WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

I think I can see what you mean Menel, but what is actually your point in here? Are you wishing to start a crusade against those who try to influence others' opinions aka. are playing the game already on D1?

EDIT: Xd with Legate

[Pitchwife]

Thoughts on those who have posted so far:

Gal55 - content-free first post, can be anything.

Zil - mostly commenting, reasonable points, basically his standard inscrutable self; defends Menel against me (which I actually like).

Lommy - sick, therefore excused.

Menel - has been a bit Captain Obvious and theoretical up to now, but his elaboration on his first post is sound enough, and his reaction to me doesn't strike me as particularly wolvish. Anyway, like Legate said, I'd need a good reason to vote him D1 in his first game in ages.

Legate - posting behaviour similar to Zil, reasonable stuff, wishy-washy as far as suspicions go (which is nothing new), except he seems to feel good about Kath.

Kath - "interested and active", yes, and I find no fault in wanting to discuss the new and improved(TM) cobbler, but the piece from her last post I paraphrased seems to me to be thinking too much from the perspective of the wolves.

Agan - don't trust her farther than I can throw her on general principle, but there's nothing especially alerting yet, except maybe the bit about me being the cobbler, where I'm not sure whether she was teasing me, suspecting me or hinting at me (probably not the latter, too obvious).

- The above was written before everybody started talking, especially before Gal accused Menel, which is exactly the sort of latching-on I hoped to provoke by poking at him (and yes, Menel, I think we've all got what your point was by now). And look, Nog is doing it too, casting some doubt but not actually committing to anything. I don't approve. As for his point about Zil, I'll need that explained to me, because I don't really get what he's trying to say.

Btw, I have to vote within the next half hour or so, DL being in the middle of my workday. I could imagine voting Kath for that wolf-think quote, but we'll see.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Umm, innocents? We don't want the pick to go through!

No, we don't, but whatever happens if the cobbler is Night-killed has no bearing on how we play, because the Night kill is out of our hands, so it concerns us much less than it does the wolves.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And look, Nog is doing it too, casting some doubt but not actually committing to anything. I don't approve.

Now where is your commitment with 40 posts on D1? Or anyone elses'?

Just asking before you decide to make the lack of committed cases reason to vote... I mean you don't have twelve votes but just one...


PS. I'm going to sleep as well pretty soon, but will still participate and vote later...

[Glirdan]

Good morning everybody....or is it afternoon? This weary thespian has been loosing track of time and days for just over a fortnight now and had not realized the sun had risen. (RL: Seriously, my days are just one giant day lately and completely forgot).

However, I am here and shall inform myself of the going ons of this heinous crime!! For I....I....Dangit...forgot my line again....

Alright, enough IC.

Here, reading, will hopefully post shortly. I too may have to vote early, or not....depends on whether or not I can keep myself awake until 8 in the morning....and seeing as I'm currently busy with a show, the likelihood of that is slim to none. But I will be able to stick around and have some chatter for the better part of the Day. Now on to some reading.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now where is your commitment with 40 posts on D1? Or anyone elses'?

What has the number of posts got to do with it? You don't need x pages of thread to suspect somebody for a reason and stick to it. As in: I suspect you for picking up a point about Menel second hand from Gal55 who picked it up from me and using it to put pressure on him while keeping open a back door by saying it may just be his playing style. And yes, it's D1, so I may be wrong. That's life.

And yes, I'm going to stick to it.
++Nogrod

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think I can see what you mean Menel, but what is actually your point in here? Are you wishing to start a crusade against those who try to influence others' opinions aka. are playing the game already on D1?

EDIT: Xd with Legate

I'm not. Influential people are not the problem.

Influential wolves, however, are. I've seen many villages brought down by silver-tongued beasts who have manipulated everyone into following them. I just don't want it to happen here.

[Meneltarmacil]

Sorry, did not have much time to finish the last post.

While the wolves may use a variety of playing styles, the most dangerous is the one who can manipulate the village, and as such, we need to be aware that a string of "bad luck" may not be entirely caused by chance.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What has the number of posts got to do with it? You don't need x pages of thread to suspect somebody for a reason and stick to it.

Obviously. And sorry for the bad phrasing... and you Pitch know that too - that it was bad phrasing * which someone like you would not have used as a pretext to partly justify your vote... which in turn makes me suspect you as I can see only a wolf or a total noob cling into that kind of a point. How this game is!

* saying 40 posts obviously is no criteria as there have been occasions (not too many, but there have been a few games) where people have made great points, hard questions, bad answers, revealing comments, tough Q&A etc. in the first page of a WW-game. So of course the number of posts as such is no criteria, but in 9 games out of 10 (or 8, blah-blah), suffice to say "normally" the first page gives one little or no clue as to what is going on - and this game looked like just one of those games...

As in: I suspect you for picking up a point about Menel second hand from Gal55 who picked it up from me and using it to put pressure on him while keeping open a back door by saying it may just be his playing style.

Forgive me my silly question, but where do I pick a suspection by you on Menel? Aren't you now just admitting you tried out something? And if you admit you tried out something how come you think no one else ever tries out something as well? tsk-tsk.

Or should I vote you because you "made a point about Menel"? The reason behind that vote would be as good as yours...

I mean really, I took part in a discussion about one of the persons who had raised most discussion to give my two cents on it and was actually asking only for the motive for Menel to state the obvious the way he did (I'm still curious about that) and then actually went back thinking him less probably a wolf because of a) his long absence, and b) because of our history of me suspecting him so many times before because of the way he plays.

And yes, it's D1, so I may be wrong. That's life.

That sounds too much like you know already beforehand that you are "wrong"...

Now do you?


Good night (RL) and good luck...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Influential wolves, however, are. I've seen many villages brought down by silver-tongued beasts who have manipulated everyone into following them.

I have seen that happen a time or two. Sure. From the 50+ games I've played I've seen one or two. Maybe five years ago. Or something.

So my problem with your "crusade" (sorry about that word) is that it is totally overdone and a bit misguided. There have been loud wolves trying to do that but they have been lynched soon enough basically every time. I mean anytime someone manages to convince others to lynch A or B and they turn out innocents that person gets lynched even if he is innocent (I should know that)... and actually that's the reason why the wolves love loudmouths who are wrong.

So it's been a long time I have seen any wolf trying to openly lead the village as they know it's their downfall as sooner rather than later they will be lynched.

But yeah, it's been a long time since you last played and the dynamics have somewhat changed while you have been away. You'll see...

It is still fun, though.

[Galadriel55]

Back and reading...

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Not that I'd think our seer is dumb or anything, but she shouldn't forget about the cobbler before revealing if she hasn't targeted her before.

Oh, you're doing it again, this time for the Seer AND the cobbler. What's up with you?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Look at my last post and you'll see I'm also the seer.

Yeah. Which one are you?

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I seem to recall Agan having a habit of calling the Cobbler "she". Why? Ask the wind why it blows.

The Seer too, eh?

I don't remember Agan refering to an unknown role as a "she" before. Well, I would have had to learn that sooner or later. I apologize to the village for messing things, and - of course - I clear that point on Agan.

But I was so excited when I saw it!...

I hope you're better soon, sally! And Lommy!

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

edit2: am I the only who keeps switching the words in the thread title the other way around? I know, I'm corrupted and should go to bed...

<3 lol! ^^

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The case of Agan calling everyone "she" is well-known, so it would hardly raise my eyebrows.

Maybe I forgot, or I just haven't played enough games with Agan, but this is the first time I see this habbit.

Originally Posted by Legate

I think [Menel] said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance.

There's a difference between being sensible and being sensible and obvious. Saying "wolves are bad" is also a pretty logical and sensible thing. Where I'm getting at, is that I get what you're saying about Menel's posts being true and substancial, but I also get the other side of it, that they are what is to be understood without having to say it.

I find Menel's posts kinda awkward; not because he's saying the obvious truth, but because of how hard he defends it. When people commented on how he posts (ie being obvious), he repeated his point again with elaboration and etc., but was no less obvious. It's not like anyone disagrees with what he says, it's how he says it, and this does not change from post to post. I'll keep in mind that he is back from a very big break, and unless there's some more substancial point against him I wouldn't consider him more suspicious than most.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

While the wolves may use a variety of playing styles, the most dangerous is the one who can manipulate the village, and as such, we need to be aware that a string of "bad luck" may not be entirely caused by chance.

Menel, please understand this - no one's questioning what you say. We know this, and we agree. People are questioning why you are saying it, since it's not something one can't figure out from reading the general guidelines to WW.


I'll put up a list of some sort a bit later.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitch

This is kind of obvious - actually, a little too obvious for my taste. Or should it be read as "Hear me, packmates, and keep a low profile while we help the loudmouths lynch each other"?

Perhaps, but doesn't it make more sense that a Wolftarmacil would have just said that to his packmates during the night, instead of attempting to hint to his fellows on-thread when we're all watching?

Originally Posted by Pitch

Actually, what it does scream is "gratuitous Skyrim reference";

I got it.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Rather, it would be in the wolves' interest to bring attention to the cobbler.

Normally, I can see that. Given how useful the cobbler is to the wolves this game, though (rather more than your run-of-the-mill cobbler), I don't know that I agree with this statement. I would think it would benefit the wolves more to keep attention off their Gifted-blocker.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I'd also like to add that with the Cobbler's extra abilities this go around, there ought not to be anyone saying something "Leave X be; just a Cobbler".

Shasta agreeing with Inzil? On anything? What is the world coming to? I do agree with this, though (of course, I've been saying not to ignore the Cobbler for a long time, too.)

Originally Posted by Pitch

Never mind what I said above about cobbler discussion in general, who but the wolves would need to worry about that?

Translation - "I've hit on a perfect way to be able to suspect anyone; all they have to do is ask a question about a role we've never seen before!"

Pitch is pinging my radar.

Originally Posted by G55

This looks a bit overly defensive/dramatic for my taste. And this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
However, even if innocents are lynching innocents, you can bet that there will be at least one wolf making sure his fellows aren't going to the noose. Whether he is making the major arguments himself or merely reinforcing those made by the gullible, I still expect a wolf or two to be involved when multiple innocents are lynched in a row.
...is the second time you're stating the obvious.

I don't know your playing style, and it might have changed anyways over your absence, and playing for the first time after a big break can be nervewracking, I guess, but you do sound a bit too concerned.

This bothers me. The timing is interesting - G55 is the third person to jump on the "Menel is too obvious" bandwagon. And have you really not played enough with Agan to know that she refers to all roles as "she"?

Originally Posted by Agan

Which means that the way Kath initiated the cobbler talk raised my hackles a tiny bit

You're right, this is a bit hypocritical. What I don't really care for, though, is the way you yourself mentioned it and then laughed it off as though it doesn't really matter. Why is it that Kath seems suspicious for talking about the cobbler, yet you don't?

Originally Posted by Inzil

Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.

I'm agreeing with Inzil again. Inzil, what exactly did you put in this brew of yours...?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now it may be I'm also in a bit of rust, but to me Zil's point about the cobbler needing to avoid Night-kills kind of raised some alarms.

I didn't really think about it until Nog's post, but that seems to me just as much "stating the obvious" as Menel was doing earlier... which also makes me wonder why those who pounced on Menel for it (Pitch, my shining star, G55) didn't also pounce on Inzil.

Originally Posted by Menel

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

Also, if there's a period of three or more Days in which only innocents have been lynched, we've already lost (unless the Ranger is awesome, and even then, the odds suck.)

Whew, I think that's pretty much everything thus far. Dear light, might I trouble you for another drink? Thirsty work, and all that.

[Meneltarmacil]

Inzil's post does seem a bit suspicious to me, despite my disagreement with Nogrod thus far, in a "psst, cobbler, give us some hints so we don't eat you" way.

What is stranger still, as Shasta pointed out, was the lack of reaction to this statement of Inzil's and so far only Nogrod seems to regard it as "off."

[Inziladun]

Whew. Dealing with rough weather here tonight! I think I'm one of the few around here who has electricity.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The case of Agan calling everyone "she" is well-known, so it would hardly raise my eyebrows. But as for G55's vehement case, I can see her becoming intent on exploring some issue like that, so I am not intent to putting much behind either issue.

Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

More interestingly, what's up with Lommy and Nog suspecting Menel? I think he said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance. I just wonder if this is the thing I remember from ages ago, when Menel was playing and very often he ended up victim of some random accusation. I'd be wary of that, especially on Day 1.

Agreed. The whole thing about Menel looks like the beginning stirrings of a bandwagon.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Thoughts on those who have posted so far:

Gal55 - content-free first post, can be anything.

Zil - mostly commenting, reasonable points, basically his standard inscrutable self; defends Menel against me (which I actually like).

Lommy - sick, therefore excused.

Menel - has been a bit Captain Obvious and theoretical up to now, but his elaboration on his first post is sound enough, and his reaction to me doesn't strike me as particularly wolvish. Anyway, like Legate said, I'd need a good reason to vote him D1 in his first game in ages.

Legate - posting behaviour similar to Zil, reasonable stuff, wishy-washy as far as suspicions go (which is nothing new), except he seems to feel good about Kath.

Kath - "interested and active", yes, and I find no fault in wanting to discuss the new and improved(TM) cobbler, but the piece from her last post I paraphrased seems to me to be thinking too much from the perspective of the wolves.

Agan - don't trust her farther than I can throw her on general principle, but there's nothing especially alerting yet, except maybe the bit about me being the cobbler, where I'm not sure whether she was teasing me, suspecting me or hinting at me (probably not the latter, too obvious).

- The above was written before everybody started talking, especially before Gal accused Menel, which is exactly the sort of latching-on I hoped to provoke by poking at him (and yes, Menel, I think we've all got what your point was by now). And look, Nog is doing it too, casting some doubt but not actually committing to anything. I don't approve. As for his point about Zil, I'll need that explained to me, because I don't really get what he's trying to say.

Btw, I have to vote within the next half hour or so, DL being in the middle of my workday. I could imagine voting Kath for that wolf-think quote, but we'll see.

I don't know if I really think Kath is all that suspicious just based on that quote. As someone pointed out, couldn't the wolves PM the moddess instead of risking saying that here? Could be she just wasn't thinking, but still....

Pitch mostly makes sense, but every so often something, like the Kath suspicion, makes me wonder. And the vote for Nog sure was sudden.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Perhaps, but doesn't it make more sense that a Wolftarmacil would have just said that to his packmates during the night, instead of attempting to hint to his fellows on-thread when we're all watching?

Agreed! Have we stumbled into a parallel universe?

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This bothers me. The timing is interesting - G55 is the third person to jump on the "Menel is too obvious" bandwagon. And have you really not played enough with Agan to know that she refers to all roles as "she"?

Yeah, like I said , I'm rather bothered by G55. I'll probably have to vote soon, and she may be my pick.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm agreeing with Inzil again. Inzil, what exactly did you put in this brew of yours...?

Sorry, but it's a house secret. And bark from trees in the Old Forest is definitely not an ingredient.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I didn't really think about it until Nog's post, but that seems to me just as much "stating the obvious" as Menel was doing earlier... which also makes me wonder why those who pounced on Menel for it (Pitch, my shining star, G55) didn't also pounce on Inzil.

I don't know either. Are you trying to incite them to do so?

[Inziladun]

Ok. It's bedtime, and with the morning madness that is my weekday routine, I may or may not make back before DL.

I guess I can see Pitch's point on Nog, and it's tempting to follow Pitch's lead there. However, I think that in the totality of circumstance, G55 looks worse.

++G55

Choose well.

[Galadriel55]

Shasta - still toiling through the snow, it seems.

Menel - oy vey. Why so concentrated on proving a truth that already has been proven, when he is questioned based on why he posts it rather the content itself? Menel concentrated on this one issue, though he didn't actually comment directly on it, without participating in others. I can't say that an obsession with proving the obvious truth is signalling a wolf, though, and since there's hardly aught else there's not much to go on. I suppose I'll accept what others have said about this being his playing style (since they would know better than me) and letting it go for toDay.

Glirdan - still reading.

G55 - *waves*

Nerwen - hard to tell, which is nothing new.

Legate - makes me alert, but no red light yet. Can't really say where the ill-at-ease feeling is comming from.

Pitchwife - I think he is overly suspicious of Kath's question about the cobbler pick going through. Or, rather, he gives me the vibe that he's expectant of people to side with him, even wanting people to side with him (Mostly referring to #21). However, his vote for Nog is not unreasonable from his perspective.

Nogrod - doesn't look too out-of-character. Says what he would normally say. Except... see note on bottom.

Lommy – sick, therefore excused. I love her for saying that I "mess around" on Day Ones, cause that's what usually ends up happening. Objectively speaking, she looks ok.

Inzil - seems like the same innocent Inzil I've seen in previous games.

Agan - is Agan *sigh*. She's a cobbler whatever her actual role.

Sally - full of migrane, therefore excused.

Kath - Despite the suspicion, I rather like that she brought up the cobbler, since it gave people something to discuss. And the questions she asks (eg about the narration) are something an innocent could ask just as much as a wolf, so in my opinion they don't show any particular wolvishness.



NOTE:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now where is your commitment with 40 posts on D1? Or anyone elses'?

This is the one thing about Nog that bothers me, but it's so trivial it's bound to be ridiculous. Somehow, I can't imagine Nog saying that with a "" on his face. I'd expect his expression to be more like "". Was he trying to "be nice" to avoid Pitchie's oncoming vote?

Blargh, this is worse that the "she-cobbler" case. I can't build proper cases on Day1. ><

EDIT: xed since my last. Shasta's here!!!

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This bothers me. The timing is interesting - G55 is the third person to jump on the "Menel is too obvious" bandwagon. And have you really not played enough with Agan to know that she refers to all roles as "she"?

Apparently not, since I honestly don't remember such a thing from the past. As for the timing, well, you expect someone to react to suspicion, not repeat the reason for the suspicion. Which is why my post, which talks about the second time suspicious behaviour is repeated, could not possibly have come before the suspicion itself. And I cross-posted with Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Yeah, like I said , I'm rather bothered by G55.

I'm a rather bothersome person. Especially when I have too much free time on my hands and too high a post count.

[Galadriel55]

Well, I have to go to bed soon, otherwise my head will feel like a brick tomorrow. Looking at my list, Pitch is the one who gives me the most bad vibes. See the list for my thoughts on him.

++PITCH




Incidentally, what was the decision for ties? I don't think this point was ever clarified...

[Meneltarmacil]

I think I'll vote now, and it will be for

++Inziladun

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Well, I have to go to bed soon, otherwise my head will feel like a brick tomorrow. Looking at my list, Pitch is the one who gives me the most bad vibes. See the list for my thoughts on him.

++PITCH




Incidentally, what was the decision for ties? I don't think this point was ever clarified...

Ehhh. I don't like this at all. G55's first suspicion was on Menel, and it was bandwagony. In her list, though, she backs off Menel (because of the opposition it's getting?) and really only gives a solid statement on Pitch (and perhaps [b]Nogrod, but as it's based on an emoticon...) while also saying this -

Originally Posted by G55

However, his vote for Nog is not unreasonable from his perspective.

- which is extremely confusing; if you don't agree with Pitch's perspective (hence being suspicious of him on your list), how can his vote be okay?

Summa summarum - G55 suspects Menel until opposition is too strong, and backs off, going instead for Pitch with odd/weird/confusing reasoning. I don't disagree that Pitch is suspicious (cf. my previous post - he does seem like he's jumping at the chance to blow up incredibly minor things into full-fledged suspicion), but I think I'm more suspicious of G55.

++G55

[Nerwen]

Back. Reading.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

While the wolves may use a variety of playing styles, the most dangerous is the one who can manipulate the village

The most dangerous is the one who survives, and it's often easier to survive if you stay out of the spotlight and play it smooth. That's why I prefer to vote for a quiet player if I have no better option. I'm still not quite as sceptical as Nog, though - I've seen bold wolves lead the village by the nose more than once or twice and survive to win.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Oh, you're doing it again, this time for the Seer AND the cobbler. What's up with you?

In a language with gender-specific pronouns, everyone is female for me unless proven otherwise. If you've played with me before, you've seen me do it - but I seem to remember you've had a tendency to die early whenever we've played together.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Normally, I can see that. Given how useful the cobbler is to the wolves this game, though (rather more than your run-of-the-mill cobbler), I don't know that I agree with this statement. I would think it would benefit the wolves more to keep attention off their Gifted-blocker.

Normally, the cobbler has no special abilities to help the wolves with. No one will spot the cobbler just because we talk about her (unless she makes an obvious slip ), but the wolves might not be particularly averse to bringing it up to test the ice and see if anyone returns their cobbler signals. Just because they wouldn't want to kill their little helper by accident, now would they?

You're right, this is a bit hypocritical. What I don't really care for, though, is the way you yourself mentioned it and then laughed it off as though it doesn't really matter. Why is it that Kath seems suspicious for talking about the cobbler, yet you don't?

You've completely misinterpreted what I said. I laughed about being hypocritical because I said talking about the cobbler may be a sign of wolvery while I always do it myself, no matter my role. I didn't say Kath is suspicious for doing it but because of how she brought it up.

I'm agreeing with Inzil again. Inzil, what exactly did you put in this brew of yours...?

I often find it easier to agree with people I normally don't when we're packmates.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I don't know if I really think Kath is all that suspicious just based on that quote. As someone pointed out, couldn't the wolves PM the moddess instead of risking saying that here? Could be she just wasn't thinking, but still....

It's not as if a wolf asked it for the benefit of the rest of the pack but for the cobbler.

[Aganzir]

Okay here's what I have.

I don't necessarily suspect Kath for starting to talk about the cobbler. She was the first person I reacted to, but there had been very little talk so far.

Menel is a dilemma because it would be dangerous to ignore him just because he always looks suspicious.

I think Shasta looks relatively good despite misquoting me.

G55 was grasping at straws with me and to an extent Nog. I remember her being suspected because of grasping at straws before, and I'm not entirely clear about who xed with whom in the Menel episode. I could find her suspicious though, but I'd rather not just yet.

Nog and Pitch are being odd. Nog was jumpy when accused. He's always jumpy when accused though. Pitch should know there's rarely lots of content on day 1, Nog should know you don't need lots of posts for content.

Inzil is smooth.

Of anyone else I don't have a clear idea. Not that these are very clear either.

Hmm.

I'll basically have to vote now.

++Pitch

He's the one I feel the most comfortable voting.

Ps. a message for Lommy who I know will appreciate it: you haven't seen before how looks the trumpet!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by My Orient Pearl

But that seems to me just as much "stating the obvious" as Menel was doing earlier... which also makes me wonder why those who pounced on Menel for it (Pitch, my shining star, G55) didn't also pounce on Inzil.

Speaking for myself, I didn't notice it. Menel kept defending his point, and making a song-and-dance about it, so of course it got more attention.

This bothers me. The timing is interesting - G55 is the third person to jump on the "Menel is too obvious" bandwagon. And have you really not played enough with Agan to know that she refers to all roles as "she"?

G55 did cross with me, though. And I'm not sure how often she's played with Agan– maybe she really didn't know. Though that's rather beside the point– she must know Agan's a veteran player, anyway, and that "she", if a slip, would be the kind only a newbie makes– more than once, anyway.

EDIT:X'd with Agan.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Agan

The most dangerous is the one who survives, and it's often easier to survive if you stay out of the spotlight and play it smooth. That's why I prefer to vote for a quiet player if I have no better option. I'm still not quite as sceptical as Nog, though - I've seen bold wolves lead the village by the nose more than once or twice and survive to win.

On that note, Nog seems to have entirely forgotten about Shastawolf in the last game but one...

[Thinlómien]

So I'm here, I've read everything and I have to vote like in 10min... could have woken up earlier but no can do anymore. Also, I was not *so* sick yesterday, I don't need to be excused because of it. Shall post again very soon, now off to feed the tortoise and think...

[Thinlómien]

Okay, to be honest I have no idea. The only ones whose behaviour I find suspicious are Menel and Galadriel, both of whose behaviour I ALWAYS suspect, especially on Day1.

So let's go with gut-feeling:

++Aganzir

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Just because they wouldn't want to kill their little helper by accident, now would they?

True enough, but by the same token, I think they're going to care more than they normally would about whether or not they get lynched, too. That was my main point, since people who get a lot of attention early have a history of getting lynched.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

You've completely misinterpreted what I said. I laughed about being hypocritical because I said talking about the cobbler may be a sign of wolvery while I always do it myself, no matter my role. I didn't say Kath is suspicious for doing it but because of how she brought it up.

Fair enough, but then I'm a little confused by what you find suspicious. Is it just that Kath came out of the gate asking questions about the role, or what?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

On that note, Nog seems to have entirely forgotten about Shastawolf in the last game but one...

And we all saw how well that worked out.

[Nogrod]

Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55
G55 -> Pitch
Menel -> Zil
Shasta -> G55 2
Agan -> Pitch 2
Lommy -> Agan

Six votes to come: Glirdy, Nerwen, Legate, Sally, Kath & me.


G55's twists and turns sure merit a second look and I still think Pitch looks suspicious. But with G55's vote on Pitch it looks less plausible they both are wolves (not impossible, naturally, but less plausible).

Of others I have too little to suspect them for the time being - and I will not vote for Menel on D1 when he's back in the game after such a long time - unless he starts to scream wolf: which is probably not going to happen as he has voted and left...

Be back a little later.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Popping in shortly, there seems to be (or was) rather nice discussion.

Ad G55's reaction to Menel-debate, I find it awkward. In the end, she decided not to vote him, but one can still look at it as "feeding suspicion".

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

There's a difference between being sensible and being sensible and obvious. Saying "wolves are bad" is also a pretty logical and sensible thing. Where I'm getting at, is that I get what you're saying about Menel's posts being true and substancial, but I also get the other side of it, that they are what is to be understood without having to say it.

I think he was saying a sensible thing, I mean, if we dissect everything, then everything is already a known fact, one way or another. Nothing new under the sun. Yet saying "if we keep mislynching due to certain people leading the discussion, we should turn our eyes on them" is a reasonable thing to say, so why shouldn't he say it.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I find Menel's posts kinda awkward; not because he's saying the obvious truth, but because of how hard he defends it. When people commented on how he posts (ie being obvious), he repeated his point again with elaboration and etc., but was no less obvious. It's not like anyone disagrees with what he says, it's how he says it, and this does not change from post to post. I'll keep in mind that he is back from a very big break, and unless there's some more substancial point against him I wouldn't consider him more suspicious than most.

I think he just continued clarifying, and I think he *did* clarify it a bit better later (close to the end of the first page) - taking out the core. I think what he says is a legitimate proposal of strategy, nothing groundbreaking perhaps, but I don't see a problem with it.

Anyway, other thing, Nog is standing out a bit to me, his reaction to Pitch being somewhat too jumpy.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Forgive me my silly question, but where do I pick a suspection by you on Menel? Aren't you now just admitting you tried out something? And if you admit you tried out something how come you think no one else ever tries out something as well? tsk-tsk.

Or should I vote you because you "made a point about Menel"? The reason behind that vote would be as good as yours...

And then he delves into it in several subsequent posts... I mean, we know Nog is eloquent, but is this necessary?

Also, his remarks about Menel earlier were more like "theoretical", now he calls it "crusade" - even though obviously he does not mean it that strongly, as he himself says, still from the rest of the post it seems he condemns Menel quite strongly ("totally overdone").

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So my problem with your "crusade" (sorry about that word) is that it is totally overdone and a bit misguided. There have been loud wolves trying to do that but they have been lynched soon enough basically every time. I mean anytime someone manages to convince others to lynch A or B and they turn out innocents that person gets lynched even if he is innocent (I should know that)... and actually that's the reason why the wolves love loudmouths who are wrong.

So it's been a long time I have seen any wolf trying to openly lead the village as they know it's their downfall as sooner rather than later they will be lynched.

But as to the last, I think there aren't really "open leaders", but there still can be vocal yet manipulative Wolves - which is the case where Menel's theory would apply too, I'd say, and in such a case it would be relevant. Like, it's not that a Wolf comes and says "I am the Representative of the village, let's all lynch Snow", I think that has never happened in my memory, but there might be nudging here and there, and if such a person posts a lot and actively, then it can have effect.

Ugh! And this again was far longer than I wanted... off...

Shall be back later still to vote.

[satansaloser2005]

Ugh. All right, all right, I'm awake, and off to make some early morning deliveries. I'll have a quick chat with everyone as I go and see who I think is responsible for this insanity.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I had to check back as to what Menel actually said, and the following is the thing making me uneasy with him:

Originally Posted by Menel

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

Now, first of all, if there are three Days we only lynch innocents - and the wolves score effectively during the Night - we have basically lost as the wolves only need to ask for the cobbler to vote with them on D4. In case we had chances on D4 (like ranger made a succesful save one Night) then I think it is essential we look at everyone as thoroughly as we can because that lynch decides whether the game continues or whether we lose. So any "let's lynch the influential people" default-setting is basically dangerous rather than helpful.

Secondly. Menel's "plan" (let's call it a plan then and not a crusade...) is based on faulty premises, that a) wolves always wish (or need) to lead the lynching, that b) the wolves only vote for innocents, that c) innocents are good at avoiding lynching other innocents, that d) the seer doesn't do her/his job.

An example: let's say we have two villagers. Villager A has been a strong advocat of two lynches which both have turned out innocents. Villager B has voted both times for a person who has not been lynched as B has been against the tide going for those lynched innocents.

Now which one is more probably a wolf? I'd put my money on B.

If we dilute ("homeopathisize" ) Menel's suggestions into "we should be aware of people who might give a little nudge here and there" like Legate seems to be doing, then we're of course making more sense, but that's actually only saying "look around" which I think we all try to do. Although we still face a problem which is that it is basically impossible for an ordo to see "a purposeful knowledge-based nudge" from "trying to make even a weak point based on hunches".

[Nogrod]

Well then...

So G55 has done some interesting turns and the way Shasta analyzed it makes her look quite guilty indeed. The problem with lynching G55 is that she seems to be ending up as a D1 lynch a little too often as a "usual suspect".

Pitch could receive my vote as well as I think his vote was based on "forced reasons" - which always alarm me, especially when an intelligent and experienced player does them. I mean I would have thought an innocent Pitch would have thought of the best of the village more and not vote someone on such bad / non-existent reasons.

Others than the two I seem to have no good reasons to vote at the moment.

[satansaloser2005]

Hey, I have to leave for work, and will be voting from my phone right as I walk in. Could someone be so kind as to give me a vote count? I'll slip an extra cupcake in with your morning mail!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean I would have thought an innocent Pitch would have thought of the best of the village more and not vote someone on such bad / non-existent reasons.

What I mean is: when you know yourself your reasons are bad or non-existent, then you also know your probability of hitting a wolf is poor. And in that situation an innocent should always think twice whether s/he isn't helping lynching an innocent. For a wolf the quality or existence of your reasons doesn't matter as a wolf knows what s/he is doing.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Could someone be so kind as to give me a vote count? I'll slip an extra cupcake in with your morning mail!

Just a few posts above yours... post #71.

[Nogrod]

Twenty minutes. Where are you people?

Any new ideas, anyone?

[Nogrod]

Should I take it then that G55 or Pitch is a wolf and the mates are now hanging around not willing to take side hoping they will not be forced to make a move (to try and avoid a lynch of their mate if s/he's eventually lynched, or not willing to cast the first stone as there is still hope someone else will be lynched - but would hjoin the wagon if the case is lost?)?