WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[A Little Green]

Also - 20 minutes to DL, right? Where is everybody?

[Boromir88]

Ok...let' hope.

++Inziladun

[Boromir88]

I'm going to try to work out all the scenarios of the voting yesterday in my head, so if the running train of thought gets all jumbled up....sorry.

(I) = innocent. (W) = wolf. (R) = Ranger.

Scenario 1.

Kath (I) ---> Greenie (I)

Now if this was the case, then the 3 remaining wolves could have piled on to vote Greenie and win. In this scenario then, Inzil, Laeko, and Azura would be the pack. And maybe the reason Inzil didn't jump on to Kath's vote, because he didn't know if either Azura or Laeko would come in to vote. Then...

Azura (W) ---> Nerwen (R)

This could have been a newbie wolf mistake, instead of voting for the already voted innocent. But it's making scenario 1 look highly unlikely. Then Nerwen reveals to be the Ranger.

Greenie (I) ---> Inzil (W). Based on she know's she's innocent and she's not going to vote the Ranger so she went with her other possibility.

Laeko (W) ---> Inzil (W).

And this is really what makes Scenario 1 not make any sense. Because if Laeko would have added on to vote Greenie, Inziladun did too. And it would make my vote for Inziladun irrelevant. But Laeko voted for Inziladun, so a wolf on wolf vote doesn't make any sense. Scenario 1 can't make sense, and so Kath voting for Greenie was not an innocent-on-innocent.

[Boromir88]

Scenario 2.

Kath (I) ---> Greenie (W)

Ok. So a wolf already has a vote and so now the pack has to try to get an innocent on innocent.

The next vote is Azura's for Nerwen. Nerwen then reveals to be the Ranger. If Azura's innocent, it would make the pack. Inziladun, Greenie and Laeko. And whether Nerwen revealed or not, there would have been enough votes to lynch her. So this pack formation can't make sense because Greenie winds up voting for Inziladun.

If Azura's a wolf, however, then the Inziladun, Greenie, Azura pack makes more sense then the previous. Perhaps in night planning it was decided Nerwen would be the primary innocent target, and it backfired that she turned out to be the ranger?

Azura (W) ---> Nerwen (R)

Nerwen reveals to be the ranger. Wolf-Greenie already having a vote. Knows she can't vote for Nerwen, because Nerwen, Laeko, and I will make votes to save the ranger thus getting Wolf-Greenie lynched.

Although if Greenie were a wolf here. She's not going to vote for herself, she can't vote for Nerwen without being exposed as sealing her own lynch. So in order to save cover, and sort of take the motto of "let's fight another day," she makes a wolf-on-wolf vote for Inzil. The confusing part here though, is if Greenie, Azura and Inzil were the pack, why would Greenie vote Inzil knowing I have been suspicious of him, and Laeko too? Why not vote the other mate, Azura? Or give a vote to another innocent and hope?

If Greenie's a wolf here, it's a confusing vote choice. But the Inzil, Greenie, Azura pack, in this scenario is more plausible than Scenario 1 (Inzil, Laeko, Azura).

Scenario 3.

Kath (W) ---> Greenie (I)

My brain hurts and I need foods. I can't unravel how likely the a Inzil, Kath, and Azura/Laeko pack in this group looks compared to the scenario 2 pack (Inzil, Greenie, Azura) right now. I just wanted to mention it, before I have to leave, that I'll be heading to this scenario next.

And for the sake of it, Scenario 4 would be...

Kath (W) ---> Greenie (W).

which would make absolutely no sense given the circumstances of the day, so that one is easy enough to figure out.

[A Little Green]

KATH
(With emphasis on her relationship with Inzil, and a few other points that stood out to me. Not a complete analysis of all her posts.)

On Day 1, Kath makes a list. (She also votes Sally in the same post.)

Inzil - a loudmouth with some good discussion points! Like it.

In the early parts of Day 2, Kath further explains her Sally vote, which is fair enough considering how much suspicion that vote roused. She then moves on to speculate EW's death:

So I'm thinking really not a trailless kill unless Galadriel or Boro are wolves. Could be an attempt at a Legate set up - if so I'd think we have very bold or very new wolves given Legate voted for him making the connection obvious.

The following passage is potentially interesting in relation to my theory of Kath being a wolf with Azura (or Laeko, for that matter):

What I'm tempted to do is to vote for a potential modfire candidate. That way if Shasta does say modfire is happening then you guys can figure out what to do and my vote might come in useful.

On the other hand, clearly I don't actually suspect either of the potential modfire candidates as there is nothing to suspect them for!

Would a wolf with a fellow under threat of modfire say this? It wouldn't make much of a difference, I suppose, might even serve to make her look good. Then again, would a wolf with an inactive fellow be unaware of the modfire rules? (But then, if Shasta never said anything about them it might be that the wolves really were unaware of the modfire rules..) I'm just not sure. Kath abandons this plan soon enough, though.

From her list of people:

Inzil - really don't like it when people apologise for their votes posthumously (ach, that's not the right words but you know what I mean.) Seems to scream guilt. Could be a particular playing style but even if so I don't like it. Some suspicion of Bom for his vote placement. Agrees with Kitanna about not voting modfires.

Laeko - hey! Our newbie reappeared! This may change our entire modfire thoughts anyway! I like this so far - some good thoughts and reasoned suspicion of sally.

Aaaand vote post:

Possibilities:
Galadriel or Inzil for apologising for voting Pitch. I just find that very suspicious. It's like going 'Oh silly me! Don't blame me now, will you?'

sally for being hypocritical about the modfire situation. You do the same thing as someone else they can't be bad and you be good.

Boro for imagining a Pitch bandwagon and making a bigger deal out of it than there needs to be.

Quick re-read of Galadriel and Inzil's posts. On a re-read, Galadriel didn't actually apologise, she just stated frustration. Inzil on the other hand definitely apologised and tried to backtrack on his suspicion.

++INZIL

Wolf-on-wolf? In itself, it's hard to say this or that. This one becomes more interesting on moving to Day 3. Her comment on Inzil reads as follows:

Inzil - I can see again what Inzil is saying about sally not trying to save Pitch if she had dreamt of him. The timing is interesting though. After 4 votes for Pitch, a sudden blast of defence from sally wouldn't exactly have been a good way of trying to stay hidden! Some interesting points about Kitanna. She is often voting against her previous posts. Or well, not so much against as she is showing suspicion of the people she is voting for, but that those she votes for don't appear to be her top suspects prior to the vote.

She says nothing about whether she finds him suspicious or not, which I find rather curious considering that she voted him the Day before. Inzil has also completely vanished from her list of possible lynchees:

Based on that those I would consider voting would be:

Greenie - For such a flip floppy Nerwen vote. Either sally was an obvious Seer who the wolves were afraid would dream of NerwenWolf, or sally was not an obvious Seer. I just don't think you can have it both ways.

Legate - For that very aggressive tone early on. He has pulled it back but it has been commented on toDay that since doing so he has then tried to portray himself a little as a confused innocent. He may very well be that of course, it's just the slide into that after that very confident start that seems odd.

Boro - For changing from fairly calm, considered Boro to angry!frustrated!argumentative! Boro all in one go. Could be the result of the loss of two Gifteds and therefore his attempt to play more calmly went out the window. Or he's a wolf who has stopped being so bothered about keeping a calm cover after the loss of two Gifteds.

Because I feel my reasoning for Greenie is less so-so than for the others:

++GREENIE

Day 4, then.

Will say I won't vote Azura for the same reasoning as others have given. Seriously doubt s/he is a wolf with so little participation.

So, from the votes Greenie and Laeko seem most suspicious. Boro might be in there too but I'd like to know the answer to that question first.

Inzil - potentially interesting catch on Boro's wording about 'directing the wolves'. That said, Boro could hardly direct the wolves toward ... well ... wolves. Still it's odd wording. I don't like how Inzil doesn't actually make a clear point. It's all 'well I thought that but then' or 'could be this but that'. Yes, it's hard to be decisive, but constantly doing that makes it look like there's something to hide.

Thinks Inzil made a good catch (well, in all fairness, he did), but in the same breath says she doesn't like his cautious style of phrasing it. This looks, to me, most like wolf-on-wolf interaction between Kath and Inzil. In pointing out he made a good point, she strengthens an impression of Zil as a sharp and useful player, while in saying she doesn't like his style she avoids looking too much like his buddy.

Vote post reads as follows:

I cannot bring myself to vote for Laeko. It may be foolish but ... well, if she was a wolf I think she'd have made more mistakes basically. Right now we can't tell if she's newbie or newbie wolf. I think if it's not obvious then it's more likely that she's newbie.

I am leaning innocent with Nerwen. I think her posts come across as overly dramatic and factual but that the ideas and arguments are sound. I wouldn't say players are being manipulated in such derogatory terms, but it's entirely possible that her already somewhat suspicious playing style is being enhanced by the wolves.

I'm not going to vote Boro. If we would have had a double lynch yesterDay if he'd not broken the tie I think it makes his vote look more innocent. If Shasta was simply going to flip a coin and choose then I think it makes him look less innocent. As I'm not going to get an answer to that I'm going to hope Shasta replies later and that the information can be used.

My choice then is between Greenie and Inzil (Boro would be my third wolf if there was no danger of a double lynch yesterDay).

++GREENIE

I still feel her vote against Nerwen yesterDay was based on some very convoluted reasoning, and as I am leaning innocent on Nerwen I obviously disagree with Greenie's continued suspicion of her.

Would be convenient for a wolf to place a fellow as another lynch choice but vote for someone else. Makes her look good on the offchance the said fellow gets lynched at some point, but at the same time does not endanger him on a crucial Day. Her previous posts don't bring forth Inzil as a lynch candidate, she only brings up the idea in the same post where she already votes another player.

Conclusion about Kath? If she's a wolf, she's playing a careful game, there's nothing I could point at and call ”wolf!” She's been suspecting Inzil somewhat: voting him on Day 2, not really mentioning him Day 3, and bringing him up as a lynch candidate on Day 4. Not too much for wolf-on-wolf, in my mind.

Just based on yesterDay's votes, I'd be leaning on thinking Kath a wolf.

[A Little Green]

To sum up -

If Boro is a wolf, he's flipping mad.
If Nerwen is a wolf, the real ranger is mad.
If both Laeko and Azura are wolves, Shasta is mad.

Regardless of the fact that werewolf often is a little mad, any of those scenarios look a bit too much so. Therefore -

++Kath

Good night!

[Kath]

Very sorry. Stupidly busy day. No internet. Posting this at parents house before running back to my own to sleep. Have checked mod post but haven't read the thread. Going with what I did yesterDay as a result as feel no vote is less use than at least a previously reasoned vote so thoughts/suspicions etc currently still level with my last post yesterDay.

++GREENIE