Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Anyway, I can understand how people would object to this, because it is a crazy idea. But really if anyone is scared of the Ranger dying before we can get many protects for the Seer (thus the Seer revealing for nothing), then you should also be scared of the Seer dying before we can get any of their dreams. The chance of either of them being killed is the same. So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.

Well, maths aside, because just by maths, the percentage of everybody dying is rather high, but then of course, it's not the way it works.

Anyway - "putting it off toooo long" - I guess that's something that won't happen, because in most games the Seer reveals on let's say Day 3 at most, either knowing already at least one Wolf (and then we can go on with the plan mentioned above) or in some more dramatic cases, the Seer becomes revealed by the fact that he/she dies or is about to be lynched or something as nice as that.

Anyway, good point about the Ranger - I actually didn't think of it, I was operating with the idea that the Ranger would have to cooperate with the others (and stuff like "I can't protect the Seer toNight, I did it already last Night" - but thinking of it, it's unlikely that it would happen on the first Night after the Seer's revelation and also, even if it did, would the Wolves dare to risk attacking the Seer even though there'd be a strong chance of him/her being protected? (of course the Ranger's not going to announce that to anybody) ...well, maybe with two kills per night, they still might...), but of course, if the Seer just announced "okay, wherever you are, Ranger, you protect me toNight and the Night Guard will do so the night after", it's okay. Of course, it's just on the hope that the Wolves don't by chance or by deduction target the Ranger. But it's true that it's a difference from revealing his/her identity, as they would just have to rely on good luck in that case.

Still, I am not so keen on revealing the Seer so early. If he or she had two Wolves by toMorrow, well maybe then, but in the average cases, not really sure. The main problem anyway would be this confusion which is likely to come if somebody reveals. Even with the Ranger point of wilwa's in mind, if we have any counter-reveal, there'll be this "I am the Seer!" - "No! I am the Seer!" - and now choose whom you want to protect and when... although... if we still had the Ranger and agreed unisono on whom we want to Night-Guard (the village would have to agree), we could as well protect both of them and take turns in that. But... well. Okay, I dislike discussing the subject too deeply anyway. It's so easily exploitable.

EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Nerwen - eeeexactly the same thoughts! Yea, good.