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#1 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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So, after looking again through the thread yesterDay and the Day before that a bit too, some comments.
People I believe more innocent now related to what they said or whatnot in relation to Glirdan: Lommy (remarked about his possible guilt early in the Day because of ), Nienna (was among the first yesterDay to speak and she mentioned that Glirdan actually likely is a Wolf), Morsul (the same, even more strongly), Brinn (generally she said and voted in a few ways that make it seem genuine for her to be against the Wolves, and not just acting or something). The question is, how much were the Wolves willing to get rid of Glirdan yesterDay, there's a slight possibility that they have been decided from the beginning that he's gone and let him be. But in some way I find it more likely that they would not just give up and encourage his lynch strongly to make themselves look innocent. I think some stumbling in the middle is more expectable. For that matter, my suspicion of Inzil with the theory that if Glirdan is a Wolf, Inzil might be a packmate with interesting way of choosing sides would of course work now. The curious thing however is that Inzil did something again which would be so clumsy that I can't believe he would do that - starting yesterDay with defending Glirdan, while he voted him the Day before. For an innocent, this behavior would make far more sense than for a Wolf. And given now that sally and Glirdan were both guilty, sally's remark "Inzil is innocent, I just know that" seems rather more unlikely to make if Inzil was another packmate of theirs - simply putting too much at risk. So I am not sure right now what to think of Inzil. Anyway, as for what I have said about Greenie possibly dreaming about skip, his yesterDay's voting was on the other hand very suspicious - but then again, I have read this: Quote:
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#2 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Here. Glad to see Glirdan gone and proven a wolf, but sorry to see poor little Greenie gone. I have skimmed through toDay's posts and agree with those who suspect Nogrod. Why? Because if Greenie hadn't spotted a wolf and made them nervous by that, I doubt they'd have killed her since assuming they're assuming that Lottie was protected by the ranger on Night3, they would now have had their chance of getting rid of the known innocent. And, as somebody said, Greenie would've been a lynch candidate toDay probably, so they must've had the real reason to kill her.
This all leads me to believe she dreamt of Nogrod and the wolves noticed it (or she didn't but the wolves still thought she did) and that's why I did. Nog's downplaying of her suspicion yesterDay ("she always suspects me") would support this theory (although I must admit I started the talk about her always suspecting him). Another possibility is that she dreamt of (or seemd to have dreamt of) Shastawolf, but I can't say whether that's a plausible theory before I've checked some facts. It's always such a pity when the seer dies without being able to come out. Well, we just have to live with it and try to find out her dreams - and on the positive side, we have lynched two wolves and a cobbler in three Days. Not bad! Now I'm off to find some quotes to reply... PS. Legate, you have exactly 5000 posts! ![]()
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#3 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Points from yesterDay after I went to sleep
Nogrod must be guilty since he has Sauron on his yard. ![]() It would be incredibly funny of Zil was a wolf. Wolves on the tops of suspicion lists all the time. ![]() Points from toDay As for Zil and Lottie's very helpful (thanks!) Greenie quotes, I'd think she dreamt of Night1 by Day1 posts: innocent Agan (?) (I think she must've mentioned the innocent she found in case she gets extremely unlucky and gets killed. The other option, which I actually find more likely - now that I think of it - given her flip-flopping on Agan later on is that she dreamt of someone who hadn't appeared yet when she posted and thus she had no excuse to mention him/her. I will certainly do some rereading toDay so I can check who posted only after her and compare that with her Day2 list of people...) Night2 by Day2 posts: innocent Mira ("feels innocent though I disagree with her a lot") or wolf-Shasta (she starts suspecting him) or with bad luck innocent Lottie or innocent Legate ("seems innocentish this far") or innocent Skip ("seems maybe the most innocentish at this point (discounting Lottie and myself, of course), makes sense and feels genuine") or innocent me ("has dropped the mysterious attitude and feels more or less like her innocent self") or innocent Brinn ("I'm leaning towards thinking her innocent. Her reactions seem genuine to me"). If she dreamt of Skip, it feels likely she also dreamt of Fea, Boro, Lottie or wolf Shasta. Why? Because she singled Skip out as the most innocent, which would be a weird thing for a seer to do if she had two known innocents. If looking at phrasings as clues to separating dreams from other stuff, Mira and I "feel" innocent while Legate and Skip "seem" innocent, and Skip and Brinn seem "genuine". This would make me think that if she had two known innocents, it would be those to whom she refers by seeming (seeming vs seer) or those she singles out by the word "genuine". Night3 by Day3 posts: I doubt she'd have incriminated her known innocents ways of interacting with Sally. Thus I would conclude her known innocents are among those she cathegorised "good" or had no material of, aka Nienna, Legate, Winty, Brinn, Skip and Mira, and she could very well have dreamt of a Wolfgrod. I understand I can't make a whole picture of her dreams without really checking who hadn't posted before she voted on Day1. I will do that after finishing this post, but now I think the most believable dream chain would be something like Boro - Skip - Nog. I remember Boro posted only after her on Day1 and he'd be a believable Night1 pick for almost any seer, Greenie having no more than one known innocent on Day2 would explain her phrasing about Skippy and her dreaming of Nog would explain her confident yet slightly grasping-at-straws seeming attack on Nog on Day3. The only thing I'm wondering about is that whether she'd have come out with one known wolf. I thought this for a while and concluded no. She was suspected so much that she would've felt pretty safe from Night kills and if my (slightly far-fetched but not bad) specution is correct and she only had one known innocent, I think she would've wanted to have at least one more dream. Alas that it backfired! *feels like Legolas or some other funny LotR character who says "alas!" all the time* ![]() Lottie, hold your horses! Now new crusades, darling, please. I'm not cliaming Morsul's innocent but I'm sensing another full frontal attack and not sure if that's good...
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
Last edited by Thinlómien; 04-14-2010 at 04:14 AM. Reason: had written "specialtion" instead of "speculation"... |
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#4 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Now I'm off to have a slight pause from ww and then I'm coming back and start working.
We have quite a lot of untouched evidence. I'm going to do the ambitious thing: check all Sally and especially Glirdan's interactions with all the people alive. Since I will skim through all of this thread (eurgh) I will also have a look at people who could've been Greenie's Night1 dream and at Izzy's suspects in case she was killed for looking like the seer (just if anything catches my eye).
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#5 | ||||
Wisest of the Noldor
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Nogrod, Day Two
#286. "I'm here" and IC banter.
#326 Says Lottie is "running amok"; suspects are "naturally annoyed, whatever their role". Says there have been "interesting points" raised (doesn't specify). #333. Conveys Agan's intention to vote for Zil (Agan's connection had died). #336 Likes the points raised against Sally, Zil, and "to a lesser extent") Glirdy and Brinn (whatever those were). Thinks well of Agan, Greenie, Skip and Izzy. Comments: And that really is all he said... hardly anything to summarise. 343 Notes as "interesting" (one word comment) a post where Glirdan seemingly copied wintywinty's wording. Glirdan at #409 seems to overreact to this. #333. Quote:
#364 Says he is disappointed by his own lack of input, blames it on tiredness. Quote:
#378 Doesn't like Mira and finds her vote on wintywinty too easy, likewise Shasta's "rambling over whether to lynch Morsul or winty". Reminds everyone that Morsul's playing style always gets him suspected and often lynched, and that winty is just a newbie; believes winty's comment about Brinn was innocent. Comments: Reasonable... unless of course he does turn out to be a wolf, in which case Morsul or wintywinty could be his packmate. #388 Wonders if Sally is guilty, since she seems ready to see any comment as a threat. Asks her if she's "resigning already". Approves Lottie's bringing forward an alternative candidate (Glirdy) and disagrees with Sally that Lottie's plan has "gaping holes". Comments: This post may have helped get Sally lynched: Nienna (##391 appears quite impressed by it, and as we know she went on to give Sally her death-blow. #390 Votes Sally (Sally 5). Says he had considered voting Glirdan, but found him less suspicious than Sally. General Comments: Meh... Can't really tell either way– he's given so little to go on. No wonder he's been under the radar! This could be Nogwolf testing the wind, then resigning himself to losing a comrade and taking a while to decide which one to vote for– or innocent Nogrod without time and/or energy to contribute much. (Note though, that he's posted quite a lot, it's just that most of it lacks substance.) Did play a real, if small, part in getting Sally lynched, but some of his other posts seem off. EDIT:X'd with two Lommies.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#6 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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(~~~) *grin appearing*
Uh-oh... This doesn't make any sense. I mean really. There was that "you are no seer" -thing, but that's basically the only thing one could say that would hint towards her being the seer. So the wolves got really lucky this time. But getting lucky doesn't explain why they chose her. For some actual reason or just to confuse us? Okay. One scenario: like someone said already, maybe they were taking even more heat than we know? Making a totally odd kill would keep us going around the subject for quite a while - and thus we might let our main suspicions from yesterDay to recede? Well I'm not impressed by that interpretation but at the moment I can't think of a better one. Btw. I do appreciate the effort of trying to figure out whom she dreamt of but as you can see, Greenie was clearly intentionally ambiguous about her knowledge... to a point we have no way of "knowing" anything from her posting (we should read her closely and try to form some opinions of them to be sure but I'm afraid that we can't quite trust those interpretations fully). It's always a bit unfair to speak bad of the dead, but I really think she should have been a tad more forthcoming with her knowledge. Maybe she felt she was safe, but going to N4 without giving even one clear hint is a little reckless. And really, toying with a scenario. If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me wouldn't she have said that openly? She would have gotten at least one more dream and the wolves would be down to one after you lynched me toDay. Also she could have thus given us all the known innocents (or even the last wolf!) she had clear and openly and not leave us into this interpretation-game over them. I do think Greenie is smart enough to have gathered that. Okay. I have to run now but I'll be back in the evening (RL). (~~~) *grin vanishing*
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#7 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Massive disagreement with Nogrod:
1) Greenie's smart, but because she was suspected so much and she hadn't posted anything obviously seerish (as we have noticed when trying to analyse her dreams), I think she would've dared not to come out, especially if she had lost one dream (dreamt of someone who died) at some point, which is an option we have to keep in mind. 2) Looking at a seer's posts is never a bad thing. You may be pessimistic (or a wolf), but I'm not. I have correctly interpreted a dead seer's dreams before and Greenie is just a tad more difficult challenge. You of all people should remember this (remember the last game you modded?). There's no way for us to find the absolute truth about Greenie's dreams, but we can make good guesses which can help us in our suspicions. A bit the same way a wolf's fellow wolves can't be absolutely logically found out from his/her posts but we can make good guesses to one way or another... Besides, currently we could even afford to be misguided for a Day or two and people tend to rethink things in the light of new events. ![]()
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#8 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Lottie
Quote:
Again I keep saying it because I'm excited I never list reasons why I voted the way I did? I did list them. I found Sally suspicious and after reading I believe your analysis it seemed confirmed. I voted Glirdan because of Sally's post it made NO sense any other way for me. and Winty voted because of a first post vote followed by "Day 1 who cares"
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#9 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
However, you are exaggerating a bit there, Lottie: in fact he put forward quite serviceable reasons of his own for voting Glirdan here. As for Nogrod, I am seriously considering voting him after his last post (#587). "Working out the dead Seer's dreams? What a waste of time!" ![]() But I haven't done Day 3 yet, so I'll just have to do my best not to let it bias my judgement.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#10 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Thanks Nerwen... But I've fallen for your flattery before *glares* I'm not this time
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#11 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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(~~~) *grin appearing*
I see you are making bad calculations... I actually disagree with the massiveness of your disagreement... ![]() Quote:
Quote:
Sadly she didn't give us that option which probably tells us that she had a) no wolves, and b) she had less than three innocents. But yes, I truly agree that we should speculate about the possible dreams - I actually said it in my post back there - but you Lommy seem to be picky with what you take into account and what you don't... And I also agree that we can afford a mislynch or two right now looking at the numbers. Surely the only way for me to prove I'm right is that you lynch me, and well that's okay. As I said, we can afford a mislynch. I understand the situation perfectly well. But I do recommend you fight over it and then when I'm dead you draw your conclusions based on what people thought of my lynching. Surely I'd like to stay around for a Day or two as fex. toMorrow I would have time to really delve into this, but well that's not up to me. Anyway Lommy's trigger-happiness has raised her up in my suspicions quite a lot. There were some other things I thought I'd say but I have forgotten. I'll go back to the thread and be right back. (~~~) *grin vanishing* EDIT: X'd with Agan & Legate
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#12 | |||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Quote:
Quote:
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![]() Or did you just betray something of your night talk? Are the wolves only desperate to find the cursed now? ![]()
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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#13 | |||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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(~~~) *grin appearing*
Quote:
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(~~~) *grin vanishing*
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#14 | |
shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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Is here, vainly trying to make some sense of of this...
Quote:
And why not Lottie? Two reasons I can think of. Maybe they think the ranger will protect her every other night and that the risk of missing out on a kill is too great. Or that the people Lottie now suspects are innocent, and that she's likely to cause as much bloodshed among the villagers as she already has among the wolves. I'm not so sure who's on top of Lottie's suspect list any longer though. Morsul's odd though, wouldn't you say? Can't give this too much time but I will look into some of his statements now. There seems to be a pattern to his seemingly erratic behaviour, one that tempts me to cry... what is the word again ... oh yes wolf.
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