WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Like Lommy's (of course) and Boro's decidely leonine behaviour thus far? Hmmm?

Come on, when don't you suspect me on Day1?

And as reply to Volo and Wilwa:

Let's assume a worst case scenario. That is we lynch only innocents, the wolves and the bear kill only innocents, the seer doesn't dream of wolves, the ranger doesn't make saves and the hunter doesn't kill a wolf.

We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5.

Okay, I screwed up my maths a bit earlier because I somehow counted that we would be 5 + 2 +3 on Day4. In that case, the wolves and the lovers might just all have revealed and teamed up after one innocent has voted. (Given that both teams would have reason to assume the innocent is innocent.) Now I see we're only screwed on Day5 if everything goes wrong.

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks.

I mean, seriously:

16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too.

It can't be that easy, can it?

And see, Volo, someone proved Lommy's ominous maths wrong.

I should probably shut up though. I seem to have created a habit of making a fool of myself on Day1. *would insert a self ironic smiley if I hadn't run out of the quota* I'll be back later!


edit: xed with Wyth and Kit!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5.

....

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks.

I mean, seriously:

16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too.

It can't be that easy, can it?

Really it'll only get super easy if we get rid of the double night kills early, if that happens than yeah we have a huge advantage number wise. But as long as we lose two people per night our numbers are going to dwindle very fast. Hopefully we just get lucky with lynches or the baddies do accidentally kill each other. Could really go any way here. One good thing is that with this many players our gifteds are fairly well hidden.

And that's an interesting point Gil, the Lions and Bear are just as afraid of each other as we are of them, and at this point they are just as much a threat to each other.

(I'm not going to get any work done today, haha, this is such a distraction!)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

"There is only one god, yeast, and when it refuses to rise we say 'not today'."

Heh, I like that.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you. Then again, it might be more worrisome if you didn't fire a shot or two my way Day 1.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

Well, the Lions should be the main focus, as there are more of them. The bear kills too though, and the lack of a specific allegiance always seems to make it much harder to spot.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Right. But shouldn't the hunter do so then, right now? Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?

I would say the hunter revealing could be useful later in the game, when known innocents are more of a headache to the baddies. If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm the Targaryen!

Originally Posted by Volo

We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.

I'm more concerned about last-minute shifts of allegiance. Lovers will be looking constantly to see which was the wind blows, though it is certainly in their best interest to hunt Lions.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

My biggest fear with the lovers is the extra kill at night. Though, they could take down a lion with this kill, which would be wonderful. And while a cobbler can be dangerous later in the game I'm not overly concerned if we lynch a lover and get one. Ideally the lions will target one and the remaining lover will be on the village's side. I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers. But I'm also not going to sweat it too much if we lynch one instead of a lion.

I think this is sensible. At least a Cobbler won't be killing us at Night.