Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I can certainly understand wanting to keep Eomer's role under wraps, but the alleged logic of this falls apart under further inspection.

1. Dun put Sally on his three person list. Fair enough. Everyone had a list, and everyone's bound to be on one or two people's lists at least, so no problems here.

2. Eomer voted for Sally. The logic holds up so far. If Eomer is (or rather was) the seer, it makes absolute sense for him to vote for a guilty Sally if Dun had her on that list.

3. Dun voted for Eomer. If Dun received a dream, he'd know the results, but not who sent it to him, so there's little chance he would know not to vote for Eomer. However, if he's the one who received the dream and it said Sally was guilty, why wouldn't he vote for Sally? Therein lies my biggest problem with the way Morsul is explaining his motives. He's claiming to act upon information that the person who had it didn't even act upon.

4. Morsul voted for Sally. As far as his suspicions go, that's fine, as he had voiced his suspicion of both Sally and Steve, and Eomer wasn't actually in too much danger at the time, so it's not a huge issue, but when he further "explains" his vote, he refers to his vote as "try to get a least a semi-not random vote in." If he were basing it off the dream chain listed above, it wouldn't be random at all.

So yes, him voting for me kept Eomer "safe" for the Day (except for the part where Eomer was lynched at the end of it). However, voting for me rather than Steve also gave Steve a better chance of survival. It's often convenient for a villain to suspect their fellows, yet in the end decide an innocent is a better lynch option. It's not a new trick.

Am I ready to say without doubt that Steve and Morsul are fellows? Certainly not, but if one turns out to be against us, I'll not be surprised if the other is as well. Morsul's quasi-guilty behavior is definitely not a notion that should be tossed aside as Pom is doing, which is another concern entirely.



Not x'd, but I do need to read everything since the quoted post in more detail.

See this while incorrect conclusion makes sense to me. If I was Sally I'd suspect me. It was my careless research that's at fault but there it is. Does this clear Sally for me? No but this looks like a lot of work just to throw an innocent under the bus for a KM.

I'm looking through Pom's posts righ now but so far, one thing that's interesting is his suspicion of Brinn, granted this is before phantom confirms her innocence but for the most part it seemed most agreed she probably was innocent based on Boro's post.

X'ed phantom

[Mänwe]

I'm here now-thankfully its the weekend. Thoughts to come soon!

[Loslote]

Innocent as the bright morning star or something poetical like that
Lottie
Shasta
tp
Brinn

I see no *reason* to suspect
Manwe
Nerwen
Sally
Pom

I see no reason to suspect...but feel like I maybe ought to
Zil
Morsul
Steve

Unless I start seeing actual reasons for suspicion, I'll have to go with one of the three from the latter group. I don't like voting on 'well, he feels like he maybe might be a wolf...' so I'll be looking through the thread, seeing if I can't maybe find any more substantial reasons for voting. I don't have anything else to do until DL, so I should be around.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I said I was here and reading, and then got pulled away. Let me get a few thoughts in order real fast.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

And yet, that very fact speaks to the innocence of an examination of Brinn - since most people thought she was innocent, it would be fruitless for a wolf to try to raise suspicion against her - especially so early in the game, when there are so many other players who would be easier to frame.

Certainly there were other targets for a Pomwolf, but to seemingly discount her as a threat based on her suspicion of Brinn seems unwarranted.

As a matter of fact, I still feel Pom is somewhat dodgy and her suspicions seem forced. Barring new developments, that's probably where my vote will go.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Certainly there were other targets for a Pomwolf, but to seemingly discount her as a threat based on her suspicion of Brinn seems unwarranted.

Certainly not - but as an argument against Pom, her suspicion of Brinn is not a particularly valid one. I haven't really seen much evidence against Pom besides the 'well, she feels evil' argument I've been trying to avoid. Moreover, she does not, in fact, feel evil when I read her posts, so, while I'm making no arguments for her innocence, I'm also not blindly accepting any faulty arguments for her guilt.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Certainly not - but as an argument against Pom, her suspicion of Brinn is not a particularly valid one. I haven't really seen much evidence against Pom besides the 'well, she feels evil' argument I've been trying to avoid. Moreover, she does not, in fact, feel evil when I read her posts, so, while I'm making no arguments for her innocence, I'm also not blindly accepting any faulty arguments for her guilt.

Like I said, I just think the suspicions don't look genuine.

So to you, who does have a "valid" case against them?

[Inziladun]

Then again, there are Sally and Steve's late votes for Eomer. Hm.

x/d with Lottie

[the phantom]

Just so we're clear of the position here-

Population: 11
Good vs Bad: 8 vs 3
Known Innocents: 3

Assuming an incorrect lynch-
10
7 vs 3
3

The baddies kill Amandil tonight, as he is the one guaranteed not to be protected tonight. Thus tomorrow-
9
6 vs 3
2

If the Baddies elect to leave Amandil alive to avoid his power and go after Brin or I and guess wrong (Anarion will be protecting one of us no doubt), then we'll sit here tomorrow-
10
7 vs 3
3

And in that circumstance the Baddies would then be forced to attempt a repeat kill the following night as Anarion would split duties between Amandil and the remaining known, meaning even with yet another bad lynch-
8
5 vs 3
2

At that point things would be ridiculously weighted against he Baddies despite lynches favoring them, and particularly if Anarion and/or Isildur is still alive, as that would leave even in a simple dice roll situation a 60-75% chance of lynching a Baddie, and it would be ridiculous to think that absolutely no decent suspicions would emerge by that point.

In short, due to the untenable situation the KMs would be in with a failed kill, we'll almost certainly lose Shasta tonight, which sucks, but at least we get a teensy kickback from his death. And if we can lynch correctly either today or tomorrow I think we have a puncher's chance of winning even without Elendil, so I don't think we need be overly depressed.

[Brinniel]

Pom earlier discusses her disapproval of Nerwen and me not wanting to spread out the lynch candidates and I don't like how she jumped to conclusions (saying several people pushed aside their suspicion of Morsul to vote Eomer instead...you can have multiple suspects, you know). However, I'm not sure that's cause for her to be a baddie. And I wouldn't think a baddie would feel the need to be so forceful in her opinions at this point.

If Pom is innocent, I could see as a prime target for a baddie to try to get her lynched. After all, she directs some suspicion toward a now known innocent and makes some illogical statements. That could easily give reason for someone to vote her. Plus, she won't be around for the rest of toDay, so she can't even defend herself from suspicion. So yeah, I might watch those attempting to bandwagon against her. So far that would be Inzil and Morsul.

Of course, this would all be invalid if Pom is in fact a baddie. But regardless, I'd rather not vote for her because I would like to hear from her more toMorrow.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Pomegranate

#28 - Posts about what Amandil and Elendil should do. Sides with an Amandil reveal and random lists Day 1. This -

Originally Posted by Pom

And just in case - if a KM decides to do a fake-reveal, Amandil, at least counter that! Otherwise we're stuck with a lot of problematicly full trust to a KM, and potentially to a chain of people after that.

-strikes me as odd and I'm not sure why, unless it's just that a KM revealing as Amandil that day would have been incredibly suicidal.

#31 - more about dream lists.

#34 - defends him/herself to Inzil. This -

Originally Posted by Pom

There is a reason why I haven't posted a list yet, that's because I don't want everyone to just jump blindly in

- confuses me; what harm was there at this point in time to actually doing what you wanted everyone else to do, post a list? This almost looks overly concerned with wanting to go with whatever the majority wants.

#38 - more about dreams.

#45 - wants to vote. I agree.

#75 - finally posts list.

#84 - posts a feeling-list about everyone. Is pretty noncommittal about everyone except Nerwen and Inzil. The interesting part to me is that Pom says [/b]Inzil[/b] looks too "explanatory", basing part of this on this quote by Inzil -

Originally Posted by Inzil

All right. I'm just looking for holes in this deal, before everyone just jumps in.

- which looks eerily like something Pom him/herself said earlier. This brand of hypocrisy always makes me raise an eyebrow.

#191 - This bit, I'm bothered by.

Originally Posted by Pom

Votes: Brinniel and Nerwen made points on not adding new people to the voting. I'll need to check the times, but I don't like that point - if you don't believe anyone on the voting list is a KM, it's better to (potentially) lose a vote than to vote an innocent. And if you do, why keep mentioning that you only vote within the already-voted, since you'd then have other things to say as well.

It's actually pretty acceptable to not spread out votes late in the day; any baddies that have saved their votes have that much more control of the lynch. Also, this is before phantom mentioned he'd dreamed of Brinn.

#193 - reiterates suspicion of not wanting to bring in a new candidate for lynch close to DL.

#195 - this is the second time Pom has mentioned people suspecting Morsul but voting Eomer.

#197 - explains him/herself to Nerwen (and backtracks a bit?) Thinks if Boro was killed for being dangerous, then the KMs should have rightly gone for phantom.

#208 - states intention to vote for one of the later Eomwer-voters in general, and Sally in particular. Seems to be mostly because Sally suspected Morsul earlier, and Pom thinks she's just jumping on other people's suspicions. But didn't Sally suspect Morsul yesterday too? Something to look into.

#209 - considers Eonwe to be much less suspicious than Sally.

#210 - votes Sally.



Conclusions -

There's definitely something weird there. I'll need to go back and see what Sally has said, but it seemed to me that Pom was pushing her a bit hard on not really much. In addition, I feel like his Day 1 vote for Inzil was based on a double standard. I wouldn't be opposed to lynching him today, but I do want to look at some other people.

[Inziladun]

I have to leave for a bit, and should have time to consider the vote.

I do think either Sally or Steve could well be evil. Of the two, Sally has been pretty sensible it seems the past few hours, so of the twain I'd prefer Steve as the better bet. Like I said though, I wouldn't be opposed to Pom either.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally

#51 - banter.

#88 - It's always hard to tell what's banter with Sally, but she makes a point about Eomer here -

Originally Posted by Sally

Eomer, your three theoretical guilty parties are all young lads and yet, instead of voting for one of them, you attempt to sink your noose into the neck of a wee lass whose only apparent crime is saying hello? You hooligan. A pox on you and possibly your king.

A wrong point, as it turns out, but she did have at least a reason to vote Eomer.

#93 - weighs in on Isildur possibly using his power today - is vehemently against it.

#94 - hopes Inzil is all right.

#99 - agrees with Phantom about Morsul -

Originally Posted by Sally

I'm equally hesitant to believe any defense that is based off alleged naivete.

#110 - banter.

#114 - banter.

#116 - suspicious of Morsul being suspicious of Sally for being suspicious of him.

#118 - replies to Phantom, letting him know Eonwe is often lynched first.

#121 - banter.

#131 - Votes Eomer, after replying to Morsul. Hmm.

Originally Posted by Sally

The problem I have with this is that you didn't deny my "accusation" of you just trying to save your own skin.

However, given Eomer's flip flop about not voting (and then voting me, of all the scandalous notions), I believe I'll have to choose him over Morsul; it's simply too risky to spread the vote so close to deadline.

The problem I have with this is, okay, Morsul didn't specifically deny trying to save himself (by suspecting you). ...So? Whether he did or didn't is immaterial, considering how much weight saying so would carry (read: none.) Also, I can buy not spreading the votes so close to deadline, but had you even looked at any of the other possible lynch candidates? I'm sorry, Sally, but your vote does kind of look opportunistic.

#139 - banter.

#153 - flirtatious banter.

#178 - banter and rule clarification.

#184 - analyzes Morsul and comes up actually suspecting him. I have to say, I agree with a lot of what Sally says here. However... it is Morsul...

#187 - mentions Manwe and Eonwe - noncommittal on both.

#189 - states the obvious.

#217 - this is another post that makes a lot of sense. Darn it, Sally.

#223 - banter, and a post that early-days Lottie would have been all over.

#227 - clarification.

#232 - "who I will vote for" list. Still thinks Pom, Morsul, and Eonwe look most suspicious - this is what she's been saying all along, so points for consistency.



Conclusions -

Sally started off neutral, then dipped into "suspicious", but climbed out of that and rose into my "innocent" zone. However, I'd still like to hear from her regarding her Day 1 vote for Eomer and why she didn't even mention any other candidates.