WW LXXXIX: The Terror of Tol Fuin

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mith

No it was just the coffee was kicking in and having read through to make sure it made some kind of sense I realised that is what it boiled down to.I was trying ot make it clear having been queried on my mention that it is suspicious not to know the rules theory which seemed quite obvious to me.

I was thinking about the significance of the Ranger issue yesterday as I mentioned in one of the posts. I was up to the rather simple task of relating actual events to previously considered hypostheses on the game structure in my fragile state. What I wasn't up to but am going to try is to try and sort out the far more complex webs of interactions and analyses thereof .

Fair enough.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Still, you must admit it has often been the case that a wolf jumps on the bandwaggon.

Yes, I admit it. But the only one who "jumped on a bandwagon" yesterDay was Nogrod, Legate and I both thought we were posting the second vote and I don't call that bandwagoning. In my opinion that's not much against Nog yet.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Looks like Lommy hasn't responded to this, but:
Kitanna, I think you misunderstood Lommy's original post about Loslote (the thing where she mentions 'innocence stock'). She never at any stage had an innocent view of Loslote.

I did reply it in my long post up there - and indeed I did not say Lottie is innocent at any point...

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Yes, I admit it. But the only one who "jumped on a bandwagon" yesterDay was Nogrod, Legate and I both thought we were posting the second vote and I don't call that bandwagoning. In my opinion that's not much against Nog yet.

I remember Legate saying that he intends to vote Lottie. You were less suspicious about her, but you said at some point that you have a bad gut-feeling about her and Eomer.

I can't see Legate's case as a wolf-on-wolf. Yours could be turned either way. I'm still thinking about you.

You bring up Nog. I think I'll analyse him too, if time permits (as I have to run somewhere now but will be back in about an hour.)

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I remember Legate saying that he intends to vote Lottie. You were less suspicious about her, but you said at some point that you have a bad gut-feeling about her and Eomer.

I think he was unsure between Sally and Lottie?

Anyway, a list:

Bom Tombadillo - mm no idea, especially as he has disappeared. More evidence please! I don't think his jump on Sally was necessarily evil, more like careless/weird thinking.

Nogrod - I like him this far. He makes sense in a way that makes me confortable, but also says weird stuff enough that I don't worry about him being a smooth super manipulative wolf guru. Also, his vote nailed Lottie's coffin, which also might be a point in his favour.

Kitanna- I'm trying not to suspect her, because I always suspect her and because I don't want to be knee-jerky AND because everyone else suspects her and I'd rather not add my voice to that choir with this little evidence, but she is a little suspicious. The thing that worries me the most is how her analyses/posts seem like they aim at pointing out suspicious behaviour, not at catching wolves. It's a subtle difference but it might be there.

G55 - I'm quite impressed by her very un-newbieish playing style! Other than that, I don't really have much opinion, except that she doesn't strike me as overtly defensive like Legate said.

Sally - nothing new: she tends not to proclaim her innocence when she's evil, but otherwise I cannot judge her.

Eomer - very interesting. He has apparently taken a gallant knight tactic, rushing to defend other players wherever he sees a misunderstanding or a faulty accusation (to exaggerate a bit). I'm not sure what to make of it (if it's wolvish buddying up or genuine innocent helpfulness), but at least my gut-feeling of him is better toDay than yesterDay.

Nerwen - arg, slipping under my radar. No idea. Should pay more attention to her or she wll do the typical wolf-Nerwen win.

Greenie - hasn't been around enough to judge properly. Wasn't too suspicious yesterDay anyhow.

Nilp - I'm trying to avoid thinking him innocent just 'cos he thinks I'm innocent, but I seriously cannot see anything off with this guy for now. Of course, he's known to pull impressive innocent face stunts before, so maybe I shouldn't be sure.

Mithalwen - other than having great wolvish insights, not much to say about her. Doesn't strike me as too bad or too good, and I agree with whoever (Kit?) said her concentration on the rules makes her difficult to read.

Legate - on the other hand, he seems very genuine, on the other, his smooth manner reminds me of the evil genius Legate. I think he is actually rather under my radar. Leaning innocent anyhow.

...and where are the wolves in this list of unsures and innocents? Dunno. If I had to bet, I'd say Kit and Mith, or maybe Kit and Nerwen. No idea though (happily there's still plenty of time 'til DL but I'll be away for the next few hours).

[Mithalwen]

[QUOTE=Thinlómien;657734]Yes, I admit it. But the only one who "jumped on a bandwagon" yesterDay was Nogrod, Legate and I both thought we were posting the second vote and I don't call that bandwagoning. In my opinion that's not much against Nog yet.

QUOTE]

One thing I have looked at is Nilp's voting list - I think actually though it looked like a band waggon on this occasion appearances were deceptive. IT was all incredibly last minute. Effectively only 9 valid votes (excluding Nilp's playing silly beggars and Sally's plain late) and close - last hour started with only 3 votes cast and the decisive ones came in a four minute spell. So it looks like quite a bit of brinkmanship was going on. But why? The late voters (save Sally) weren't in danger of being lynched and needing to save themselves. Gah I feel there is osmething in this but I can't get at it and I am confusing myself (not helped by realising I muddled voter and votees in my notes. I also wonder if it is significant that Loslote didnt' vote. She might have saved herself if she had gone for another candidate. If she thought herself doomed I suppose she didn't want to leave any clues.

[Bom Tombadillo]

Wow. I have been SERIOUSLY lacking in timeliness this game (I pretty much forgot I was playing YesterDay) and don't really have time to do anything at the moment either - I will set an alarm to make sure I don't miss two days in a row though.

Back in a few hours,

Bom Tombadillo

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I think he was unsure between Sally and Lottie?

I don't remember what he planned to do with sally, but I am quite certain that he wanted to vote Lottie much before Shasta's analysis.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Also, his vote nailed Lottie's coffin, which also might be a point in his favour.

I'm not so sure. Lottie had the most votes before he voted. It was your and Legate's votes that did the trick.

And then this line that he says when voting:

Originally Posted by Nog in #168

I see this has been decided while I was writing my last post. Let's check it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Kitanna- I'm trying not to suspect her, because I always suspect her and because I don't want to be knee-jerky AND because everyone else suspects her and I'd rather not add my voice to that choir with this little evidence, but she is a little suspicious.

So is she suspicious or isn't she? Despite that she's a "little suspicious", you try not to suspect her.

???

Originally Posted by Lommy

G55 - I'm quite impressed by her very un-newbieish playing style!

Thank you, although I don't know if that's a good thing for me or a bad one.


... ... ... BOM!!!! You're back!!!! Please post something worthwhile when you return. We need it.

[A Little Green]

Gah. I thought I'd be here ages before now but RL interfered. I need to go to sleep soon I'm afraid but I'll do my best.

Originally Posted by Nog

On another quick note. As I just skimmed through what had happened the last I find it odd Greenie makes some sense saying that what Bom said looked more like "this is what I'm going to do unless there is a better option" and not "there is our wolf, let's lynch her together now". But then she went on and voted for him.

To me, considering (or appearing to consider) lynching someone because they'll die anyway is a wolfish thing to do. A lynch wasted, basically.

Originally Posted by Nog

Heh, I'm feeling nostalgic. I haven't made this rant in years

No? I thought you make it every game..

Originally Posted by Shasta

Greenie, you've called Nerwen "careful" and "neutral" twice now. Do you suspect her, or not?

Neither, I'm afraid.

Originally Posted by Galadriel, about Lommy

I'm still thinking about this. She voted for Lottie (who we now know is a wolf), but apologises for it. Of course, that could be an innocent thinking she's going on a Lottiewagon, but it could be something much more sinister. I'm more inclined towards the former, but you never know!

I'm not sure I follow this logic. Would a wolf preparing to vote for a fellow underline how sorry she was to do it?

I'll be making a list soon. My mind is pretty much a mess right now so the result might not be very intellectual.

[A Little Green]

Bom - Was my best bet yesterDay. His idea of a "mercy lynch" for Sally still makes me wary of him, but I'll leave him be for now. At least I want to hear more from him before I decide anything, and I'll most likely be gone by the time he reappears.

Eomer - Confuses me, as usual. I think Lommy made an interesting observation of how he has taken up the role of a gallant knight, but like Lommy, I have no clear idea of what it might mean. He's certainly crafty enough to use something like that as a deliberate strategy to win himself some allies.

Galadriel - I'm very torn about her. Half the time, she seems very sincere, and much of what might be called suspicious about her posts could be attributed to this being her first werewolf game ever (defensiveness, backtracking on her suspicions once someone questions them). On the other hand, (in addition to that the defensiveness and the occasional backtracking that could just as well be signs of being a new wolf) there is something very fishy in the way she phrases some things. The passage about Lommy quoted in my previous post is a case in point.

Kit - Argh, I'm torn about her too.

Legate - His normal wishy-washy self, and as such, could be anything.

Lommy - I have a hard time seeing her as a wolf. She seems sincere.

Mith - Back to the no idea -zone...

Nerwen - ...and remaining solidly there. What always bothers me about Nerwen is that I can read a dozen of her posts, absorbing the content but never much of its writer. I'd like a look at her if I have time.

Nilp - Having a hard time reading him. As always.

Nog - Leaning innocent. Or maybe I'm lulled into a false sense of security just because he sort-of suspected me on Day 1 (and he always does when he's innocent). The down side, of course, is that I always tend to suspect him when he's innocent. So maybe that I don't just means he's a wolf this time.

Sally - Her "I'm an ordo and I'm going to die" -post looked sincere to me. Some of the stuff she's said since made me want to reconsider, especially her way of instantly turning to suspect those who suspected her.

[A Little Green]

Also, if there's anyone around I wouldn't mind a chat. It's kind of dull to appear, comment on previous posts, vote, and go to bed. (Partly my own fault of course, only coming here this late.)

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Also, if there's anyone around I wouldn't mind a chat. It's kind of dull to appear, comment on previous posts, vote, and go to bed. (Partly my own fault of course, only coming here this late.)

Chat chat chat chat...

I have been working on a Nogalysis, and I'm halfway through.

Originally Posted by Mith

Not sure I buy the forgot I was playing line since he actually posted.

Well, he forgot about a RPG a long time ago... *glares at Bom*

Actually that line makes me think of him as more ordo than not. If he was a wolf or gifted, would he really forget his responsibilities?

Suspicions of Bom go down somewhat, though still not dropped.

Edit: xed with Sally

[A Little Green]

Had a quick look at Nerwen.

NERWEN, DAY 1

Only one post, no vote. But then, I'd have been surprised if there had been one. Basically she summarises what Nilp, Sally, and Bom have done, and asks Bom to clarify how much of his famous post was a joke. I think I've called this post of Nerwen's careful and neutral twice already. She takes no stance on any of the issues she comments on, and, this being her only post of the Day, we have pretty much nothing on what was going through her mind that Day.


NERWEN, DAY 2

In her first post toDay, she (surprisingly) laments Shasta's death and wonders why he was killed.

However, looking at yesterDay's chaos of accusations, counter-accusations and passionate defences, it's interesting that apparently nobody looked more like the Seer to the wolves. Shasta's case on Lottie was built on in-game evidence– whereas, a good many players seemed ready to defend/suspect others at the drop of a hat.

I think this is a valid point. The trouble is, I could also see a Nerwolf trying to distract the village into futilely debating the reasons behind the kill. This would point, possibly, to a packmate gathering too much attention. Nah. I don't know.

Actually, some of Sally's reaction to G55 could be a wolf trying to distance herself from a cub who's been too quick to defend her. It would fit that pattern quite well in fact. However, as you say, she did press it further than would be needed– so if they're in it together, it would mean Sallywolf was trying to bus her newbie comrade for little reason.

More importantly, though, we also have a known wolf to look at, and G55 happens to be the only person that wolf went after.

So, the key question, then is: how likely is it that Wolflote would make a wolf-on-wolf attack on Wolf55 at that point and in that way?

I really like Nerwen in this post. She's sharp and her reasoning is sound, and the points she makes are ones I'm not sure a wolf would be fond of making.

Her third toDay continues the speculation of a possible Lottie-Sally-Galadriel-trio.

It's perhaps more likely Wolflote would go strongly after a newbie comrade than Sallywolf, simply because Lottie tends to be very pessimistic about her own chances of survival– she might have reasoned that ione or other of them would probably die early anyway, and thus that a real wolf-on-wolf attack was the best bet. All the same, it's most unusual for a wolf to give herself no other option but voting a comrade.

Not much to say about Lommy, except to concur that her Legate-180 on Wolflote is peculiar (even coming from the Queen of Flip-floppers).

Her fourth starts with pondering the implications of Lottie forgetting or "forgetting" that Kit was playing. Again, sensible and sharp.

Are you talking about Lottie's claim that she "didn't know Kit was playing"? I don't know– it was, of course, suspicious, with hindsight– but it might have been meant as a more general "look at me, I'm a clueless innocent" ploy, rather than having anything to do with Kit herself. On the other hand (or paw) Lottie did make quite a point of it: at #106 she says, Did I miss something? I could well have - I totally forgot Kit was playing at all, I might have forgotten there was a cobbler, too...

She then moves on to comment on Mith's idea that the modified Ranger might affect the choices of Night kills:

Seconded. That would explain a few things– it's been suggested the wolves thought Shasta was the Seer because of his case on Lottie and/or comments about Sally, but I find that unlikely (unless they panicked). It's just so hard not to think of getting the Seer as the lupine priority.

The problem I have with this argument is that Shasta, though not particularly Seerish, still seemed to me an obvious choice for Night kill, given his role in the lynching of Lottie. Therefore if the wolves were afraid of the Ranger, I doubt they'd have gone after Shasta.

Conclusions? I think there's too little material to form any definite conclusion from, but for now, I'll remain wary of her. What bothers me is that even as all her posts could go either way, at the same time half of them scream "innocent" and the other half "suspicious".


EDIT: x-ed since my last - yay people!