Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, first, let me sum up the Gifted nonsenses so that I may get this over with from my part.

Morsul I would believe is indeed an agent, Pitch is still most likely a real Dreamer, and as for the Priest, hard to say. I guess we should indeed let this sort out by itself, like Roa said.

1. No reason to lynch Morsul, as I'd think he's an Agent, and there is no reason whatsoever to lynch the Agent. (However, I sympathise with Crayon's vote, as I can see the point. Though not that I encourage such behavior in general.)

2. With the Rangers, we do more harm with lynching one than with letting them be, as if one of them is a real one and one a Wolf, then most likely it's the problem for the WWs, and they will kill the real Ranger one Night. It's really nonsense for the WWs to keep the real Ranger alive, at least by the end, when there are some six people remaining, if such a pair of them was still alive, then it'll be really easy to catch a Wolf then. Aside from that, Ranger can wreak havoc upon the WWs by protecting people, the longer he survives, the bigger his chances are. So I really say we leave these two be as well. (As for whom of them I believe more, I have some reasons for each, in short as for Hakon, I mostly said my feelings before when he revealed, only to note also I wonder that he used the word "ranger" and not "priest" to label himself, though whatever. Wilwa, in some ways it would make more sense, I could imagine her reacting like that if she was true Ranger, on the other hand... well, actually honestly, her revelation does not make much sense for me, even if she was a Ranger and even if she was a Wolf, but it could be pretty irrational, especially if she is true Ranger and sees Hakon's claim. But like I said, let's leave it be for now.)

That means, let's focus on others. I do not, alas, have much time to do anything now, but first, a few random remarks of what I noted while reading the thread. Later I hope to post something more yet.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Theoretically, Pitch could be a wolf, and his giving up SPM a plot to ensure his being thought innocent the rest of the game.
However, if Pitch survives beyond Day 3 or so, I would have to assume he was a wolf and go for him. Everyone knows that a revealed Seer is a dead Seer. It's only a matter of time. If he wasn't killed by the wolves after the oportunities for the Priest to protect him ran out, we'd have his number.
I do appreciate your giving me the all-clear though, as I am indeed innocent.

Okay, this is making me slightly uneasy, especially considering that Morsul indeed must be a fake. It looks like jumping on whatever train rides by, and maybe trying if there is a chance to get rid of the real Seer. On the other hand, perhaps it'd be slightly too uncautious from a wolf.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

As for the seers, well the wolves would be really foolish to leave the real seer alive to continue dreaming. Which means that every day Morsul and Pitch are still alive, the should post their dreams. If either finds a wolf, we lynch the "wolf." If it's a real wolf, hooray, we killed a real wolf. If not we know who the liar is. If it's an innocent, well, when the real seer dies we will have a list of known innocents.

Logically, one of the seers is the Agent and one of the rangers is a wolf.

Everyone else, I highly doubt there is more than one wolf in the mix. Definitely the agent, a wolf, and two gifteds. Which mean that there is still a wolf out there. Let's let this mess sort it out, because it will, and move on to finding the other wolf hiding in all of this chaos.

Roa looks good to me, and I agree with the elaboration of hers above which I quote.

By the way, and this was asked before, maybe we should ask McCabber Himself, how many WWs are around, then? There is nothing on the Admin thread about it, and the first narration says something about "four paws", though that is by no means anything official.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Wow my memory is that bad huh? I'm so caught up in Pitchwife's claim I'm forgetting who's innocent... Well I hope a slip of memory doesn't make everyone make the wrong choice about the real seer

(I marked this post to quote while I was still reading the thread... well, hilarious, obviously )

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Please, people. If you are wrong about the person you think is a wolf, then you are killing a gifted, which plays right into the wolves hands. There is only a 1/4 chance of getting the right person, and 1/2 chance of killing a gifted. Are you really going to risk killing a gifted on odds like that? We need the ranger alive and we need the seer alive.

That mess will definitely sort itself out. Just leave it be for now and don't risk our gifted on something you can't be sure of.

Agreed, and just repeating it to prove the point.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree that we should leave them be. If Wilwa is the seer, then the wolves can kill Pitchie. But then we know that Hakon's a wolf, and we can lynch him. If Hakon's the seer, then they can't kill Pitchie toNight. But if Pitchie doesn't die, it doesn't prove that Hakon's the ranger, it just gives a bit more legitimacy to his claim. Therefore, we only know for sure who's the ranger if Pitchie dies toNight. I'm definitely not happy with that, but what can you do?

By the way, this is actually a pretty good point too. So we WILL basically know the true Ranger by the next morning, even if the WWs don't kill the real one.

Brinn looks good to me, too, and sensible, by her posting.

I did not, this far, pay much attention to Nogrod, as I'd really need to go through his posts and focus on him in particular. Anyway, he's not around today, I may do that as long as there are not too many posts, let's see. I also want to check Nerwen. Somebody said that Kitanna may be good in fooling the village, it's true she seems genuine to me, but who knows. I am probably going to check these people as soon as I can. But now, I will probably leave and not sure how long before DL I'll come back (I have also other RL things to do). I will drop by, if nothing more, though.

[Nienna]

Ok I have to vote now. Nerwen's recent posts are making me wary. I'm not sure if it is just because of her close-mindedness about Morsul or not though. I'm going to keep my eye on her.

I'm really sorry that Nog isn't around to defend himself but I have no other person I'm comfortable with lynching.

++Nog

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Ok I have to vote now. Nerwen's recent posts are making me wary. I'm not sure if it is just because of her close-mindedness about Morsul or not though. I'm going to keep my eye on her.

Fine by me... by why is it so important to you that people be open-minded about him? It's not as though I'm proposing to lynch him.

Originally Posted by Nienna

I'm really sorry that Nog isn't around to defend himself but I have no other person I'm comfortable with lynching.

++Nog

Why Nogrod? Because of Roa's points on him?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Meanwhile, I'm not all that keen on Wilwa's willingness to believe Morsul (see #164).

Well at the beginning of the Day Pitch's first post just struck me the wrong way, but I wasn't planning to say anything right away, well honestly cause I didn't want to look bad. So when Morsul revealed I was more inclined to believe him, since Pitch had already looked suspicious to me. Obviously now I don't believe Morsul anymore. He's the Agent, he has to be, so I don't understand why people have voted for him, we should just leave him alone and try to get a wolf. The agent is harmless out in the open, they do far more damage when they're still hidden. So we're lucky here.

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

So we know we get atleast one more dream out of Pitch (two actually because I can protect him the next Night). I don't think he should waste that dream on me, Morsul or Hakon. We already know Morsul is the Agent, no reason to waste a dream on that, and you all know either me or Hakon are the Priest and a Wolf. So therefore the dream should go towards someone else all together. Make sense?

So my vote won't go to Hakon or Morsul, I'm gonna look at everyone else and try to figure out who the other wolf is.

[Nogrod]

I'm finally back from the cosmological excavations and only starting to read (you know those days when everything you do takes double the time you think it will take...).

But I should be able to stick to the end toDay.

I'll try to get a grasp of what is going on first.

[Nogrod]

Intermediary report:

Just finished page 4... what a bunch of crazy people...

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm back and catching up. I'll post my next analysis as soon as I'm done with it, which shouldn't take too long as the post counts are somewhat low and I'm sticking to Day 1, at least initially.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Intermediary report:

Just finished page 4... what a bunch of crazy people...

You have no idea.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

So we know we get atleast one more dream out of Pitch (two actually because I can protect him the next Night). I don't think he should waste that dream on me, Morsul or Hakon. We already know Morsul is the Agent, no reason to waste a dream on that, and you all know either me or Hakon are the Priest and a Wolf. So therefore the dream should go towards someone else all together. Make sense?

No. You're saying that – contrary to our assumptions– the village will learn nothing about yours and Hakon's roles from toNight's kill? Then I'd say the Seer should definitely dream one of you!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No. You're saying that – contrary to our assumptions– the village will learn nothing about yours and Hakon's roles from toNight's kill? Then I'd say the Seer should definitely dream one of you!

But eventually one of us will be found out for what we really are (cause the wolves will eventually kill me and then you'll know what Hakon really is, or something will occur that will make it obvious which of us is what), if we have a limited number of dreams we should use them on those we have absolutely no idea about. You already know one of us has to be a wolf, and one of us has to be telling the truth. Everyone else we have no idea about, the more information we get the better. A dream on me, Hakon or Morsul would be a waste.

I have to get some studying done, like really badly. I'll be back for the last hour of the day. I'll decide then whom to vote for, right now I have no idea.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I actually agree somewhat with Wilwa: The wolves could easily just leave the seer and the ranger alive tonight to continue the charade tomorrow. They're stuck with it now since one of them has pulled this move. They may gamble and try to continue. It would be incredibly risky on their parts, but they've already come out with a false reveal which is always risky.

I think that this whole plan points to inexperienced though not necessarily new players. They had the advantage until they drew the spotlight onto themselves with a false reveal. Someone who has tried that or seen it tried would know how dangerous that is.

I strongly advise Hakon, IF you are the real ranger to not try another gamble tonight, because if you do and Pitch dies, we will surely lynch you.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

I don't know that wolves would leave a generally accepted seer alive, just to keep up a charade by one of their number. I think the logic there is a bit flawed.
I do think the seer / ranger confusion ought not to be a concern of ours when it comes to votes right now.

Nog makes me a bit uneasy. There just seemed to be a common vibe between him and SPM yesterDay. That could have been an intention of SPM though, I suppose.

Loslote's vote on Pitch looked as though she was grasping at suspicion of Pitch started by Nog and SPM. GrantedSPM did vote for her, but wolf-on-wolf should not be considered out of the question there. One vote, against a fellow who had no others I don't think would be particularly risky, and would serve to create some distance between the two of them. Then again, those who know SPM well seem to think voting for a fellow on Day 1 would be out of character for him.

Nerwen seems pretty trustworthy to me, as does Roa.

Brinn also gives no cause for alarm at the moment.

Lari was saying SPM needed watching early on. She expressed some doubt about Pitch's reveal. I can't fault her for that, since it caught me by surprise too.

Craydon has been here. Votes for Morsul, which I think is a bit of a waste. No bad feeling about him though.

Kitanna has been somewhat under the radar for me. I can't recall anything that's given me much pause, but I haven't read over her posts carefully.

Legate seems like he might need watching for some reason, but it's nothing I can can out my finger on. It's not in anything in particular he's said; more the tone I guess.

Nienna might be the one I am most wary of now. There was the incident yesterDay with Morsul and his vote for her. She voted for Pitch, and like Loslote could have been picking up things thrown out about him by others to justify her vote. She said she thought Morsul's reveal had a joking quality to it, and thought Nerwen was 'closed minded' about Morsul. I thought Nerwen had been making quite a bit of sense. Has also voted Nog today. Hmm.

x/d with several

[Loslote]

My vote is totally rushed. I apologize in advance for that. However,

++ Nogrod because that last post sounded off to me. It seemed like he was either trying to get one of the 'revealed' lynched, when we've already decided to mostly leave them be - or trying to throw suspicion on Roa for making strong points...

Argh. This vote is barely better than my last one...he is my top suspicion, so I'll go with Nog, but...

[Inziladun]

I don't think I like either one of these.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Honestly, I've been so focused on all these reveals I've barely looked at anyone else, but one thing that stuck out was how Nienna claimed that Nerwen was "closed minded" about Morsul. That just doesn't make much sense to me. I know that's flimsy, but I just don't have the time I expected to have to look closer at other people. Uh, this sucks.

++Nienna

I could be wrong, but that really looks like just latching on to what I said about Nienna a few posts ago. I'd been thinking Wilwa the likely legitimate Priest, mainly because Hakon seemed so reckless. Now I have doubts.

Originally Posted by Loslote

++ Nogrod because that last post sounded off to me. It seemed like he was either trying to get one of the 'revealed' lynched, when we've already decided to mostly leave them be - or trying to throw suspicion on Roa for making strong points...

I don't see that Nog was saying either of those things, really. Seems a bit of a reach.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

My vote is totally rushed.

Heh... you're most true with that vote being "totally rushed" indeed.

It's nothing unusual I lead the votes but I would like to have my posts read before voting on them and saying there were things there were not...

Still I'm drawn to think spm would not have tried to make a weak case on Loslote on Day1 if she were his mate. Okay, I'm not totally disreputing that idea either. Maybe he could have done it knowing we wouldn't bite on it on Day1 and would thence leave her as more innocent than not?

Hard to say.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Post 1- "Seems" that SPM's death confirms Pitch as seer

Seems?

"Seems" because at the time I still had the thought of "maybe Pitch "revealed"(ha now I can spell that) so as to get raid of the high profile wolf". And then Morsul revealed and I began to believe Pitch more because, really, that was an awkward reveal.

I was going to do a whole list but I really don't have the ability to function that well yet. As far as the reveals go, I honestly do think there is a wolf in the Ranger ones. I just really don't like Hakon's reveal, mostly because it was totally out of the blue and such. Yes, there was suspicion of him yesterDay but not enough to make him think people would vote him toDay(I think). Though this is sort of what made me doubt Pitch's reveal, he had only two votes, and was the second to get those votes. But now he(Pitch) seems to be the real deal. Does that mean Hakon was following his lead? No idea, but it is interesting.

For the major talkers who haven't come out with "I'm a something"(I'm kind of waiting for a "just kidding, I'm a lover cause we totally have secret lovers!" kind of reveal): Roa is not setting off any alarms with me and neither is Legate. Nog I just have no read on at all, because he is acting like Nog and I tend to not be able to read him at all. Inzil I still have no idea and wish I had more time to look at not just him but also Nog to see if there is anything in their posts.

*is not even going to go any further on any of the revealed*

Nienna is beginning to set off alarms for me. Taking her defense on Day 1 with her vote post(so she doesn't like Nerwen's closemindness about what was kind of a bad fake reveal...but votes Nog? I honestly can't see the logic in that one, because she says she's not comfortable voting for Nerwen...but she is for Nog?)

Brinn and Kitanna I just want to see slightly more of. They both are coming up way neutral to me and I'm not sure if thats a good thing or not.

Crayon...no idea what to think.

Bah I have to think of someone to vote for and right now, without even thinking about reveals, it seems I might be voting for Nienna.

Well if I'm going to do it then I might as well do it now. I really don't like how she's looking at the moment.

++Nienna

Now, I'm going to try to go back to bed.

Edit: x-posted since post 240.

[Brinniel]

I really shouldn't be posting now as I've been awake since 6am and could use some sleep. But I'm fed up enough by Loslote's twisted analysis of me, I feel I should say something now.

First off, I'm rather irritated in hearing her say I haven't contributed much of anything. No, I haven't been as loud as some players, but I've most certainly done more than just banter and complain. I've done as much contribution as RL will allow (which is in fact more than last game), and I find it frustrating that Loslote has the balls to say I haven't contributed at all before actually reading through my posts and realising I actually have. But that analysis post isn't much better. I read what she had to say about me, then looked back at my own posts and she's definitely twisting my words, whether she means to or not.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Post 1: Paranoid, suspects everyone.

You do know this was a banter post, right? And I don't see the harm in some bantering so long as it doesn't continue for several more posts. Actually, that post wasn't completely pointless. I sort of picked up on some comments that had been said (both on Day 1 of this game and also previous games) that I generally found to make the village sound a bit paranoid, and from there I created my own exaggerated, comedic spin on it. And hey, I had fun with it. I didn't think people would really believe I was that paranoid.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Post 2: Doesn't suspect SPAM, dislikes meta-game reasoning, doesn't like random voting.

I don't know what you're reading but I never said I didn't suspect Spm. I was merely stating that I don't think anyone should suspect him for meta-reasons. But at that time, it was still too early for me to think anything of him.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Post 4: Believes Pitchie but doesn't think he should have revealed; is sad to see SPAM go.

The way you highlight "is sad to see SPAM go" looks like you're trying to indicate that I looked like a wolf sad to see my mate go. When in reality I said I was sad to see him go purely for meta-reasons. I even said in the admin thread that one of the reasons I joined the game was because I was excited to see a veteran player like Spm playing again.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Post 9: is wary of Legate but not suspicious; wants to trust Roa but fears she is being fooled; doubts SPAM would try to lynch me if I were a wolf; doesn't particularly suspect Inzil; doesn't really have an opinion about Kitanna.

As you summarise my opinion of Inzil, you leave out some important information. I said while I don't particularly suspect him yet, I do want to keep a closer eye on him. Which indicates I was already worried about him at the time, but not enough to call him a suspect.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Post 10: Says the rangers may be bluffing, but doesn't think so; is uneasy about wilwa; agrees with Legate that Inzil wouldn't have agreed to Pitchie's not being a wolf, but then suspects him for saying he was innocent; finds Inzil 'creepy'.

Pitch already sort of went over this, but I think you may be misinterpreting what I said because you seem to indicate that in my comment I was saying that I thought Inzil sounded innocent in one part of his quote, but suspicious at the end of it. Which is not true. I suggest you go back and read my comment again because there was no part of it that was contradicting.

Roa did state that I took that quote out of context and suspecting him for that was in bad taste. I did pick up that quote after seeing Legate comment on it, and maybe that was an error on my part. I wasn't being careful about that sort of thing, and I admit a lot of that's simply due to the lack of time I have to thoroughly reread posts.

I really don't know what to think of all this. Is Loslote intentionally twisting my words, or is she just misinterpreting what I've said without meaning to? Hopefully I'll make better sense of this after some sleep and closer to deadline.

And might I add as a general statement, I'm quite glad I didn't vote either Nienna or Nog. The Nienna bandwagon looked very bad and I liked it even less that she wasn't around to defend herself. Yet, I wasn't sure enough about her innocence to save her and condemn Nogrod, who I was still unsure about, though slightly leaning towards innocent. If someone finds my vote for Inzil suspicious, then fine. But I don't think that it should be suspicious that I didn't vote for one of the top candidates. If I'm not comfortable voting either of them, why should I?

I like Roa's analysis of me much better and she summarises my quotes more accurately and doesn't twist my words. But I will comment on the time stamp issue so to clarify things. Just so you know, I'm typically a very slow poster (I think I already spent 30+ minutes on this one) and writer in general, which is something I've always found frustrating. It probably has to do with my perfectionist nature and it means I take twice as long as anyone else to do an analysis. Of course this means sometimes I have a delayed response to things, but I promise it has nothing to do with role. I think in the case of Pitch's reveal, he revealed around the same time I started to post. When I hit preview, I saw his post but I didn't want to have to rewrite the entire post I just did, so I just submitted what I had and decided to give my response to his reveal in the following post. In the past, I have edited my post in preview mode as new posts come in but then I find myself spending twice as long composing the post just so it stays up-to-date. But especially when it's closer to deadline, I sometimes just can't keep up with the floods of posts that are coming in.

Gah, now it's really really late and I probably will not be able to contribute much in the morning. Hopefully I won't oversleep and miss deadline (though what I'm even more concerned about is how I'm going to make it to the lab at a decent hour to finish schoolwork ). I am so lacking sleep now, so I do apologise in advance if I do happen to misinterpret anything myself in this post.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

• Originally Posted by Inziladun
  Theoretically, Pitch could be a wolf, and his giving up SPM a plot to ensure his being thought innocent the rest of the game.
  However, if Pitch survives beyond Day 3 or so, I would have to assume he was a wolf and go for him. Everyone knows that a revealed Seer is a dead Seer. It's only a matter of time. If he wasn't killed by the wolves after the oportunities for the Priest to protect him ran out, we'd have his number.
  I do appreciate your giving me the all-clear though, as I am indeed innocent.

Okay, this is making me slightly uneasy, especially considering that Morsul indeed must be a fake. It looks like jumping on whatever train rides by, and maybe trying if there is a chance to get rid of the real Seer. On the other hand, perhaps it'd be slightly too uncautious from a wolf.

Interestingly, Zil was pretty ready to cast doubt on Pitch's reveal yesterDay, too. Of course, that's before we knew SPM's role.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

By the way, and this was asked before, maybe we should ask McCabber Himself, how many WWs are around, then? There is nothing on the Admin thread about it, and the first narration says something about "four paws", though that is by no means anything official.

There are three.

Originally Posted by Narration in Admin thread

You three, go to the city of Innsmouth. Find the root of the problem, and destroy it.

EDIT: X'd with Nienna.