WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Particularly picking someone who's been submarining for you, because if you focus on the person you are extremely suspicious of this could cloud our rationality and you start letting high emotions steer a lynch...not what we need today.

Exactly.

I could take a look at wilwa as I have no idea of her at the moment (she looks quite innocent and reasonable most of the time, but). I can also take a look at Greenie as there shouldn't be too many posts to read and she has totally flown under my radar. Although that will take place in the afternoon.


I thought I wouldn't come back to this issue any more, but maybe one more time...

Originally Posted by wilwa

I'm anxious because of Skip's unusual reveal, the reason for which doesn't make sense to me since the Hunter is our only Gifted left, our 'secret weapon', and revealing renders them useless, and no one else seems very concerned about that, in fact two players that I consider to be two of the smartest are all fine and dandy and believe him no problem, think that if he is lying the real Hunter should just play into his little trap and hand over our only advantage. This greatly concerns me.

Well, obviously Skip revealed because he was facing a lynching yesterDay at the last minutes - and a hunter doesn't want to die lynched because there is a possibility he takes an innocent with him. Looking at our numbers we hardly can afford losing two innocents in one lynch.

If we had lynched Skip-hunter yesterDay (and he had taken Leg with him as he says), we'd now be 5-3 with no "known innocent" around. Or think if he'd still be hidden and we'd lynch him and he'd miss his kill - we'd be on 4-3 facing the Night and wolves would win immediately.

So I'd say he's better out in the open now.


On the other hand, I have said that I trust him because I don't see any benefit for a baddie pulling out that kind of trick. After a night slept I must say I can see one scenario though.

So, for the argument's sake, let's suppose he is a wolf in danger of lynching yesterDay. He then comes up with this brilliant idea of posing as the hunter and threathening Inzil with taking him with if he votes for him. So now he has to continue the game as the hunter. That scenario would put this odd mistake in place:

Originally Posted by Skip

One thing you keep ignoring too is that if I die (whether lynched or night-killed) and make the mistake of hunting an innocent (and gawd, haven't I been making mistakes!) the wolves win there and then.

Although I must say that it would be odd if a wolf who poses as the hunter and had the whole Night time to prepare for his act wouldn't have checked the rules concerning the hunter (although it looks pretty weird that someone being the hunter for three Days wouldn't know them...). So it's an odd mistake whichever Skip's leanings are.

Well, if Skip is only posing, the real hunter knows that and thus more or less knows that Skip is a wolf or a cobbler. Considering that - and our dire need to lynch a baddie toDay - I'd say the hunter should really think about revealing this betrayal.* Especially if s/he faces lynching.

But without a real hunter coming forwards I think we should not lynch Skip as he could take away an innocent and we do an innocent double-lynch.



* There are of course many aspects to the hunter's decision, like how sure he is of his target for the Night if he would get attacked by the wolves, how sure he is about us getting a baddie toDay without his involvement in the affairs, or does he think we're lynching someone he really thinks is innocent...


Hey, I just found an optimistic scenario! If Skip is a wolf and we lynch a wolf toDay (other than him), then the wolves try to kill the real hunter the next Night and he takes one of them with him - then we just lynch Skip toMorrow and we win!


EDIT: X'd with wilwa!!!