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#1 | |
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Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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But I digress. I feel like I missed a lot yesterday after I voted. Sooo I'm going to have to reread the thread and go from there. For now I maintain my Sally is guilty stance. I noticed some buzz around Galadriel. I'll be looking at her and those who brought her up. Let's see where this takes me.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#2 | ||
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Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,519
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What luck, Shasta!
![]() However, on the bright side, one wolf down!!! I'm so not sorry now that my posts "hit her over the head like baby fish"! ![]() Quote:
Why Lommy? Quote:
An hour before DL she still didn't have any solid opinions on anyone, which is quite strange, because there has been enough going on yesterDay. She said that "none of the arguments really convince" her in #128. She was very quick to jump on Shasta's reasoning - right he was to suspect Lottie as we know toDay, but how would I have known yesterDay? - in #140. Moreover, she was around for some time - less than I have, but still - and didn't post anything except for some shaky impressions. Unnaturally quiet as well, considering the heaps of information. All that combined made me vote for her yesterDay. I'm still thinking about this. She voted for Lottie (who we now know is a wolf), but apologises for it. Of course, that could be an innocent thinking she's going on a Lottiewagon, but it could be something much more sinister. I'm more inclined towards the former, but you never know! ETA: I'll be back in some time after my brain digests everything.
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera Last edited by Galadriel55; 06-27-2011 at 06:49 PM. |
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#3 |
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Wisest of the Noldor
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No! My pearl!
![]() Now, why Shasta, anyway? On the face of it, this may seem a silly question: he did the most to get Wolflote lynched, and by that had made himself more-or-less unlynchable– along with possibly looking a bit Seer-ish. However, looking at yesterDay's chaos of accusations, counter-accusations and passionate defences, it's interesting that apparently nobody looked more like the Seer to the wolves. Shasta's case on Lottie was built on in-game evidence– whereas, a good many players seemed ready to defend/suspect others at the drop of a hat. EDIT:X'd since G55 at #186.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#4 | |||||||||||
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Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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I started with Galadriel simply because I know she garnered some attention, including some from Lottie.
1) First WW post ever 2) Comment to Nilp 3) Question to me about my joke post 4) Response to Sally 5) Directed at Nilp Quote:
6) Quote:
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7) Nothing really, just asking people not to put off to the last hour. Responsible, but not entirely helpful. 8) Nothing helpful 9) Asks about Legate and Eomer, nothing helpful 10) This is interesting. Greenie made comments on Galadriel's suspicions and then turned out to "I'm not accusing them. I just want to keep on eye on them." Quote:
11) Nothing helpful 12) Says Sally seems like a cobbler, but not a wolf. Obviously there is no cobbler and I regret ever making the statement because it is a moot point. 13) Responds to Eomer and his vote for her. At one point before this point Sally says her defense of her is "scary", I wouldn't go that far. I can't see any reasoning from her why she's you're innocent and it's certainly a strange stance. At the point she defended you against Bom's mercy killing and my suspicions you hadn't said much. Scary? Not really. Odd? Yes. Quote:
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)) so why worry she's going to get lynched?14) Quote:
15) Vote count 16) Quote:
17) Votes Lommy 18) Vote count 19) Had forgotten to bold post, edited vote post 20) Nothing helpful Day 2: 21) Quote:
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What I find stranger than her belief in Sally's innocence is her flip-flopping. She makes one case and then once it is commented on by another she goes back on her suspicions. That strikes me has more sinister than thinking Sally is innocent, she wasn't the only one. She just seemed to be the only one who really made a headline of it.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#5 |
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Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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(Time are in UT. Known innocents italicised, known baddies underlined, person/s in the lead bolded.)
1857 Greenie - Bom (Bom - 1) 2129 Kit - Sally (Bom - 1, Sally - 1) 2141 Eomer - G55 (Bom - 1, Sally - 1, G55 - 1) 2314 Shasta - Lottie (Bom - 1, Sally - 1, G55 - 1, Lottie - 1) 2339 Mith - Sally (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 1) 2352 Leg - Lottie (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 2) 2353 Lommy - Lottie (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 3) 2354 G55 - Lommy (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 3, Lommy - 1) 2356 Nog - Lottie (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 4, Lommy - 1) 2358 Nilp - Nilp (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 4, Lommy - 1, Nilp - 1) 0001 Sally - G55 (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 3, Lommy - 1, Nilp - 1) [did not count] The following people look good due to their votes (in order of perceived innocence):
Now, I've put my doubts regarding their innocence cos there's a caveat to this list; I have myself in three instances offered fellow baddies to the lynch mob to obtain that cloak of feigned innocence--as our dearly departed InzilaMod might remember. Also, there's that matter of Mac sending two of his packmates to the gallows, foiling a post-double-lynching mathematical victory I (as the seer) have struggled to prepare. However, they shall be quite low on my suspect list, unless the Seer should contradict me, or should they say something quite damning. My suspects next. After finishing episode four of Madoka Magica. (Priorities!)
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
Last edited by Nilpaurion Felagund; 06-27-2011 at 07:29 PM. Reason: grandmother issues |
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#6 |
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Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,519
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Lottie-lynch and Shasta
I recall a few people suspecting Lottie earlier in the thread, some even said they intend to vote her, but none really making one solid argumentive "summarizing" case against her until Shasta did. Now where did that stroke of inspiration come on him? He was debating a bit about everyone, but more about me, sally, Kit, and Bom. In 134 he considers voting [B]Sally/B], but wants more thought from her before a final decision. Then considers vote for Kit, but discards it because she'd be a throw-away.
Decides he'll analyze Lottie and does so in #138. Votes. More people follow. The way I understood Shasta's post#134 is that Lottie wasn't his top priority, and that he'd rather vote for Kit, or possibly Sally. Interesting. But lucky that he voted Lottie. ![]() Edit: xed with Kit and Nilp. Stupid computer freezing again.
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera Last edited by Galadriel55; 06-27-2011 at 07:59 PM. |
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#7 | |||||
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Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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Shasta, Lommy Legate, and Nog all voted Lottie. I want to look at vote times to begin with and I won't be taking too hard a look at Shasta, I think he might have been seen as the seer and that's why he died. He was the first to vote Lottie. As for the rest looking at vote times Lommy and Legate voted within a minute of each other, if this wasn't the case I'd say Lommy could be guilty. Nog voted later and I think it was clear Lottie was going to die at this point. I'm not sure what to think of the surviving three voters. Time to scrutinize
Lommy: 1) Nothing really helpful, states confusion, out of WW mode, will return with clearer thoughts 2) Thinks Bom looks suspicious. Nog makes sense, but seems uptight, this doesn't mean guilt, could be RL issues. Doesn't understand my logic, but wouldn't vote for me. More inclined toward Sally's innocence. Greenie seems innocent. Most of the others she states to having no opinion. 3) Quote:
4) No arguments convince her. Quote:
5) Quote:
6) Talks to Lottie about her reasons for giving/ not giving Galadriel a newbie pass. Says Lottie is being confusing. 7) Seems like she's having a change of heart about Lottie. 8) Votes Lottie 9) Doesn't know what to make of her crosspost with Legate. 10) Quote:
Lommy certainly looks bad right about now. She says Lottie is innocent. She piggybacks on Shasta. She changes her mind again. She votes Lottie. And her statement to Legate in her tenth post just looks wrong. Legate: 1) Doesn't necessarily accuse anyone. He does cast suspicion on Bom and me. But he doesn't get too in depth into accusing us either. Likewise he doesn't defend Sally, though he understands where she's coming from. He thinks Galadriel is reasonable and isn't too suspicious. 2) Lists his thoughts on everyone. He doesn't really pin down anyone, though it looks like Mith could be his front runner based on her "I agree with so-so and about blah-de-blah" attitude. He also comments on Mith's suspicions of people who are unclear on the rules. 3) Seems to come to an understanding of what Mith was saying about the rules. He doesn't exactly agree with her viewpoint, but he doesn't completely disagree that it is out of the range of possibilities. He thinks some of what I say about Sally could be applied elsewhere (rambling posts specifically), but says other arguments might be "more valid", he doesn't say what ones those are. Sees Nog as innocent so far. 4) Says Lottie could well be his vote. He also questions what Lommy said of myself and Sally. I think (I'm confused by his wording) that he doesn't think Lommy has evil intentions. Asks a question of Sally. 5) Sees Mith as more innocent. Questions Lottie's motives against Galadriel. He questions Sally and her innocent because of how she doesn't like Galadriel backing her. This is his only suspicion of Sally. 6) Didn't see too much usefulness here. 7) Starts to suspect Sally for her last few points. Analyzes the posts in question. 8) Shasta looks good, Sally doesn't. 9) Response to Sally. 10) Quote:
11) Response to Nog. 12) Trying to decide between Sally or Lottie. 13) Votes Lottie 14) Asks Lommy is she is questioning her vote So Legate doesn't look too bad to me. He speaks sense and stays consistent rather than jumping here and there, backing down from suspicions. Suspects thus far: Galadriel: A lot was said of her "backing" Sally, but that doesn't me. Rather she backs away from something when someone else contradicts or questions it. First she accuses Bom and I of tag teaming and trying to get a Sallywagon going. Then Greenie says something and all of a sudden she's "not accusing, just watching" us. She flip-flops and tries to be sly in her observations. Lommy: She was all about believing Lottie was innocent, essentially with no reasoning. Then Shasta casts a shadow and suddenly there's Lommy ready to get Lottie out of the picture. This could well be a wolf move. My packmate is in trouble, I should vote for them now when it's still anyone's Day. If she dies I look innocent. What's more unsettling is her comment about how her cross post with Legate "will affect the outcome". That's is possibly the most sinister thing I've read so far. Sally: Oh that's right. Most of my reasons have been outlined, but I find it unsettling that Sally has latched onto Galadriel's defense of her. It's possible (I haven't done a count) but she may well have brought up Galadriel's defense more than Galadriel actually said she thought she was innocent. That seems a bit like she's trying too hard to get us to look at Galadriel. Of course if Galadriel is a wolf I have to surrender my beliefs that Sally is a fanged menace. This goes the other way too. If Sally is evil than I'm hard pressed to believe Galadriel is. My house is essentially a giant oven right now. It's becoming hard to focus which is why my analysis of Legate kept getting shorter. I'm probably going to be absent for a few hours. When I return I want to finish up looking at Nog (the final Lottie vote), look at Mith (something has seemed strange with her posts, but I don't know what), and of course look at Lottie herself.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#8 |
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Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,519
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What happened to my post? Drat this stupid pile of metal that I'm typing at! I've written an essay and it swallowed it whole!!!
![]() ![]() ![]() (I replied to Kit's analysis about me and added some of my own points) Do I have to start typing again?... Ok, I'll try to retype it, but I'm going to sound very angry (you know the reason).
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#9 | ||||||||||
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Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,519
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I've spent an hour typing something imilar, except that it was much better and now I forgot half the points I wanted to make. All thanks to my ************** computer.
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As you said yourself, Quote:
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I have a question for you, Kit. Why did you find these posts suspicious only after many other people commented on them in the same way? Quote:
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I'm sorry if that sounded irritable. Blame it on the good for nothing computer I'm typing on. I'm so tired now all my notes and thoughts will have to wait until tomorrow (RL). *yawns*
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera Last edited by Galadriel55; 06-27-2011 at 09:36 PM. Reason: Legibility |
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#10 |
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The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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I'm sorry to do this, but my lovely guest has just left and I'm exhausted, so I'm turning in(to what, you may ask?
) for the night. I'll be back with thoughts in the morning.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#11 | ||
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Wisest of the Noldor
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More importantly, though, we also have a known wolf to look at, and G55 happens to be the only person that wolf went after. So, the key question, then is: how likely is it that Wolflote would make a wolf-on-wolf attack on Wolf55 at that point and in that way? To quote Shasta at #138: Quote:
It's perhaps more likely Wolflote would go strongly after a newbie comrade than Sallywolf, simply because Lottie tends to be very pessimistic about her own chances of survival– she might have reasoned that ione or other of them would probably die early anyway, and thus that a real wolf-on-wolf attack was the best bet. All the same, it's most unusual for a wolf to give herself no other option but voting a comrade. Not much to say about Lommy, except to concur that her Legate-180 on Wolflote is peculiar (even coming from the Queen of Flip-floppers).
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#12 | |
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Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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Kitanna, I think you misunderstood Lommy's original post about Loslote (the thing where she mentions 'innocence stock'). She never at any stage had an innocent view of Loslote.
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Los Ingobernables de Harlond |
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#13 |
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Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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Will probably be around later but there's a chance I'll have no internet access whatsoever, so I'll vote now.
++Galadriel55 Was suspicious of her yesterday, and she looks more suspicious with every post. Not certain she's guilty or anything but she is my top suspect. Interested in seeing Kitanna's comeback on Lommy, which I'm pretty sure will have to be toned down as it seems to rest on a misinterpretation. Sally still suspicious. Wondering about Nerwen, Mithalwen and Nilp. Hopefully (probably) back later.
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Los Ingobernables de Harlond |
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#14 | ||
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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I did reply it in my long post up there - and indeed I did not say Lottie is innocent at any point...
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#15 | |
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Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,519
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I can't see Legate's case as a wolf-on-wolf. Yours could be turned either way. I'm still thinking about you. You bring up Nog. I think I'll analyse him too, if time permits (as I have to run somewhere now but will be back in about an hour.)
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#16 |
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Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,461
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[QUOTE=Thinlómien;657734]Yes, I admit it. But the only one who "jumped on a bandwagon" yesterDay was Nogrod, Legate and I both thought we were posting the second vote and I don't call that bandwagoning. In my opinion that's not much against Nog yet.
QUOTE] One thing I have looked at is Nilp's voting list - I think actually though it looked like a band waggon on this occasion appearances were deceptive. IT was all incredibly last minute. Effectively only 9 valid votes (excluding Nilp's playing silly beggars and Sally's plain late) and close - last hour started with only 3 votes cast and the decisive ones came in a four minute spell. So it looks like quite a bit of brinkmanship was going on. But why? The late voters (save Sally) weren't in danger of being lynched and needing to save themselves. Gah I feel there is osmething in this but I can't get at it and I am confusing myself (not helped by realising I muddled voter and votees in my notes. I also wonder if it is significant that Loslote didnt' vote. She might have saved herself if she had gone for another candidate. If she thought herself doomed I suppose she didn't want to leave any clues.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#17 | |
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Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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PS: I'm glad to see Bom is back.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#18 |
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Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,461
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Not sure I buy the forgot I was playing line since he actually posted.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#19 |
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The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Just popping in to say that, yet again, I'll be very quiet. I've far too many calls to make at work this afternoon, so I doubt I'll be on the webs much. I just wanted to let you all know so you didn't wonder where I'd wandered off to this time.
![]() Shasta: WHY?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!???!?!?!?!?!?!?! !?!!?!?!!?!!?!? ![]() I'm wondering if Shasta was killed because he was on the right track (Kit and the like) or because the wolves had nothing better to do (as in a no-trace kill or a pot shot at the ranger). I'll try to do my own lookover of his posts, but I'm not sure I'll have time toDay. Speaking of the ranger....now that the wolves are down a pup, do you think they'll try to kill the ranger, or would they leave him/her alone? Killing the ranger could kill one of them as well, so I'm thinking we may see more random kills than attempts at slaying gifteds (or at least the ranger). Perhaps I'll offer more thoughts on this later, but....well, again with the time thing. Speaking of time, I'm out of it. I know I'll be back to vote at some point, but it may be a rather in and out deal. We'll have to see. Until my return! ![]() P.S. Sorry if this post is a bit frantic, but I'm typing my mad bloody fastest and I'm really tired. Blah. >.<
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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