WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Rikae]

Wait, unless you mean the "seerishness" scenario? It's not that risky since her case against Mac doesn't really stand out in any way, which is precisely why I don't think she would have looked seerish in the first place.

I am wary of Mac right now, but it's pretty much only of him being a bear or a maiden fair. For lions, I think we need to look elsewhere. Like Eomer. Or Encai the Kingslayer. Or Kitanna.

[Nogrod]

I know people are always - myself included - most interested in the reasons someone killed the seer. And that is generally a sound tactics. But now I'm afraid we're concentrating too much on Wilwa (the real seer killed by a bear) while in a way forgetting that G55 was killed by the lions (three of them) and was much more likely looking like a seer to some people...

I'm taking a short look at G55's posting.

[Macalaure]

Decided to do the voting first after all.

1. Skip -> Gil
2. Lottie -> Skip (because she didn't like his vote, fair enough)
3. Sally -> Lottie (because reasons)
4. Boro -> Inzil (why?)
5. Kitanna -> Skip-2 (suspiciously placed, moving skip ahead of a four tie, but her reasoning feels innocent)
6. Wilwa -> Skip-3 (if Wilwa was still alive, this vote would look horrible)
7. Inzil -> Skip-4 (badly placed and badly reasoned. Inzil had a vote as well, so maybe part of him choosing the bandwaggon was self-preservation)
8. Gala -> Mac (boo)
9. Rikae -> Wilwa (a vote for the known seer is yucky, but I don't think she could have had any such suspicion; her reasons are solid)
10. Encai -> Nogrod (not sure about this one)
11. Eonwe -> Skip-5 (comes out of nowhere and adds vote #5. If he was a baddie, he could have found a less obvious place for his vote...)
12. Wyth22 -> Mac-2 (... like this)
13. Mac -> Inzil-2 (... or this )
14. Gil -> Boro (still spreading the vote at this late point, but then, Gil is Gil)
15. Lommy -> Wilwa-2 (spent the last hour vote-counting, reasoning is so-so)
16. Green -> Mac-3 (not happy about this one, but I can see where she's coming from)
17. Nogrod -> Mac-4 (this one I like less, as he's mostly using the point Greenie made; and riding a counter-bandwaggon is always better than riding the original one or throwing the vote away; if Inzil is a lion, Nog's vote looks not so good (Greenie's, too))
18. Volo -> Gala (throws vote away)
19. Eomer -> Inzil-3 (at this late point, he's effectively throwing his vote away, too, though less obviously)

Based on how the votes look, not overall suspicion

Innocent(-ish): Kitanna (but bad if there's a lion among Gil, Lottie, or Inzil), Rikae, Greenie
Neutral or not sure: Lottie, Sally, Encai, Eonwe, Gil, Nogrod
Suspicious(-ish): Boro, Inzil, Wyth, Lommy, Volo, Eomer
No vote from Nerwen and Copper.

One other interesting thing: Wilwa adding vote #3 to skip would guarantee to put her under some scrutiny toDay. The bear didn't care about this, which again points to the lovers feeling relatively safe yesterDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Given the size of the village, maybe the victims were chosen because they had no connection with the villains. The Seer, in any case, should not be giving away anything on Day One.

In Post #91 Wilwa mentions: Skip, Lottie, Gil, Mac, Lommy, Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. The village would obviously assess what this could mean, because there could be something Seer-ish in Wilwa's notes - leaving the unmentioned in the shadows for an extra day. They would be:

Me (I suppose )
Eowne
Inzil
Enca
Green
Wyth
Mac
Cop
Nog
Volo
Sally

So if the lions weren't really expecting the Seer to be findable, and chose Wilwa because of this, then I'm sure two of them at least are in this group.

Can't believe they actually got the Seer, though. That Lannister filth always gets lucky somehow.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh. Spot the error in that post.......

Staying up past bedtime to post on Werewolf is a bad idea. Just say no, kids.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.

I'm not sure. Looking back, I see that Mac did a similar list without suspecting anyone, and Lommy also did one without really suspecting anyone (she suspected G55 but only for being quite passionate in discussion, apparently).

G55's list, however, had two clear suspicions. I think her case against Mac at least made sense; but to claim that Volo 'rubbed her the wrong way' and was a certain vote candidate... there might be something to that.

[Coppermirror]

I'm here, reading, and very, very slowly working through an analysis of Day 1. As I mentioned in the admin thread, on Day 1 my internet cut out part way through page 2, which is why I couldn't vote. But I absolutely must vote toDay.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I wish I hadn't pointed out that Wilwa seemed nervous, but it seemed like a evil sort of nervousness to me.

Saying someone looks nervous isn't necessarily pointing them out to baddies as "hey look, (insert role)."

Originally Posted by Volo

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.

If Galadriel was targeted as a possible seer by the lions I'd say her endorsement of an innocent Wilwa was likely why. Though she does mention Mac and Volo. But seems like a stretch to interpret what she had to say as seer hints about them.
Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions. In which case Volo and Mac look decent.

Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

I doubt they would have concerned themselves with the hunter this early. Not when the seer was still on the loose. Even then I'd think the lions next choice for gifted attacks would be the ranger.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.

Where Galadriel's death is concerned I see Mac as somewhat innocent. She voted for him, but it's possible the lions thought she was seer based on her comments about Wilwa. Or if they thought they were getting the hunter, as both Rikae and Zil say, Mac looks pretty good.
However, I feel somewhat uneasy about Mac where Wilwa is regarded. Their interactions about the lovers yesterday was odd. A lion trying to get rid of the competition before the lovers get them? Or a bear nervous that a lion had pegged them?

Originally Posted by Nog

Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.

The "lynch a lion" post was odd. And doesn't scream seer at all, but rather frustrated innocent. But as Nog pointed

Originally Posted by G55
I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.

That does look a bit seerish. Which points to Lottie, me, Zil, Eonwe. Though I'm not sure when she made that remark so it may not include all of the surviving Skip voters.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55. After all, he could have spun his wheels in the Wilwa conversation for a while, made himself seem helpful, and gotten nowhere towards lion-hunting.

Nog and Eomer could be steering the conversation back to lions in the same attempt to be helpful as contributing to the lovers' kill as well. Clever lions can steer us in all sorts of directions in an attempt to be "helpful."

Originally Posted by Wyth

You'll have to excuse me being defensive, this is my first experience being accused. Though it is still a Wolfy thing to do by distracting people with farfetched ideas that were pretty plainly taken as jokes, while also implicating someone who had voted on you.

And the defensiveness continues.

[Coppermirror]

Well, I've got to vote, or I'll be modfired. I'm going to bed now and I won't be back before the deadline. Unfortunately, though my long post has got me up to speed on what was going on in the game, it hasn't found anyone I intensely suspect. I'm going to have to make the best guess I can.

I think I'm going to vote Eomer. My reasons for this are:
- Mostly his general tone and posting style yesterDay. It came over as reserved and opaque to me, and the sort of thing a lion might go in for.
- His vote placement. It was placed in a way where it couldn't have any real meaning for the outcome.

++Eomer

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, I doubt her comment on Encaitare would have been taken as a likely Seer-hint by either party (it’s basically just quoting Lommy anyway). However –despite my earlier comments– I find it odd that you think the villains would comfortably discount the idea of being Seer-dreamed on Night One. After all, not only can it happen, it happened last game. To us!

It's not that I'm saying they could discount that possibility entirely. But, I wouldn't say that the size of the Inn is something irrelevant.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Interesting. I was just reading through yesterDay, and Lommy's explanation of how the Lions and Lovers could join forces for mutual profit actually struck me as being rather suspicious. Not “String ‘er up!” suspicious, but certainly eyebrow-raising. I mean, yes, it’s something an innocent might legitimately bring up too– but I wouldn’t myself dismiss it just on the grounds of being “too risky”.

Hmm. No, I wasn't meaning to say that I was entirely dismissing the possibility of Lommy being a villain. It's not at all safe to do that. What I was thinking was that the risk might make it less likely for her to be certain roles. That doesn't mean that villains won't ever take risks.

[Nogrod]

Okay. G55 seems not a person whose posting screams seerishness... which I think many of you have noticed already before me.

But I'd still like to put forth a couple of things I think merit consideration.


First of all, she was the one the lions (wolves) killed and it is absolutely their priority to kill the seer asap. Whether the bear got lucky/unlucky by hitting the real seer is another question and isn't of importance discussing G55 and who the lions are.


Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.

I've played with her a few times before and especially her very self-confident, almost leadership-like posting was new to me at least - and I actually realised it only now as I went through her posts again - I guess I concentrated more on the other half of her act yesterDay more.


She also made one interesting remark about those who had voted Skip (or were openly suspecting him) - not so much what she said but how she said it: (underlining mine)

Originally Posted by G55

I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.

In her list-post Eomer already referred to she makes this to and fro with Skip but openly suspects two people: Mac and Volo.

Here's what she says:

Mac - really don't like the way he pushes some discussion. His arguments don't make that much sense (slash I just don't agree, but then that's how we evaluate sense most of the time), and he's very insistent on them. However, he's blatantly running for the centre spotlight of attention, which is unwolvy. But still, the way he says some stuff just doesn't sound right. Vote candidate.
Volo - don't remember much of him at this point, but some of the earlier things he said rubbed me the wrong way. They just don't sit right. Vote candidate.

Like you see, her suspicion on Mac is quite specified relating to his posting - even if a bit contradictory. Volo on the other hand is handled with a lot less detail aka. "some early posting rubbed her the wrong way"...

So if she was thought of being the seer because of her suspicions, I'd say Volo is a more believble candidate than Mac as she took pains to actually specify her suspicion on Mac in posting-terms.


Then again she clearly defended Wilwa (and Lottie "gives good vibes") but that was mostly grounded on specifics about her posting - so not exactly a seer-hint either (like Lottie could have been - but that positiveness was maybe too shallow to raise any interest from the lions).

So if the lions were not going after her having spotted one of them (Volo? Mac maybe less believably?), then it could have been her swag and some odd-points together that killed her: too self-assured and knoweldgeable (or putting too much effort) not to be an ordo and odd enough to try and raise some suspicion as to not be the "one everyone trusts and therefore to be done with"?


Hard to say.

It's 3AM and I'm to bed. See you later toDay.

[Macalaure]

Galadriel

Joking list in #6. Could the lions have thought there's a seer hint hidden in there? Bit of a stretch, probably. Would point to Wyth being a lion.

Then there's several posts of role discussion, during which she strangely grows more and more irritated.

Big list in #107. The two that stand out are Volo and me. Her suspicion of Volo comes without real reason, but it wouldn't make me point at her and scream "seer" if I were him. Shortly after she votes for me.

She's still around after her vote, defending Skip and receiving some criticism for it from Nogrod and Rikae (oddly, neither of them Skip voters themselves).


The only people who could've thought they've been dreamt of if they're lions are Wyth and Volo, and it's a stretch for both. If the lions thought she was gifted, it must've simply been due to her being overly passionate.

Or they killed her for a different reason - maybe they had no clue on the seer yet. If they were trying to frame me, Greenie or Nogrod would've been better choices. Unless those two are lions, but I feel like I'm starting to reach here.

She's obviously not a no-trail kill, but maybe a false-trail one? In that case the lions would be found among the people she didn't suspect in #107. Unfortunately, that doesn't exactly narrow down the list.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.

I've played with her a few times before and especially her very self-confident, almost leadership-like posting was new to me at least - and I actually realised it only now as I went through her posts again - I guess I concentrated more on the other half of her act yesterDay more.

I'm inclined to think that G55's change of playing style (based on what you say), which seemed erratic and outspoken to me yesterDay, is something which was interpreted as not-Ordo. My intuition was Lion. For the Lions, it's obviously Crow, 3idCrow (likely), Targaryen, Bear or Maiden.

Just to clarify:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

18. Volo -> Gala (throws vote away)

Factually, it is a throwaway vote. I hadn't realized that only me, Noggie, Eomer and Nerwen, who didn't vote, were remaining. Noggie was musing about voting G55 so I thought of joining him rather than voting someone I didn't think was a Lion (strategically it might have been more sensible to actively choose between skip, wilwa and Mac, but I had a gut feeling, I wanted non of them lynched...). So I xd with Noggie.

I'll conclude, that wilwa didn't leave a hint on her Dream. Prudent of her. Doesn't make sense to speculate what role she could have Dreamed of.

Unfortunately, this doesn't leave me with much.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I know people are always - myself included - most interested in the reasons someone killed the seer. And that is generally a sound tactics. But now I'm afraid we're concentrating too much on Wilwa (the real seer killed by a bear) while in a way forgetting that G55 was killed by the lions (three of them) and was much more likely looking like a seer to some people...

I'm taking a short look at G55's posting.

I agree that the Wilwa discussion hasn't really gone anywhere - she didn't leave much of a trail as a seer, and I don't know why she was targeted by the lovers, but I feel like if the lovers were looking for a seer candidate, there were more likely options.

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55. After all, he could have spun his wheels in the Wilwa conversation for a while, made himself seem helpful, and gotten nowhere towards lion-hunting. Instead, he (and Eomer, who followed Nog's lead and looked into G55's posts) bring our attention back to the person the lions actually did kill, and who might have been an attempt at the seer. I think that reflects very well on both of them.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

I agree with this. I think, if G55 was killed as a likely seer target, Volo was probably the reason why. Moreover, since there wasn't a huge backlash against him until later in the Day, I also think it's very unlikely the lions were attempting to frame him.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.

Well, but if you're a lion looking for a seer on Night 2, that might be the best you can get in terms of seer candidates. G55 suspected Volo above and beyond almost everyone else, and the one person she put him level with had a lot more reasoning behind his placing than Volo did, which makes her suspicion of him noteworthy, and noteworthy suspicion of someone who actually is a lion is eye-catching to the lions. I could see them basing their Night-kill off that.

EDIT: xed with Mac

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lottie

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55.

Depends. If the lions tried to kill the seer unsuccessfully, then they should analyze the kill themselves thoroughly, subtly emphasizing whatever points the other ways, hoping the majority of the village just goes along and is too lazy to look for themselves. If they made a no/false trail kill, then they can just sit back and watch the village mess up.

I haven't paid much attention to toDay's posting yet, so I'll go do that now.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, but if you're a lion looking for a seer on Night 2, that might be the best you can get in terms of seer candidates. G55 suspected Volo above and beyond almost everyone else, and the one person she put him level with had a lot more reasoning behind his placing than Volo did, which makes her suspicion of him noteworthy, and noteworthy suspicion of someone who actually is a lion is eye-catching to the lions. I could see them basing their Night-kill off that.

EDIT: xed with Mac

If you're a lion on Night 2 with no better leads on the seer than "someone suspected one of us in a list in an ordinary way", killing that person is a good way to create a trail back to yourself to kill what's probably (and was) an ordo. Not wise. A lot of people threw around vague suspicions on Day 1, as usual, without being seers. After all, the odds are against the seer's first dream being a baddie, in general, on Day 1.

Nope, I don't think it was an attempt on the seer at all. I think perhaps that was the false trail they hoped to set out for us - look how many people are insisting on it, even while admitting there was nothing particularly seerish about Gal!

The most seerish comment was from our actual seer, about Mac or about her list of trusted people, though even that isn't much. Still, Boro, Kit, Nerwen, Mac and I are all fairly likely early seer dreams.

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

At any rate, I really think we ought to look at the people who are playing it safe, people the 'trail', such as it is, conveniently bypasses.

Reading quickly over yesterDay, Eomer's posting struck me as very safe, basically just amplifying things that were already being said and bantering a bit. Lottie, Kit and Inzil's votes were fishy (so was Eomer's). Boro, of all people, is sleeping under the reindeer. I really have a feeling the Lannisters are sitting in the corner right now and enjoying the show.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Can't believe they actually got the Seer, though. That Lannister filth always gets lucky somehow.

Is this the error you speak of? Cause only lions are Lannisters?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Is this the error you speak of? Cause only lions are Lannisters?

My error was in arguing as if the lions had targetted Wilwa, which obviously didn't happen. That kinda rendered my whole post pointless.

By the way, I also noted that 'odd' response to which you refer. Classic tactic?

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

My error was in arguing as if the lions had targetted Wilwa, which obviously didn't happen. That kinda rendered my whole post pointless.

Right. Lions = Lannisters. Bear and Maiden fair = not Lannisters. You said Lannister filth, not bear filth. And I obviously lied about going back to work. And I'm not sure why I'm clarifying my answer to your error.

Originally Posted by Eomer

By the way, I also noted that 'odd' response to which you refer. Classic tactic?

I'm not really sure what you're talking about. I've referred to a lot of things.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You've lost me, Kit. Are we no longer even to refer to Lannisters without being accused of being the Bear?

That other point, seeing as you're obviously not in the mood to be cryptic about things, is that I agreed with your assessment of Enca's response to me (you had used the word 'odd' to describe it in your previous post). It was rather chummy behaviour, and I noted it at the time.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

You've lost me, Kit. Are we no longer even to refer to Lannisters without being accused of being the Bear?

No, no. I missed

So if the lions weren't really expecting the Seer to be findable, and chose Wilwa because of this, then I'm sure two of them at least are in this group.

entirely. I read your last line as the Lannisters got lucky in killing Wilwa, not that they got lucky because she died. I just focused on the wrong part of your statement.

That other point, seeing as you're obviously not in the mood to be cryptic about things, is that I agreed with your assessment of Enca's response to me (you had used the word 'odd' to describe it in your previous post). It was rather chummy behaviour, and I noted it at the time.

No cryptic tonight I'm afraid. Too much RL work. But yes, I'm glad you noticed it as well.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Wait, unless you mean the "seerishness" scenario? It's not that risky since her case against Mac doesn't really stand out in any way, which is precisely why I don't think she would have looked seerish in the first place.

No, I meant the "G55 as a Hunter" scenario.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I am wary of Mac right now, but it's pretty much only of him being a bear or a maiden fair. For lions, I think we need to look elsewhere. Like Eomer. Or Encai the Kingslayer. Or Kitanna.

Sorry, I don't follow the Kingslayer reference. I really ought to read these books.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Is this the error you speak of? Cause only lions are Lannisters?

Maybe he means the fact the he said Wilwa was slain by Lions.

x/d with Eomer x 2 and Mac