening when McCaber didn't appear on Day1. That would have been a nice stroke of luck for them, and a risky strategy. It's hard to see Lottie as a wolf - if she is, then hats off for the bold play.

Wait, this does not make any sense. If the WWs had targeted McCaber on Night 1, he would have died on Night 2. But he died only on Night 3. Like, I can imagine a situation where the WWs would intentionally forgo the first kill in order to make Lottie look good (it's about the only "conspiracy theory" scheme I really consider possible at all so far, but that's also one extra reason for me to entrust Lottie with the vote so far as she seems trustworthy).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here, and will (hopefully) be around until deadline.

I'll go and pull some things to respond to momentarily, but regarding the Herbalist and why I think they're out of power - didn't I already say? There was very little reason not to heal Nerwen if the Herbalist had the power to do so - especially considering the stalling strategy we've implemented. Every blocked kill sets the wolves back seriously - after all, this game has a hard limit on Days. Sally said the amount of power the Herbalist has would be based on the number of people playing - with the game for sure ending on Day 6 and the low number of players, I think it very likely that the Herbalist only had one save. That's not being a pessimist - that's being a realist.

[Kuruharan]

There are some curious harmonies to the posts of Lalaith that I find suspicious.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

but might the no-show of Boro yesterday tempt the wolves to risk breathing on him (Boro I mean) and then sending one of their number in to make a false claim?

And

Originally Posted by Lommy

as I'm creating scenarios in my head where the wolves targeted absentee Boro to make Kuru "a known innocent"

Food for thought.

Originally Posted by Lommy

But what I find suspicious is that he seems to have achieved some sort of a known innocent status, and by what exactly?? It would be a very nice wolf strategy to put one of them on a pedestal like that and then keep clapping him on the back like "look at this innocent guy isn't he marvelous". So anyone who gives Legate a free pass gets a massive side eye from this direction.

Fair enough.

Legate is likely innocent (and at this point in the game, pretty much has to be treated as one) because he was the first to publically advocate the risky and controversial plan of Not Lynching. He stuck to his guns on this point and the plan is/was a tactically and strategically sound one given the parameters of this game. If you want further explanation of why this is so, please go back and review our posts on the subject as I really don’t want to rehash the whole thing here.

Now, it is possible that this is all a cunning plot on his part, but if it is he deliberately set himself a steep challenge by making the game much harder on himself on a fundamental level so if he pulls it off, good on him.

But I don’t think that is at all likely and we can’t behave like it is.

I'm also growing concerned that the ordos are going to end up essentially forfeiting the game through modfiring which would be a very disappointing outcome on an intriguing and as far as I know fairly unique set-up for a game.

EDIT: Xed with Shasta