Where do elves get metal?

[skip spence]

Come on man, you are much too serious, I'm sure Tolkien would tell you the same.

I guess the problem is you are too sure of yourself.

I mean... We all know that Tolkien was a tinkerer, he was trying to make everything fit together as the world grew and was enrichened. Which is why I said that Bill and Bert and Tom don't really fit into the latter, more developed Middle Earth, for some of the reasons you've touched, I understand that.

It's just, your reading that Orcs are some allegoric Alfa-preditor of our society is a bit much really.

EDIT. I do enjoy your speculation though, so please take no offence!

[Zigûr]

We know from The Hobbit that the Orcs of the Mountains used slaves for their manufacturing purposes:
"Hammers, axes, swords, daggers, pickaxes, tongs, and also instruments of torture, they make very well, or get other people to make to their design, prisoners and slaves that have to work till they die for want of air and light."

Perhaps they produced food in the same way, although it's unclear to me where they would have found the land for such agriculture. But one imagines they could not have maintained their extensive, if petty, realms in the Misty Mountains and the Grey purely by raiding the Woodmen and so on.

We do know, however, that "sometimes used to go on raids, especially to get food or slaves to work for them." So perhaps they partially relied on raiding and partially had some subsistence of their own devising. But it does not appear that the Orc-raids, at least insofar as they are depicted in The Hobbit, were altogether regular.

[Marwhini]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Come on man, you are much too serious, I'm sure Tolkien would tell you the same.

I guess the problem is you are too sure of yourself.

I mean... We all know that Tolkien was a tinkerer, he was trying to make everything fit together as the world grew and was enrichened. Which is why I said that Bill and Bert and Tom don't really fit into the latter, more developed Middle Earth, for some of the reasons you've touched, I understand that.

It's just, your reading that Orcs are some allegoric Alfa-preditor of our society is a bit much really.

EDIT. I do enjoy your speculation though, so please take no offence!

They aren't an Allegory, nor are they an Alpha-predator.

They are simply a predatory species, one of many, which happen to coexist alongside man. Technically they are a mixed-predator, where some of their sustenance comes from predation, and some through self-production (but that still does not correct the problem).

As for taking this "too seriously..."

Tolkien tended to do that himself. In addition to p. [I]x[I] of Morgoth's Ring there are half a dozen places in Letters where he talks about the Sciences Internal to Middle-earth, and that these would be just as discoverable as those in our world.

Tolkien admitted his ignorance in these areas. But that doesn't mean those of us who are not ignorant of those Sciences cannot then look to see how they might function given the quote on p. [I]x[I] of Morgoth's Ring. We needn't be IN Middle-earth to do this, any more than we need to be ON an exoplanet to begin learning things about its composition (or any one of thousands of other means of indirect observation and Science).

The simple fact is:

Orcs have to eat. Orcs need to build houses. Orcs need to have children.

These take resources. Those resources take space to produce (space that we have objective measure of, and can predict what we would see given a certain type of population).

As for being "Sure of myself...."

Well... No... I am sure of the numbers I have. But I remain very unsure of many aspects lacking others who are formally trained in the specific sciences who are also as familiar with Tolkien. And, unfortunately, the few who are currently have so little time to devote to it (Such as Dr. DJ Lundt, who did an excellent Meteorological Study of Middle-earth - yet after speaking to him about it, we discovered that he had two major flaws in his study that would have affected localized weather patterns, or generalized weather patterns should the Valar have intervened; as they did in a few events).

Currently, all I have at my disposal who have a science background of some sort (whether hard or soft) is a Medical Doctor who specializes in Genetic Pathologies (helpful for how Morgoth could have managed to affect or corrupt existing species to create the "monsters), a collection of Zoologists, Ornithologists, and Biologists at a couple of Zoos in the USA to help with habitat and population distributions (which includes humans), a Physicist, who only has a couple of days every few months to work on problems dealing with some very esoteric aspects the nature of matter and energy in Middle-earth, and...

Myself, who has formal training in Art History & Comparative Religions and Myths (having studied with Joseph Campbell in the 1980s - this covers Theology, Myth, Sociology, Anthropology, and Religious History), as well as more recent training in the Cognitive Sciences, and Computational & Systems Biology (both interdisciplinary fields, which cover from Linguistics, to Computer Science, Biology, and Neuroscience - The latter of these fields is called "Cybernetics"). I do not yet have a graduate degree in these, as I had to drop out my senior year at UCLA due to old injuries I have causing severe health problems that could still cost me my legs. Otherwise... I would not have the time to devote to this study, and would instead be up to my elbows in epithelial cells and intestinal linings (I was studying how to create synthetic intestines, and gut-tissue).

The goal we are looking for is a Unified Theory to explain Middle-earth, and the associated specific disciplines that would explain its structure. We have a working theory, explained in another post.

As I said in the post no one seems to want to pay any attention to. A LOT of people tend to either not understand what this means, and thus they either simply reject it, or they miss the relevance of certain issues.

MB

[Marwhini]

And I am aware of what Cuckoos are.

My little-sister is an Ornithologist. We do not call Cuckoos outright parasites, because they are not preying directly upon a host-animal. But the behavior of the Cuckoo is parasitic in nature. It is stealing resources from a system that are not the results of its efforts.

The technical term is a "Brood-Parasite:"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brood_parasite

And, no, my point isn't that Orcs subsist solely by plunder, but that plundering is a vital aspect of their character, as is simple mindless destruction (whether they make use of that which they destroy or not).

Nor are they entirely mutually dependent, as is a Cuckoo (The Cuckoo needs the prey population, in the same way that a leech or mosquito needs prey populations. Without them, they cannot reproduce). The Orcs can reproduce without humans, as indeed this is their goal (to wipe them out, and/or enslave them).

But both prior to achieving the goal of Enslaving humanity (or wiping them out), they exist in a relationship as that of predator-prey (We saw that in other human cultures that preyed upon other humans: Pirates, Slave-traders, and Nomadic Warbands).

And whether they are stealing from the humans, elves, and hobbits, or simply destroying infrastructure, that theft needs to be replaced, or accounted for by the prey of the Orcs.

This means that there is a minimum sized population of Humans, Elves, and/or Hobbits that would be required to:

1) Remain alive, and sustainable (even if dwindling, there are relationships that predict the rate of decline, or the rate of growth, or simple equilibrium of the population).

2) Support a given population of Orcs.

These are two different functions.

In the first case, it has to do with an Orc population causing damage to a Human, Elf, and/or Hobbit society, and the letter's ability to recover from it.

And in the second case, it has to do with a Human, Elf, and/or Hobbit population being large enough to support a given Orc population.

This is a Feedback System (and there remain other "nodes" in the system; both those for which I have not yet accounted, and those for which I have accounted - such as the availability of Wild Game, which would affect both Human, Elf, and Hobbit populations, AND the Orc populations).

It is a little difficult to illustrate a Feedback System in text, as they look a little like a computer flow-chart or Neural Network Diagram, but with numbers in the lines connecting nodes to indicate the strength of the relationship, and how it impacts another node.

So, as a sort of simplified Feedback System.

Men <3/1–1/2> Orcs

This would be a simplified feedback system indicating that it takes three Men to support one Orc in two given populations (one of Men, one of Orcs), and that two Orc tends to result in the death of One Man in the process. The first numbers in each set describing the first relationship, and the second number in each set represents the second relationship. You could break this down into two one-way relationships:

3 Men –> 1 Orc
1 Man <– 2 Orcs

But just the basic generalized knowledge we currently have about similar relationships between groups shows that the Human (or Elf, and/or Hobbit) population in Middle-earth would need to be larger than is indicated.

There are suggestions that Tolkien was aware of this in a few of the Letters he wrote concerning the creation of the Map for the LotR not having anywhere near the needed settlements and other details that would have existed, and that it ONLY contained the details relevant to the action within the Book, and a general overall geography.

If I were not in a hospital at the moment, I could reference the letters, as I marked them up for other research I am doing on Physiognomy in Middle-earth, yet much of the information seems applicable here as well.

MB

[Nerwen]

Thank you Marhwini, but I specifically referred to "brood parasitism" by name in my previous post. Therefore it should be clear that I know what it is. [And the very article you link uses the specific terms "parasite" and "host", as do all the more technical articles I have read, so I'm not sure what the quibble is over.]

Moving on.

Isn't this all pure conjecture and assumption on your part? You have no actual data, right?

[Marwhini]

Just as a Start:

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/gl...predation.html

The Lotka-Volterra Equations detail a rather detailed relationship between types of predation, of both predator and prey-populations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka–Volterra_equations


And aside from the Generalized Lotka-Volterra Equations, there is the issue of Mutualism between a predator and prey population when modeling the population sizes and relationships:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual...tical_modeling

In the latter example, this is where the two populations share one or more traits, or functions in the environment.

All of these are dependent upon a Carrying Capacity of the Environment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacity

...and the Lotka-Volterra Equations show the interrelationships of these Carrying Capacities.

Also important is the "Impact of Human Activity on the Environment" described by Dr. Paul Erlich's I = PAT equations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_%3D_PAT

In terms of Middle-earth, this is a very important term, as that of Humanity and Elves (or Hobbits) needs to be greater than that of Orcs, lest you wind up with a world where the Orcs quickly destroy the Carrying Capacity of the entire "planet" (or habitable regions of the world with which we are concerned).


I = PAT

is:

Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology

In Middle-earth, this impact is nearly non-existent save for in the regions of:

• The Shire.
•*Dale/Erebor
•*Mordor
•*Gondor
•*Rohan
•*And likely in Harad and Rhûn as well, since we are told these areas are fairly highly populated.

But given that 'A' and 'T' are so low, the Impact isn't very great, and thus the effect upon Carrying Capacity isn't hugely affected (which is not to say that it is not affected at all - over time the Impact can be cumulative).

I=PAT, though, can really only be significantly considered once you have an idea of GDP of an area.

This can be estimated in Middle-earth based upon Medieval Data about what was required for a typical person to live, and then estimating the populations of the regions based upon the population models created by the Lotka-Volterra models

Do you need anything else?

If you have your own Foundational Postulates and Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates, please feel free to elaborate.



MB

[Marwhini]

And, as a point about some of the assumptions of the Lotka-Volterra Models.

It is possible to including Initial Conditions for different assumptions.

Such as that the Prey Population does not have an exponential Population Growth, and instead has some other function that covers population growth.

These starting conditions affect the total population sizes of both the Prey and Predators.

In the Competitive and Mutual models, we can also show relationships where both populations prey upon each other (many Aquatic populations are like this, as are human populations, to which the models also apply).

Edit: Parasitic relationships can be different than Predator-Prey, depending upon the type of Parasite. For instance Mosquitos can have populations that are hundreds of billions the size of their host populations.

And it may be the case that we need to build an entirely new model for the relationship between Orcs and Humans than the existing Predator-Prey model.

But the existing Mutualistic or Competitive Models seem to be flexible enough to deal with the relationship we see between Orc and Human in Middle-earth, where the two Populations are Mutually dependent upon a single set of resources, Yet compete for those resources, while Humanity largely falls Prey to Orcs (a relationship that does not exist in reverse - Humans, Hobbits, nor Elves in Middle-earth will capture Orcs to use either as forced labor, or as a source of food itself).

This is an area where we have yet only looked at a very generalized relationship, as it is a long way down our list of priorities in getting an Operationalized Middle-earth functioning as a Model.

MB

[skip spence]

Marwhini,

While I remain sympathetic of your quest for a unified theory to explain Arda and Middle Earth I hope you realize that the result can only be another work of fiction, unlike say the mathematics of Pythagoras, or the physics of Newton or Einstein's special theory of relativity.

Much like you, many of us here enjoy speculation in how Middle Earth 'worked'. The first and foremost Tolkien scholar and son, Christopher, shared this interest and thanks to his work we have a lot of intriguing material apart from his father's published work. It's fascinating to look at the "white spots" of the maps and imagine what you might find there.

In our real world scholars and scientists, kings and commoners used to do they same. They knew there had to be "something" out there beyond their knowledge, they wanted to learn and understand, but in lack of solid data they used their imagination to fill the unknown. Often they populated the imaginary lands with strange legendary beasts, like unicorns, pygmees, satyrs, dragons etc of course overseen by the mighty Gods. But slowly and surely the white spots of this world have been charted and now we know much more about its nature and natural laws, enough to disprove most of the historical misconceptions.

But unlike the real world we live in Middle Earth is fictional. The white spots on the maps of Middle Earth are unknown, but unlike in the real world there is really nothing there to be found.

Except in the mind and imagination of the reader. A fun pass-time I think, and one that JRRT embraced fully, but please don't forget that your "unified theory of Arda" can never have any relevance in relation to JRRT's actual creation. It is not natural science, only a product of your own imagination and if that is to be of any interest to other readers I suggest that you approach it in a more humble and, well, reasonable manner.

[Morthoron]

Originally Posted by Marwhini

If you have your own Foundational Postulates and Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates, please feel free to elaborate.

*Blinks*

*Blinks again*

Ummm....

And now for something completely different:

Excerpt from Monty Python's Two Towers --

Chapter II: The Rally of Rohan

By now they had made their way into the realm of Rohan, the verdant, rolling land of revisionist Anglo-Saxon horsemen who would have defeated William the Bastard and his nasty Normans at Hastings if, by Tolkien's Francophobic approximation, King Harold and his housecarls had had a standing cavalry; thus, the Anglo-Saxon aristocracy would have remained in England to subjugate, overtax and generally make miserable the lives of the peasantry, rather than have foreigners do the same more efficiently. In any case, the Three Hunters crested a hill and below them lay a green valley where they espied the first sign of trouble. Hundreds of protesters were milling about carrying placards and signs (most of which had X and O symbols, or spatters of paint mimicking writing, as very few folks were literate at the time). The mob was listening to the exhortations of a rather unkempt demagogue trying to rally the masses with his shrill oratory. Stealthily, Aragorn, Legolas and Gimli scrambled down the goat paths that scarred the hillside, and then mingled with the crowd in order to hear what the fuss was all about.

"A spectre is haunting Dunland," the shaggy speaker shouted through a megaphone of sheepskin, "the spectre of Rohirrism!"

"Wha's a spectre?" One old gaffer asked a shrewish hag standing next to him.

" 'Ow should I know?" The shrew replied. "Just quit yer yammerin' an' wave yer sign! I've 'eard they'll be 'andin' out prizes for the most enthusiastic demonstra'ors."

"All the old powers, that of Gondor and Rohan, have entered into an unholy alliance to quench the bright flame of Liberty lit for the Dunlendish people," the orator bellowed with contempt. "Where is the party that would oppose these reactionary adversaries?"

"Yes! Yes! The party!" several oblivious protesters cried. "Where is the party?"

"To this end, the Executive Administrators of the Council of Propaganda and Pasturage, duly endowed with plenipotentiary powers by the General Secretary for Bureacratic Affairs, were sanctioned to form the first Revolutionary Constitutional Congress of DUFF, the Dunland United Freedom Fighters. And by the gracious invitation of Saruman, both of them gathered at Orthanc and completed a Manifesto!"

"Wha's a manifesto?" the geezer wheezed. "Is tha' an Eye-talian dish? Sort 'o' like Manicotti, but wi' pesto?

"I should 'ope so," the hag replied, "I'm starvin'!"

"The history of society has been one of class struggle!"

"Ye got 'at roight, guv'nor," a shepherd shouted. "I aint ne'er made it past first grade, wha' wi' conjugatin' verbs 'n' danglin' me par'iciple at recess!"

"Freeman and slave, lord and serf, in other words, oppressor and oppressed, have continually opposed one another in a nearly uninterrupted fight that each time has ended badly for we, the mute masses. There has been no revolutionary reconstitution of society at large for us - on the contrary, it usually resulted in the utter victory of them what has, as opposed to them what has not. Now Dunland sits alone in chains of degradation; but, at the turn of fortune's wheel, we can become the oppressors and the hated Forgoil of Rohan the oppressed! We can become that which we hate!"

"This is, like, so-o-o-o boring!" a teenage girl whined.

"Like, we should have so gone to the mall," her BFF chimed in.

"I wish they'd serve the manifesto," the gaffer grumbled. "Me tummy's rumblin'."

"To that end, we shall join with Saruman the White, our sorcerous friend and benefactor, who has offered us his wizardly assistance in ridding Dunland of the hated horsemasters. Join us now! Join us in this righteous rebellion! We may be casting off one master for another even more tyrannical despot; but he has such a pleasant, fatherly way of making our gullibility seem noble - almost intelligent. Besides, we shall get a brief glimmer of freedom before our hopes are ruthlessly crushed, which is all we peasants could possibly expect at this juncture in history, given the inadequate means of mass communication only made possible by the printing press, which will not be available, technologically speaking, until the time of Herr Gutenberg. But enough of anachronistic platitudes, what say you, people of Dunland? Shall we fight for freedom, however short-lived?"

There was a prolonged, dumb silence punctuated by sneezing, rheumy wheezing, lip smacking and tubercular coughs. The speaker sighed in defeat. Despite his best efforts and his Ciceronian dialectical rhetoric, he felt he was losing the mob. And so, as with all demagogues past and present, he decided to plumb the depths and cater to the crowd's basest emotions. "Of course, there will be other benefits…" he said with a polished smile.

"Wha' benefits?" the old hag shouted.

"Yes, yes, what's in it for me?" A one-eyed, legless beggar cried as he shifted nervously on his stumps. "Please, I can't stand the suspense!"

"And when do we get our manifesto?" the grizzled geezer grumped. "Will it be at th' party you was mentionin' earlier?"

…"There will be rape and pillage."

And there was a great cheer that arose from the throng, and they immediately fell into beating each other with cudgels, staffs and canes.

"NO, NO, NO!" the orator shrieked through his megaphone. "I was referring to raping and pillaging the people of Rohan!"

"O-o-o-oh!" the bloodied crowd cried in unison and stopped their infighting, except for one stout shepherd who punched the shrewish hag again for good measure.

"Now, I want the folks to my left to start right in on the raping, and the ones on my right to go off and pillage."

"Well, why can't we just do both?" the shepherd shouted in dismay, his staff clinched tightly in his left hand and his other staff now gripped firmly in his right.

The speaker gave the suggestion some thought and then finally shrugged. "Sure, why not!"

The mob screamed in a blood-curdling frenzy and scattered off in all directions to practice their raping and pillaging skills, leaving the Three Hunters alone in the valley.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Morthoron

*Blinks*

*Blinks again*

Ummm....

And now for something completely different:

Excerpt from Monty Python's Two Towers --

...

Haha lovely stuff Morth! I have missed this place.

As for Marwhini, just do what you wanna do I guess. *shrugs*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Marwhini

Just as a Start:

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/gl...predation.html

The Lotka-Volterra Equations detail a rather detailed relationship between types of predation, of both predator and prey-populations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka–Volterra_equations


And aside from the Generalized Lotka-Volterra Equations, there is the issue of Mutualism between a predator and prey population when modeling the population sizes and relationships:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual...tical_modeling

In the latter example, this is where the two populations share one or more traits, or functions in the environment.

All of these are dependent upon a Carrying Capacity of the Environment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacity

...and the Lotka-Volterra Equations show the interrelationships of these Carrying Capacities.

Also important is the "Impact of Human Activity on the Environment" described by Dr. Paul Erlich's I = PAT equations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_%3D_PAT

In terms of Middle-earth, this is a very important term, as that of Humanity and Elves (or Hobbits) needs to be greater than that of Orcs, lest you wind up with a world where the Orcs quickly destroy the Carrying Capacity of the entire "planet" (or habitable regions of the world with which we are concerned).


I = PAT

is:

Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology

In Middle-earth, this impact is nearly non-existent save for in the regions of:

• The Shire.
•*Dale/Erebor
•*Mordor
•*Gondor
•*Rohan
•*And likely in Harad and Rhûn as well, since we are told these areas are fairly highly populated.

But given that 'A' and 'T' are so low, the Impact isn't very great, and thus the effect upon Carrying Capacity isn't hugely affected (which is not to say that it is not affected at all - over time the Impact can be cumulative).

I=PAT, though, can really only be significantly considered once you have an idea of GDP of an area.

This can be estimated in Middle-earth based upon Medieval Data about what was required for a typical person to live, and then estimating the populations of the regions based upon the population models created by the Lotka-Volterra models

Do you need anything else?

If you have your own Foundational Postulates and Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates, please feel free to elaborate.



MB

Thank you for elaborating, but as I said, Marhwini, I'm afraid all you've got there is assumption and conjecture. Equations tell you nothing if you have no numbers to plug into them in the first place.

And no of course I don't have any Foundational Postulates or Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates. C'mon, mate, you are taking yourself, and the subject, far too seriously.

X'd with Marhwini.

[Nerwen]

Marhwini, speculation about Middle-earth is not misguided- it's what the site's for!

Confusing your speculations with fact is very misguided indeed.

[Marwhini]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thank you for elaborating, but as I said, Marhwini, I'm afraid all you've got there is assumption and conjecture. Equations tell you nothing if you have no numbers to plug into them in the first place.

And no of course I don't have any Foundational Postulates or Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates. C'mon, mate, you are taking yourself, and the subject, far too seriously.

X'd with Marhwini.

We have numbers to plug into them (We have Tolkien's estimates for a population of Hobbiton, Gondor, and Rohan; and we have even more precise numbers given in the sizes of the military forces for Gondor and Rohan, which have very specific ratios for an Army:Population for any given period of time - just as a start).

At the very least those are some pretty good estimates.

And we have other estimates we can derive from the size and distances of various settlements.

And there are reasons for "taking this too seriously" (as you put it) that have to do with modeling it as an operational virtual world.

That is more than just turning it into a game (which isn't our intention).

And to do that, you need to have an idea of how things work.

I am taking it no less seriously than did Prof. Tolkien.

MB