Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Anyway, I can understand how people would object to this, because it is a crazy idea. But really if anyone is scared of the Ranger dying before we can get many protects for the Seer (thus the Seer revealing for nothing), then you should also be scared of the Seer dying before we can get any of their dreams. The chance of either of them being killed is the same. So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.

Well, maths aside, because just by maths, the percentage of everybody dying is rather high, but then of course, it's not the way it works.

Anyway - "putting it off toooo long" - I guess that's something that won't happen, because in most games the Seer reveals on let's say Day 3 at most, either knowing already at least one Wolf (and then we can go on with the plan mentioned above) or in some more dramatic cases, the Seer becomes revealed by the fact that he/she dies or is about to be lynched or something as nice as that.

Anyway, good point about the Ranger - I actually didn't think of it, I was operating with the idea that the Ranger would have to cooperate with the others (and stuff like "I can't protect the Seer toNight, I did it already last Night" - but thinking of it, it's unlikely that it would happen on the first Night after the Seer's revelation and also, even if it did, would the Wolves dare to risk attacking the Seer even though there'd be a strong chance of him/her being protected? (of course the Ranger's not going to announce that to anybody) ...well, maybe with two kills per night, they still might...), but of course, if the Seer just announced "okay, wherever you are, Ranger, you protect me toNight and the Night Guard will do so the night after", it's okay. Of course, it's just on the hope that the Wolves don't by chance or by deduction target the Ranger. But it's true that it's a difference from revealing his/her identity, as they would just have to rely on good luck in that case.

Still, I am not so keen on revealing the Seer so early. If he or she had two Wolves by toMorrow, well maybe then, but in the average cases, not really sure. The main problem anyway would be this confusion which is likely to come if somebody reveals. Even with the Ranger point of wilwa's in mind, if we have any counter-reveal, there'll be this "I am the Seer!" - "No! I am the Seer!" - and now choose whom you want to protect and when... although... if we still had the Ranger and agreed unisono on whom we want to Night-Guard (the village would have to agree), we could as well protect both of them and take turns in that. But... well. Okay, I dislike discussing the subject too deeply anyway. It's so easily exploitable.

EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Nerwen - eeeexactly the same thoughts! Yea, good.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Still, I am not so keen on revealing the Seer so early. If he or she had two Wolves by toMorrow, well maybe then, but in the average cases, not really sure. The main problem anyway would be this confusion which is likely to come if somebody reveals. Even with the Ranger point of wilwa's in mind, if we have any counter-reveal, there'll be this "I am the Seer!" - "No! I am the Seer!" - and now choose whom you want to protect and when... although... if we still had the Ranger and agreed unisono on whom we want to Night-Guard (the village would have to agree), we could as well protect both of them and take turns in that. But... well. Okay, I dislike discussing the subject too deeply anyway. It's so easily exploitable.

Well, with counter reveals for Seers it's usually easier then it is for the other two gifteds. They'll have a few dreams by then, so if they reveal what they know to that point (even if it's just innocents), then it should be easier to deduce who's lying and who's not, really depending on what sort of info they provide. But yes, the back and forth between the two would work, and eventually the fake seer would slip up and there we have it.

My brain is starting to hurt. I'm thinking myself in circles with all these hypotheticals. I need something else to discuss....

Who wants a nice pint of ale???

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

My brain is starting to hurt. I'm thinking myself in circles with all these hypotheticals. I need something else to discuss....

Who wants a nice pint of ale???

Me. I guess I have also enough for now.

Speaking of that, miss barmaid, haven't you thought of getting married? A fair girl of your age could start thinking about it... I could surely find you a good rich husband, only for a small fee I could arrange it...

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Me. I guess I have also enough for now.

Speaking of that, miss barmaid, haven't you thought of getting married? A fair girl of your age could start thinking about it... I could surely find you a good rich husband, only for a small fee I could arrange it...

Rich??? Sounds lovely! Find me a rich husband and he can pay you the small fee.

[wilwarin538]

Well, it's been delightful but I must leave you all. I'll be back for the last hour before DL.

[Kitanna]

I see the topic of discussion remains on Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation regarding the seer revealing. That's not surprising. Though I had hoped for a little more discussion, maybe a big red flag pointing to one of the villagers, declaring him/her "WOLF" in big letters.

However, that hasn't happened and I need to vote in the next twenty minutes. I get off work right at the deadline and there is no guarantee I can make it home at lunch to contribute.

I'm going back to ponder, but I'm thinking the chances of a random vote today are likely.

[Thinlómien]

I don't like the speculation about the seer revealing and us and the ranger protecting him/her nonstop. As several people have said, the plan is not faultless. Secondly, if we did, it would feel unfair for the wolves to me. Sort of like cheating. (Yes, and it's me Lommy-the-ever-ordo-and-always-on-the village's-side who's saying this.) From my point of view, it would be simpler, safer and fairer not to do that (from the beginning that is - once the seer comes out it would be stupid not to do it).

Anyhow, I don't know if I should be worried because this talk has been going on for so long. Everybody seems to agree we won't do it now, so why keep talking about it? I admit I haven't done anything else yet either, but the village's single-mindedness is a bit troubling. And I would also warn of making the hasty and probably biased conclusion that Mnemo who made the original suggestion (which is risky and dominating the discussion and all that jazz) is a wolf. I think what she said would've been an ideal piece of cobblery, but more ordoish than wolvish.

I should be going more or less now, and I'm afraid I won't have much of a chance to contribute today. I still have work, agreed to see someone nice and would like to go to sleep early. But I'll be back at least for a while. I'll leave the responsibility of moving on to other discussions to you others, and leave with a special note - I hate random votes (surprise ) and although she often uses them, Kitanna started looking mighty suspicious in my eyes as soon as she promised to make one. What a perfect way for a wolf to slip from the spot. I wonder if you're planning to give the guard vote at random too? Would make just about as much sense... (sorry Kit, nothing personal but I never ever got the point of random voting, as you probably have noticed in all our games together...)


edit: xed with Kittles