WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So, after looking again through the thread yesterDay and the Day before that a bit too, some comments.

People I believe more innocent now related to what they said or whatnot in relation to Glirdan: Lommy (remarked about his possible guilt early in the Day because of ), Nienna (was among the first yesterDay to speak and she mentioned that Glirdan actually likely is a Wolf), Morsul (the same, even more strongly), Brinn (generally she said and voted in a few ways that make it seem genuine for her to be against the Wolves, and not just acting or something). The question is, how much were the Wolves willing to get rid of Glirdan yesterDay, there's a slight possibility that they have been decided from the beginning that he's gone and let him be. But in some way I find it more likely that they would not just give up and encourage his lynch strongly to make themselves look innocent. I think some stumbling in the middle is more expectable.

For that matter, my suspicion of Inzil with the theory that if Glirdan is a Wolf, Inzil might be a packmate with interesting way of choosing sides would of course work now. The curious thing however is that Inzil did something again which would be so clumsy that I can't believe he would do that - starting yesterDay with defending Glirdan, while he voted him the Day before. For an innocent, this behavior would make far more sense than for a Wolf. And given now that sally and Glirdan were both guilty, sally's remark "Inzil is innocent, I just know that" seems rather more unlikely to make if Inzil was another packmate of theirs - simply putting too much at risk.

So I am not sure right now what to think of Inzil. Anyway, as for what I have said about Greenie possibly dreaming about skip, his yesterDay's voting was on the other hand very suspicious - but then again, I have read this:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Glirdan – He came after Sally early, long before it became clear that either one of these two would die. I believe Glirdan proactively participating in lynching Sally is a sign of his innocence although not proof. At this point only a very shrewd wolf would actively go after a fellow wolf, because, let’s face it, a wolf lynched is a step towards a village victory, and an innocent lynched is a step away from that, there’s no getting around that simple fact. A wolf jumping on the bandwagon, yes why not, but actively working to make that bandwagon happen, I doubt it. I could be wrong and maybe that’s everyday business in the ww-world, but to me that feels like too much of a gamble for uncertain profits. For the moment Glirdan has redeemed himself.

I think this might be a very innocent explanation of why skip trusted Glirdan, and so in the end I am ready to accept him as innocent, given the other things like the probability that Greenie dreamed of him. But all in all, otherwise, things start getting rather dark. That means I probably have to look at the rest of the people whom I have not been looking very much at this far - like Shasta, Mira etc. I am also growing slight paranogroid, but... well.

[Thinlómien]

Here. Glad to see Glirdan gone and proven a wolf, but sorry to see poor little Greenie gone. I have skimmed through toDay's posts and agree with those who suspect Nogrod. Why? Because if Greenie hadn't spotted a wolf and made them nervous by that, I doubt they'd have killed her since assuming they're assuming that Lottie was protected by the ranger on Night3, they would now have had their chance of getting rid of the known innocent. And, as somebody said, Greenie would've been a lynch candidate toDay probably, so they must've had the real reason to kill her.

This all leads me to believe she dreamt of Nogrod and the wolves noticed it (or she didn't but the wolves still thought she did) and that's why I did. Nog's downplaying of her suspicion yesterDay ("she always suspects me") would support this theory (although I must admit I started the talk about her always suspecting him). Another possibility is that she dreamt of (or seemd to have dreamt of) Shastawolf, but I can't say whether that's a plausible theory before I've checked some facts.

It's always such a pity when the seer dies without being able to come out. Well, we just have to live with it and try to find out her dreams - and on the positive side, we have lynched two wolves and a cobbler in three Days. Not bad!

Now I'm off to find some quotes to reply...

PS. Legate, you have exactly 5000 posts!

[Thinlómien]

Points from yesterDay after I went to sleep

Nogrod must be guilty since he has Sauron on his yard. Now I remember that when I was reading the happenings overNight I was thinking the remaining wolves must be Nogrod/Nerwen/Aganzir and Skip. I don't remember why I thought so, and my opinions are altered/altering, but thought to mention that.

It would be incredibly funny of Zil was a wolf. Wolves on the tops of suspicion lists all the time. But to be honest, Zil does make me suspicious: he thinks so differently all the time, he's been so wrong about things, it really doesn't seem very innocent anymore. On the other hand, the village has had three or four heavy suspects this far, and two of them have been wolves, so we might have Zil here as the quota innocent who just seems darn suspicious...


Points from toDay

As for Zil and Lottie's very helpful (thanks!) Greenie quotes, I'd think she dreamt of

Night1 by Day1 posts: innocent Agan (?) (I think she must've mentioned the innocent she found in case she gets extremely unlucky and gets killed. The other option, which I actually find more likely - now that I think of it - given her flip-flopping on Agan later on is that she dreamt of someone who hadn't appeared yet when she posted and thus she had no excuse to mention him/her. I will certainly do some rereading toDay so I can check who posted only after her and compare that with her Day2 list of people...)

Night2 by Day2 posts: innocent Mira ("feels innocent though I disagree with her a lot") or wolf-Shasta (she starts suspecting him) or with bad luck innocent Lottie or innocent Legate ("seems innocentish this far") or innocent Skip ("seems maybe the most innocentish at this point (discounting Lottie and myself, of course), makes sense and feels genuine") or innocent me ("has dropped the mysterious attitude and feels more or less like her innocent self") or innocent Brinn ("I'm leaning towards thinking her innocent. Her reactions seem genuine to me"). If she dreamt of Skip, it feels likely she also dreamt of Fea, Boro, Lottie or wolf Shasta. Why? Because she singled Skip out as the most innocent, which would be a weird thing for a seer to do if she had two known innocents. If looking at phrasings as clues to separating dreams from other stuff, Mira and I "feel" innocent while Legate and Skip "seem" innocent, and Skip and Brinn seem "genuine". This would make me think that if she had two known innocents, it would be those to whom she refers by seeming (seeming vs seer) or those she singles out by the word "genuine".

Night3 by Day3 posts: I doubt she'd have incriminated her known innocents ways of interacting with Sally. Thus I would conclude her known innocents are among those she cathegorised "good" or had no material of, aka Nienna, Legate, Winty, Brinn, Skip and Mira, and she could very well have dreamt of a Wolfgrod.

I understand I can't make a whole picture of her dreams without really checking who hadn't posted before she voted on Day1. I will do that after finishing this post, but now I think the most believable dream chain would be something like Boro - Skip - Nog. I remember Boro posted only after her on Day1 and he'd be a believable Night1 pick for almost any seer, Greenie having no more than one known innocent on Day2 would explain her phrasing about Skippy and her dreaming of Nog would explain her confident yet slightly grasping-at-straws seeming attack on Nog on Day3.

The only thing I'm wondering about is that whether she'd have come out with one known wolf. I thought this for a while and concluded no. She was suspected so much that she would've felt pretty safe from Night kills and if my (slightly far-fetched but not bad) specution is correct and she only had one known innocent, I think she would've wanted to have at least one more dream. Alas that it backfired! *feels like Legolas or some other funny LotR character who says "alas!" all the time*

Lottie, hold your horses! Now new crusades, darling, please. I'm not cliaming Morsul's innocent but I'm sensing another full frontal attack and not sure if that's good...

[Thinlómien]

Now I'm off to have a slight pause from ww and then I'm coming back and start working.

We have quite a lot of untouched evidence. I'm going to do the ambitious thing: check all Sally and especially Glirdan's interactions with all the people alive.

Since I will skim through all of this thread (eurgh) I will also have a look at people who could've been Greenie's Night1 dream and at Izzy's suspects in case she was killed for looking like the seer (just if anything catches my eye).

[Nerwen]

#286. "I'm here" and IC banter.


#326
Says Lottie is "running amok"; suspects are "naturally annoyed, whatever their role". Says there have been "interesting points" raised (doesn't specify).


#333. Conveys Agan's intention to vote for Zil (Agan's connection had died).


#336
Likes the points raised against Sally, Zil, and "to a lesser extent") Glirdy and Brinn (whatever those were). Thinks well of Agan, Greenie, Skip and Izzy.
Comments: And that really is all he said... hardly anything to summarise.


343
Notes as "interesting" (one word comment) a post where Glirdan seemingly copied wintywinty's wording. Glirdan at #409 seems to overreact to this.


#333.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

More interesting details pouring out?

Comments: Probably nothing here... but that is a rather odd thing to say, just by itself, with no indication what he thinks of Sally at this point. If Sallywolf *had* indeed planned to impersonate the Seer, this could be read as prompting her to reveal, or at least drawing attention to her hints for other players' benefit.


#364
Says he is disappointed by his own lack of input, blames it on tiredness.

As you Lottie mentioned it, I suddenly remembered this (I was coming convinced that she is innocent - Greenie that is - just becasue I knew she had a tough day on D1 and I could sympathise with her haste and tiredness toDay coming to the thread such late). But it could actually fit.

This, I assume, refers to Lottie's theory that Greenie and Sally were packmates.


#378
Doesn't like Mira and finds her vote on wintywinty too easy, likewise Shasta's "rambling over whether to lynch Morsul or winty". Reminds everyone that Morsul's playing style always gets him suspected and often lynched, and that winty is just a newbie; believes winty's comment about Brinn was innocent.

Comments: Reasonable... unless of course he does turn out to be a wolf, in which case Morsul or wintywinty could be his packmate.


#388
Wonders if Sally is guilty, since she seems ready to see any comment as a threat. Asks her if she's "resigning already". Approves Lottie's bringing forward an alternative candidate (Glirdy) and disagrees with Sally that Lottie's plan has "gaping holes".

Comments: This post may have helped get Sally lynched: Nienna (##391 appears quite impressed by it, and as we know she went on to give Sally her death-blow.


#390
Votes Sally (Sally 5). Says he had considered voting Glirdan, but found him less suspicious than Sally.


General Comments: Meh... Can't really tell either way– he's given so little to go on. No wonder he's been under the radar! This could be Nogwolf testing the wind, then resigning himself to losing a comrade and taking a while to decide which one to vote for– or innocent Nogrod without time and/or energy to contribute much. (Note though, that he's posted quite a lot, it's just that most of it lacks substance.) Did play a real, if small, part in getting Sally lynched, but some of his other posts seem off.

EDIT:X'd with two Lommies.

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Uh-oh... This doesn't make any sense.

I mean really. There was that "you are no seer" -thing, but that's basically the only thing one could say that would hint towards her being the seer. So the wolves got really lucky this time. But getting lucky doesn't explain why they chose her. For some actual reason or just to confuse us?

Okay. One scenario: like someone said already, maybe they were taking even more heat than we know? Making a totally odd kill would keep us going around the subject for quite a while - and thus we might let our main suspicions from yesterDay to recede?

Well I'm not impressed by that interpretation but at the moment I can't think of a better one.

Btw. I do appreciate the effort of trying to figure out whom she dreamt of but as you can see, Greenie was clearly intentionally ambiguous about her knowledge... to a point we have no way of "knowing" anything from her posting (we should read her closely and try to form some opinions of them to be sure but I'm afraid that we can't quite trust those interpretations fully). It's always a bit unfair to speak bad of the dead, but I really think she should have been a tad more forthcoming with her knowledge. Maybe she felt she was safe, but going to N4 without giving even one clear hint is a little reckless.

And really, toying with a scenario. If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me wouldn't she have said that openly? She would have gotten at least one more dream and the wolves would be down to one after you lynched me toDay. Also she could have thus given us all the known innocents (or even the last wolf!) she had clear and openly and not leave us into this interpretation-game over them.

I do think Greenie is smart enough to have gathered that.


Okay. I have to run now but I'll be back in the evening (RL).

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Thinlómien]

Massive disagreement with Nogrod:

1) Greenie's smart, but because she was suspected so much and she hadn't posted anything obviously seerish (as we have noticed when trying to analyse her dreams), I think she would've dared not to come out, especially if she had lost one dream (dreamt of someone who died) at some point, which is an option we have to keep in mind.

2) Looking at a seer's posts is never a bad thing. You may be pessimistic (or a wolf), but I'm not. I have correctly interpreted a dead seer's dreams before and Greenie is just a tad more difficult challenge. You of all people should remember this (remember the last game you modded?). There's no way for us to find the absolute truth about Greenie's dreams, but we can make good guesses which can help us in our suspicions. A bit the same way a wolf's fellow wolves can't be absolutely logically found out from his/her posts but we can make good guesses to one way or another... Besides, currently we could even afford to be misguided for a Day or two and people tend to rethink things in the light of new events.

[Morsul the Dark]

Lottie

1. And you said Agan was rude!

Should have added a smilie I meant it jokingly I didn't call her lazy. However point taken I apologize.

Again I keep saying it because I'm excited I never list reasons why I voted the way I did? I did list them. I found Sally suspicious and after reading I believe your analysis it seemed confirmed. I voted Glirdan because of Sally's post it made NO sense any other way for me. and Winty voted because of a first post vote followed by "Day 1 who cares"

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

One more thing I just realized with Morsul:

He keeps proclaiming that he's successfully voted for two wolves in two consecutive Days. Okay. That's lovely.

How, exactly, would you know who to vote? You don't post anything to tell us. We are left to assume you know this because you are part of the pack. So maybe you don't want to emphasize that quite as much as you are. Just sayin'.

Mmn. I think it fair to say that Morsul is doing *remarkably* well for someone who's scarcely been around... to the point where he bears looking at.
However, you are exaggerating a bit there, Lottie: in fact he put forward quite serviceable reasons of his own for voting Glirdan here.

As for Nogrod, I am seriously considering voting him after his last post (#587). "Working out the dead Seer's dreams? What a waste of time!"

But I haven't done Day 3 yet, so I'll just have to do my best not to let it bias my judgement.

[Morsul the Dark]

Thanks Nerwen... But I've fallen for your flattery before *glares* I'm not this time

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

I see you are making bad calculations...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Massive disagreement with Nogrod:

I actually disagree with the massiveness of your disagreement... Well at least with the point 2.

1) Greenie's smart, but because she was suspected so much and she hadn't posted anything obviously seerish (as we have noticed when trying to analyse her dreams), I think she would've dared not to come out, especially if she had lost one dream (dreamt of someone who died) at some point, which is an option we have to keep in mind.

According to your scenario she had dreamt of at least one wolf (me) - and if we contiune with that scenario probably also of another (Glirdan) because she put us both into the same category of "bad". If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me but not Glirdy, why would she mess with our heads by claiming me and Glirdy belonging to the same group? So if she had two wolves bagged why didn't she come forwards with it? I feel you're really trying to force your point now and it doesn't look too good.

2) Looking at a seer's posts is never a bad thing. You may be pessimistic (or a wolf), but I'm not. I have correctly interpreted a dead seer's dreams before and Greenie is just a tad more difficult challenge. You of all people should remember this (remember the last game you modded?). There's no way for us to find the absolute truth about Greenie's dreams, but we can make good guesses which can help us in our suspicions. A bit the same way a wolf's fellow wolves can't be absolutely logically found out from his/her posts but we can make good guesses to one way or another... Besides, currently we could even afford to be misguided for a Day or two and people tend to rethink things in the light of new events.

Well, first of all there is a way to get "absolute truths" from the seer's dreams and that is when the seer comes forwards, tells the dreams openly and dies to prove her claim to seership. And Greenie knows that.

Sadly she didn't give us that option which probably tells us that she had a) no wolves, and b) she had less than three innocents.

But yes, I truly agree that we should speculate about the possible dreams - I actually said it in my post back there - but you Lommy seem to be picky with what you take into account and what you don't... And I also agree that we can afford a mislynch or two right now looking at the numbers.

Surely the only way for me to prove I'm right is that you lynch me, and well that's okay. As I said, we can afford a mislynch. I understand the situation perfectly well. But I do recommend you fight over it and then when I'm dead you draw your conclusions based on what people thought of my lynching.

Surely I'd like to stay around for a Day or two as fex. toMorrow I would have time to really delve into this, but well that's not up to me.

Anyway Lommy's trigger-happiness has raised her up in my suspicions quite a lot.


There were some other things I thought I'd say but I have forgotten. I'll go back to the thread and be right back.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*


EDIT: X'd with Agan & Legate

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Either the kill was done to frame Nogrod and drive us away from the current (resp. yesterDay's) main suspects, which for me would mean e.g. Inzil especially, or the kill was done to kill a Seer, which would mean most likely a Wolfgrod.

I agree. However I don't think Greenie suspected Nog heavily enough for the wolves to think they could frame Nog by killing her, and therefore your second option seems to me more likely. If she hadn't actually been the seer Nog might have got away with it, but now I think we're better off if we lynch him.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me but not Glirdy, why would she mess with our heads by claiming me and Glirdy belonging to the same group? So if she had two wolves bagged why didn't she come forwards with it?

Maybe because she didn't want to appear too obvious? I remember a game where the guy who be seer put both Fea (dreamt of wolf) and me (not dreamt of innocent) as evil and everybody thought we both must be guilty... So, wise or not, seers do that. And given her posting, does it look like she had dreamt of Glirdan?

Originally Posted by Nog

Would you explain to me why the wolves would wish to kill Lottie? She is not the cursed, as our moddess herself specifically told us if I recall it right. Why would they waste their kill on Lottie?

Would Mr. Cat like to explain to me why the wolves would not want to kill a known innocent?
Or did you just betray something of your night talk? Are the wolves only desperate to find the cursed now?

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Would Mr. Cat like to explain to me why the wolves would not want to kill a known innocent?

I'm not claiming the wolves would love to have a known innocent around, but I think it's rather safe to assume that as they lost two wolves and a cobbler in three Days they'd rather wish for reinforcements rather sooner than later.

Originally Posted by Agan

However I don't think Greenie suspected Nog heavily enough for the wolves to think they could frame Nog by killing her, and therefore your second option seems to me more likely.

You seem to have also a bad memory on top of lazy thinking habits...

Originally Posted by me

Okay. One scenario: like someone said already, maybe they were taking even more heat than we know? Making a totally odd kill would keep us going around the subject for quite a while - and thus we might let our main suspicions from yesterDay to recede?

What I think now is the following. The wolves wished to make a puzzling kill so as to keep us occupied with it (success indeed). That means at least one of them was in considerable trouble already yesterDay and they wished to change the scope of discussion once and for all. Greenie happening to be the seer was a bonus they couldn't have anticipated - but they would love to turn it into their advantage toDay with getting me lynched. *coughLommycough*


(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[skip spence]

Lommy has a good point about the wolves not killing Greenie unless she had given them a reason to worry when they could've gone after Lottie instead, I think.

Yes, killing Greenie was a surprising decision (and I'll miss having her around). But what possible reason could the wolves have to believe she was the seer? From what I've gathered she was always perfectly ambiguous and vague about everyone, and tried her best to stay out of trouble. I was starting to suspect her as a wolf for these reasons. Could the wolves have felt that this was a reason to suspect her being the Seer, with the knowledge that she wasn't a wolf?

And why not Lottie? Two reasons I can think of. Maybe they think the ranger will protect her every other night and that the risk of missing out on a kill is too great. Or that the people Lottie now suspects are innocent, and that she's likely to cause as much bloodshed among the villagers as she already has among the wolves. I'm not so sure who's on top of Lottie's suspect list any longer though.

Morsul's odd though, wouldn't you say? Can't give this too much time but I will look into some of his statements now. There seems to be a pattern to his seemingly erratic behaviour, one that tempts me to cry... what is the word again ... oh yes wolf.