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#1 |
Fluttering Enchantment
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What happened to Hunter?
![]() So I have to go off to Church, I'm just popping on really quick. Once I get back I'll have the whole afternoon to read back through everything again and hopefully my list will be epic. Sally dear, you won't have it by mid day though, maybe closer to 65% into the day. ![]() I also have a staff party to go to tonight so I'll be gone for a good chunk of time, and then come back again, probably just in time to vote.
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#2 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Okay. Back to read. Starting from yesterDay from when I left.
Sorry. My days (RL) have been "wake up early, head to work, go non-stop 12-14 hours, come home 10-11PM..." So I haven't actually been able to spend too much with this game. But I should have some time toDay... well, into reading first. But I'll be around if anyone wishes to discuss this or that.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#3 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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![]() Okay. I'll answer Sally's (mis)analysis first and then start looking for the wolves.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#4 | |||||||||||||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Triple-posting... sadly
For D1 (bolding mine)
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We all know that it is easier to suspect someone who says a lot (not just banters but really says something). That's the sad fate of our active players who try to contribute on D1 - so I will stand beside anyone who contributes and wish to do away with slackers on D1, unless there is a strong suspicion and yadayadayada. So what is that "buttering up" thing there? I just don't get it. I said they are "doing something" eg. contributing, trying to get some discussion rolling, making points, not just hunkering down, not just trying to be as uncontroversial as possible... that's what I think everyone should do already on D1! I don't think any one of them was active "just to butter me up". That would be preposterous indeed. Quote:
If I wouldn't believe that you're the seer Sally, I would be really suspicious of your twisting of my words. Quote:
For D2 Quote:
Had you not made that list I wouldn't have said that, or had I been able to stay up for the rest of the Day... Quote:
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![]() But to be honest, I had no time. I had to pick something that to me looked suspicious and try to see whether there was anything in there that would comfirm my suspicions or not. With alona there really was - and is. I really don't understand why you people don't see it. What she said to Rikae is unthinkable from an innocent mouth. None of us innocents knows anyone of the others to be on our side so we just can't "slip" that kind of thought as it is not a possible thought - at least early on D2 regarding someone who had posted like four posts or something. If you don't actually know someone to be on your side you just can't "accidentally" say "it's great we're on the same side this time"!!! But if you're a wolf who needs to deceive you could in theory make a major slip like that. It is quite odd a wolf would be that thoughtless, but it would be even more implausible for an innocent to say that! ![]()
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#5 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Yes Nog, and now that I see that I still have no idea about anyone.
Ok I have to vote now because I'm making no promises about even being here for deadline. There's some rain in the forecast and I'm not taking chances. We had three people, I believe, who didn't vote yesterDay. So I'm not voting Sally. Mostly because I'm inclined to believe her. I'm not voting Nog because if he is innocent he could sniff out a wolf. And we have to get a wolf toDay, unless the Ranger was daring last Night. Because we will be equal toMorrow. So that leaves Alona, Inzil, Izzy, Shasta, and Wilwa as possible votes. Not voting Alona because I still think she's playing way to loud to be a wolf. Her wolf style is quiet and on the sidelines. Wilwa was on Sally's no vote list yesterDay and I have nothing really on her so I'm not really ok with voting for her. And that leaves Inzil, Izzy, and Shasta. I have no idea. Do I believe what I've been told? Well, I'm left with three. And there are three wolves. Which means odds are that one of them is a wolf. I know Shasta is busy but he could also just be flying under the radar. It could happen. And out of all of them, I think I'm going to go with Shasta. ++Shasta And this time I do want to vote him.
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Choose treachery, its more fun!
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#6 | |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Sounds reasonable to me. Depending on what Sally has to say later, I could well follow suit. And you're right, of course. If an innocent is lynched toDay, it's very likely going to be a wolf win. As it is now, the ratio of innocents to wolves stands at 5:3. If an innocent goes toDay, it'll be 4:3 toNight, and all they'll need is one more kill.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#7 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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![]() And I look forward to seeing your epic list! And don't worry if it's not here by mid-Day (which it obviously isn't lol) because I slept late so I think I'll be at least somewhat conscious for the rest of the Day. Yay lists! ![]() And Nog, you do have to agree that you've gone after Alona a lot, though I'll say in apology that I should have stated you went mostly after her. You have though; for the most part, you've accused someone then just gone back to Alona. But if I was 100% convinced you were a wolf I'd have voted you already, so for now let's just consider you on the 'possibly dangerous' list. Which is always where you belong anyway. ![]() For everyone else. Remember what I said about going all half-cocked? I mean it's fine for now, but I don't want things to go downhill later and end up swinging the ranger's direction. Which reminds me. A list of my own. (Keep in mind this is how I would feel regardless of my dreams, so please don't accept it as pure canon.) Possibly guilty: Nog (too quiet, and when he is he doesn't seem to be ordo!Nog) Izzy (too quiet and too like Nog, which worries me. Also, she's too far off everyone's radar and I never like that.) Not sure, but could go either way: Lari (while Alona thinks she's probably innocent, I'm not entirely convinced. She looks a bit too calculated for my taste.) Dun (just because of a few things he's said, which I hope to point out when/if I get to my analysis of him) Wilwa (again, has said some things I'm not too comfortable with, although her concern for my lost computer is touching) Shasta (because a wolf!Shasta would be more active even if he did have a show. Of course he could be laying low specifically for that reason, so dunno.) Probably innocent: Alona (because she's been helpful to the point of beyond helpful and I'm not getting any sort of wolf vibe from her, which would normally be worrying but I can read her fairly well so I place her here) In her own little guilt-free world: Sally. Because I'm ever so cute and cuddly. ^_^ ETA: x'd since Lari's vote. And Wilwa can come here and collect her hug.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#8 | |
Wight
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And let's be honest, I'm not a good enough player to escape the Seer's notice, convince both her and other players I'm innocent and rack up so much suspicion against you in the process. Unless this whole thing is ordo-on-ordo and I really am that clumsy. This is only my third online WW game, I'm still learning. And I still make slips like the one I made when referring to Rikae, though I didn't think of it as a slip at the time. Obviously. I'll say this, too, if I were a wolf this game, Lari would have been the first Night kill, end of story. Side note: I'm probably taking this more personal than normal, but that's mainly due to RL. I'm not exactly in my best frame of mind at the moment. Probably shouldn't even be playing, but it's a great escape and I need one of those right now.
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"Puddle! Puddle! Oh, snow! Future puddle!" |
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#9 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Here's the votes from D1 & D2. Known innocents are bolded.
(EDIT: the X in front of Izzy & Lari are the "wrong deadline votes) D1 Nog -> alona wilwa -> Sally Lottie -> Inzil Rikae -> Glirdy Inzil -> Lottie X Izzy -> Shasta X Lari -> Shasta2 Morsul -> Glirdy2 (Lari -- Shasta? = not valid) Glirdy -> Morsul alona -> Morsul2 Shasta -> Morsul3 hunter reveal Glirdan target Sally -> Shasta3 flip coin: Morsul dies -> Glirdy dies D2 Nog -> alona Lari -> Lottie - .10 wilwa -> Shasta - .04 Inzil -> Lottie2 - .02 Lottie -> alona2 - .02 Rikae -> Nog - .01 Izzy -> wilwa Did not vote: alona, Sally, Shasta Seemingly a flip of coin once again? -> Lottie dies Interestingly the three who didn't vote on D2 were the first to post toDay...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... Last edited by Nogrod; 01-17-2010 at 01:26 PM. |
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#10 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Let's also see the pairs... (known innocents bolded)
Sally/Glirdan Shasta/Alona Morsul/Wilwa Rikae/Izzy Nog/Lottie Dun/Lari Looking at it now and not believeing there is a wolf-wolf PM-pair (well, there might be, but I'd think it less probable than every wolf being given as a PM-pal to an innocent) the situation would mean there were three pairs of innocents to begin with and three which had a wolf in them. Now we can say that Sally / Glirdy was one of the pairings of innocents - and I know me and Lottie was another. To you the pair, me / Lottie is an unknown of course – but I know now that both of the other two pairs with a dead innocent in them can not be innocent! To put it plainly: either wilwa or Izzy is a wolf – or they both are. Unless there is a wolf-wolf PM-pair of course. My problem is that the more I look at it, the less innocent-looking people I see round… Although I have to say alona’s latest defence felt genuine. I’m torn with her right now: my reason says she must be a wolf but my feelings are confused and willing to believe her. Now what is the part played here by several people saying she’s like that / believing she could actually make such an odd comment, and what is their alignment in the game? I’ll try to add things up a bit… in a moment. (needs to see first what has happened meanwhile as I see post being made)
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#11 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Looking at the votes again...
Johnny 99 - Nogrod alona (unknown) x 2 first vote of the Day City Dude - Inziladun Lottie (innocent) early vote Lottie (innocent) putting her into lead over Shasta (unknown) & alona (unknown) Gypsy Biker - Shasta (hunter) putting him in front of Glirdy (innocent) no vote on D2 Bad Scooter - Isabellkya Shasta (unknown) hasty erred dl-vote Wilwa (unknown) last minute throw-away vote Crazy Janey - Alonariel Morsul (hunter) ties him with Glirdan (innocent) no vote on D2 Boardwalk Sandy - Sally Shasta (unknown) forced to tie him with Glirdy (a known innocent to her) no vote on D2 Jersey Girl - Wilwarin Sally (seer) an early vote Shasta (unknown) first vote for him before the last minute rush (only two votes had been given before) Wendy - Lariren Shasta (unknown) putting him into lead at the last minute - wrong dl. (tried to retract) Lottie (innocent) early first vote Some thoughts to follow - and hopefully in the end trying to add up all the statistics I've tried to gather.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#12 | ||
Wight
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Borrowing from Nog here to try and work things out.
Sally/Glirdan - gifted/innocent Shasta/Alona - unknown/innocent (yeah, I know, no hard proof yet) Morsul/Wilwa - hunter/unknown Rikae/Izzy - innocent/unknown Nog/Lottie - unknown/innocent Dun/Lari - unknown/unknownprobablyinnocent Assuming there's no wolf-wolf pairs here. If there is already a known gifted/innocent pair, it's probable that the Hunter and/or Ranger were paired up with innocents, too. That would leave 6 others - three wolves and three innocents. So no wolf-wolf pairs with this line of thinking. This also means Wilwa is most likely innocent and that whoever is paired with the Ranger might be innocent, too. Now for the wolf-innocent pairs. That leaves Shasta, Izzy, Nog and Dun (or Lari) as a wolf. Ugh that's five people. Well, to narrow it down, if we go along with Sally referring to the Ranger as a she, that rules out Izzy, as she and Rikae could be the third gifted/innocent pair. It also rules out Lari and Dun, as they could also be the third gifted/innocent pair. So that leaves Shasta and Nog. While I'm tempted to lean more against Shasta than Nog now that he's tried to broaden his suspicions, he is going after Wilwa who I mostly trust to be innocent and now Lari who I'm 99.9% sure is innocent. If the Ranger is a he and Sally was just using wordplay, then that rules out Shasta/me, Nog/Lottie and Dun/Lari, leaving Izzy as a wolf paired with known innocent Rikae. So, conclusion: I might vote either Shasta or Nog. I probably won't vote Wilwa, Lari and certainly not Sally. Quote:
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"Puddle! Puddle! Oh, snow! Future puddle!" Last edited by alonariel; 01-17-2010 at 04:14 PM. Reason: X'd with Sally and Wilwa and bolding |
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#13 | |||||||||
Fluttering Enchantment
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So I re-read from the beginning and quoted a bunch of stuff and here they are with my random thoughts, and then a list:
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Sally: I don't think the Ranger needs to hint to you whether they protected you or not, too risky for him, cause he needs to stay alive as long as possible so he can protect you as long as possible. Oh, and if you didn't dream a wolf last Night then I'm gonna vote for whoever you vote for anyway, cause with our numbers dwindling I don't want to risk a last minute bandwaggon that kills our Ranger, cause then you're definitely dead toNight. List? Ok then... Nogrod: not too too much from him, but what I have seen I've agreed with or at least understood his logica and I don't see anything wrong with him Alona: I want to trust her, and there's something nagging at the back of my head that is making me want to trust her, but there's also a lot of stuff that she's said that just urks me the wrong way (see above). So I'm on the fence here, it's like my half of me sees the logic that she could be guilty, then another half is like "no no, she's good, trust your gut"...so yeah, I don't know Lari: uhm, kinda under my radar, but nothing stood out so I'm good here for now Izzy: so yesterday she said something like she didn't get my whole Shasta deal, so I asked what she meant by that, and all she did was quote what I had said, she didn't really say what she found wrong with it, and then voted for me cause I didn't explain my reasoning (when I couldn't explain, since she never really told me what needed explaining)....so I don't like that, the vote itself I get, cause Shasta was a kinda rushed flimsy thing from me, but just that one part bugs me...I don't however have anything else against her at the moment, so this is not enough to go on, off this alone I would not vote for her Inzil: ahh, my dear ex-lover, I'm really starting to suspect him. His comment that I quoted earlier was odd, and he at one point said I was "fixated" on the revealing lovers thing, when I actually had just made an off handed joking (only Lottie seems to pick up on the joking part) suggestion, and then others took it serious and actually followed through, so I wouldn't say I was fixated. Anyway....yeah, a few things here in there, I'll try to take a closer look later. Shasta: Yes, I voted him yesterDay, yes the reasons were flimsy, and no I don't really have anything new to add about him right now. Hmm. Need a break, the whole read through took me like an hour. Be back later. x'ed with a few people
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#14 | ||||
Wight
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I think Izzy asked about this, too. Basically I saw Inzil's post saying that Sally was the Night target, went with it at the beginning of the Day and then later started to question it while I was talking with Lari about it. My debate with Lottie went well into the early morning for me and I don't think I was thinking quite clearly at the time.
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"Puddle! Puddle! Oh, snow! Future puddle!" |
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#15 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Bloody interwebs.
Anyway I'm gonna take a look at Lari now. Back soon-ish. ![]()
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#16 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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Was reading while my lunch cooked. Few comments.
Wilwa, I'd asked about the Shasta/Sally thing earlier on Day two, and had gotten no response about it. A specific quote # will have to wait until I come back. While I was reading Sally's rundown of Nog, sorry - but I couldn't help but laugh a little. It just seems so fabricated, and.. over the top flimsy to me. Hindsight tends to be 20/20... but condemning someone with it, is just... o.O Okay, back in a bit after lunch. X'd with Sally.
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But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.
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#17 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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So you kept talking with Lari a lot and she got you to suspect Sally's reveal? But wait... you're not PM-pals! I'm not sure what to say. I mean this game should be played online in front of everyone, not privately somewhere outside the range of other ears. Anyway it is interesting as well that wilwa wants to push after you for that if Lari had helped you to distrust Sally's reveal in a situation where it was more or less obvious...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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