Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Coppermirror]

This is good! Now everybody but one has shown up, and some of the people who hadn't posted much earlier have turned up with more substantial posts. Hopefully Pitchwife will make it here before the end of the DAY.

I'm not at all sure yet who I'll be voting for. I had intended to vote for either some of the quieter villagers or those who hadn't shown up yet, to avoid only finding active villagers suspicious, but as time's gone on, some quiet people have become more active. So I'll wait and see.

Eomer, a tavern lackey like you must have heard some rumours about suspicious goings-on in the village. (Aside from poor Menel's demise.) Perhaps you've heard some incriminating mutterings from drunken tavern patrons? I usually only hear the mutterings of small children as they rummage through toys.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Indeed, Coppermirror, I hear lots of rumours. All of them gibberish, I'm certain. You drown cats, apparently.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I do agree with Nerwen's last post. Problem is that it's a smart post for a wolf to make. Given Inzil's suspicion of Kitanna, especially the nature of that suspicion (based on 'feel') any subsequent vote for Kitanna is going to be scrutinised.

Would a wolf-Sally walk into that, though? Probably not, though maybe.

It's a really small village and the wolves could win quickly. They could be trying a bold manoeuvre. Say, wolf-Inzil spies their first victim (Kitanna made early posts) and sets it up for Sally to make the vote. Nerwen then jumps in to criticise that vote.

We could be looking at a move here. Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I do agree with Nerwen's last post. Problem is that it's a smart post for a wolf to make. Given Inzil's suspicion of Kitanna, especially the nature of that suspicion (based on 'feel') any subsequent vote for Kitanna is going to be scrutinised.

Would a wolf-Sally walk into that, though? Probably not, though maybe.

It's a really small village and the wolves could win quickly. They could be trying a bold manoeuvre. Say, wolf-Inzil spies their first victim (Kitanna made early posts) and sets it up for Sally to make the vote. Nerwen then jumps in to criticise that vote.

We could be looking at a move here. Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates.

And I agree with your last post– to the extent that since the stakes are higher than usual, the wolves might well be more active in steering the lynch than on most Day Ones. But you see, that also explains why even an experienced wolf might risk targeting someone already suspecting, rather than just sitting back letting the lynch take its course (as they can often afford to do at this point). So your logic cuts both ways, I think.

EDIT:X'd with Nessa.

[Nerwen]

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?

But how do I feel about you latching onto my latching onto you latching onto sally?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?

Funnily enough, I was going to say relatively the same thing... only replacing your name with Eomer's. Hmm. I do need to vote (I'm about to hit the hay), so I think I'm going to go ahead and vote for -

++Nessa

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So two votes for Kitanna. Sally and then Inzil voted for her.

Then Shasta votes for Nessa. Hrm. Is the deadline in half an hour?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

that also explains why even an experienced wolf might risk targeting someone already suspecting, rather than just sitting back letting the lynch take its course (as they can often afford to do at this point). So your logic cuts both ways, I think.

Oh absolutely. I would never discount the option of killing Sally.

[Coppermirror]

If Pitchwife doesn't post today, he'll be mod-fired. That would be great if he's a wolf, but if he's an innocent villager, it's not so good. It's 11:35 GMT now, if the internet's not lying to me, and I believe that 2:00 GMT is the deadline. (If it's not, someone please correct me.)

Worst case scenario lists:

If Pitchwife is innocent and mod-fired...
DAY 1: We lynch someone innocent. Wolves 3, Villagers 6.
Also, Pitchwife is mod-fired and he's innocent. Wolves 3, Villagers 5.
NIGHT 2: Wolves 3, Villagers 4.
DAY 2: We lynch someone innocent. Wolves 3, Villagers 3, we lose.

Whereas if an innocent Pitchwife posts in time...
DAY 1: We lynch someone innocent. Wolves 3, Villagers 6.
NIGHT 2: Wolves 3, Villagers 5.
DAY 2: We lynch someone innocent. Wolves 3, Villagers 4.
NIGHT 3: Wolves 3, Villagers 3.

So...for the purpose of avoiding losing the game in two days and not looking further than that, I suppose it doesn't matter too much whether or not we lose an innocent Pitchwife in addition, because if don't find a wolf in those days, we lose anyway. For the longer term, it's more of a problem.

[Inziladun]

I made it back after all, though only briefly.

My hope in postponing my vote was that something else interesting would transpire in the meantime, and Eomer and Pitch might show up. Only one of the twain though, I see.

It is a bit suspicious the way Sally latched onto what I said about Kit. Funny thing is, I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit.

Like Eomer said though, I have to wonder if a Sallywolf would be so quick to do that. I guess if she was trying to get in a vote in a hurry, it's not impossible.

Then Nerwen casts a bit of suspicion Sally's way, which Nessa responds to.

Do I stick with Kit? Go for Sally? Nessa?

Hmm.

x/d with Eomer

[Inziladun]

Right, then.

I'm going to stay with Kit. If she turns out evil, Nerwen, and especially Nessa, might be packmates. If innocent, Sally will look pretty bad in my eyes.

++Kitanna

[Galadriel55]

OK, a list to help me find someone for the vote. I have a bad feeling doing this, since I basically suspect no one and am paranoid about more than half...

Coppermirror does some maths and makes some good observations. If some signs of newbishness don't count as a reason, then I have no reason to vote her - even if I would ever vote a new player on D1.

Inzil strikes me as more innocent than not. His vote might be less popular now than it would have been had sally not voted, but it's not his fault that this happened since his suspicion was in first. So a lose-lose situation which is not a reason for me to point fingers at him.

sally, as I said before, raises eyebrows with her vote, but on the other hand... did she really have a choice? That early on nothing happens, and only 2 or so players were actually active - ie more than a couple empty posts. Again, a lose-lose situation for her. I think I will refrain voting her toDay, and see what happens toMorrow. Today she's forgiven, but if she repeats toMorrow, not that will be an eyebrow raiser for real.

Kit gives me the Kit feel I always get from her, even when we're not playing WW. Says nothing. Dunno.

Nerwen makes me wary. Actually, she might have my vote. It's not that her points aren't true (gosh, when are they not? She's Nerwen!) or that they have a specific wolfy ring to them, but there's this feel. Just... this vibe.

Eomer makes a good observation about Nerwen, but not without a stretch. And I think the Zil and sally part of it is aso a bit stretchy. But it has some good ground to it too. Anyways, I don't have a reason to vote him now.

Nessa is under the radar. No vote for her either way since she's back from a very long break.

Shasta is also under the radar. Now that's bad. A Shasta has to stay above the reindeer at all times.

Pitch - I'm loathe to vote someone who's not there.



So I suppose I'm voting Nerwen?... I hope people talk some more in the last 15 minutes so that at least there are proper posts everyone.


Edit: xed since Zil's vote

[Coppermirror]

I don't have a lot to go on here, but...

++Nessa

My reasons: I don't believe that a vote for Pitchwife is a useful vote at the moment, as I think he won't show up and will get mod-fired anyway. I thought of voting for him earlier, but working through it in my previous post persuaded me that it wasn't a good idea. I may be wrong, but that's the basis for my vote.

As well as that, Nessa was involved in that speculation earlier. I don't really get what was going on, but it could have been used as cover for a wolf.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

As well as that, Nessa was involved in that speculation earlier. I don't really get what was going on, but it could have been used as cover for a wolf.

Which speculation was this?

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Which speculation was this?

This bit:

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

But I'm not sure I like the way sally ends up latching onto Inzil's random unease with Kit, admittedly upon much the same reasoning.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

But how do I feel about you latching onto my latching onto you latching onto sally?

Although in that, others are saying more or less the same things...Anyway, that's not why I voted for you. I'm afraid my suspicion isn't very strong at all, but I had to pick someone.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Drat and bebother this village. I don't like either of the two votes for Nessa NOR do I like Nessa's vote for Pitch.

[Meneltarmacil]

There was a knock on Nessa Telrunya's door. She opened it to see all the townsfolk standing there wielding torches and pitchforks.

"Wh- What's all this about? I haven't done anything, have I? And shouldn't you be looking for Pitchwife?"

"Don't try to protest," said G55. "We know what you are. We all do."

"Wait!" shouted Sally. "What about Kitanna? This could all be her doing!"

"How do we know you're not trying to trick us?" responded Eomer. "Wait, where's Nessa?"

Nessa had attempted to escape during the argument, but was caught by Inzil and Shasta, who forcibly led her to the gallows.

"You and your superstitions! I only use herbal medicine to help people! I'm not a witch!" pleaded Nessa.

"We're not hanging you for witchcraft," said G55.

"Oh? So am I...?" Nessa. looked confused.

Inzil clarified. "We're hanging you for being a werewolf."

The expression on Nessa's face suddenly changed to a wicked grin. "Well if that's your accusation, than I'm guilty as charged." With that she started to grow in stature and sprouted dark hair all over her body. With great strength, she threw off the villagers restraining her before dropping to all fours and growing nasty yellow fangs. An enormous grey wolf now stood where the midwife had been.

The villagers looked on in horror as the beast lunged toward them. With the strength of pure terror, they barely managed to beat back the wolf with their pitchforks while their torches seared its fur and flesh. With a great howl, the wolf finally collapsed dead.

Saruman, watching the scene from the Palantir, swore under his breath.
---------------------------------------

The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Inziladun: Baker
Kitanna: Cranky hermit
Nerwen: Horse trader of doubtful integrity
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1

It is now Night 2. Wolves may PM, everone else must be silent. I need names from Radagast and the wolves.

[Meneltarmacil]

There came a knock on Nerwen's door.

"We're closed for the night. You'll have to come again."

The knock came again, this time with a lot of growling and snarling.

Another dissatisfied customer, thought the horse trader. Haven't they ever heard of "Let the buyer beware?" "Listen, I told you up front there were no refunds, and the sign outside should have made things clear," she said, walking over to the door and opening it. "Now if you don't leav-AAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH!"

The villagers found what was left of Nerwen's corpse impaled upon her "No Refunds For Defective Merchandise" sign the next morning.

---------------------------------------
The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Inziladun: Baker
Kitanna: Cranky hermit
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Impaled by wolves on Night 2

Day 2 has begun. Wolves, stop PMing. Villagers, start your discussions.

[Coppermirror]

Whoa, so they took Nerwen. I'm really surprised. They must have thought she was the Seer. I thought she was a possible Seer too, but evidently not. I was sure that they would go for me or for Galadriel55, unless they thought they could get the Seer.

I wrote up a post earlier. I'll just copy-paste it here with some alterations based on Nerwen's death, and then leave to watch some more of the Olympics. Er, I mean the village hop-scotch championships.

Post I wrote up overnight:

We got a Fenris! Take that, Saruman. (And I am very happy that my first WW vote ever was for a wolf.) My minimum goal for the game has been met: for us to nab a wolf in the first two days and thus not lose in such a short space of time. I don't even mind much if I get eaten, from this point on; I'm already satisfied with this game. Of course, I'll still be working to help us get rid of the other two wolves, but I'm going to relax and enjoy it more. We've now got a fighting chance of victory.

I'm glad that Pitchwife didn't show up yesterDAY, because it meant that Nessa decided to vote for him. I was planning to vote for Nessa anyway, but out of a last minute "I have to vote for somebody and don't want to get on the Kitanna bandwagon or waste my vote!" worry rather than any actual suspicion. But her voting for Pitchwife seemed suspicious and gave me a real reason to vote for her, and also made Galadriel55 suspicious enough to vote. It's great that she really was a wolf.

I'm going to assume from now on that Galadriel55 is innocent. It's possible that she's a wolf playing a very dangerous wolf-on-wolf game having realised that Nessa was looking suspicious and hoping there would be more Kitanna votes, but I don't think that would be a sensible course of action for her. Too risky. So in the absence of further information, Galadriel55 is the closest thing to an innocent in my eyes.

We've got a great amount of information to work on from the first DAY. Quite a few people now look suspicious to me.

Chart of suspicion

Wolf: Nessa (deceased)
Very suspicious: Inziladum
Suspicious: Eomer, Sally
Unknown: Shasta, Pitchwife, Kitanna
Almost certainly innocent: Galadriel55
Innocent: Coppermirror, Nerwen (deceased)

I'll be back later with reasons for the above, though after that I may change my mind and revise my list. And at some point I'll do an analysis of possible wolf packs.

Eomer, you said that you didn't like either of the two votes for Nessa. Why's that? Also, why did you vote for Sally?

[Inziladun]

On the face of it, I don't see anything thus far to have recommended Nerwen to the wolves. She didn't even vote.

To clarify my own vote, I decided that it was more unlikely Sally as a wolf would have latched onto Kit the way she did, than it was that Kit herself was evil. I wasn't all that enthused about voting Kit, I just didn't see any better options.

It's a worthless thing to say, I know, but if I'd seen Nessa's vote for Pitch of all people, that would have changed things for me.

[Coppermirror]

Just working through my thoughts on Nessa's vote and the wolves' choice to go for Nerwen here. I'll look at the content of the rest of the discussion on this properly once I'm done. (And I still need to write up some analysis...)

Why did Nessa vote for Pitchwife?
Nessa knows whether Pitchwife is innocent or not. She placed her vote at 12:43 PM GMT. Menel in the admin thread said at 12:54 PM GMT that he wouldn't mod-fire Pitchwife on the first day, so Nessa did not know at that time that there would be no mod-firing.

Why would she vote for a Pitchwolf?
At the time she probably thought he would be mod-fired. Then it could be as Pitchwife suggested, with her making a throwaway vote for a packmate in an attempt to look innocent.

Why would she vote for an innocent Pitchwife?
If Kitanna is innocent, Nessa was aware of this and might consider Pitchwife a safe vote. Most people didn't look very suspicious yesterDAY.

If Kitanna is a wolf, Nessa might have thought Pitchwife was a safe vote too, distancing herself from the lynching. She might also have wanted to take attention away from Kitanna. In any case, I think it's unlikely that she was a sacrificial wolf, because I don't think wolves benefit much from a bold strategy here.

Why was Nerwen killed?
She didn't vote. Ordinarily if I heard that in a tale I would see that as a sign that wolves were trying not to be traced, but I'm not sure about it now.

They must have had something to gain from it. If Galadriel and I are both innocent, and perhaps neither of us is Radagast, and Radagast has by now had two dreams...that's a maximum of two probably-innocents and three known innocents. 5 innocents in an 8 person village, along with 2 wolves and 1 other villager. To me it would make sense for the wolves to have got rid of me or Galadriel last NIGHT, to cut down the number of probably-innocents, unless they had a really good idea who Radagast might be. Perhaps they were being reckless and hoping for maximum gain? Their current odds may not be great.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Good questions both, I'd like to hear that too. But Cop, why did you think Nerwen a possible seer?

She mentioned Nessa a few times, but was fairly mild and reasonable about it. She also mentioned a few other people in a light sort of way, emphasising that she wasn't making accusations. It could have been a subtle way for Radagast to hide an actual suspicion on the first DAY.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay. Pretty "thin", indeed, but I suppose it's enough to justify Zil's "ill-defined feeling of unease" comment, given this is Day One and there hasn't been that much else to analyse yet. Sally's vote, though, looks pretty opportunistic and her explanation sounds like hedging.

–Also– as a general thing, I find myself looking askance at people (Zil, Nessa, Sally), who paint lack of gifteds or excess of wolves as a positive thing, mostly because there's then statistically less chance of hitting the former than the latter. While true, this quite misses the point. I mean, I suppose one should always look for the silver lining and all that– but it's also often in the lupine interest to play down the village's danger. (None of this is an accusation, mind you– still much too early for that.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

If Kitanna is a wolf, Nessa might have thought Pitchwife was a safe vote too, distancing herself from the lynching.

Um, why would she want to distance herself from the lynching of a wolf? Doesn't make sense to me (unlike the rest of your reasoning here).

Originally Posted by Coppermirror re Nerwen's death

She didn't vote. Ordinarily if I heard that in a tale I would see that as a sign that wolves were trying not to be traced, but I'm not sure about it now.

They must have had something to gain from it. If Galadriel and I are both innocent, and perhaps neither of us is Radagast, and Radagast has by now had two dreams...that's a maximum of two probably-innocents and three known innocents. 5 innocents in an 8 person village, along with 2 wolves and 1 other villager. To me it would make sense for the wolves to have got rid of me or Galadriel last NIGHT, to cut down the number of probably-innocents, unless they had a really good idea who Radagast might be. Perhaps they were being reckless and hoping for maximum gain? Their current odds may not be great.

She mentioned Nessa a few times, but was fairly mild and reasonable about it. She also mentioned a few other people in a light sort of way, emphasising that she wasn't making accusations. It could have been a subtle way for Radagast to hide an actual suspicion on the first DAY.

The thing is, everything she said against Nessa or other people was based on sound reasoning, and nothing looks to me like it was arrived at by Nightly inspiration. Trailless kill seems much more likely to me.

(x-ed with Kit and Cop. )

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Um, why would she want to distance herself from the lynching of a wolf? Doesn't make sense to me (unlike the rest of your reasoning here).

The thing is, everything she said against Nessa or other people was based on sound reasoning, and nothing looks to me like it was arrived at by Nightly inspiration. Trailless kill seems much more likely to me.

(x-ed with Kit and Cop. )

It's past 5AM and my brain has turned into swiss cheese, so I'm not entirely sure why I said that. I was probably thinking along the lines of situations where wolves have gone for a wolf-on-wolf vote after a wolf lynching was already a sure thing. However, things hadn't reached that point when Nessa laid her vote.

I just don't understand why they would go for a trailless night kill in circumstances like the ones at hand. But I also don't understand why they would have gone for Nerwen thinking she was the seer on such thin grounds, because in these circumstances they would have needed to be sure in order for it to be worth the risk. But it must have been one of those options regardless.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

She's not saying she thinks, she says she knows.

Looks very much like it. I asked for clarification because I wanted to be totally sure I wasn't misunderstanding her.

Things have got interesting with Kitanna probably being Radagast, but I've really got to go now...

[Coppermirror]

About Inzil's plan to hook wolves yesterDAY...I do think that what he said was consistent, at least in terms of having me as the target. On the first page he mentioned me in a pointed way about three times, and sounded deliberately unconvinced another time when I explained something to him. He mentioned mild suspicion of Kitanna twice. And really, I thought that my first few posts in the thread looked a little suspicious myself.

Apparently nobody likes to lynch first-time players on the first DAY, so it would have been fairly safe to be suspicious of me and see who reacted. That sort of move wouldn't have been a bad idea to try to stir up discussion on a DAY when it was important for the village not to keep solely to banter.

When I first read the posts on the first DAY, I also felt mildly suspicious of Kitanna. But when I looked at her posts again later in the DAY, I decided it was my imagination. So I think I can see why Inzil might have had a vague feeling of suspicion.

Which is not to say that Inzil isn't still suspicious.

Anyway, in light of things people have said, I think I may need to reconsider my opinions about people's suspiciousness. But that'll be much later. I'll probably be gone for at least the next 9 or 10 hours.

[Kitanna]

++Zil

I almost didn't make it yesterday. I assumed I'd be lynched because no one else was in the lead. I can't take that chance when I know there's a wolf.

This is a small village and I'd rather sacrifice myself then let Zil live another Night to terrorize and kill.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

++Zil

I almost didn't make it yesterday. I assumed I'd be lynched because no one else was in the lead. I can't take that chance when I know there's a wolf.

This is a small village and I'd rather sacrifice myself then let Zil live another Night to terrorize and kill.

You "know" he's a wolf...Are you saying that you're the Seer?

If not, could you expand a bit on your reasons for why you think Inzil is a wolf? I know you gave some reasons yesterDAY, but a little more would be helpful.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

You "know" he's a wolf...Are you saying that you're the Seer?

If not, could you expand a bit on your reasons for why you think Inzil is a wolf? I know you gave some reasons yesterDAY, but a little more would be helpful.

She's not saying she thinks, she says she knows.

Kit, when did you gain this knowledge?

[Pitchwife]

Also, since you'll be dead toMorrow, I think it would be a good idea to tell us your other dream and give us a known innocent (assuming you didn't dream another wolf, in which case I'd think you'd have said so).

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Kit, when did you gain this knowledge?

Night 2. I dreamt an innocent on Night 1.

I didn't plan to reveal, but since Nessa died a wolf, I wanted the village to get two in a row. I have a terrible record as seer and sacrificing myself seems like a good choice since I have a known wolf.

[Coppermirror]

(Augh, I'm glued to this thread. Such drama.)

Inzil looked quite suspicious after yesterDay, in my opinion, which is why I put him at the top of my suspicion list. It would be reasonable for a Seer-Kitanna to dream of him (especially since he voted for her), and sensible for her to come out today and tell us we've got an Inzil-wolf. It would also make sense for Inzil to come out as a fake seer and to claim that he knew Kitanna was a wolf from the start.

However...it's still possible that things are the other way around. And Kitanna is refusing to give the name of the known innocent for some reason. It's only natural that the village would doubt which is real and which is fake. Kitanna, why won't you give the innocent's name to the village unless we trust you? I don't understand that at the moment.

Inzil, you're saying that you were trying from the start to get Kitanna lynched. If that's so, wasn't your talk about vague suspicion a suicidal move? Why did you talk about vague suspicion of her, even though you say you're surprised that they didn't kill you during the night?

[satansaloser2005]

Why do you people pull these pranks while I'm busy? Ugh. So rude.


I'm the seer. I dreamt everyone. You're all guilty. Let's move on.

(Not really. I'll read through the thread again when I get home and see who I believe. It's too early in the game for this silliness....)

[Pitchwife]

Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh. Right. I should point out that if Kit were the real seer, she'd tell us her dream now so we at least gain something from all this. Then again, I'm pretty sure she's not the real seer, so, you know, never mind. I'm going to have some dinner now.


EDIT: Oh, you dirty little....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Right, I'm here, and reading. Bit of luck on the Nessa vote - I noted someone else had seen what I'd seen about her, and something was telling me "bad!" and I had to vote, so. I apologize for my relative lack of being here. I'll do better.

[satansaloser2005]

All quiet on the Werewolf front, it seems. Well, mostly anyway. I'm off to bed, so I'll hopefully see most of you toMorrow.

[Inziladun]

Well, I've been waiting to see if anyone had any concerns I could answer, or anything. I'm sorry, I just need to go to bed now.

If possible I'll try to check in before DL, but don't count on it.

Choose well. I'm done regardless, so good luck.

[Galadriel55]

Copper sounds genuine and innocent.

Pitch, meanwhile, looks less than so:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.

That's a good way of playing a reverse psychology trick on inocents - "they wouldn't think that a wolf would be dumb enough to add (not even correct... add) to another's statement something that could incriminate him" line of thought. A kind of bluff. A wolf would not emphasize his own guiltiness, right? That must make him innocent etc.

I don't like it.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.

And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

7: She lists our odds again. Stating After reading her scenarios this comment doesn't look too good. The village is so small, losing an innocent through a lynch should always matter.

But that's not what copper said. She was stating the possibilities of a Pitch-modfire or no Pitch-modfire. Not a lynch. And she said that it does not make a difference in the short-term, since no one can stop the wolves at night, and for the villagers it wouldn't matter if they lost during the Day r the following Night. But she said that it'd the worst-case scenario and that it would indeed matter in the long-term.

And I think you're being too harsh with us ordinary villagers. It's a big decision, after all. Let us digest all the information and turn it over in our heads a couple times.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I am being quite angry with this village and am going to keep my dream to myself. It's thanks to Zil who refuses to go down, but just wants to confuse things. I'm frustrated and angry. I also have nothing to lose but my own life at this point.

But the village has a victory to lose without that name - not immediately, but eventually?

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

In this suggestion, Pitchwife himself would be the packmate he's suggesting Nessa threw away her vote on. Was this a typo, or something?

More like a moment of objectiveness - or reverse psychology. (See above)


Incidentally, can someone please remind me the policy for tied votes?

---

Now after giving my two cents on the previous comments i can adress the Seer issue.

I am more inclined to believe Kit in this. My reasons:

1. She could have been lynched toDay, but it wasn't such a life-or-death situation that she had to save her hide with a false reveal. She wasn't yelling "lynch Zil instead" on the way to the gallows. She kind of said it out of the blue.

2. She revealed first.

3. What Shasta said about naming the ordo.

4. Zil as a fake Seer would of course name her as a wolf, and it's just too convenient to name Nerwen. Not impossible, but just sooo convenient to name an opponent and a dead person.

5. Since Zil is 50% chance a wolf and I suspect Pitch as the last wolf, it looks too much like the two of them are pushing a Kitwaggon together.


So pretty much Zil has my vote, unless something happens overnight that makes the world (or at least my mind) turn over.

If Kit is lynched regardless and turns out innocent, Zil would be the next one to go and I will be looking really hard at Pitch. However, if by some miracle she turns out to be wolf, Zil will likely not survive the Night and Pitch gets off the hook.


Edit: xed with a bunch

[Coppermirror]

This took me forever to write, and I still haven't come to any conclusions yet.

Summary of Inziladun

DAY 1:
1. Asks me if I've given a pre-emptive defence.
2. Says I'm making a point of distancing myself from the wolves, and that the upside of a small village is that suspicious people are more likely to be wolves than Radagast.
3. Says it's harder for submarines to stay low in a small village. Asks for sub-hunter volunteers.
4. A few small things including "Kit strikes me as a bit off, but it's really a thin thing."
4. Explains more about sub-hunters. Thanks me for clarifying some things about my behaviour.
5. Says I caused an eyebrow raise but he's not going to vote for me on Day 1. Of Kitanna says she "still gives some ill-defined feeling of unease, but that's all. " Considers voting for Shasta or Sally, seemingly joking.
6. Responds to Kitanna's call for his reasons. "Just the feel of the first couple of posts. Like I said, it's pretty thin."
7. Goes to bed, hopes to be back before deadline to vote.
8. Briefly mentions everyone but Shasta and Galadriel. Says he was trying to use me as wolf bait earlier. Wonders who to vote for: Kitanna, Sally or Nessa.
9. Votes Kitanna. Says "If she turns out evil, Nerwen, and especially Nessa, might be packmates. If innocent, Sally will look pretty bad in my eyes."

Day 2.

1. Sees no reason for Nerwen to have been killed. Of his vote, says he "decided that it was more unlikely Sally as a wolf would have latched onto Kit the way she did, than it was that Kit herself was evil. I wasn't all that enthused about voting Kit, I just didn't see any better options." Says things would have changed if he'd seen Nessa's vote.
2. Says "What I said about Coppermirror I saw as both a noteworthy mention, as well as an opportunity to see if anyone else suspiciously latched onto it.
My words about Kit had no such secondary thought behind them." Had thought yesterDay that "it might be that Nerwen, by casting suspicion on Sally for voting Kit, and Nessa for echoing it, might be packmates of Kit".
3. Says "Nessa's vote looks inexplicable. I suppose it's possible she put in a vote for a packmate-Pitch".
4. After Kitanna's post, he claims to be the Seer. Says he voted for Kitanna on Night 1 and was gunning for her with the "vague suspicion". Claims his dream last night was Nerwen.
5. Tried to be vague enough that the wolves wouldn't kill him, but to give enough info that villagers could go after her after his death. Thought that "Nerwen might have been trying to raise Sally as an alternative lynch to Kit" and dreamed of her for that reason.
6. Votes for Kitanna.
7. Says people are free to ask questions.
8. Gives his opinions of guilt/innocence.

Of me: probably innocent.
Of G55: probably innocent.
Of Sally: doesn't strike him as a likely wolf.
Of Shasta: doesn't come to a firm conclusion. Mistrusts him in general. Wonders why he would vote for Nessawolf if he's also a wolf.
Of Pitch: finds him enigmatic. Likes his skepticism in sorting between the Seers. Wonders why Nessa went for him: a throwaway vote, or a wolf wanting to vote for a packmate who was unlikely to be lynched?
Of Eomer: trips his radar. Thinks Eomer deliberately misunderstood his intentions with his plan earlier. "his vote for Sally could be his picking up on what Nerwen had said, trying to divert things away from Nessa"

9. Leaves to go to bed. "If possible I'll try to check in before DL, but don't count on it. "

Summary of Kitanna

DAY 1:
1. Two very trivial posts with little content. Understandable given the point in time. Leaves.
2. Comes back, says it seems as if not much has happened and she'll be reading what's happened.
3. Asks for a reason for Inzil's vague feelings of suspicion. "I'd like a reason. I've said almost nothing."
4. Says there's not much she can say that hasn't been said and resaid.
5. Says Eomer must know the game has started. (Not suspicious.)
6. "I guess I woke up just in time to see votes garnered against me for being vaguely uncomfortable and creepy." Says will probably vote for Inzil as doesn't like his vague feeling and doesn't like the way he claimed to have tried baiting people with me and not her.
7. Votes for Inzil. "I don't trust anything he's said. I'm especially annoyed that he claimed to "bait" Coppermirror, but accused me."

DAY 2:
1. Claims to be the Seer, and claims that she's seen Inzil is a wolf. Says she assumed she would be lynched yesterDay and almost didn't make it.
2. Claims to have dreamt of an innocent on Night 1, and Inzil on Night 2. Says she has a terrible record as a Seer and that sacrificing herself now makes sense.
3. Says that there's nothing she can do to convince us of her innocence over Zil's fake reveal, and that Zil wants us to waste the day. Says that Zil's other dream is conveniently dead. Refuses to give the name of a living known innocent to a village which doesn't trust her.
4. Responds to Pitchwife's concern about why she won't reveal the Innocent: "I've given you a wolf already. And if that still gets me lynched I don't feel inclined to help this village further. I will reveal my dream if this village trusts me enough to lynch Zil." and "You may all waste the day trying to decide who you want to believe. I have nothing left to say on the topic. Once I get back to my house I will concentrate on finding the third wolf."
5. Analyses a number of villagers.

Of me: "That makes me wary, but I'm not sold on her as guilty. I'm not convinced she's innocent either. I'd like to see what else she has to say".
Of Shasta: Thinks he looks slightly innocent because he gave the first vote for Nessa. Doesn't like that he didn't give much of a reason for that vote.
Of Sally: Says she looks like a frustrated innocent crunched for time.
Of Galadriel55: Doesn't know what to make of her. Agrees with her point that a vote for someone who isn't there is easy to hide behind. Thinks it's interesting so many of her suspects are dead, and though she can see her steering votes to packmates, doesn't know if it would happen on Day 1.
Of Eomer: Thinks he may well be Wolf#3. Wants a closer watch kept on him regardless of what happens toDay.
Of Pitch: "Pitch is probably innocent."

She also adds that "I am being quite angry with this village and am going to keep my dream to myself. It's thanks to Zil who refuses to go down, but just wants to confuse things. I'm frustrated and angry. I also have nothing to lose but my own life at this point."

6. Responds to Sally's vote for her with a mock vote for herself. "Just don't kill Sally. She's my other packmate."

This post is getting long, so I'm going to consider my suspicions in a second one. (I still have to write it! This is taking quite some time.)

Anyway, my initial position was one of suspicion for Inzil because it seemed as if a wolf-Kitanna would have little to gain from coming forward. But once Kitanna started posting more about being the Seer, she started sounding really suspicious for her sudden anger at the village and refusal to name the other known innocent (...but I don't see what a wolf would have to gain from that). I'm not confident enough to come to any conclusions yet. I want to consider everything carefully. I'm going to get back to a proper analysis now.

But for the meantime, Kitanna, if you're around now and if you're the Seer, why are you angry with the village? Why are you abandoning us? Please come back and give us the name of the known innocent.

Unfortunately I wasn't here early enough to ask Inzil questions. Although I haven't got any questions in mind yet, I'm sure I will soon.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm back! And it appears quite a bit(of banter? ) has ocurred in my absence. There are votes already, as well! I can see the Kit suspicion as being relatively okay considering it's only day 1 with not much to go on - we're all pretty much grasping for straws.

But I'm not sure I like the way sally ends up latching onto Inzil's random unease with Kit, admittedly upon much the same reasoning.