WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Oh, just remembered to ask this: Nessa, what were your reasons for voting Legate yesterDay?


EDIT: x-ed with Legs

Something about the phrasing is starting to set off those little mental alarms I have. After the Night kills, Legate sounds astoundingly like a gloating wolf. Also, with my Rikae suspicion waning, the obvious candidates would have been the major bandwagons(Inzil) but I can't in good conscience vote in the middle of a bandwagon. I've found that mostly they rely on popular opinion rather than solid evidence, and it's too easy to get sucked in without really thinking about what you're doing. And since I didn't want to vote otherwise, I figured I may as well go with my suspicion of Legate, and get a new name out for consideration.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I can't in good conscience vote in the middle of a bandwagon. I've found that mostly they rely on popular opinion rather than solid evidence, and it's too easy to get sucked in without really thinking about what you're doing. And since I didn't want to vote otherwise, I figured I may as well go with my suspicion of Legate, and get a new name out for consideration.

You know, it's hard to lynch anyone without a bandwagon.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Manwe

#213 - Mentions that he'd like to see more from anyone with three or less posts, which is funny, because this is his first post of the game. Specifically mentions Cailin, BG, Greenie, and Elronhubbard. Of these, Cailin is "accountable, just" and the rest are "unaccountable".

#331 - Defends the quieter folk, here -

Originally Posted by Manwe

Quieter folk are the easiest to tarnish with the same brush and leave the greater possibility for a judgement error on behalf of their would be jurors. Although I would concede the more quiet the less likely you are to say something that'll give you away. But this reminds me of something Rikae mentioned that irked me a little

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it

Quiet can't be so black or white, for in those names that Legate mentioned there are those who have made the odd post, and those that have popped in to vote; two very different quiet "strategies" if you will...elronds_daughter being case in point with two very wild votes.

...which seems odd to me, considering his only previous post calls out the quiet ones.

He also asks Legate to clarify a question regarding Kath/Ozban and Greenie not wanting to vote either one.

#343 - Notes Rikae' clarifcation about the point he mentioned not liking earlier.

#428 - Asks if playstyles really don't change that much from game to game. Won't vote for Boro. Wishes he were the Seer [?]. Will vote for an 'extreme' because a wolf hides there. Votes Elronhubbard. Makes a point of saying that she's 'one he has mentioned in his posts' as if he's defending his vote before ever being asked - "It's okay that I voted her, I mentioned her as slightly suspicious already!"

#438 - Defends his vote.

Originally Posted by Manwe

I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice

#477 - Mentions that everyone has 'overlooked the quiet players, vote-wise'. I wonder why he mentions this - it's another flipflop on quiet players, in my opinion. Three posts ago he was defending the quiet players, and a post before that he was calling them out.

Originally Posted by Manwe

"Throwaway" because she hasn't "said" as much as other players and so there isn't much to go on? My vote is based on suspicion like anyone elses, not to mention the fact it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted and not to mention the fact that every majority vote has ended in an innocent being lynched so i'm glad i'm not listening to the majority

Regarding his Elronhubbard vote. Now, to me, this looks like a rather hasty defense, and what does 'it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted' mean? Are we keeping our hands clean, Manwe? The third point has no bearing on anything.
He mentions people that are alive and have been getting votes "wrong" -

Originally Posted by Manwe

Dead Sally: Wilwa, skip, Agan

Dead Loslote: Shasta, Cailín, Mac, e_d

Dead Inzil: LG, wilwa, Shasta, Pitch, Cailín, Aganzir, Boro

That's rather a lot of players to throw suspicion on.

Oh, and he immediately backtracks when Elronhubbard herself comments on his vote -

Originally Posted by Manwe

That's all I meant, my intention was to just highlight your style in this game so far, that you don't post often other than to vote (like me to be fair)..(and you list the reasons why, be they true or not)

Conclusion - Manwe's opinion on quiet players changes three times in six posts. He asks Legate for clarification on a point that he never follows up on (to act like he's being active, maybe? Asking questions does look like activity), his several defenses of his Elronhubbard vote look jumpy to me AND there's backtracking going on (and the reason for that vote to begin with was shoddy), he tries to throw suspicion on about eight people at once with his 'getting votes wrong' post. I think Manwe is the first person to enter my 'Red' category.

[Macalaure]

Except for a little skirmishing with Pitch at the beginning, people were thinking I'm innocent all the time. Glad that seems to be changing now.

*takes off velvet gloves*

Originally Posted by Skip

Your analysis treats her as an innocent.

As I've shown, the conclusions are almost identical even if Nessa is not included.

If we assume that Boro is the cobbler, a Mac-wolf's vote for Boro-cobbler (whom he probably knows the identity of) also makes sense to me, given that his long analysis is built on the Inzil/Nessa trail as an obvious set-up, and that he is casting suspicion on just about everyone who's partaken in it, and by implication making it a moral high-ground to stay away from it. He wouldn't have thought Boro would go end up lynched anyway I think, and if an accident were to happen, that wouldn't have been that bad for team-evil anyway. Hardly a problem at all in fact, given Agan's maths.

Your argument fails in multiple ways:
-If I just wanted to stay away from the Nessa/Inzil waggons, I could have voted anybody. Why needlessly endanger the cobbler?
-You seem to assume that I already had the whole Nessa/Inzil analysis ready before Inzil was actually dead, and before people started acting extremely suspicious after I left.
-I am not suspecting everybody who took a part in it: I suspect Pitch, Agan, and Legate significantly less than you, Cailín, and Shasta.


I like how you probe into the possibility of lynching the cobbler and immediately jump away from it after Rikae called you on it. Nice try Skipwolf

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Cailin

#10 - IC banter.

#18 - likes Boro. Approves of Pitch. Wary of Eomer. Votes Agan, 'because I owe her one'. Typical random reason for a Day 1 vote, looks like.

#178 - Thought Sally looked fairly innocent. This comment pings my radar a tiny bit, but it's a Lottie-reason. Thinks Lottie looks shady, looking at the Sallywagon.
Feels good about Legate, Lommy, Rikae, Inzil, Boro, Eomer, Kitanna, and Agan. Says the wolves are Mac, Greenie, Lottie, and Nessa.

#186 - The start of an exchange with Rikae regarding wolfish behavior and easy lynches. Cailin thinks wolves are less likely to actively push bad lynches, feeling instead that it's more sensible to 'go with the flow and come up with a mildly credible explanation afterward'.
Also mentions Nessa looks fairly bad after Ozban's death.

#205 - Continuance. Rikae wonders why a wolf wouldn't be actively seeking reasons to suspect someone, but would make unfounded accusations that were easily attackable. Cailin responds with -

Originally Posted by Cailin

I just think that completely unfounded accusations on Day 1 are actually easier and more convincingly defended.

I'm torn here. Part of me is thinking that this exchange looks innocent for both Rikae and Cailin, but then part of me is thinking Cailin looks like someone who has just realized she's pulling more attention that she would like, and so ends her conversation.
Feels better about Mac for much the same reasons I did, and would rather not lynch Kitanna-hunter.

#220 - Continuance. Rikae persists and Cailin does more peacemaking "can we drop the subject" here.

#221 - Analyzes Wilwa and Nessa. As a conclusion, thinks Wilwa is innocent ("I doubt she is evil") and Nessa she says "has done little to make herself look innocent". I think I've said this before, but I don't really like the way this is worded, as if Nessa being a wolf is a foregone conclusion.

#260 - Uncomfortable with Lottie's vote and doesn't like Wilwa's abstention - a bit of a flip flop from her previous post, where she says she doubts Wilwa is evil.

#273 - Doesn't like what she sees of Lottie, gives several reasons. Would not be averse to lynching Nessa, either. Suspecting Cailin for being against Lottie is hypocritical of me, but I will say I'm not sure I like how she leaves herself open to vote Nessa if the bandwagon swings that way.

#287 - A list of players: Guilty and Innocent. Of interest are the fact that Wilwa and Boro are "guilty", as opposed to how Cailin felt about them earlier, and Valier appears on the "guilty" side for a reason I'm not sure I understand.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Valier - I remember Valier quite well from the distant past. She does not give me a fuzzy feeling as of yet.

I generally take 'fuzzy' to mean 'wolfish', which would make it odd that Valier is there for not being 'fuzzy'. Am I just misreading?

#296 - Votes Lottie.

#346 - Says she had Lommy down as innocent from the start. Will be looking at Skip because she thinks Valier was a suspected Seer.

#375 - Quick and dirty analysis of Valier - says if the wolves thought she was the Seer, Nessa and Rikae look good and Skip looks bad.

#378 - Mentions she went over Lommy as well.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Lommy was almost certainly not a we-are-looking-for-the-Seer kill but a let's-get-her-now-before-she-starts-making-sense kill or something involving Inzil (bluff, double bluff, you all know the drill).

I don't necessarily disagree, but I'm not sure I'd use the words 'almost certainly' in a werewolf game.

#381 - Thanks Inzil for his Elronhubbard analysis (I think?). Agrees, but pushes her suspicion of Skip here, saying that his vote for Elronhubbard looked like an attempt at a bandwagon.

#398 - Another list. Wilwa is under 'others' as Cailin doesn't like any of her posts (which comes as a surprise, considering her early analysis of Wilwa, but Cailin has been consistent regarding Wilwa for a few days now, so I'm unsure). The rest of the list seems to be okay, but I confess I'm still waiting for the skip analysis we were promised.

#402 - Puzzled by skip's list, and puzzled by Nessa's attitude. This post kind of feels like 'posting-for-the-sake-of-posting'.

#421 - Agrees that Inzil and Nessa will continue to be a distraction. Doesn't see any reason to vote Boro. Still suspicious of skip - what I'm not liking is that Cailin continues to be 'suspicious' of skip but makes no real effort to push said suspicion.

#427 - Votes Inzil. Honestly, the reason about Inzil's vote for Boro at the last second is one I agree with - it did look shady.

#431 -

Originally Posted by Cailin

Coin tosses are bad but a throwaway vote for a silent player is not much better really.

Haha. I agree.


Conclusions - Cailin is definitely someone to watch. She's got both good and bad points for her - I don't necessarily see full-blown lupinity here, but she's definitely more suspicious than I thought she was. (Wow, don't I sound wishy washy? )

[Pitchwife]

Ouch. That lynch yesterDay was ein Griff ins Klo, as we say in German (roughly 'grabbed from the loo', in the sense that you get a handful of - well, you know what). Poor Zil, that was a nasty set-up by the wolves.

So far, I'm afraid we've made the wolves' job pretty easy, and our numbers are dwindling rapidly. Our big assets are that our two remaining gifteds are still alive, so there's still hope.

Speaking of Zil, sadly there's not as much to learn from knowing his role as I hoped there would, now I think it over with a clearer mind. OK, we know that the vote that saved Nessa on Day 2 wasn't made by a packmate, but we still don't know whether he was swayed by an innocent or evil Nessa.
But at the moment, I tend to leave Nessa to the Seer. Like Eomer said yesterDay, chances are high they've already dreamed her (I certainly would have if it was me), and if they haven't, I think they should.
(By the way, I think it's quite possible the wolves interpreted that comment as a seer hint from Eomer himself, hence his death.)

As to Rikae's mysterious #467 and the speculations about it - I think I see what she's driving at (or let's say I have a hypothesis), and if I'm right, I'd much rather nobody had mentioned it, least of all said "It certainly seems like something an innocent, possibly gifted, would try rather than a wolf" (skip! Really?).

EDIT: x-ed from #495 down

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, re: Agan - if you're 'green' it means I don't plan to vote you - and I wouldn't plan to vote the cobbler in any case.

[Mänwe]

Compelled to respond now

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

#213 - Mentions that he'd like to see more from anyone with three or less posts, which is funny, because this is his first post of the game.

Well I know what role I play in our incarceration. I needed like others have needed from me, "more to go on", therefore I asked them to have a say. I asked it to draw attention to the fact that a suspicious character might lie in these quiet players- knowing I myself could be counted among them.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Won't vote for Boro.

Because that day I didn't consider him a wolf.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Makes a point of saying that she's 'one he has mentioned in his posts' as if he's defending his vote before ever being asked

Because I anticipated being asked and being judged on my vote as has happened to others so far.

~~

In regards to the 'flipflop' comments- my defense of the quiet players was only because a couple of players had in my mind at the time labelled them as useless, and being one of them I felt it just to comment. But on Legate's and Rikae's clarification, I accepted that I had misunderstood their point, as you pointed out, I accepted the clarifications. This was also the case regarding Legate's comments regarding "throwaway" votes, I was just attacking his view point not defending e_d.

So I don't think it much of a flipflop me maintaining that these folk should be the focus of some suspicion.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

...and what does 'it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted' mean?

At the point I voted, in my mind it seemed clear that Inzil would be the one to go, regardless I would not have voted for him as I said to Legate, I held no suspicion over him. This leads back to Legate's comment about my e_d vote being "throwaway", I felt as if he meant he would have preferred me voting for Inzil or Nessa, the two who had garnered so much attention that day.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Oh, and he immediately backtracks when Elronhubbard herself comments on his vote.

I admit, it was a bit of a backtrack but only in so far as to point out to her I wasn't presuming she didn't read a single post in the game and just voted.

~~

So, I would say i'm not flipflopping. Just defending a certain strategy while drawing attention to it (because it can be successful).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

Compelled to respond now



Well I know what role I play in our incarceration. I needed like others have needed from me, "more to go on", therefore I asked them to have a say. I asked it to draw attention to the fact that a suspicious character might lie in these quiet players- knowing I myself could be counted among them.

So you were drawing attention to the fact that you were drawing attention to the fact that you could be counted as 'suspicious', which is supposed to in fact make you look more innocent? A wolfish tactic I've used myself.

Because I anticipated being asked and being judged on my vote as has happened to others so far.

Regardless of that, it looks to me as if you were looking for a reason to make your vote okay.

~~

Originally Posted by Manwe

In regards to the 'flipflop' comments- my defense of the quiet players was only because a couple of players had in my mind at the time labelled them as useless, and being one of them I felt it just to comment. But on Legate's and Rikae's clarification, I accepted that I had misunderstood their point, as you pointed out, I accepted the clarifications. This was also the case regarding Legate's comments regarding "throwaway" votes, I was just attacking his view point not defending e_d.

So I don't think it much of a flipflop me maintaining that these folk should be the focus of some suspicion.

You don't think going from "quiet players should be looked at and say more", to "quiet players are no more suspicious than loud players", and back again, is a flipflop?

Originally Posted by Manwe

At the point I voted, in my mind it seemed clear that Inzil would be the one to go, regardless I would not have voted for him as I said to Legate, I held no suspicion over him. This leads back to Legate's comment about my e_d vote being "throwaway", I felt as if he meant he would have preferred me voting for Inzil or Nessa, the two who had garnered so much attention that day.

If you held no suspicion over Inzil, the innocent thing to do would have been to try and save him, not throw away your vote where it would do no good to anyone. I fully agree with Legate here - your vote was throwaway.

Originally Posted by Manwe

I admit, it was a bit of a backtrack but only in so far as to point out to her I wasn't presuming she didn't read a single post in the game and just voted.

I'm afraid it looks more as if you're saying "I voted for you but I don't actually find you suspicious".

So, I would say i'm not flipflopping. Just defending a certain strategy while drawing attention to it (because it can be successful).

"Drawing attention" means you want it looked at while you're defending it at the same time. That's, like, the definition of 'flipflopping'.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Brilliant, we should totally do this.

I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though.

What the heck is happening here? Is this supposed to be sounding like a joke (like you actually do not intend to vote for those people), or am I just taking the tone wrong? Are you implying that we should not at all talk about who we want to vote for? Because that kind of makes the Day a bit empty, what else are we to talk about other than who we want to vote for? I don't get this exchange, I must be missing something.

[skip spence]

Okay then, will have a look at Greenie, then Mac, and if there's time, Agan.

I suggest that someone also considers a fresh look at Shasta, Legate, Boro and Wilwa. I'm sure I've forgotten about someone too...

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Except for a little skirmishing with Pitch at the beginning, people were thinking I'm innocent all the time. Glad that seems to be changing now.

*takes off velvet gloves*

*picks up one of Mac's velvet gloves and slaps him across the cheek with it*

Originally Posted by Mac

As I've shown, the conclusions are almost identical even if Nessa is not included.

That's hardly the point. You accuse the people who went with the Inzil/Nessa trail, regardless of who they accuse (gives them negative points) and credit those who stayed away from it, that's the point.

Your argument fails in multiple ways:
-If I just wanted to stay away from the Nessa/Inzil waggons, I could have voted anybody. Why needlessly endanger the cobbler?

Because if you vote for the cobbler and not an ordo, there is no vindictive innocent to deal with the next Day?

Because, like Agan has shown, the loss of the cobbler is not that heavy a blow for the wolves, and that you'd look better afterwards lynching a cobbler rather than an innocent?

Because either Nessa or Inzil looked very likely to get lynched regardless of your vote for Boro?

Because you didn't know or suspect Boro was the cobbler (I certainly don't)

Each one of these explanations seem plausible to me.

-You seem to assume that I already had the whole Nessa/Inzil analysis ready before Inzil was actually dead, and before people started acting extremely suspicious after I left.

Once again: The usual suspects Nessa and Inzil did look very likely to get lynched from early on (as far I can remember anyway),

-I am not suspecting everybody who took a part in it: I suspect Pitch, Agan, and Legate significantly less than you, Cailín, and Shasta.

But you did consistently award negative points (ie a suspicion) for anyone who favoured either Nessa or Inzil.

I like how you probe into the possibility of lynching the cobbler and immediately jump away from it after Rikae called you on it. Nice try Skipwolf

That not how it was, and you know it, Mac-wolf!

Now dinner, and then I'll read though Shasta's analysis of Mänwe. I'll try to have a look at another person as well, maybe Greenie or Agan.

Edit: x'ed with shasta and rikae (fine, have it that way!)