Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

In any case, taking this argument post by post I can see the merits of thinking the wolves would rather not have killed new, confusing Echo on the very first night over no-trace Inzil. However, leaping to such a concrete suspicion of Nerwen is just that - a leap.

Well, she didn't seem to consider that part of the situation at all. And since she went through all the posts, I felt like such a massive oversight might not be unintentional. And it's one that could be defended in a way that looks innocent (note that she didn't defend it- she just refused to acknowledge that it existed). It needed to be challenged.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

My dear one is pretty known for her skills at analysis at this point - it's an odd sort of game if she doesn't do at least three. Given that, I'm not sure why Eonwe finds it a wolvish trait.

My point is not that she makes the list, it's that she misses stuff out. And a post-by-post analysis becomes a sort of 'official' overview of someone (to an extent). Which is not good if it's lacking, and could be an intentional way for a wolf to hide some important point in plain sight by brushing over it or mentioning it lightly and never getting back to it.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm not understanding the second paragraph much, either. It would be better for Kathwolf for people to believe Kath was dreamt? Or Holby? If Kath, it doesn't make any sense - either way, Kath is basically outed as a dreamed wolf.

The point is that if they really thought that Echo was the seer, it's more likely they thought Holby was dreamt.

If they didn't really think Echo was the seer, because he/she was acting that way, they could make it seem as if they thought he/she actually was the seer. In this circumstance, championing the opinion of them thinking that the dream was Kath would be more beneficial.

In the first scenario, Kath is irrelevant. In the second (admittedly far more elaborate), she's bought herself a lot of innocence.


As for this:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

What does whether or not the kill of Inzil was aimed at taking out a gifted actually matter in the current situation?

This is the full exchange:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.

edit: x-ed with Greenie

[McCaber]

I'm back from work, and the unrelenting heat has just about fried my brain. Hopefully I can find something to work from in the next half an hour.

[A Little Green]

Great timing to only think of this this late, but I think I managed to put my finger on what bothers me about Boro. I know he's short on time and all that, but the time he does have he seems to use on who he doesn't find suspicious rather than who he does. I would think an innocent Boro, if in a hurry, would rather concentrate on possible wolf-suspects than elaborate arguments on why someone isn't suspicious. It strikes me as fishy.

Thus, giving the squabblers the benefit of the doubt for toDay (chiefly because I can't decide which of them looks worse),

++ Boro


EDIT: x-ed since Shasta's 260, bolding

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Great timing to only think of this this late, but I think I managed to put my finger on what bothers me about Boro. I know he's short on time and all that, but the time he does have he seems to use on who he doesn't find suspicious than who he does. I would think an innocent Boro, if in a hurry, would rather concentrate on possible wolf-suspects than elaborate arguments on why someone isn't suspicious. It strikes me as fishy.

Thus, giving the squabblers the benefit of the doubt for toDay (chiefly because I can't decide which of them looks worse),

++ Boro


EDIT: x-ed since Shasta's 260, bolding

Oh yah, that makes sense..."I don't know which of these two look the worse so let me vote for someone I'm not that suspicious of, but he always makes me nervous because it's Boro...and well he could be bad because he's Boro."

Thanks hun.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Oh yah, that makes sense..."I don't know which of these two look the worse so let me vote for someone I'm not that suspicious of, but he always makes me nervous because it's Boro...and well he could be bad because he's Boro."

Thanks hun.

No worries, Boro, her sister's gunning for me because (as far as I can tell) everyone else looks more innocent? I dunno.

[Eönwë]

Well, one of my key suspicions about Greenie was her connection to Cop, but now that I'm considering Cop innocent, most of her other stuff seems pretty good to me.

I don't really find Lottie particularly evil- I haven't really seen anything yet that makes her guilty, despite what people are saying about her.

And it looks like time's running out so I'll stop there and hopefully have more time to express my opinion toMorrow.


However, I'm not too sure about Shasta

Won't lynch:
Lommy
Greenie
McCaber
Cop
Lottie

Might lynch:
Shasta
Nerwen
Boro
Kath

[Eönwë]

Well, I have no idea what the total vote count is, but just to be sure:

++Boro

[Eönwë]

If Boro turns out to be a sorcerer, I think it will be worth it to look at Nerwen toMorrow.

edit: fixed bolding

[Coppermirror]

Sally, does Saruman show up as an ordinary sorcerer to the Aura Reader, or will they know if it's him?

[Coppermirror]

I'm going to go and re-read the previous Days too, in light of the person I thought was the Aura Reader being different. I'm working on the provisional assumption that Shasta is telling the truth. Either way, we're going to have a wolf in the bag and a revealed Aura Reader.

I think the question about whether the Aura Reader can see Saruman is pretty important.

[Coppermirror]

I love this situation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but now, we have either Shasta and Greenie sorcerers, or Eönwë and Lottie sorcerers.

All of the rest of us:
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lommy

should now be considered known innocents, I think. Unless something very interesting is going on.

I'm going to go and take a good look over things. We need to get Saruman toDay if we possibly can.

Originally Posted by Loslote

My other two dreams were of the innocent Nerwen and Steve. I did not dream the first Night - I was confused and thought I couldn't. Oops!

So if Lottie is the Aura Reader, she never dreamed of me. Hmm. I'd previously assumed she had; that's why I thought she was the Aura Reader before.

[Thinlómien]

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd feel the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd be the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?

Yes, you were suspecting him more than her, but it seemed to me you were keeping the option of stating to suspect Nerwen open as well.

[Eönwë]

So that's

Nerwen -> Eonwe
Boro -> Nerwen
Greenie -> Boro

so far

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen 1, Eönwë 1, Boro 1, right?

Out of these I prefer Boro, but I'd still like Shasta dead better. If Greenie and Shasta are indeed in cahoots and we end up lynching Boro because Greenie started it I'm going to feel sick.


edit: xed with Eonwe

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Yes, you were suspecting him more than her, but it seemed to me you were keeping the option of stating to suspect Nerwen open as well.

Mmm, nope, not really. I don't particularly care for her apologetic votes, but I don't find that in and of itself a reason to think her suspicious.

++Eonwe

[Thinlómien]

++Boro

I will honestly apologise if you're innocent but I'm currently pretty sure Eönwë is innocent.


edit: xed with Shasta - ha, I will laugh if you two are wolves and Greenie is innocent, but I'll also hit my head against something if all four of us are innocent.

[McCaber]

I'm also pretty sure Eonwe is innocent, so

++ Boro

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

++Boro

I will honestly apologise if you're innocent but I'm currently pretty sure Eönwë is innocent.


edit: xed with Shasta - ha, I will laugh if you two are wolves and Greenie is innocent, but I'll also hit my head against something if all four of us are innocent.

Well, I don't know about that. But you might consider not narrowing things down so far with so many people still alive. That's almost as bad as Lottie's wolf-colored glasses syndrome.

[Loslote]

++Boro

I'm sorry, hon, but I trust Steve more than you.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd feel the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

Nnnnnnn. I can kind of see where you're coming from, but I'd feel uncomfortable lynching someone on such slim evidence. I do agree with you that Boro, Greenie, and Shasta look most likely to be our two (two? two) sorcerers (or you for that matter, though I'm agreeing with you so heartily just now that I'm more inclined to look at the others.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Well, she didn't seem to consider that part of the situation at all. And since she went through all the posts, I felt like such a massive oversight might not be unintentional. And it's one that could be defended in a way that looks innocent (note that she didn't defend it- she just refused to acknowledge that it existed). It needed to be challenged.


My point is not that she makes the list, it's that she misses stuff out. And a post-by-post analysis becomes a sort of 'official' overview of someone (to an extent). Which is not good if it's lacking, and could be an intentional way for a wolf to hide some important point in plain sight by brushing over it or mentioning it lightly and never getting back to it.


The point is that if they really thought that Echo was the seer, it's more likely they thought Holby was dreamt.

If they didn't really think Echo was the seer, because he/she was acting that way, they could make it seem as if they thought he/she actually was the seer. In this circumstance, championing the opinion of them thinking that the dream was Kath would be more beneficial.

In the first scenario, Kath is irrelevant. In the second (admittedly far more elaborate), she's bought herself a lot of innocence.


As for this:

This is the full exchange:



edit: x-ed with Greenie

Point A: "Refused to acknowledge" is a bold statement. I feel a better one might be "thought irrelevant" - your concept of importance and Nerwen's aren't necessarily the same, which is why some of the things you say come off as accusatory.

Point B: That's fair, but again, how can you be as sure as you appear that Nerwen left something out intentionally?

Point C: The second scenario obviously depends on Kath being a wolf. Given that (and given Nerwen's point about Echo living an extra day after calling out Kath), I'm fairly certain at this point that the first scenario is the correct one. While I applaud the way you look at things from every angle here, I do have to wonder how much of it is "finding something to post to look helpful", which is a common wolf trait.

[Boromir88]

Don't really want to rush myself...but I love the random "I'm concerned about Boro...but I have no idea why I should be" occurances that simultaneously pop up after a few days. Nothing seems to ever stop that from happening. Although, the way Lommy is talking her head around in circles makes me feel pretty good about her.

Both of Shasta's votes aren't very good, but someone rushing to not be mod-fired and apparently with a serious lack of sleep making them. And since Holby pointed out not liking Shasta's abstaining vote in Day 1...I'm not sure if a wolf would do that against another mate.

Normally Day 1 debates over strategy and game mechanics turns out to be between two innocents...but with fewer people than the start and this about Echo being killed it's looking like some sorceric paws are in the frey.

I thought Eonwe was a bit too gun-ho at the start of the day. And that can look wolvish if it looks too much like wolf conversation from the previous night. But Nerwen's later reactions look bad too.

The thing I kept noting is she hasn't seemed to be as annoying in prodding and questioning people on everything. She did with Lottie some, and then today got on Eonwe...but then started backing off. Ermmm..today

++Nerwen