WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Loslote]

Removed smilies.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

*falls from horse*

Did the rules say we have to play mad instead of just having a WW game in a mad setting? Seriously, this is one of the oddest Day 1 beginnings I have ever seen. I dislike the votes so far, though that isn't to say anything on whether they are necessarily signs of wolvery or not.

My contribution toDay will be pretty much horrible - this is the worst possible day for me to be playing Werewolf - but I promise to be much more active in the Days to come! I've got to dash, but I'll return later. Try to be sensible, meanwhile. (It's easy for me to say, of course, given that I won't be around for most of toDay.. )

Complains a bit (understandably) about the insanity so far.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

*falls from horse*
Back again! I'm feeling slightly hyper right now, so don't be annoyed if I'm not making much sense.. But here come some impressions of toDay.
I don't see Winty's vote as suspicious - nor innocent-looking, for that matter - it just is. Meaning that s/he (which is it, by the way?) could have done that just as well as a wolf as an innocent, and thus drawing conclusions on that seems weird to me. But then, everything here is weird.

Agan is lovely and provides a lot of substance (I'd raise my hat if I had one, unfortunately I only wear a helmet), I don't suspect her - but then, I always suspect her when she's innocent, so maybe she's a wolf now. Gah, I'm flip-flopping. Family vice. Sorry.

Lottie's analysis post was interesting, but I found the "gut feeling"-thing slightly eyebrow-raising. The so-called gut feelings were mostly reasoned points, so why call them gut feelings? It just struck me that calling a point a mere gut feeling kind of lessens the responsibility over it - one can, later, claim it was just a gut feeling, not my fault that we lynched an innocent, whoops.

Lommy is acting purposefully mysterious which strikes me as weird - she's having this manner of "I know something you others don't, let's see if I care to share it!" I don't quite know what to make of it, it's not usual her but then I'm not sure if it's necessarily suspicious either.

Okay, enough ranting, I don't remember if I had something to say about someone else still, so I'll let Lommy post and go to sleep and then do the same myself. Back soon babes!

Gives her impressions on people. If her Night 1 dream is among them, I'd guess it was Agan...but I don't think she mentioned her dream here.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Eurgh. Sorry. My concentration is poor today.

I know this reasoning is outrageously bad, but I'll tell it anyway because it's what I'm thinking: I'm kind of afraid that Lottie will become this typical Day 1 easy lynch (ordo), but then again, she's the only one I have any valid point at all, so

[*highlight]++ Lottie[/highlight*]


EDIT: eek x-ed since Boro

Votes me...and I think we can assume this means she dreamt an innocent first Night.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Phew. Here at last, been running all day and now it's getting late again. I so wish the Day and Night phases were the other way round... So if I seem to be over-reacting (I fear I am) it's because I'm tired. This will be a mostly self-defensive post. The next one will include something rather more relevant to the game, I hope.
Seriously, I know being annoyed won't exactly help a thing, but I can't but be a tad annoyed. What, exactly, are your reasons for suspecting me? I suspected you yesterDay and happened to get the internet after Lommy (we're using the same one) so I voted you only after some others had done that already. That, I suppose, made my vote bandwaggonish. I had a reason to suspect you, I didn't have reason to suspect anyone else, so I voted you. Simple as that. And I think I had voiced my suspicion of you before the bandwagon against you had even started, so you can't claim my vote was just jumping on the bandwagon. As for the apologetic tone of my vote post, I was being honest. It did pop into my mind that I might be pursuing what would turn out a typical Day 1 easy lynch. I made the mistake of saying it aloud – if I had just played more confident than I was no one would have made such a fuss about my vote. Give me better arguments, please.
Not quite! Outrageously bad phrasing, more like. The outrageously bad had to do with that I was kind of worried about a typical easy Day 1 lynch, but still wanted to vote for Lottie who I suspected. My reasons for voting Lottie, while not all that great, were still substantial by Day 1 standards.

EDIT: eurgh x-ed with a horse (hehe what a typo, was supposed to write 'horde' )

Defends herself; doesn't say anything that could be taken as a dream.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Yeah. I was referring to the reasoning that I'm afraid of a typical Day 1 easy lynch but still vote for you. My actual reasoning for suspecting you wasn't outrageously bad. If I still can't make this understood, I suppose I must blame being a non-native speaker for not being able to explain myself.
You did miss something. It was that she called every point she had a gut-feeling, also those that were actual reasoned points and not gut-feelings - which struck me as horribly fishy. But really, discussing this is not fruitful as far as I can see.

Now to write some actual substance. I'm sick of talking about myself.

Defends herself again.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Okay, but why were you pretty confident about her?
Yes, I think we can rather safely assume that Lottie has the village's best interests at heart. But she is not the seer. She doesn't know anybody's role and can be as wrong as any of us.

Eurgh I had some other quotes I wanted to comment on but it seems I've lost them. Off to write a list and then vote. I'll probably be suspected for voting out of the blue this time () because I don't have much of an idea until I've looked at the list of villagers and considered each one in turn.

EDIT: x-ed with Glirdy and Lottie

But she is not the seer...okay, in hindsight, lol. XD Anyway...she responds to Nienna, but I don't think she knew what Nienna's role was at the time.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Ok, great. Really, I'm sorry if I've sounded cross, I'm just very very tired and it's very very late and I've been up since rather early morning.

Responding to me; not much seer-ness there.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Glirdan – Hmm. I have no read on him myself, others have brought up good points against him, though, but I'd have to investigate myself to form an opinion.

Nogrod – Usually, at this point of the game, I'm convinced he's a wolf. This far I guess he's never been one when we've played together. So now I'm wondering if I should get worried as I've found no reason to suspect him...

Wintywinty – Too little to go on with.

Isabellkya – From what I remember of her she's been making sense and passing unnoticed. I have no reason to suspect her, but she alarms me a little because of being so smooth and sensible.

Mira – Feels innocent though I disagree with her a lot.

Sally – Her behaviour yesterDay around the voting, concerning Lottie, was weird. Other than that, she's been the usual hard-to-read Sally.

Agan – Seems genuine and makes a lot of sense. I'm not saying she's innocent - I know how capable she is of fooling me - but I won't be voting her without a good reason.

Inzil – No effing idea.

Shasta – The reasoning for his vote was rather bad, could be even wolvish - I was a little (green) suspected at that point I think but not much, so voting for me would have been rather ideal: not rubbing people the wrong way, yet not bandwaggoning either. Otherwise he has flown under my radar.

Lottie – I believe her claim though I disagree with her about almost everything.

Nerwen – No idea.

Legate – Seems innocentish this far.

Morsul – No idea.

Nienna – Hmm. Not sure. At times she feels very genuine, at others she feels like a sneaky wolf. Can't say which she is.

Skip – Seems maybe the most innocentish at this point (discounting Lottie and myself, of course), makes sense and feels genuine.

Lommy – Has dropped the mysterious attitude and feels more or less like her innocent self.

Brinniel – I'm leaning towards thinking her innocent. Her reactions seem genuine to me.


EDIT: x-ed since my last

List! Here we go (dream-wise). She says Skip "seems maybe the most innocentish at this point". This makes me inclined to think that she might have dreamed him...but not for sure. It also looks likely that she dreamt innocent!Agan - "I won't be voting her without a good reason." She also could have dreamed innocent!Mira, innocent!Lommy, innocent!Brinn, or innocent!Legate. She says they all seem innocent at this point, and I'm pretty sure she'd dreamed of innocent people.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I sincerely hope that you will not succeed in your attempt. Talking about getting people lynched, I'd be interested to know who people are going to vote. I want to go to bed as soon as possible, but I'd like to hear some more opinions before voting..

EDIT: x-ed with Noggy, Winty & Glirdy

Asks for ideas of who people are going to vote.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Eurgh. I'm starting to see why Glirdy is suspected. I didn't like that long post of his at all. Or, it was long, but it included mainly suspicion on one of the village's top suspects and confirming innocent a person everyone's been considering innocent pretty much all Day. He could be an innocent who just suspects the same person as everyone else, but I didn't like the tone of that post.

She says she's beginning to suspect Glirdy. Now, this may be wishful thinking, but I don't think she'd dreamt him at this point.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Right. I'm too tired to look up your vote post so correct me if I'm straying, but I believe you voted me because my vote seemed bandwaggonish. I think I've said enough about that vote already. What struck me as fishy about your vote was not only that it seemed ideally placed for a wolf, but also that voting someone for a bandwaggonish vote is about as easy a reason for a vote one can come up with, one that is seldom questioned though rather flimsy.

I was about to vote for you, but your latest post made me wonder if I should after all, it seemed somewhat genuine and sensible.


EDIT: x-ed with Shasta and Sally

Hmm. Says she supects Shasta but that the last post seemed innocent. I doubt if she'd dreamt him yet.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

My usual bed time was approximately four hours ago.

[*highlight]++ Shasta[/highlight*]

I'll explain more fully toMorrow, if required. Good night.

Votes Shasta with a promise for further explanation later.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

First, some comments on toDay. I'm not sure how much weight we can give to Sally's last words about Glirdy being a wolf. To me, at least, she seemed rather more like a wolf who knows she's going to die trying to make a mess before she goes. Looked at in that way, I don't think we should jump into conclusions based on anything she said - regardless of whether they are conclusions for or against Glirdy's guilt.

I think you are a bit off in this argument. At least as far as my werewolf-experience goes, few wolves actually put all their fellows in the "no opinion" -category - or any same category, for that matter. A wolf is almost always a tad paranoid, and wold prefer to avoid cramming all his fellows under the same heading just so as not to make all their names appear together. Besides, a bit of wolf-on-wolf suspicion - or even open wolf-on-wolf fraternizing - is actually safer for a wolf than just carefully not saying anything about one's fellows. And, in addition to that, I've never seen an Aganwolf not pulling off any kind of wolf-on-wolf thing.

Moving on to yesterDay next... (I also have a gigantic - well, sort of - post coming, I checked people's attitudes to Sally from the two previous Days!)

Doesn't think we can give much weight to Sally's Glirdy lynch drive, so probably didn't dream him. Also doesn't suspect Agan...I think maybe she did dream of Agan; she's been very solid in her support.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I thought I had already given one, and meant that if elaboration on it was required I would do that later. Basically, I voted for you because your vote from Day 1 looked strategically clean (voting for someone that has been somewhat suspected but hasn't gained any votes that far - not causing discord or attracting attention nor yet getting accused of bandwaggoning).
I'm sorry, I think I missed something. Could you explain what you mean by this?
That, I think, is a very dangerous path to take (wow, doesn't that sound epic!) because knowing that Lottie has our best interests at heart isn't saying anything about how accurate her suspicions are. Throughout WW history there have been innocents who bark at the wrong tree for an entire game though they have the village's best interests at heart.
I don't like this one, either. A wolf can very well make great contributions - a Nerwolf certainly can - and off-handedly dismissing the possibility makes it seem like you are grasping at straws to suspect whoever it was who talked about the great contributions. (I've lost the spot where I found this quote, should check that, probably...)

Now, off to write my Sally-post..

Elaborated on her Shasta-vote, but doesn't come down too hard on him, so she probably didn't dream him. Also doesn't like Zil's reasoning.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Explain myself about what? I'm confused. The quotes from yesterDay I picked during the Night phase when I was reading what happened after I went to sleep, I saved them on a Word file and of course wasn't bright enough to note who Inzil responded to.

Not much there.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Okay, here comes my massive Sally-post - being a quick analysis on people's reactions to Sally. This post doesn't include everything that has been said about Sally (no banter posts & no posts that give no actual information).

Nogrod

Carefully voices some suspicion on her yet flip-flops nicely. The three dots in the end creep me out, like the ”I never get her” in the beginning. He's kind of – how to say it – decisively undecisive. Looks rather wolf-on-wolf, though could be genuine.

Could go either way, really.


I don't like the look of this. Looks like an opportunistic wolf-on-wolf vote.

Nienna
Sally - I can usually read her pretty well and I'm not getting alarm bells yet... but we shall see (Nienna)
I'm not all that fond of the ”we shall see” in the end – it looks like trying not to look too positive about a fellow's innocence.


Makes me feel a bit better about Nienna. If I recall correctly, this was in a post of its own – and though not unheard of, bringing up a new point against a fellow in a one-liner post doesn't strike me as wolf-on-wolf suspicion.


I could see a Niennawolf behind this post, accusing Morsul after that first paragraph that could be interpreted as herself doing the exact same thing she blames Morsul of. But then again, I agree with her about Morsul and her tone still strikes me as genuine. (A sidenote: if Nienna and Morsul are fellows I'm going to eat my hat.)


Still innocentish tone.

Glirdan
Gah. The ”...yet” in the end looks again like trying not to sound too positive about a fellow's innocence.


Could well be a wolf turning against a fellow: he seems rather ready to jump on Sally after it's become clear that she's the clear main suspect of the Day. Could also be an innocent Glirdan trying to save his own skin by making a show of suspecting Sally – regardless of whether he actually did or not.
The same as the previous one, but to a greater extent.

Still looks like he's decided to suspect her. Could be wolf-on-wolf, could be desperate innocent-on-wolf.

Aganzir
A sensible point, could well have been by an innocent Agan, but the phrasing of the underlined part struck me as slightly fishy – it's too careful (maybe, a bit), not much like Agan's usual provocative style.


This, in turn, looks okay.

Could well be a wolf assuring that the death of a fellow would be okay while not enforcing the suspicion on her.

This strikes me as genuine innocent reasoning, though. Agan is driving me mad.

Legate
A long rant the point of which was mainly that he'll be keeping an eye on her. Makes me think a wolvish Leggy wouldn't have ranted such lengths about a fellow.

I don't like the ”But whatever...” in the end – looks like he's suspecting Sally and then dismissing it.
Could go either way, really.
This doesn't strike me as wolf-on-wolf reasoning at all.
Could be a furry Legate deciding that Sally is a lost case anyway. I'm leaning innocent on this quote, too, though. The tone is more like an innocent Legate deciding to ”see how things go”.

Lommy
This seems genuine enough.

Eurgh, could go either way – I'm leaning towards thinking this looks innocentish, but can't say.

Could be a Lommywolf flip-flopping on whether or not Sally's situation looks hopeless enough to justify a wolf-on-wolf vote.

Morsul
I'm not sure what to make of this. The underlined part sounds really as if he didn't particularly care about who his vote goes to. Normally that kind of behaviour points to a wolf, but on the other hand, a wolf would care about a fellow getting or not getting lynched. It wouldn't be all the same for a wolf whether his fellow is lynched or not, even if that wolf actually voted for that fellow. But then, this post could just as well be an opportunistic wolf voting for a doomed fellow without bothering to come up with arguments to back it up.

Super-confusing. I have no idea what to think about this. At all. Maybe leaning innocent – I don't think a furry Morsul would say this.

Nerwen
Not too fond of the tone of this one. If Sally had been innocent, I'd say this is awfully wolvish. With Sally being a wolf, I'm mainly confused.

Inzil
I don't like how Inzil takes one villager's list of suspects and picks his main suspect from there – the said main suspect being that of most of the village. Wolf-on-wolf? I could see it there, but not necessarily.

Winty

Really, this could go either way. Unless Glirdy was a wolf too, this wouldn't make sense as a wolfywolfy's post unless he was well-instructed during the Night or else followed the lead of one of his fellows during the Day. (Who? I might look into that at some point, it might be enlightening..) I'm talking, of course, about a newbie wolf debating on whether to vote for a fellow or an innocent.
Could be again waiting to get supplied with reasons during the Night. Eurgh. Don't know.

Shasta
Shasta defends Sally here, though only in a small matter. First impression: wolf!! Second impression: I'm not sure if a furry Shasta would defend a fellow who's the main suspect of the Day.

Brinn
Reasoned, unlike many of the Sally-suspecters of yesterDay. Doesn't look wolf-on-wolf.

So here we are. Based on this, I'd make the following list:

good:
Nienna
Legate
Winty
Brinn
leaning goood:
Lommy

confusing aargh:
Nerwen
Morsul
Agan

leaning bad:
Shasta
Inzil
bad:
Nogrod
Glirdan

Mira and Skip I had no quotes on - either because they didn't say anything about her at all, I've lost the quotes in my vast sea of quotes, or they didn't say anything about her that wasn't banter. Please, sweeties, fill me in on which is true.


EDIT: x-ed with 2x Lom & Skip, don't have time to read them, gotta dash, see you later, bye!

Actually, she might have dreamed wolf!Nog...it's beginning to look quite bad for him. I think she dreamed either Legate or Agan, though.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm back! First off, it seems I've made a mess again with the Inzil-quote-thing.Ok, that's cleared - I understood great to mean considerable of size/quantity/importance.
Yeah. It was partly that I misunderstood Inzil, partly that I didn't like the way he seemed to imply that making sense and being a wolf can't go together.
A probably irrelevant question: what does TLDR mean?
Ok, thanks, that cleared - though I'm not sure if I buy your point.
A technical point: getting a wolf lynched usually requires a bandwagon. Just saying. Of course, that isn't to say that I approve of Morsul's early, bandwaggonish vote. I don't.

Responding to random things; not much there to guess at dreams from.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'd prefer voting Glirdan or Nogrod toDay. Glirdan's death, as has been mentioned, would shed light to many things, and his interactions with Sally were very fishy. Nogrod's interactions with Sally looked bad too, and I don't like how he's been slipping under pretty much everyone's radar, being nice and invisible yet contributing. I could also vote Shasta or Inzil, but would prefer one of the earlier two.

Would want to vote for Glirdy (a wolf) or Nog (who she might have dreamed). Actually, the Nog-theory looks pretty convincing...which is a bit of a bummer, because I thought he was innocent.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Bed-time! I've been flip-flopping on whether to vote Nog or Glirdy, and decided to go for

[*highlight]++ Nogrod[/highlight*]

Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I find Nogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sally seemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me.

I won't be disappointed if Glirdy gets lynched. Unless he's an innocent, of course. That said, good night babes!


EDIT: x-ed with leggy-leggy-legz

Okay, it's looking very bad for Nog now, and she does make good points. My guess is (and I'm well aware that this is probably wrong and nothing to base *anything* on) that she dreamed either Agan or Legate, probably Agan, and Skip, and then Nog.

Pre-edit: I'm sure I've xed since Nerwen's first.

[Inziladun]

I was working on Greenie's Day 3, but it looks like Lottie beat me to it, and probably is more concise and sensible anyway.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Would want to vote for Glirdy (a wolf) or Nog (who she might have dreamed). Actually, the Nog-theory looks pretty convincing...which is a bit of a bummer, because I thought he was innocent.

I suspected Greenie for her vote on Nog, because it was so vaguely reasoned, and on someone who was not suspected by anyone else. Curiously, Nog himself disagreed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I would say I find Greenie quite innocentish. Her explanations on D1 felt quite honest and true and even if she has managed to fool me big time a few times I still have a gut feeling she's not a baddie. As Lommy said, she tends to suspect me everytime we play so I can't say her suspicion on me was that great a surprise (and actually I can't blame her for voting Shasta either). Also, as I said earlier, she tends to like being the individual-minded, "not going with the flow" player, so I would be more surprised if she started bandwagoning...

That seemed genuine to me at the time, but I suppose it could have been an attempt by a Nogwolf to distance himself from suspecting her. Then again, Nog would have to have known that her being killed after voting him would reflect badly on him. Would he have been unnerved enough by her vote of him to have taken that risk?

x/d with Morsul and Lottie

[Morsul the Dark]

Why'd I say it? because I'm psyched this is the furthest I've ever made it on the winning side in WW I said it more for myself...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Anyone notice that Morsul has talked more in the last half hour or so than he has all game long?

[Morsul the Dark]

I'm off tomorrow I can stay on all night yay!

[Brinniel]

It's late and I'm sleep deprived, so I probably will be saying very little for the time being.

I mentioned yesterDay that Glirdan's death could shed light on many things, and knowing he was a wolf, I think it'll be a very good idea to look at his and others' posts from earlier Days along with yesterDay's voting. With the votes....after losing one wolf, I would think the other two wouldn't be so ready to sacrifice another, so I would look at those who were hesitant and perhaps discouraging of the bandwagon. Of course, it'd also be very easy for a wolf to hide within that bandwagon, and I'm sure at least one is in there. Those who didn't vote until later when it was evident Glirdan was a lost cause would probably look the worst, but then again we must keep in mind time zones/availability which could make the timing of the votes not so valid.

Greenie's death is a surprise. Upon learning Glirdan's role, I was thinking she was looking rather suspicious after choosing to vote Nogrod over Glirdan...so I would imagine that there would be a pretty good reason why the wolves would feel the need to kill her. Though I suppose they could also just be messing with our heads and just ended up getting lucky.

Too late to say more or look at anything now, but I should have a fairly decent chunk of time to participate tomorrow.

[Nerwen]

Now, naturally we have no guarantee Greenie dreamt a wolf at all. However, since she stated suspicion of Nogrod yesterDay, and indeed voted him, and since Nogrod was starting to creep me out towards the end of yesterDay, I think he's worth looking at. Besides, he's been under my radar most of the game.

Nogrod, Day One

#33
Banter; is "uneasy" with Lottie:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

For the Duchess surely goes into that infamous mode of "no bad person, even insane one, would do that kind of a thing" - like screaming "Go wolves!" on D1...

Comments: This post follows Fea's unexplained vote on Lottie– perhaps opportunistic? The mention of Poison Ivy-Nerwolf also seems perhaps a trifle insidious– like it's trying to create guilt-by-association. To be fair, though, the "Arkham Asylum" game must still be fresh in peoples minds, and Nogrod wasn't the only one to claim to find Lottie's songs questionable at this point– Zil and Nienna did too. (Fea, presumeably, didn't.)


#60
Ask for real names to be used; finds a post of Shasta's (not indicated) "unreadable"; says that Agan's comment about the Seer not being 100% reliable (because of the Cursed) is not helpful so early in the game and that she seems overly worried about her image.

–Jumps on Zil for saying wintywinty's vote should be scrutinized, finding it a typically wolfish statement.

–Dismisses Lottie's explanation that she wrote the songs before getting her role:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It's not so much about when you wrote that piece of ambiguity, but what was your role when you decided it was a good way to start posting?

#85
Dismisses Zil's explanation for his use of "scrutiny", elaborates on why it's so suspicious– apparently because the vote cannot in itself reveal ww's role.

Comments: This is complete hair-splitting, and is in fact quite a weird reason to go after someone. As I said yesterDay (or the Day before, I forget) it could be a language-problem– i.e. Nogrod taking things too literally.


#99
Discusses rules and the retraction-issue, is perturbed by Lottie-wagon, though at the same time he does not find her at all innocent-looking.

Comments: Hmmn. Seems like he wants it both ways...


#108
Compares the people voting for Lottie (Fea, Lommy and Greenie at that point) to the retraction-dumpers (Sally and Aganzir), and wonders if it's just herd-mentality or something more.

Comments: Looking for reasons to suspect as many people as possible? Perhaps– mind you, both of those affairs were worth commenting on. He does exaggerate, saying "a band" of people had used their retrackies when only two had.


#115
Quotes Inzil's latest defence, but appears not to accept it... though he also says the affair is "running out of proportion". Says he now has an opinion on Zil, but does not state it.

Comments: Uh... *scratches head* Really, I don't know what to make of that post at all. What is he trying to say?


#119. Tells Skip how to highlight votes.


#128
Suspicion list. With the exception of Izzy (trusted) and Skip ("making a lot of sense") is non-committal about everyone. Now also concerned about the save-Lottie-wagon.

Comments: Okaay. This post is quite wolfy-looking– Nog's at pains to leave himself room either to suspect or not suspect virtually the entire village. Yes, it was Day One, but still...


#137
Suggests Fea and Lottie may be a cobbler and wolf testing each other out. Votes Fea (Fea 2), because though he suspects them both, he suspects her more.

Comments: *shrugs* Perfectly reasonable vote-post. Nothing to say about it.

General Remarks: Well, while #128 is the only single post I'd call definitely furry-looking, from Nog's overall Day One posting I shouldn't be that *surprised* if he turns out a wolf. I won't put it stronger than that– later Days may give a different picture. Also, I haven't yet looked at what the known wolves said about him– as I recall, not much.

I have to go now, but when I come back I'll look at Nogrod on Days 2 and 3 and at Sallywolf and Glirwolf's relations with him, if no-one has in the meantime.

EDIT:X'd with a host.

[Loslote]

One more thing I just realized with Morsul:

He keeps proclaiming that he's successfully voted for two wolves in two consecutive Days. Okay. That's lovely.

How, exactly, would you know who to vote? You don't post anything to tell us. We are left to assume you know this because you are part of the pack. So maybe you don't want to emphasize that quite as much as you are. Just sayin'.

[wintywinty]

Hello all, I just wanted to apologize for missing all of yesterday and not being able to vote, as I was extremely busy, and I did not have the opportunity to reach a computer. I will vote today, and hopefully contribute to the discussion more.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so first, the Seer thing is pretty unfortunate especially at the time like this, as I would have expected this Day to be a really good one for a Seer to reveal (if he had something interesting to say), as that's been quite a long time no Seer around (usually, on Day 2 or 3 at most somebody appears claiming to be a Seer. And especially in this game I was quite happy at the prospect of it happening today, as if such a Seer was an impostor, he'd basically sacrifice himself, with such a low amount of Wolves remaining). Well, okay, but on the positive note, we still have lynched a Wolf yesterDay and now we can look for all the possible evidence related to voting bandwaggons etc.

Greenie kill first, though, I don't know if we can assume that the Wolves expected anything from her, on the other hand, she was suspected quite well too, so maybe there had to be a reason to kill her other than a no-trace kill. On the third hand again, most importantly I think we should try to think of Greenie's death in the light of the fact that there are two Wolves who just lost two of their packmates consequently in two Days, have no Cobbler, and it's quite possible some of them are suspected considerably. Now when we look back at the previous Night's kill, it's quite easy to see why a no-trace kill was chosen, they had to just hope that Glirdan will be forgotten next Day and so probably did not want to make any move which could either confirm it or look like a bluff. This time, maybe they wanted to cover the track completely - possibility A - but let's not rule out possibility B, that they wanted to stir thoughts in the village in order to produce new suspects out of the village's own initiative (thus having their hands clean in bringing them up), and that might be for instance framing Nogrod - or Lottie, for that matter, who still hasn't been targeted (but that thing just wouldn't work because there's been no counterevidence for her being the Shiriff, so it does not make sense for anyone to disbelieve her). For that matter, I think framing Nogrod is a possibility, even though I am not saying some of the things - as noted by Nerwen, like that "free to suspect anyone" post on Day 1 - could not point to his guilt.

There was something I wanted to say in regards to Lottie - oh yes, this. Just to note, I think the Wolves might be keeping her around partially also because of the fact that she seems to raise suspicion for lot of people, and especially if it's wrong, they might be thinking that she might serve to make some confusion in the village (influence other people with wrong assumptions etc.) However, of course, if they suspected Greenie was the Seer, then it is perfectly explainable why they didn't target Lottie even though she's a known innocent (and thus at least a hindrance in the voting process as the village's numbers get thinner). If there was anything that could lead the Wolves to think that way, it would be at most that Greenie's remark "you are no Seer", or something, which in the context was maybe a bit out-of-the-blue, but not necessarily sticking out so much (however, now on the other hand, thinking about it, I think I have sort of noticed it back then when she was saying it, even though I didn't pay attention to it - but then it might be likely that if some Wolf was intentionally looking for Seer hints, he might have noticed it. So maybe it raises the probability of the Wolves actually knowing whom they are killing?). Or then we are back again at the possibility of a paranoid Wolfgrod killing her because there was simply no other way. But all in all it really depends on whether the WWs suspected she was the Seer or not.

As for Greenie's dreams, I really am not able to collect any definitely proven hints. It is also possible, however, that she has dreamed of some of the people who have died, which might happen. What she says about Nogrod does not seem to me necessarily like dreaming about him - and I have at least seen that she really tends to suspect him in many games (and he suspects her - which didn't happen that much here, but that does not say anything, it would've been more telling if it was the other way around). I think Greenie was in general rather careful in announcing what she possibly knew about people, which in this way is a pity, but what can we do.

Otherwise, I would join what's been said here:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I do have an addendum, though. I think Agan was dreamed, but I don't think it was until Day 2. This might be slightly meta (and if so, feel free to smack me) but I think Skip is new enough that Greenie might have waited to see if he was readable before dreaming him.

That makes sense in comparison to what I have read and I can very well imagine Greenie dreaming of Skip on Day 1. That sounds actually the most plausible of all things I can think of, given that she was also absolutely happy to see him playing etc, so I assume she could have dreamed him.

I guess that's it. But otherwise:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I mentioned yesterDay that Glirdan's death could shed light on many things, and knowing he was a wolf, I think it'll be a very good idea to look at his and others' posts from earlier Days along with yesterDay's voting. With the votes....after losing one wolf, I would think the other two wouldn't be so ready to sacrifice another, so I would look at those who were hesitant and perhaps discouraging of the bandwagon. Of course, it'd also be very easy for a wolf to hide within that bandwagon, and I'm sure at least one is in there. Those who didn't vote until later when it was evident Glirdan was a lost cause would probably look the worst, but then again we must keep in mind time zones/availability which could make the timing of the votes not so valid.

Very good "methodical" thoughts, so to say, and that said, off to re-check some of my theories in the light of Glirdan's death, and also re-check yesterDay's voting. Will be back in a while with a few comments to the current situation.

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Originally Posted by Legate

Now, if you are innocent, Nog, you would not resign and try to find some suspect. You are not doing anything.

I'm doing all the time... sorry about the rhetorics, but the way Agan and Lommy seem to have deaf ears to anything I say kind of discourages me to sneak hours from my sleeping time. I mean if no one listens why bother?

But anyway. here's something to begin with...


Some thoughts along this Day (a work in progress - has been that for an hour or so)


I'm honestly quite baffled with this: a hilarious 10-year old or an inexperienced wolf trying to look good... or just Morsul?

Originally Posted by Morsul

I was shocked by the pick if I do say so myself not to toot my own horn I was sure I was going to be the victem to days in a row with the right vote... That NEVER happens for me(I'm excited) keep it alive folks!

Okay, I see I'm not the only one.

Originally Posted by Loslote

One more thing I just realized with Morsul:

He keeps proclaiming that he's successfully voted for two wolves in two consecutive Days. Okay. That's lovely.

Indeed. And he has done that relatively early as well, if my memory serves me right (not going to go back and find them). So that could be something pre-planned indeed. Or "just Morsul". The trouble is, can we afford not to check him?


On the issue of interpreting Greenie's dreams.

Someone - Lommy at least (with reservations) and I feel there was someone else as well - came over with an idea that Greenie might have dreamt of Agan and found her innocent? Well let's look at her actual posting on Agan (thank's for the quotes Lottie). This was actually the thing that made me question the knowledge we could gain from such a cryptic seer as Greenie was in the first place (the thing Lommy thought incriminated me... well you can pass your verdict with these quotes).

Originally Posted by Greenie D1

Agan is lovely and provides a lot of substance (I'd raise my hat if I had one, unfortunately I only wear a helmet), I don't suspect her - but then, I always suspect her when she's innocent, so maybe she's a wolf now. Gah, I'm flip-flopping. Family vice. Sorry.

Originally Posted by Greenie D2

Agan – Seems genuine and makes a lot of sense. I'm not saying she's innocent - I know how capable she is of fooling me - but I won't be voting her without a good reason.

Originally Posted by Greenie D3

At least as far as my werewolf-experience goes, few wolves actually put all their fellows in the "no opinion" -category - or any same category, for that matter. A wolf is almost always a tad paranoid, and wold prefer to avoid cramming all his fellows under the same heading just so as not to make all their names appear together. Besides, a bit of wolf-on-wolf suspicion - or even open wolf-on-wolf fraternizing - is actually safer for a wolf than just carefully not saying anything about one's fellows. And, in addition to that, I've never seen an Aganwolf not pulling off any kind of wolf-on-wolf thing.

Originally Posted by Greenie D3

Aganzir
A sensible point, could well have been by an innocent Agan, but the phrasing of the underlined part struck me as slightly fishy – it's too careful (maybe, a bit), not much like Agan's usual provocative style.


This, in turn, looks okay.

Could well be a wolf assuring that the death of a fellow would be okay while not enforcing the suspicion on her.

This strikes me as genuine innocent reasoning, though. Agan is driving me mad.

Does this seem to anyone as a seer talking of an innocent - and leaving the hints for the posterity so that they would not lynch an innocent if she happens to die?

Heh, going forwards the thread I find this:

Originally Posted by Shasta

I think Agan was dreamed, but I don't think it was until Day 2.

Now why Shasta? You have the quotes here. Let's hear your argument behind you thinking Agan innocent? I might actually think you and Agan are in cahoots and you just rushed to try and confirm something someone else had suggested. But really. That was not an honest comment in any way. Looking at the facts (the quotes above) and what you say just don't fit.

Okay, a break now...

Originally Posted by Legate

hats off (to Roy Harper)

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm doing all the time... sorry about the rhetorics, but the way Agan and Lommy seem to have deaf ears to anything I say kind of discourages me to sneak hours from my sleeping time. I mean if no one listens why bother?

Well but that makes two people out of a dozen.

Good point about Agan, though, I never felt the dreams listed by Lommy made that much sense - or not in the way she posted them, anyway, it played little role. Personally I think one of them was skip, maybe even the first one, and then perhaps even somebody dead, and then depending... a Wolf Nogrod, or something totally different. Well, I sort of spoke about this in the beginning of the Day. It certainly would help a lot to have Greenie revived, but well, we have to do without that at least for now.

And now, to something completely different.

A list. (For those who know Bob, that was supposed to be said in his voice.)

SUSPECTING

Nogrod - mostly this possibility of Greenie kill...
Inzil - see a long time ago, in a Galaxy...

CURIOUS ABOUT

Mira - no idea at all
Shasta - something similar, a bit worried by some points raised against him, but I haven't really made any of my own observations with definite focus on him.

INNOCENTISH WITH THE PARANOID FEELING THAT THEY MIGHT BE WOLVES FOOLING ME (in the order from the topmost - the most paranoid about - to the lowest, the least paranoid about)
Aganzir - that paranoia does not need to be explained, I believe. Also, she is just sort of faring too good. Eurgh.
Nerwen - well... she looks okay, but it's just similar case as Agan, you can't really know with her
Morsul - see my post above
skip - see also my post above
Lommy - is in this cathegory only because her crusade against Nogrod is a bit too much of a crusade, on the other hand, a Wolf would not be so zealous, in my opinion - that would mean basically signing one's own death penalty. Actually, that might almost move her into the next cathegory. Really. Well but then, I could do the same also for Morsul and Skip, as I am really not *that* paranoid about them. Well, and maybe Nerwen. Okay, that leaves Agan. Well, what a surprise Nah, it's not just about paranoia, it's just sort of that I am not THAT inclined to consider them as "clean". But maybe really I should move Lommy down there. Okay, enough of this rant

INNOCENTISH WITHOUT AS MUCH OF A PARANOID FEELING
Wintywinty - looks a lot better now, though not posting much
Brinniel - speaks lots of sense lately
Nienna - generally think innocent, early comments about the WWs

INNOCENT
Loslote

In general, if I had to bet, I would say - or hope - that both of the Wolves are among the four topmost.

EDIT: x-ed with two Shastas

[wilwarin538]

Votes so far:

Morsul -> Shasta
Agan -> Nogrod
Lommy -> Nogrod (2)
Skip -> Shasta (2)

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Mira

.
Darling, I'm a girl. You know this.

I was talking about Glirdan, as I had been for the entire paragraph. Rereading it, I realise it doesn't sound all that clear...sorry about that.

Some thoughts:

Innocentish:

winty- He still looks like a newbie innocent to me, plus Glirdan's growing suspicion of him doesn't look wolf-on-wolf and more likely preparing for an easy lynch.

Aganzir- On the lower end of this section, but some her actions in the game don't measure up to how I imagine she'd play as a wolf.

Legate- While his opinions on a Glirdan lynch are wishy-washy, the fact that Glirdan listed him and Sally as suspicious makes me think he's more likely innocent. I just can't see a wolf grouping two packmates as suspicious.

Morsul- Logic would tell us he's innocent based on the voting, but logic isn't always the best thing to follow. If he is a wolf, that'd be an interesting strategy to take and it's always possible. Yet I do find him more likely innocent because of his behaviour. While I don't care much for his overreacting and overconfidence (boasting how he's voted two wolves), I think that may be just part of his playing style and so it just doesn't seem that suspicious to me.

Nienna- Her posts have so far felt genuine and I can't imagine her suspicion of Glirdan being wolf-on-wolf.

No idea:

Mira- I might be slightly leaning innocent, but I'm still really not sure.

Inziladun- I really don't know and it's probably something I should look into.

Shasta- While it's possible Glirdan's vote for him could be wolf-on-wolf, I somehow think it less likely. But he doesn't mention Shasta again, and maybe that dropped suspicion could indicate wolf-on-wolf. I don't know.

Lommy- She was awfully eager to lynch Glirdan yesterDay, but is it possible this eagerness could be a cover up? Maybe. Though I'm leaning slightly towards innocent, I'm still not sure enough to place her in the innocentish category.

Possibly wolfish:

Nerwen- Glirdan showed a very slight suspicion of her and then backed away. She also seemed to me not very big on the lynch Glirdan idea, but then eventually gave in. Suspicious, but perhaps on the lower end.

Wolfish:

Nogrod- I have to say, Glirdan's comment on him looks very wolf-on-wolf. Let me post it again:

For some reason I never suspect this guy....Maybe it's just because he always comes across as the level-headed one among us (which is saying something this time around ) or maybe it's just a charm he has....Although his vote for Fea has me a little worried. Voting for her simply for initiating the voting for Lottie? What reason is that? The bandwagon for Lottie (at least the voting anyway) did not start until well AFTER she had voted.....Hmmm....

Glirdan said that on Day 1 and then didn't mention Nogrod again. With lynching Glirdan, he didn't really seem to side with one way or the other. He did vote Glirdan, but by then the bandwagon looked comfortable enough to hide in. And then there's of course the fact that our seer voted him yesterDay, a throwaway rather than choosing the obvious lynch.

I would've posted Sally's comments on other people and then analysed it, but I ran out of time. I won't be able to do it tonight, but perhaps I can jump on that task toMorrow and get some better clues about other players, along with posts from toDay.

EDIT: X-ed with Inziladun

[Brinniel]

Okay, I'm supposed to be doing schoolwork now, so in order to prevent distracting myself, I'm voting now. There's really no need for me to hold off anyway since I've already made my decision:

++Nogrod

So far we're on a streak lynching a cobbler and two wolves in three Days. No innocent has yet to be lynched. I'm hoping to keep it that way. Honestly, it would really surprise me if Nogrod does turn out innocent...there's just so many reasons that point to his guilt.