WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[wilwarin538]

Ok, so I guess it's time to start focusing on individuals and take a moment away from the discussion on game mechanics. Only a little over two hours to go.

I'm not seeing anything abundantly suspicious in anyone yet, but there are a few red flags here and there. My thoughts currently:

Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

Lottie: her list is very non-confrontational (best word I can think of to describe it) appears helpful but really nothing majorly negative about anyone. But, she's doing this from work as I am, and probably doesn't have the freedom that I do to contribute more substance.

Gil-Galad: talking way more than I ever remember him talking in WW, but to be fair I probably am too. I have agreed with a lot of what he's said, so I don't know, iffy here.

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.

Lommy: seems to think this game is "too easy", which I don't really see right now, likely losing 2 people a night and therefore increasing our chances of losing gifteds and our numbers dwindling quickly, is not what I would call easy. And that was in stark contrast to what she previously said about our bad odds.

I feel pretty good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Everyone else I am neutral about at the moment.

So my vote? Will wait a while longer, should be able to stick around close to DL, not getting much work done anyway, and I'd like more to go on.

note: had a tough time posting this, my work computer seems to not like the Downs, maybe it's trying to tell me to get back to work, haha, but if I don't come back it's because my computer won't let me, hopefully that doesn't happen!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.

Not concerned about the cobbler itself, but I've got the feeling that some people have been trying to exaggerate the bear-threat to the point of prioritizing him over the wolves. Of course those people like to downplay the influence of a cobbler. In connection, I find this suspicious.


Anyway, I'm not sure I'll be able to be around much at the deadline, so I better make my mind up about my vote.

[A Little Green]

Goodness I'm so sorry, I had no idea the game had started! Here and reading now.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

The way I see it:

We lynch the bear, lose a night kill but the Lions gain a cobbler.

Lions kill the bear, innocents gain a helper and we still lose a night kill.


I prefer the odds of a Lion killing off a bear/maiden then us lynching them and essentially helping the Lions. Sure, the two-kill night could kill off more innocents, but could also kill off a lion and an innocent.

Looking at the alternatives, lynching a bear/maiden will just end up helping the Lions more then helping the innocents.

Ok, I know you're not the first to say this, and you probably won't be the last, but it's just got to be said and your post happened to have taken the blow. Unless you're a Lion, you can't make the lions kill who you want them to kill, and if you are a lion, you're not gonna kill those who ham you with their deaths (ie the kind the village wants you to kill). So yes, it's ideal if the Lions get the Bear, but we can't make it happen, so leave the beaten horse alone and start doing something that we can make happen.

/end rant.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this!

Thought so too at this post, but realised that Gil will be Gil. I can see him posting that as any role. Yes, his posts are rather... Gil, but that particular one wasn't big enough to make me actually suspect him.


Another thing a bunch of people said is that we're talking about lovers too much and lions too little. Well, what do you want in the first-in-several-years game with lovers? That's the first point. The second one is that how exactly are you planning to find wolves with no votes, no kills, no posts, no nothing? Discussion of the roles is as good a place as any to start chatting. To be quite honest, I'm very happy with the start of this game. A typical D1 has 20 hours dedicated to complete silence, 3 to IC and banter, and the rest to something that sounds like "I don't like the way he phrased his IC post, I'll vote for him". Ok fine, that was an exaggeration, but you get the point. This game there's a good discussion going on the various possibilities for the new roles and rules, something that could also be reread later on with a bit more known roles. It's true that we have to look out for people to vote (in 2h I believe), but saying "look for suspicion" isn't gonna help you get people to talk. A good discussion will. If everyone says "Let's look for wolves!", you're not gonna find any, because there's nothing more left to say. People who encourage others to restrict discussion on D1 to "looking for wolves/lions" do a very good job of allowing the wolves to hide beneath these words.

/end rant #2

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

There isn't much to say about wolves day 1, especially when there isn't anything special about them. All there is to get discussion going at the beginning is to talk about the unique aspects of the game.

Thank you!

Originally Posted by Rikae

Getting rid of a night kill is surely worth having a cobbler around, and I wouldn't be so sure the wolves are willing to kill the bear.

Yes. This.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

The cobbler isn't my greatest concern either, but the fact that no one seems to care at all makes me feel like there's something furry going on in the discussion.

Actually, the cobbler has been mentioned several times at the very beginning, and most of us seem to agree that a Night kill is a good trade for a cobbler. What's more to say on the discussion? What do you want people to say? And why are you agitating people so much against killing one of the lovers? I can't say I'm liking the way you're pushing the trend.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

So anyway, deciding whether we should be targeting one over the other isn't really all that productive to me. The methods of discovering either will be fairly similar I think (kill the bad guys!), and lynching the Bear would not be terrible to the point where we should be actively trying to avoid doing it.

(3 more hours, if I'm correct?)

Wilwa, I'm liking you more and more with each post. And 2 hours.



And now it's time for me to start looking at specific people... but that will have to wait a bit.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Another thing a bunch of people said is that we're talking about lovers too much and lions too little. Well, what do you want in the first-in-several-years game with lovers? That's the first point. The second one is that how exactly are you planning to find wolves with no votes, no kills, no posts, no nothing? Discussion of the roles is as good a place as any to start chatting. To be quite honest, I'm very happy with the start of this game. A typical D1 has 20 hours dedicated to complete silence, 3 to IC and banter, and the rest to something that sounds like "I don't like the way he phrased his IC post, I'll vote for him". Ok fine, that was an exaggeration, but you get the point. This game there's a good discussion going on the various possibilities for the new roles and rules, something that could also be reread later on with a bit more known roles. It's true that we have to look out for people to vote (in 2h I believe), but saying "look for suspicion" isn't gonna help you get people to talk. A good discussion will. If everyone says "Let's look for wolves!", you're not gonna find any, because there's nothing more left to say. People who encourage others to restrict discussion on D1 to "looking for wolves/lions" do a very good job of allowing the wolves to hide beneath these words.

Preach!

Originally Posted by Mac

PS: more house sigil avatars everybody!

Uhm, mine is a bear...I think I'll pass

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

If everyone says "Let's look for wolves!", you're not gonna find any, because there's nothing more left to say. People who encourage others to restrict discussion on D1 to "looking for wolves/lions" do a very good job of allowing the wolves to hide beneath these words.

Hmm... not sure about this.

I would argue that lions (let's not bring traditional bigotry against the noble wolf into this game, people!) would find it far easier to hide in a drawn-out discussion on game mechanics.

I always fancy that we can find lions - usually, in subsequent days I grant you - if we had gotten right down into the mud-slinging as early as possible on Day 1. You see this in the more basic games, for sure; I don't think this general tactic should change in the more complex ones.

For that reason, I'm somewhat suspicious of those guests who are chummying up to others by praising the "good discussion" they are engaged in - and which gets us no nearer a good old-fashioned lion-lynching.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Hmm... not sure about this.

I would argue that lions (let's not bring traditional bigotry against the noble wolf into this game, people!) would find it far easier to hide in a drawn-out discussion on game mechanics.

I always fancy that we can find lions - usually, in subsequent days I grant you - if we had gotten right down into the mud-slinging as early as possible on Day 1. You see this in the more basic games, for sure; I don't think this general tactic should change in the more complex ones.

For that reason, I'm somewhat suspicious of those guests who are chummying up to others by praising the "good discussion" they are engaged in - and which gets us no nearer a good old-fashioned lion-lynching.

Lynch a lion. Go. Be my guest. Can you see one? Can you find one? Are you going to find one by yelling "go find lions!" at the top of your lungs? I'm a fan of getting lions/wolves/whatever. I'm not a fan of people telling other people to go look for them.

EDIT: xed since quoted

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Lynch a lion. Go. Be my guest. Can you see one?

Maybe I can.

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

A "clear direction"? It's a first for me playing with you, but I hope that doesn't indicate a Lion waiting to see which way the wind blows.

Mmm, I can see how that might come across as bandwagonny, at the very least. At the time I posted, no one had yet voted. So I was more trying to express that I had no idea what anyone was going to base their votes on, as no one was appearing overtly suspicious to me. But I'm of the mind that Day 1 is pretty much a shot in the dark.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Lynch a lion. Go. Be my guest. Can you see one? Can you find one? Are you going to find one by yelling "go find lions!" at the top of your lungs? I'm a fan of getting lions/wolves/whatever. I'm not a fan of people telling other people to go look for them.

I think what Eomer is saying is that he would prefer that we start making accusations and see how everyone responds. You don't seem to like that. Are you invested in keeping the lions' identities a secret?

(Was that what more like you wanted, Eomer?)

Edit: cross-posted with Eomer.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Lynch a lion. Go. Be my guest. Can you find one? Are you going to find one by yelling "go find lions!" at the top of your lungs? I'm a fan of getting lions/wolves/whatever. I'm not a fan of people telling other people to go look for them.

The second odd thing of the Day thus far.

And I'm not a fan of those who point their fingers in this kind of vague fashion just implying something while actually not even doing it (not to talk of actually laying a claim or making an open suspicion) - looks pretty lionish to me. And anyway, with an hour to go we need to get something going by way of making suspicions.

So yes, I'm suspecting Galadriel the most at the moment. Going to read back next...


EDIT: X'd with Lommy

[Macalaure]

Blissfully absent:
Eonwe
Green Lommyhands

New to the game / haven't played with before (as far as I'm aware), so vote-exempt for now:
Loslote, Wyth, Copper (not too concerned about either of them at this point)

Seem innocent at the moment:
Encai (feels good)
Wilwa (been disagreeing with her, but she sounds innocent)
Rikae (playful Rikae is ordo-Rikae, or so I'd like to think)
Volo (feels good, too)
Gil (same)

No clue either way, really:
Lommy Greenhands (mostly fine, but just too much bear-talk overall)
Nerwen (does seem alright, but only a fool trusts Nerwen)
Galadriel (no real feeling either way)
Eomer (same here)
Nogrod (hasn't said enough yet)
Sally (hasn't said much either)
Skip (said plenty, but I don't know what to do with him)

Somewhat fishy:
Inzil (seems nervous)
Kitanna (really just this one line I pointed out earlier, very flimsy suspicion)
Boro (something seems off, can't put my finger on it)

Very fishy:
nobody

Totally fishy:
nobody

A lot of gut feeling in this list, and nobody sticks out as truly deserving of a vote. Day One at its best.


PS: more house sigil avatars everybody!

PPS: crossed with two loooong posts there

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Galadriel

Actually, the cobbler has been mentioned several times at the very beginning, and most of us seem to agree that a Night kill is a good trade for a cobbler. What's more to say on the discussion? What do you want people to say? And why are you agitating people so much against killing one of the lovers? I can't say I'm liking the way you're pushing the trend.

It's Day One, and there's nothing to say. Our only hope for a good voting is the small chance that a wolf slips up. Poking people and watching what happens increases that chance slightly. It's my usual strategy.
It rarely results in me getting no votes on Day One, but so be it.

I still do think the lovers shouldn't be our first concern, though.

Originally Posted by Inzil

As I said, if you ignored me or thought I seemed innocent I would be more concerned.

On second thought, I think Inzil looks quite innocent. I will ignore him for now.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Uhm, mine is a bear...I think I'll pass

What's wrong with bears?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

What's wrong with bears?

You just made a big mistake, pal.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

You just made a big mistake, pal.

*tries to hide the honey in his hair*

Feeling better about Eomer and Galadriel as well. She's sooo insistent that we can't get a wolf today (not that I'm optimistic by any stretch), I highly doubt a wolf would act this way, and lacking a cobbler, she's most likely innocent.

(crossed with numbers 3 and 4 of the Skip-bandwaggon)

[Thinlómien]

Eönwë - under the radar, which is a nice hiding place for a wolf (or a bear)
Inziladun - his normal self
Kitanna - also under the radar
Encaitare - seems a bit too trigger happy, but I'll give her the benefit of doubt toDay
wilwarin538 - makes sense and contributes and all that, but her bear-centrism feels sinister to me
Boromir88 - otherwise seems innocent enough but didn't give any reasoning for his vote which is always a bit weird
Loslote - notable: easy vote
Nerwen - I'm hoping to see her vote on Day1 again, I was so proud of her last game
Galadriel55 - calm down girl! definitely up there on my suspicion list for making a huge fuss about the bear discussion after the necessity of the bear discussion had already been beaten to death imho
A Little Green - nothing much yet
WythDryden - should be on invisible mode, otherwise fine
Eomer of the Rohirrim - I'm fighting very hard my knee-jerk suspicion of him before I see more of him (he and I seem to always suspect each other)
Rikae - seems innocent enough for now
Macalaure - the Mac I remember from previous games was way less chaotic! I'm baffled...
Coppermirror - can form a radar club with Eönwë and Kitanna
Nogrod - should concentrate on ww not football
Colin "Volo" Mute - I would like to observe him for longer before passing a judgement, but nothing worries me yet
Gil-Galad - actually seems quite innocent even though I disagree with his points
satansaloser2005 - radar club
skip spence - notable: easy vote (I feel like Gil and Skip himself are easy Day1 lynch targets because they think fast and sometimes a bit kneejerkily and are active enough to draw attention)


edit: xed with everything starting from #99

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

WythDryden - should be on invisible mode, otherwise fine

Wyth has been having account issues again. He is barred from posting at present, and I know he was definitely on Invisible Mode before, so maybe the two things are connected. *sigh* If he can't post on that account before the deadline, he will likely have to post as Lote22 again.

Edit: cross-posted with G55

[Eönwë]

Wow, I almost completely missed the Day!

And there really isn't much time, but I've just about caught up.

Some thoughts first:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

I disagree. I can definitely imagine someone desperately clinging onto life outing themselves as the Targaryen. For anyone it could guarantee another Day (or Night), which could be especially vital in late-game, and a Lion may hope to out the real Targaryen that way too, which would give them a known innocent and sow confusion for the rest of the Day. And who knows what a Lover could have in mind? (Imagine a Lover and Lion are both leading in votes and then reveal as Targaryen. What then when they're both alive the next day?) Admittedly, it is certainly a move of desperation, but I don't think it's impossible that we'll get plenty of reveals that Day.

Which is why I also think that this isn't particularly true:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can see reasons for pretty much anyone to reveal as Targaryen, if they're willing to take the risk. A Targaryen who survives a kill attempt is a known innocent, but someone who simply reveals as one will not be, as far as I'm concerned.

Fake revealing as an 'unflipped' Targaryen would work better as a long-term strategy (could get a few Days out of it), but as an act of desperation, a 'flipped' one is also possible.

But enough talk of Dragons, that really is something we have to wait and see. And I don't think I'll have enough time toDay to address the earlier Lover/Bear discussion properly.

At the moment, the thing that stands out most to me is Skip's encouragement of a Targ reveal, so:

++ Skip Spence

And since I wouldn't expect a fellow lion to start a concrete vote against one when the feeling was already against one, if he is one, I suppose this'll make Lottie look innocent.

Mac, Rikae, Lommy and Gil have all said things that I'm not particularly keen on (but this post has taken longer than expected and I really need to go now) so I think I'll need to give them a closer look if I'm still alive toMorrow. And G55 does not seem her normal self, but I'm not sure what to make of it. Inzil also seems under the radar, but I can't tell whether this just a lack of posts or his very invisible early lionish self.

edit: x-ed with everything since Lommy's #105.

[Inziladun]

Holy smokes, this is a big village. And a lot of people are posting. On Day 1! That's good, but it's also a headache for those doomed to be at work.

Originally Posted by Encaitare

Assume nothing! Love can make anyone into a blithering idiot.

Truer words were never spoken.

Originally Posted by Encaitare

I'm not sensing a clear direction for the voting yet... I shall have to go back and peruse your posts once again. We have yet to hear from Eonwe, A Little Green, and Nogrod. Are they quivering with fear in the corner (AKA doing real life things) or trying to fly low under the radar?

A "clear direction"? It's a first for me playing with you, but I hope that doesn't indicate a Lion waiting to see which way the wind blows.

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

Easier said than done, sir.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

Than again, I think the ranger ought to be more concerned with protecting possible Seers, rather than the Hunter!
And I still say a revealed Hunter would be more damaging to the Lions later.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Soooo I just got back to work today after 4 1/2 days of being gone and I cannot describe my current working situation in family friendly terms. I honestly don't think I will be able to contribute much more today. I have two 15 minutes breaks between now and DL, so my vote will be entirely random or will be based on flimsy feelings if I can find a suspicious post while I skim over the thread.

My sympathies. I had an RL situation come up myself. It's unlikely I'll be around for DL, so my vote will come soonish.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This coming in response to the slightest early Day One suspicion? Woah, there.

Now, now. For some reason I always want to suspect you, and it seems its mutual. I want to give you a pass though toDay. As I said, if you ignored me or thought I seemed innocent I would be more concerned.

Right now I'm thinking of voting skip, for the business about the Hunter revealing (and the Seer focusing their protection there) and his seemingly easy vote on Gil.

x/d with G55 and Greenie

[Kitanna]

I have a meeting at DL so this is probably the last I will be on until well after D1.

++Skip

Not as random as I thought it would be, but built on flimsy reasoning. Skip has been the only one to really draw my attention. His belief that having a known innocent in exchange for a secret hunter doesn't feel right. It feels like he's pushing for something that could and probably will be harmful for the village by drawing ranger resources to protect someone who has no knowledge of anyone else's role and therefore their only benefit is being a known innocent for a day or two.