TIG XCIV– WHere the Stars Are Strange (Game thread)

[Pomegranate]

Agh. And I felt so smart suspecting the same person three days in a row, just to find out that despite everything I thought had to mean he was a wolf, he wasn't. Now it's my turn to need a full reevaluation of everything.

And I was going to bring about the same point as Lommy. We can't afford to lose an innocent today. At least not alone - a double lynch with a wolf and an innocent would still keep us alive. Hence today, if it was considerately done, I would suggest to think about a double lynch. Counting numbers:

Lommy already mentioned what happens if we lynch an innocent today. We're dead.
If we lynch a wolf today, and they kill an innocent at night, we end up with 4-2 (+1) tomorrow. That's pretty much the same situation as today.
If we lynch the acolyte today, it's 4-3 tomorrow, which means we have our chances, but they are not big.

Whereas:

If we lynch two innocents today, we're dead, surprisingly.
If we lynch an innocent and a wolf, it's 3-2 (+1) tomorrow, which is bad, but not as bad as lynching only an innocent.
If we lynch two wolves today, we might be able to breath again.
If we lynch the acolyte and an innocent, we're done for.
If we lynch the acolyte and a wolf, it's 4-2 and the unknown powers of this game are gone.

This obviously again depends on the acolyte, their alignment etc. But let's not discuss that all the time today.

I'll need to think and evaluate a lot before I have an opinion, an idea of this game again. I'll be doing that now (as well as writing an essay).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

Agh. And I felt so smart suspecting the same person three days in a row, just to find out that despite everything I thought had to mean he was a wolf, he wasn't. Now it's my turn to need a full reevaluation of everything.

And I was going to bring about the same point as Lommy. We can't afford to lose an innocent today. At least not alone - a double lynch with a wolf and an innocent would still keep us alive. Hence today, if it was considerately done, I would suggest to think about a double lynch. Counting numbers:

Lommy already mentioned what happens if we lynch an innocent today. We're dead.
If we lynch a wolf today, and they kill an innocent at night, we end up with 4-2 (+1) tomorrow. That's pretty much the same situation as today.
If we lynch the acolyte today, it's 4-3 tomorrow, which means we have our chances, but they are not big.

Whereas:

If we lynch two innocents today, we're dead, surprisingly.
If we lynch an innocent and a wolf, it's 3-2 (+1) tomorrow, which is bad, but not as bad as lynching only an innocent.
If we lynch two wolves today, we might be able to breath again.
If we lynch the acolyte and an innocent, we're done for.
If we lynch the acolyte and a wolf, it's 4-2 and the unknown powers of this game are gone.

This obviously again depends on the acolyte, their alignment etc. But let's not discuss that all the time today.

I'll need to think and evaluate a lot before I have an opinion, an idea of this game again. I'll be doing that now (as well as writing an essay).

Before I delve too far into analyses and such, I want to comment on this.

Now watch out, Shasta's speculating about the Acolyte again! Lynch him!

The narration of the Night, to me, certainly makes it seem like the Acolyte joined the side of the village last night. I think what happened is, either the Acolyte targeted Eonwe for something, Eonwe dreamt of the Acolyte, or both (this is the one I'm leaning toward - in the narration, the Envoy says he dreamt of the Acolyte, and the narration also has the Acolyte coming to the Envoy's door) and some combination of these events led to the Acolyte becoming innocent (given the whole teaching session, perhaps Eonwe managed to pass on his Seer powers?)

Now, granted, Nerwen was clear that the Acolyte doesn't count for either side in the tally. But what if they aren't the Acolyte anymore? If they did become innocent (big if, but I think, possible), the tally becomes 3-6... and suddenly a double-lynch becomes the only way the wolves can win toMorrow. This makes me raise my eyebrows at Pom a bit, because she basically came out of the gate toDay with some support for a double-lynch toDay.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Now watch out, Shasta's speculating about the Acolyte again!

And jumping to conclusions in the opposite direction this time.

Judging from the narration, and no unexplained kills happening for the last two Nights, it is of course clear now that the Acolyte is no threat, and the narration indeed makes it likely that Eönwë's seer power was transferred to xem - which is great, if xe decides to use it for our benefit.

So far so good. But automatically assuming that xe will not only side with the village but also count as an innocent from now on, contrary to everything stated in the rules, is just as bold an assumption as that the Acolyte is a classical Werebear and has to be Zil - and it could be desastrous to overestimate our numbers toDay.

You have, however, a point that Pom's willingness to contemplate double-lynches at this stage of the game is rather alarming. Not sure though whether it's noobishness or sinister purpose.

Originally Posted by Zil

With three wolves left, some bold wolf-on-wolf can't be discounted totally when considering Nog's mates. Especially ones that talked a good game about him being suspicious, but never followed up on it.

I'd like you to explain in which way I should have 'followed it up' and didn't. My suspicion of Nogrod originated in his part in starting the Bomwagon; I became doubtful of his guilt because my prime suspect from Day 1, Eönwë,attacked him in a manner which raised more than a few eyebrows, until the question which of them was guilty was resolved when Eönwë revealed himself as the seer and Nog as a wolf. How I reacted to that is on record, and I'm honestly puzzled what more you would have wanted me to do.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Pom

I actually though this was a good point at the moment, but now it feels like it has a bad vibe in it, for I am sure the wolves have discussed the acolyte and the possibility of xem having dreams and such.

We all discussed it on Day 1. Go back and read the thread.

And believe me or not, I was just about to post on the subject when I saw your post asking me about it.

Sally, I'm curious.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'd like you to explain in which way I should have 'followed it up' and didn't. My suspicion of Nogrod originated in his part in starting the Bomwagon; I became doubtful of his guilt because my prime suspect from Day 1, Eönwë,attacked him in a manner which raised more than a few eyebrows, until the question which of them was guilty was resolved when Eönwë revealed himself as the seer and Nog as a wolf. How I reacted to that is on record, and I'm honestly puzzled what more you would have wanted me to do.

I didn't point at you, or anyone in particular. But your reaction to my open statement is noted.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I didn't point at you, or anyone in particular. But your reaction to my open statement is noted.

The post I quoted from was your reply to a post of Lommy's where she talked about me and Shasta, so I don't think it was unreasonable to assume that you did as well.