Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, that's interesting. Better than it could have been, though. Maybe the wolves were convinced by Shasta's Nog-seer sort of theory (it rested, after all, on Nog being last Night's kill choice, and clearly he wasn't), which might indicate that Eomer is more likely to be TBW. Only if Agan is evil, though, really.

Eomer I might agree on, but why does Eomer being the BW depend on Agan's alignment?
I don't think Shasta's a likely wolf at this point, but I'm wondering if he might not be Ferny.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Although, you'd think TB might have tried to hunt Eomer last Night...in which case, Eomer might be a wolf.

It's a pretty big "if", trying to guess who Tom was looking for, really. Eomer looks shady enough on his own.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Eomer I might agree on, but why does Eomer being the BW depend on Agan's alignment?

Because the wolves might have thought he looked like the Seer. They killed someone last Night who looked like the Seer - Nog. Two people were talked about as possible TBW candidates yesterDay - Nog and Eomer - because the wolves might have thought they looked like Seers. Since they went after Nog, who was, of the two, less likely to look like a Seer, that suggests that they knew Eomer wasn't the Seer. They could only know that if he was a) TBW or b) a wolf. If Eomer is TBW, it suggests that Agan is evil, because in order to look like the Seer, his vote for Agan would have had to be right. If Eomer is a wolf, it says little about Agan's role, but suggests that she is not particularly likely to be Eomer's packmate.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Eomer I might agree on, but why does Eomer being the BW depend on Agan's alignment?
I don't think Shasta's a likely wolf at this point, but I'm wondering if he might not be Ferny.

Only if he's really cleaned up his act since last time.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

It's a pretty big "if", trying to guess who Tom was looking for, really. Eomer looks shady enough on his own.

I have to agree: if TB followed the arguments put forward yesterDay, it's probably about 50-50 whether he picked Nog or Eomer.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Because the wolves might have thought he looked like the Seer. They killed someone last Night who looked like the Seer - Nog. Two people were talked about as possible TBW candidates yesterDay - Nog and Eomer - because the wolves might have thought they looked like Seers. Since they went after Nog, who was, of the two, less likely to look like a Seer, that suggests that they knew Eomer wasn't the Seer. They could only know that if he was a) TBW or b) a wolf. If Eomer is TBW, it suggests that Agan is evil, because in order to look like the Seer, his vote for Agan would have had to be right. If Eomer is a wolf, it says little about Agan's role, but suggests that she is not particularly likely to be Eomer's packmate.

In fact, we're now in the same position we were only hypothetically in yesterDay, as regards the wolves picking Nogrod. So I guess all the "what-if" arguments now actually apply. Funny.

[Nerwen]

The Volo-waggon.

Nine minutes before DL, our ill-fated ranger had no votes whatever. (Then-vote count: Eomer, Agan, EW, wilwa and Form at one each.)

At 9:52 GMT, Wilwa votes Volo:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I definitely want to go for a quieter person, and he seems like one of those loud quiet people, ya know the ones that say a lot without actually saying much, and what he does say doesn't make a lot of sense.

9:54. Aganzir follows suit (Volo 2):

Originally Posted by Agan

As opposed to Nog & sally, there seems to be a chance to lynch him. I feel semi-bad doing this because he hasn't played in a long time, but if he's innocent, he can only blame himself for being so weird.

9:55. Pitchwife votes Eomer (Eomer 2):

Originally Posted by Pitch

He hasn't come back and delivered the more reasoned vote he promised us, and it looks like he's not going to, and he could well be a quiet wolf or Wight, and I'd rather be able to stop wondering what the heck he's up to.

(Next three posts have the same time stamp, but I give them in order.)
9:57. Inziladun votes Volo (Volo 3). No explanation given with this vote; earlier he had mentioned Volo "pinged his radar".

9:57. Volo reveals as the Ranger.

9:57. Shasta votes Volo (Volo 4).

Originally Posted by Shasta

Got to be...

++Volo, then.

Note: Had previously said little about Volo, other than that he "could vote for him". Vote-post is not marked as having crossed with Volo's reveal. An oversight? [EDIT: Yes, he did cross. Sorry.]

9:58. Nogrod (known innocent) votes Volo (Volo 5):

Originally Posted by Nog

Eomer makes more sense than Volo...

++ Volo

Uh... so why did he vote Volo, then? Vote crossed with reveal and previous two votes.

In the remaining two minutes, all five Volo-voters expressed dismay, Shasta (9:58) and Agan (10:10) suggesting the remaining players (Volo, Greenie, Eomer and Sally) all vote for Eomer. However, only Volo himself did so.

So quite a peculiar last-minute bandwaggon there. I don't say it was completely out of the blue– Volo had been talked about quite a bit on Days One and Two– but other than the initial vote (Wilwa's) all the votes on Volo look quite nastily opportunistic.

I say "all" advisedly, however– the fact that one vote came from a known innocent is a useful reality check. Nonetheless, I think it likely that one or more villains had been waiting around until the last minute– it would make sense in a situation when no player had had more than one vote, so they couldn't even guess how the lynch would go. The wolves would of course have the most reason for doing this, especially if one of their own was among the earlier candidates.

EDIT:X'd with EW and Lottie.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's been a long night and is now four in the morning. All I know at the moment is that I'm not even going to bother responding to EW because if he's going to vote this early in the day for 'reasons' (such as they were) like that, he's no better than Morsul and thus not worth my time.

Nerwen, darling, you say my vote post wasn't marked as crossing with Volo's reveal, but it is. Please look again.

Shasta, signing off (with the beginnings of a royal hangover, and no that's not a reference to Nogrod, ask Mira).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hi all. Apologies for lack of participation yesterday but a family commitment lasted longer than I had anticipated. Came back home too late.

Not at all surprised to see I nearly got lynched; what is it about me that rubs people up the wrong way?

Back soon with some insights.

[Pitchwife]

Well, I suppose it would have been expecting too much to hope that the wolves would kill Ferny, so I have to agree that Barley's death was the second best thing that could have happened.
Losing our Ranger sucks, however... And in this light, I'll have to reconsider about some of the people I've thought innocent up to now (especially wilwa and Agan).

Speaking of Volo and wilwa:

Originally Posted by wilwa

Snap.

Well, I'm inclined to believe him, since his last statement is in fact correct.

We now know he was what he said, but as the Ranger, he couldn't have known what you were, could he? Therefore I neither understand his statement nor your reply.

TEW's vote was very hasty indeed... and what was that bit about 'signing off' about? Does that mean he's not coming back toDay? In this case, such an early vote would be understandable.
Anyway, I don't think his reason quite as bad as Lottie and Shasta make it look - I mean, if Shastawolf thought Nog could be the real Seer instead of BW masquerading as one, trying to frame him would make sense, as would the Night-kill after that didn't work. Problem with that is, I don't know that I in his place would be so daring as to go after a supposed Seer in broad Daylight and risk provoking a reveal, instead of killing them quietly; and it would also point quite strongly to both Shasta himself and Agan... but maybe they considered getting rid of the Seer worth the risk.

(x-ed with two Eomers)

(EDIT: make that three.)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Nerwen, darling, you say my vote post wasn't marked as crossing with Volo's reveal, but it is. Please look again.

My apologies, my treasure. I was reading it with the "reply" window already opened, and I think in that mode those "reason for editing" comments don't appear.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

We now know he was what he said, but as the Ranger, he couldn't have known what you were, could he? Therefore I neither understand his statement nor your reply.

Because he was protecting me that Night, if he was protecting me there's no way I can be the BW because the wolves got close enough to their kill to see who it was, if the Ranger was involved the narration would have said so.


I was really hoping to have more to comment on this morning. I need to go to Church now, and I will be there for quite a while. I should be back on for the last few hours and hopefully have a lot to say.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

[U]So quite a peculiar last-minute bandwaggon there. I don't say it was completely out of the blue– Volo had been talked about quite a bit on Days One and Two– but other than the initial vote (Wilwa's) all the votes on Volo look quite nastily opportunistic.

I say "all" advisedly, however– the fact that one vote came from a known innocent is a useful reality check. Nonetheless, I think it likely that one or more villains had been waiting around until the last minute– it would make sense in a situation when no player had had more than one vote, so they couldn't even guess how the lynch would go. The wolves would of course have the most reason for doing this, especially if one of their own was among the earlier candidates.

Just to say that I agree with Nerwen's interpretation here; chances are indeed good that one or even two wolves stuck around this late.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

#134 - rants against Shasta about how he's obviously not the seer.

#168 - "Stop speculating about who the seer is. Thank you." It's possible the wolves thought he was bluffing on these two points, rather than any convictions he had about guilt and innocence.

#169 - continues arguing with Aganzir

#174 - lessens his suspicion of Pitchwife

#228 - suspects Volo (ok) but also mentions he'd like to vote Sally.


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Don't really see anything Seerish about Nogrod. Odd kill by the wolves, if you ask me.