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Old 02-27-2012, 08:08 AM   #1
Thinlómien
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Using Legate's analysis about Nogrod's comments about everybody (#366), and my analyses (#398, #437) about others' comments about him (and omitting myself of course):


Unlikely packmates

Pitch - when he criticises the Bom-lynch, his main target is very clearly Nogrod, not Shasta, Legate, Eönwë or me. In a few other occassions, he is rather aggressive towards him. I'm not sure of this new, more aggressive style of Pitch's, but I can't see him coming up with it as a wolf and applying it mostly wolf-on-wolf, it is potentially dangerous to the pack and puts him rather in the spotlight.

Shasta - his rather loud attack on Nogrod on Day1 doesn't reveal much, neither does the subsequent interaction, but: why the heck would a wolf-Shasta tainted himself by the association by suggesting lynching Zil the supposed acolyte instead of Nog the wolf? Surely that would have been too brazen?

These two are not exonerated by this, but I think it makes them look better enough that we should let them be for toDay which is the critical Day.


Possible packmates

Lottie - Nog attacked him on Day1, which would make her look more innocent than not. (Would a wolf-Nog bus fellow Lottie who is always suspected on Day1? That would be a bit too mean, taking into account that Lottie is someone who plays "properly" by Nog's standards.) Otherwise not much to conclude from: slight suspicion/ neutrality towards each other, Lottie believed Steve's revelation immediately like most of the people.


Likely packmates

Boro - on Day1, he talks uncharacteristically little about Nogrod, almost seems to avoid him. Nog suspects him, but doesn't seem to seriously consider voting him. On Day2 they argue, Boro defends Steve for attacking Nog but is himself very conflicted about Nog's role until Steve's reveal, when he turns almost malicious. To me, this seems like the exact way Borowolf would act with fellow Nog and wanting to keep all possibilities open about a packmate... Then again, Nogrod was pretty contradictory on the Day he died.

Pom - Nogrod is pretty nice to her in a way I can't really make sense of, maybe more like wolf to innocent. Then again, what she says about him is rather fishy: a few times she raises some point point about him, discusses it and concludes nothing. She suspects him but concludes he answered her suspicions pretty well. Makes her a more likely packmate of Nog's than many others.

Greenie - Nogrod suspects her a little, she scarcely mentions him, then in a list she says she has mixed feelings about him and votes Eönwë who attacked him. Hmm... looks almost too obvious wolf-on-wolf.

Sally - they mention each other so little it would be a perfect wolf-on-wolf tactic. Sally's suspicion of him is so "mainstream" we can hardly conclude anything from it.


Hmm... so if I had to bet, I would guess a Nog-Boro-Pom-Sally pack, but substituting any of them (except for Nog of course ) with Greenie or even Lottie is of course possible. (Pitch, Shasta and Lottie, if you are the remaining wolves, feel free to laugh at me. )

In any case I will still do a lot of rethinking and rereading toDay, because we cannot make any conclusions too fast toDay (so I reserve the right to change my opinion, thank you!)
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Old 02-27-2012, 08:11 AM   #2
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Now going but just saying: if someone is unwilling to discuss their suspicions and trusts toDay, we have all the reasons in the world to believe they are wolves who don't want to reveal their pack. No innocent has a need to hide their loyalties. That said, au revoir, I will be back in the European evening!

edit: xed with Zil
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Old 02-27-2012, 08:21 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Pitch - when he criticises the Bom-lynch, his main target is very clearly Nogrod, not Shasta, Legate, Eönwë or me. In a few other occassions, he is rather aggressive towards him. I'm not sure of this new, more aggressive style of Pitch's, but I can't see him coming up with it as a wolf and applying it mostly wolf-on-wolf, it is potentially dangerous to the pack and puts him rather in the spotlight.

Shasta - his rather loud attack on Nogrod on Day1 doesn't reveal much, neither does the subsequent interaction, but: why the heck would a wolf-Shasta tainted himself by the association by suggesting lynching Zil the supposed acolyte instead of Nog the wolf? Surely that would have been too brazen?

These two are not exonerated by this, but I think it makes them look better enough that we should let them be for toDay which is the critical Day.
With three wolves left, some bold wolf-on-wolf can't be discounted totally when considering Nog's mates. Especially ones that talked a good game about him being suspicious, but never followed up on it.

As for Shasta, one has to wonder why an innocent he would not have seen that so closely following Nog would have put him in a bad light.
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Old 02-27-2012, 09:18 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Shasta - his rather loud attack on Nogrod on Day1 doesn't reveal much, neither does the subsequent interaction, but: why the heck would a wolf-Shasta tainted himself by the association by suggesting lynching Zil the supposed acolyte instead of Nog the wolf? Surely that would have been too brazen?
I understand not wanting to focus on Shasta today, and I don't plan to, I just wanted to comment on this. Because Shasta is my top suspect, and I can't see how what happened yesterday effects what I should think about Shasta.

Also, Lommy, you're looking at Shasta through very narrow-minded glasses. You're looking at him based on interactions with Nogrod, and not at the whole picture. Shasta's actions through the entire game have been suspect, to say the least. Sure, he might be brazen and bold, but don't let the personality get in the way of what he's done so far, and what he would have the village do. He says that he feels I bussed Nog's lynch, well...

Shasta, bussed Bom's lynched. Wanted to bus Inzil (who he "suspected" as the acolyte, when there was little reason to feel the acolyte was an immediate threat) along with the known wolf Nog. And he continued to push for the acolyte's lynch yesterday, until getting frustrated by all the suspicion and leaving. Remove the personality from the equation, because it's not like you can't be brazen and a wolf . Look at the intentions and the results.

So, are you suggesting we just drop and let Shasta off the hook?
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Old 02-27-2012, 10:03 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
I understand not wanting to focus on Shasta today, and I don't plan to, I just wanted to comment on this. Because Shasta is my top suspect, and I can't see how what happened yesterday effects what I should think about Shasta.

Also, Lommy, you're looking at Shasta through very narrow-minded glasses. You're looking at him based on interactions with Nogrod, and not at the whole picture. Shasta's actions through the entire game have been suspect, to say the least. Sure, he might be brazen and bold, but don't let the personality get in the way of what he's done so far, and what he would have the village do. He says that he feels I bussed Nog's lynch, well...

Shasta, bussed Bom's lynched. Wanted to bus Inzil (who he "suspected" as the acolyte, when there was little reason to feel the acolyte was an immediate threat) along with the known wolf Nog. And he continued to push for the acolyte's lynch yesterday, until getting frustrated by all the suspicion and leaving. Remove the personality from the equation, because it's not like you can't be brazen and a wolf . Look at the intentions and the results.

So, are you suggesting we just drop and let Shasta off the hook?
(underlining mine)

I will say this one time today. After that, if anyone brings it up yet again, I am going to flatly ignore you.

I thought the Acolyte was a werebear after the Eruhen kill and acted as I did to lessen the number of kills that I foresaw happening at night.

There. Done.

That said, Boro, think before you speak. Learn the definition of "bussing" before scrambling to use that, of all things, as a point against me, because neither Bom nor Inzil were/are wolves.

I'll post actual content after I take a shower.
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Old 02-27-2012, 10:06 AM   #6
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I have to wonder about something, Boro.

You spent pretty much all of yesterDay going back and forth with Shasta, and he certainly seemed to be your main suspect.

Toward the end of the Day, you started saying you were confortable with lynching either Shasta or Legate. Why, when your focus had clearly been on Shasta, did you vote for Legate?

x/d with Shasta
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Old 02-27-2012, 10:42 AM   #7
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I have a horrible idea that just might work. Is anyone interested?


Or, as they say in Limerick....

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Could I get a show of your hands?



(I have a point to make against Lommie later, but I'll have to wait until I can get home and find the post, alas. I won't be home until almost midDay, but I didn't want to let this go.)
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Old 02-27-2012, 11:37 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
I have to wonder about something, Boro.

You spent pretty much all of yesterDay going back and forth with Shasta, and he certainly seemed to be your main suspect.

Toward the end of the Day, you started saying you were confortable with lynching either Shasta or Legate. Why, when your focus had clearly been on Shasta, did you vote for Legate?
I didn't say much about Legate until later, but that's just because I was agreeing with the points against him, and didn't want to re-hash what pretty much everyone else was saying. Other than me thinking, "are we sure there's no cobbler in this village? Because, it's looking like Legate." Legate was getting suspected enough, and I didn't see the point to just add on by re-stating the same points against him.

Shasta, at least at the beginning of the day, I didn't think was getting suspected enough. So, I started pushing, and it may look hypocritical since I've beat on the same points against him (unlike what I didn't want to do to Legate), but I didn't think he was getting enough suspicion until he got too frustrated and left.

But at the end of the day, I had enough of both of them, and couldn't care less which one was lynched, since it wouldn't effect my suspicions at the start of the day. Had Legate been a wolf, I still would have Shasta as a top suspect. Had Shasta been lynched, whether wolf or innocent, I would have had Legate my top suspect today. And my first post today was just to say "wait a sec, are we seriously just going to drop suspicion against Shasta now?"

It's the same plan I have today. That is, I've said all I can say on Shasta. We're going to go in this circle of "I don't believe you," and just re-hashing all the same argument. I'm pretty much tired of that (as I'm sure Shasta is too ), but I'll say now, just because I'm going to turn/start paying more attention to others doesn't mean I've suddenly dropped Shasta as my primary suspect. It just means I will agree with him about this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
I will say this one time today. After that, if anyone brings it up yet again, I am going to flatly ignore you.
But I don't like the look of this:

Quote:
That said, Boro, think before you speak. Learn the definition of "bussing" before scrambling to use that, of all things, as a point against me, because neither Bom nor Inzil were/are wolves.
It's these types of comments that just don't sit well with me, a squawk over a word/definition. I took "bussing" as "pushing/driving" a lynch of someone. Oh, so it means what a wolf driving the lynch of another wolf? My bad, I'll use "pushing" from now on...but just that tit-for-tat debate over definitions of words we're using is not a way to convince me you're innocent.
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