Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Nerwen]

So I got caught up with things and haven't had time to do the more detailed analysis of yesterDay I'd planned. So just a few comments.

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Then we have the Nog-voters. Did Boro or Sally ever give reasons for their votes at all? If they did I missed it.

Then we have Form Nilping himself- some seem to think this looks innocent, but really I cannot imagine why anyone, good or evil, would give himself the third vote at that point.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

Originally Posted by mormegil

Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.

I'll third this. There's something wrong about him. Maybe I'm biased by the fact that the last time I was in a game with someone who prattled "helpfully" on and on and on about statistical probabilities, that person turned out to have fur and fangs. (Mac himself must have known that what he was doing was an academic excercise with no real practical value.) And then there's the thing I noticed toDay (#242)- it does seems to me to have that glimpse-of-the-Nightly-discussion vibe.

Edit:x'd since morm at #285; clarification;word left out.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, and I missed you too, my sun in splendour.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My internet came back up, so I thought I'd go back with my newfound ability to quote things and clarify what I was saying about the Nog votes -

Boro - 8:49
Phantom, Lottie - 8:55
Eomer - 8:56
Shasta - 8:57 (crossed with Eomer)
Sally - 8:59

So, Nog ended up receiving the bulk of the votes against him within five minutes of the deadline.

Edit: X'ed with Lottie. Also, when I said "quote" I meant "copy and paste".

[Boromir88]

What's your theory then? If you don't buy Sally's "Rune was killed for looking like a wolf" theory (understandable, I don't either) and you also don't think he was killed because the wolves thought he was a potential gifted, do you have any better suggestions? ~Greenie

As Rune didn't say a whole lot and even with his vote it was for someone he said he didn't want to see lynched (he was in the tie-votes camp), I'm thinking one pack decided to go no trace and are trying to set out an argument to make the reasons to kill Rune look like more and thus steer the lynch today.

Then we have the Nog-voters. Did Boro or Sally ever give reasons for their votes at all? If they did I missed it.~Nerwen

See 164:
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=164

Nog stood out to me as kind of suspicious, just the way he was insisting that he didn't buy my reason for wanting to tie-votes so we don't lynch the Seer, because the odds of lynching the Seer were miniscule. In which case, I'm in the "never give me the odds" camp. I was shooting for a tied-vote, because I think that would have been the best Day 1 choice and with the late voters expressing they didn't want to vote for Agan or Form, I went with someone who I was suspicious of, in hopes there was enough support to tie the vote.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Boro, were you suspicious of anyone else yesterday?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Boro, were you suspicious of anyone else yesterday?

I saw Lommy's side of the argument with Agan, so that made me suspicious of Agan (which today so far her and sally are the ones rising to the top of my suspects. I have to look more carefully what's going onbetween morm and Lottie). However, I was trying to employ a "wait and see" strategy with Agan and I was keeping in mind trying for a no lynch.

I'm disappointed it didn't work out that way, but not devastated as I don't think Nog's lynch cripples us. That is to say, of the 3 dead, I think it's most likely that he's a wolf, but I also don't think we lynched the Seer. I would hope the Dead want to check him on their first chance, because I don't think we can get much useful information knowing the roles of who the packs' killed. Knowing the roles of who we lynch will be more important.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I saw Lommy's side of the argument with Agan, so that made me suspicious of Agan (which today so far her and sally are the ones rising to the top of my suspects. I have to look more carefully what's going onbetween morm and Lottie). However, I was trying to employ a "wait and see" strategy with Agan and I was keeping in mind trying for a no lynch.

I'm disappointed it didn't work out that way, but not devastated as I don't think Nog's lynch cripples us. That is to say, of the 3 dead, I think it's most likely that he's a wolf, but I also don't think we lynched the Seer. I would hope the Dead want to check him on their first chance, because I don't think we can get much useful information knowing the roles of who the packs' killed. Knowing the roles of who we lynch will be more important.

I was just curious, because I literally had the exact same view that Nog had regarding whether or not to tie the vote -

Originally Posted by Shasta

I don't think lynching someone today changes the odds of the Seer dying toDay or toNight all that appreciably, Boro. I especially don't think it changes the odds enough to forego a 1-in-4 chance of killing a wolf today. Someone more numbers-oriented than I could run the math on that, probably, but the fact that our lynch potential is limited is enough for me to think we should take a shot at a wolf today.

- and you never mentioned it.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I was just curious, because I literally had the exact same view that Nog had regarding whether or not to tie the vote -

- and you never mentioned it.

It's not a case of anyone arguing for a no-lynch is innocent, and anyone arguing to lynch is suspicious. It was the way he argued it:

I do not like the "let's not lynch anyone toDay" -meme (backed by the idea that we might lynch our Seer who is very important in this game) as the chances of lynching our seer are minuscule compared to any normal game and there are such loads of wolves around - and if we were to lynch the seer s/he could act on it before things get nasty thus at least securing another two dreams the next Night when the Ranger covered it for her/him...

There 24 players of which 1 is the Seer. The chances of hitting the Seer on D1 lynching = 1/24.

THere are 3+3 wolves in this game. The chances of getting a wolf on D1 lynching = 6/24 = 1/4. And add to that the practical stats we've just seen (a village is slightly better than random in picking up the villains), so yeah. Let's try and hunt a wolf toDay.
~Nog #96

I read it as Nog arguing to even consider the possibility of lynching the Seer day 1 with a 1/24 chance is wrong. I had stated before that I wanted to vote in a manner that would ensure we don't accidentally lynch the Seer, because to go into Day 2 with 4 dreams, instead of 2, can be a major advantage. An advantage and arguably most powerful Seer any village has had.

You stated it as a difference of opinion, which I generally accepted sounding like a reasonable difference of opinion. Give me some credit for being open-minded. There's more variables into my suspects than agreeing with me about whether to lynch or not.

We wouldn't have lost one of our lynch chances, we have the same number of chances depending on the size of the village, the only way you can gain more chances is Ranger save, or the packs target the same person. We would just be delaying one chance by a day, and I was swayed more by Form's argument to let the wolves make the first move, instead of taking a blind shot.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Nerwen: I've just had a re-read of yesterday's action because, honestly, that is how I remembered it; but hardly anyone is suspecting wolf-on-wolf.

The closest is Form who says that at least one is probably a wolf. Rikae noted that it might look wolf-on-wolf in a different game, but given the rules of this game it would be senseless. Can't see much else.

I had also thought to find some baddies on the outskirts of this Finnish tussle but it's not so obvious.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Nerwen: I've just had a re-read of yesterday's action because, honestly, that is how I remembered it; but hardly anyone is suspecting wolf-on-wolf.

The closest is Form who says that at least one is probably a wolf. Rikae noted that it might look wolf-on-wolf in a different game, but given the rules of this game it would be senseless. Can't see much else.

I had also thought to find some baddies on the outskirts of this Finnish tussle but it's not so obvious.

Add Nilp and McCaber... I'd say that counts as "many". And Mac and Mith just sort of crawl on to the waggon. My point is that it all seemed to be built up out of very little, even by Day One standards.

Edit: x'd with Rikae.

[Mithalwen]

I will confess it was a lazy vote. I genuinely thought Agan was pulling a swifty and then when it was explained I really was too tired and too hacked off (remembering too late why I gave up playing werewolf) but sure that cotriving a no lynch would still be counterproductive as well as feeling to my instince unsporting.

So Agan was at that point ahead anyway so... yeah

Incidentally Nerwen, why do you think from the narrative indicates the lovers are still alive? I thought the itch thing might inidicate something but what I am not sure. The known unknown makes guesses far from educated. Tnighthe maulings certainly suggest both packs killed.

That of course doesn't exonerate either. I can't help thinking that instituting some strategy that basically pretty much asks innocents to take one for the team..or at least the gifted is quite a lot of help to the wolves as the ordos. Lots of lobotomised voting leaving no audit trail and narrowing the field for night kills.

[Nerwen]

Okay. I have to vote now, so-

++Macalaure
is the the best suspicion I have right now. Reasons already stated.

Just to complicate things, I am not entirely easy with the other two people who suspect him (morm and Firefoot either. Ah well. Running out of time.

I will try to be back later, though.
Edit:x'd with Mith.

[Nerwen]

Mith, toDay's narration said,

The Wolves will stop PMing now. The Lovers may continue to do so.

.

[Mithalwen]

Oh dear I didn't read down to the destructions. Useless... Thank you.

[Formendacil]

Posting from a break at work on my phone--spent time better spent eating catching up. So advance apologies for typos and brevity.

In the cold light of day, the Agan/Lommy spat seems to have vanished as quickly as it started,which is either proof of innocence or a sign of Nightly discussion in my mind, which makes me think for the first time that they might be littermates. It seems an outside chance, regardless, but if so, it would mean most of one pack would have voted pre-Nogwagon, suggesting that if there was a wolfish pileon in the Nogwagon, it was between members of a single pack, meaning thatan analysis of the Nogwaggoneers and only there correspondence with each other COULD suggest the composition of a pack.

That is probably too much weight for the slender evidence that is the Agan/Lommy dispute to hold up, but it's gone through my head and for now I think I'll likely look for wolves in the Nogwaggon.


A heads up that while I shpuld be around later a fair bit, I could be stuck on my phone until the deadline.

[Macalaure]

Nerwen's “And Mac and Mith just sort of crawl on to the waggon.” irked me, so I looked back to refresh my memory of events, and then I got carried away and it turned into this.

Agan, Lommy, and everyone around.

#66 Agan jokes about killing Europeans
#67 morm jokes back
#69 Agan misunderstands morm's joke in a way that, to me, strongly suggests a wolf slip
#70 Lommy crosses with Agan, and in the edit is immediately notices it
#74 Greenie thinks Agan was trolling, not slipping
Then the whole thing disappears for a whole stretch of time. Nobody comments on it on page 3 at all.
#123,127 Agan posts, not commenting on Lommy's #70
#129 Lommy returns and makes her case against Agan. A case that I consider solid.
#131 Yours truly lists Agan as suspicious, refering to #69 (crossing with Lommy, which in light of Nerwen's suspicion is probably important)
#139 Lommy lists Agan as suspicious
#144 Agan replies to Lommy's case. Now she does quote #70. She states she understood morm's joke and simply continued it (could be). She also asks what a wolf would gain from her behavior, which doesn't make sense, since the accusation is about a wolf slip.
#150 morm says that he took Agan's #69 as a joke, but that her behavior since raises eyebrows
#155 Agan votes Lommy.
#157 Lommy votes Agan and defends her case. Some of her point 3) seems a bit far-fetched. It's worth noting that Lommy is still around afterwards to make a few more posts.
#159 morm states again that Agan is behaving oddly
#165 Shasta states that he didn't see Agan's slip, but suspects her due to her reaction
#166 Lommy replies to Agan one last time.
#168 Yours truly states his intent to vote for Agan
#170 Form says that their argument is fishy, but that we will only see the truth in a few Days. States they could both be wolves, one could be a wolf, or both could be innocent (duh), but suspects one is a wolf (maybe I thought was most likely innocent too quickly, because this post looks bad)
#172 Nogrod takes up Lommy's case
#174 McCaber says he didn't like Lommy's reaction, but felt it innocent. Agan's reaction felt opportunistic/trying to provoce reaction to him.
#178 After not commenting on the exchange in his detailed list before, Legate now comments. If one is a wolf, it's Agan to him, but most likely both innocent.
#181 Nog votes Agan, not mentioning the argument, but citing different reasons (doesn't mean he discarded the older points, and is probably just adding to them?)
#182 Mith comments on a different post of Agan, suspecting misinformation by her (smelling a bandwaggon and trying to jump on without being too obvious about it? Nah, I think she's genuine.)
#184 Rikae says Agan-Lommy looks wolf-on-wolf, no explanation
#186 list by Form: Lommy too defensive but probably innocent, Agan more innocent than guilty
#188 I'm feeling like repeating myself and say that I'm still going to vote for Agan
#190 Form votes himself. Also thinks that Agan could be guilty, but not strongly enough.
#193 Mith votes Agan
#194 tp needs stuff explained to him
#196 Lottie sees where the Agan suspicions come from, but she's not her top choice
#197 tp wants to vote Nog over Agan/Form, but only with support
#200 Firefoot thinks the argument was odd, but doesn't know which looks more suspicious
#202 Lottie offers to go along with tp
#203 Eomer thinks both Lommy and Agan are most likely innocent
#204 McCaber votes Agan. Out of the ones he'd considered, she had the best chance of getting lynched
#205 Lottie tells Eomer not to count Lommy/Agan out just because they were loud
#206 Boro calls Agan's #69 an innocent(!) Freudian slip
#208 Rikae says she suspected Agan earlier but doesn't now anymore (but Agan hasn't posted in a while, what changed your mind?) Lists Lommy as an option for her
#210 Nilp “echoes others' sentiment that it looks wolf-on-wolf” (thought Nilp was pretty innocent so far, but I'm not liking this one that much)
#215 Rikae votes for Lommy
#216 I vote for Agan
#220 Lottie feels more strongly about Nogrod than Agan and votes him
#222 Eomer votes for Nogrod because he doesn't buy into Lommy/Agan wolfness (could have picked Form earlier on)
#223 Shasta votes for Nogrod since he's more suspicious than Agan, though it seems like they are both good options to him

Ugh, not going to do the same for toDay, as I originally thought I'd do.

Thoughts:
I still think Agan is most likely a wolf, but I'll grant that there's a possibility that she's innocent. But why then was she so upset about Lommy's suspicion? It just makes more sense for a wolf who messed up.
I don't see why Lommy is suspicious to some people, and especially the wolf-on-wolf people (Form,Rikae,Nilp) raise eyebrows to me, Form especially. Firefoot's “I don't know who's more suspicious” raises one, too.
Shasta stays a little bit on the fringes, going for Nogrod in the end. Lottie, too.
I don't see Mith's involvement as suspicious. McCaber might look a bit opportunistic, but I don't really think so.
Boro's “innocent Freudian slip” is a red flag I didn't notice before. The way I see it, it was either an innocent joke, or a not-innocent Freudian slip. Or am I seeing something wrong?
Of the others involved, morm, Legate, and Eomer look fine. Greenie's comment could be interpreted wolfishly: trying to calm the flames first, then staying far away once everything's on fire.