Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nienna]

Bah.

[Nienna]

Congrats wolves. You have found a way to circumvent being found out by the village by night guards. You are also giving up killing an extra person each night. I'll take that though. We lynched an innocent yesterday but we are up two innocents as the wolves have given up two extra kills.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nienna

we are up two innocents as the wolves have given up two extra kills.

Which is exactly why I wasn't expecting them to do this a second time. Just seems too crazy for me. Which is why Nog will probably be guilty, they wanted us to be unsure with this Night Guard thing, to protect themselves, and it worked. I'm very confused.

[Nienna]

Now I think we should use the NG thing to save those we want to keep around. Since the wolves have succeeded in making us unsure of the role of the person guarded. Back to good ole vote analyzing, theories, and suspicions for us now.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Now I think we should use the NG thing to save those we want to keep around. Since the wolves have succeeded in making us unsure of the role of the person guarded. Back to good ole vote analyzing, theories, and suspicions for us now.

You are indeed correct in that it seems the Night Guard has been rendered useless as a tool for finding innocents. That tactic by the wolves would seem to result in a slower, but safer path to victory for them.
I wonder, for what reason did they choose Lommy? Just getting rid of a potential threat?

[Hakon]

I bet it has to do with the fact that Lommie was one of the only people to not vote for Legate. Inziladun, she did vote for you. Maybe you are a wolf and are worried because she was on to you so you convinced your fellow wolves to support killing her.

With looking at Legate voters we should definitely look at some of the ones who voted earlier in the day. I think there is a large chance that some wolf just wanted to get their vote out of the way and they knew they would be voting for Legate.

I agree with you Nogrod that we should look at the Inziladun voters.

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Now I think we should use the NG thing to save those we want to keep around. Since the wolves have succeeded in making us unsure of the role of the person guarded. Back to good ole vote analyzing, theories, and suspicions for us now.

I do agree. Whatever gain the wolves have had from their tactics of seemingly shooting themselves to the leg is that we can't take the NG's as seer dreams. Sure that option is lost.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Who says we except them to always follow a pattern set on the first Night of their action? Wouldn't that be quite foolish? As I said, we can no longer think of the NG's as seer dreams but neither can we take them as signs of guilt (Legate proved that). Like Nienna said it is back to the drawing board where we need to consider every Night individually.

Okay for me it's now +2AM and I'm getting to bed. Happily it's Saturday tomorrow and I have more time to hang around.