WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

We're doomed.

Not really. After all, there are only three wolves, whereas there are yet five innocents who can band together. If we lynch a wolf toDay, I think the village stands a fair chance of winning this. If we lynch an innocent toDay, yeah, it's a pickle, but it's still not the doom you present it to be at the moment.

Unless of course you're just trying to destroy village morale, in which case, do feel free to continue your attempts, because it won't work on me.


In other news, look at that. For once a modfire worked out in the innocents' favor. It's about time.



x'd with Nerwen

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

In other news, look at that. For once a modfire worked out in the innocents' favor. It's about time.

Oops... I'm so used to bad news I had totally ignored that Glirdy was the cobbler (from a neutral POV: oh what a role wasted there...).

Well, that changes things.

Hah, I was already entertaining the idea of "revealing" myself as the cobbler and trying to lure the wolves or/and the cobbler into the open - but the tie-votes -ruling kind of destroyed the idea. Good I didn't do that. It would have looked pretty odd to reveal oneself as a dead-person's role.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Having a Cobbler dead, I think, sort of compensates for the death of two people, and maybe it is still better than having him actively messing around (although Glirdan wasn't very active). Nog's "prophecies of doom" are certainly rather overdone, but looking at the number of players, a live Cobbler could have been potentially dangerous, maybe not toDay, but soon.

In any case, one question for start toDay would be why Lommy was killed, if there can be any lead, because she wasn't very active (or distinctive in some special way), I'd say, except for her following Agan to vote for sally in the end of the previous Day.

There are many questions still existing and now it sort of seems that lynching G55 yesterDay did not actually clarify as much as I hoped it would, though at least it "clears space" for other things. Of the things it clarifies, it might possibly be only the thing that the votes of Nog and sally on Day 1 were not Wolves saving a packmate, though that of course does not rule out the possibility of the two of them being Wolves still. Also, it basically did end up being the way Nerwen feared and it was almost unambiguous vote (maybe that was also one reason for the WWs targeting Lommy, eliminating a person from the "different camp", so that eventually it would be more difficult to determine anything about the votes? Though there would probably be more reasons than just this, but it sounds rather logical to me).

As I won't be here for the DL toDay and basically the second half of toDay in general, I will try to play now and in the evening (my time). I am going to quickly take a look at Lommy's posts now, likewise it might be perhaps worth it to review Glirdy's posts, even though he probably did not have time to Cobble around much. I would also still like to take a look at Agan as I intended and maybe some of the submarines, like Shasta or Kath.

Will be around...

[Nogrod]

You do walk in interestingly ambiguos terrain Legate, and that makes me quite uneasy.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Nog's "prophecies of doom" are certainly rather overdone, but looking at the number of players, a live Cobbler could have been potentially dangerous, maybe not toDay, but soon.

No. We would have lost toDay.

Three wolf votes + one cobbler vote = 4. Now there are four innocents, but unlike the wolves & at this situation the cobbler, they can't co-operate. Add to that the fact that wolves & cobbler will probably look into the thread in time and be interested to get the picture... so they'd had all it takes to secure four votes first.

Luckily I was wrong as the cobbler is dead.

There are many questions still existing and now it sort of seems that lynching G55 yesterDay did not actually clarify as much as I hoped it would, though at least it "clears space" for other things. Of the things it clarifies, it might possibly be only the thing that the votes of Nog and sally on Day 1 were not Wolves saving a packmate

No. It is not "might" or "possibly". It definitively proved it. G55 was an ordo, if you have "forgotten" that.

I though it would be redundant or at least not worthwhile to remid you that all the suspicion you might have gathered from D1 voting is now obsolete. Dead, gone, kaputt, over and dealt with.

But it looks like Legate is too happy to try and keep up that suspicion that it makes me, as I said, quite uneasy.

Originally Posted by Legate

(maybe that was also one reason for the WWs targeting Lommy, eliminating a person from the "different camp", so that eventually it would be more difficult to determine anything about the votes? Though there would probably be more reasons than just this, but it sounds rather logical to me).

Now this sounds believable, well possible at least. How nicely you manage to get under the skin of a possible wolf-train of thought!

We need some new openings toDay as it looks like we have stuck on wrong trails the first two Days, and we just can't afford a mislynch anymore.

After saying that I have to make a similar kind of announcement Legate made. I will be coming back before going to sleep and will probably have some time then. On the latter end of the Day I'm able to come in for a shortish time, but not for long. Sorry.

[Nogrod]

Shasta, Legate, Nerwen!!!

Just thought about new openings and tried to think who are the persons who have received little or no suspicion thus far... Scary list.

Okay. No time to pursue that or any other combination of players right now. Hopefully something better, later.

[Nogrod]

PS. I still suspect Sally though, because of her totally unmerited and sudden buddy-buddying and tip-toeing from yesterDay.

[Meneltarmacil]

As per my previous Days' statements, we should stand a good chance of finding a wolf if we look at the G55 bandwagon.

Specifically, I don't think a wolf actually started it, and probably did a back-and-forth "G55 or Pitchwife?" thing on Day 1.

After Day 1, much of the focus of conversations was on G55, who warned us that we should really look around at other people. A wolf in this case was probably trying to make sure that didn't happen. So we should be looking for someone who, during Day 2, kept trying to redirect suspicion onto G55.

I'll post an analysis of who that might be later.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

No. We would have lost toDay.

Three wolf votes + one cobbler vote = 4. Now there are four innocents, but unlike the wolves & at this situation the cobbler, they can't co-operate. Add to that the fact that wolves & cobbler will probably look into the thread in time and be interested to get the picture... so they'd had all it takes to secure four votes first.

Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow. Okay, technically it is possible, but anyway, doesn't the Cobbler still count as innocent in the tally? So we won't have lost toDay. Anyway, this is irrelevant now anyway.

No. It is not "might" or "possibly". It definitively proved it. G55 was an ordo, if you have "forgotten" that.

I am not saying "it might possibly mean these weren't Wolves saving a buddy votes", I am saying "it might possibly be the only extra thing we learned from G55's death". That was the point of the paragraph, as you can see.

We need some new openings toDay as it looks like we have stuck on wrong trails the first two Days, and we just can't afford a mislynch anymore.

Whereas I agree that we definitely should be very careful and reevaluate stuff, it does not mean dropping entirely everything. I mean, for example for me, it really did not change that much. Your and sally's vote on Day 1 wasn't a Wolf-saving-Wolf vote, that is clear, but it does not change anything about the rest of the stuff you have been saying that I considered suspicious throughout previous Days. And of course, you being earlier under some scrutiny (also by dead Lommy, nonetheless!), now trying to completely erase everything we have been gathering in the past sounds rather... well, fishy. Does not really make me see you any better.

So here. I am going to take a look at Kath and Shasta and Agan, most of all, but it will be kind of spread throughout the whole evening...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow. Okay, technically it is possible, but anyway, doesn't the Cobbler still count as innocent in the tally? So we won't have lost toDay. Anyway, this is irrelevant now anyway.

How about the cobbler saying: "Hi wolves, tell me what to do". That was my immediate plan of impersonating the cobbler after I saw we were reduced to 8 players. But then I saw the rule considering ties - and then I was told the cobbler was no more...

But yes, that is redundant now.

I am not saying "it might possibly mean these weren't Wolves saving a buddy votes", I am saying "it might possibly be the only extra thing we learned from G55's death". That was the point of the paragraph, as you can see.

Ahh, okay. I did read it the other way, but I guess you're right. *language*

Originally Posted by Leg

Whereas I agree that we definitely should be very careful and reevaluate stuff, it does not mean dropping entirely everything. I mean, for example for me, it really did not change that much. Your and sally's vote on Day 1 wasn't a Wolf-saving-Wolf vote, that is clear, but it does not change anything about the rest of the stuff you have been saying that I considered suspicious throughout previous Days.

Naturally we should not drop "entirely everything". Heh, I'm not sure how suspicious I should take your wordings to be, though. "Entirely everythnig"? You really thought someone suggested that?

I actually posted a postscript saying I'm still suspicious of Sally, but because of something she did yesterDay, not because of her vote on D1.

I just hope we all are able to separate the two things when facing time-constraints or other such stuff. We just can't vote wrong toDay.