WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, why do you say that?

Because, looking at his posts, he seems a very convenient kill. On the other hand, possibly the wolves saw him as the Seer. The first argument sounds more probable. Inzil did not leave that clear a clue, so either the wolves indeed were really really sharp (possible) and omned on him because he was the Seer, or they thought he would be a good misleading village-confusing kill (probable), or a bit of both - he's a good kill, and maybe a Seer (also pretty probable). But to kill him solely because he's the Seer - man, the wolves have to be sharp - which doesn't make it impossible, only less probable.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

...and really only gives a solid statement on Pitch (and perhaps [b]Nogrod, but as it's based on an emoticon...) while also saying this -

- which is extremely confusing; if you don't agree with Pitch's perspective (hence being suspicious of him on your list), how can his vote be okay?

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fair enough, but then I'm a little confused by what you find suspicious. Is it just that Kath came out of the gate asking questions about the role, or what?

I think Agan was referring to herself when she said “hypocritical”; she called out Kath for bringing up the cobbler, but admitted that she does it herself when she plays in a game with a cobbler, which makes her hypocritical.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. I had to check back as to what Menel actually said, and the following is the thing making me uneasy with him:

Now, first of all, if there are three Days we only lynch innocents - and the wolves score effectively during the Night - we have basically lost as the wolves only need to ask for the cobbler to vote with them on D4. In case we had chances on D4 (like ranger made a succesful save one Night) then I think it is essential we look at everyone as thoroughly as we can because that lynch decides whether the game continues or whether we lose. So any "let's lynch the influential people" default-setting is basically dangerous rather than helpful.

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

The way you flip-flop about him, too – you defend him in one post, but then list a number of reasons (f.ex. #74) for why you could suspect him, and back and forth.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I kind of agree with you here. But the problem for me is that she always is like that and ends up lynched on D1 just because - and more often innocent than not.

That's quite close. Mostly Day 2, though. Wanna continue the pattern?



PITCH SUSPICION - well, it kind of just flew up right after Pitch's vote. And then people started voting for him one after the other. What alerts me is that Nog was the second last (crossed with third last and last) person to vote, though he flew at Pitch the moment he (ie Pitch) wrote his pre-vote suspicion on him.

There's not much to be gained by analysing it this way, I see.

What I would like to say, though, is that I would put my money on Menelbeing Inzil's dream. In post #55

Originally Posted by Inzil

Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

He clearly concentrates on Menel here.

Meanwhile, Nog doesn't look all that good. If anything, he's topping my list of suspects toDay.


Edit: xed with sally