TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Rikae]

What am I missing here? Morm was tied with a known wolf twice, and now he's the first to get two votes? It looks like Alona's wolfishness means nothing at all to anyone, since no one seems to be willing to reevaluate yesterDay's suspicions in light of it.

Nessa, Nerwen, do you really think the wolves would have allowed two of their pack to end up tied for the lynch yesterDay? If you think Morm is the bear, do you honestly think it's better to shoot for one of one bear than one of two wolves? Please answer. Neither of you has explained much of anything in this game, and it's high time you did.

Also, I just thought I'd throw this out there:
I think Lommy is the bear.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Also, I just thought I'd throw this out there:
I think Lommy is the bear.

Interesting thought. For some reason toDay (more recently) I've been getting baddie vibes from her, but I was thinking wolf. What gives you the bear idea?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Interesting thought. For some reason toDay (more recently) I've been getting baddie vibes from her, but I was thinking wolf. What gives you the bear idea?

More gut feeling than anything, but also that her arguments seem contrived, she seems less reasonable than I know her to be, and yet she doesn't really seem tied to anyone in particular.
I'm not really planning on hunting the bear toDAY, though. That's best left for later, I think.

[Rikae]

I also don't like the way the group of autume, Mira, Nienna, Nerwen, Nessa, and to some extent, Sally hang together in their votes, do not bother to explain anything, and refuse to absorb new information as it becomes available. This is half the village, and obviously they can't all be evil, but some of them seem to have dubbed themselves unofficial cobblers. None of the morm-voters seem to have made any effort to analyze each other (beyond saying they would) and none seem to even acknowledge that, had a coin flipped differently, they would have let a wolf get away.

Of these, autume seems perhaps honestly misguided, Mira may just be busy, and Nessa is a newbie who might not know what's expected of her (although she ought to, by now), and Sally seems at least more independent, though I'm tempted to call her the ringleader. Nerwen and Nienna, however, know better. They're hiding in a pack, and I know they're capable of more... I can't believe they do so out of concern for the village's best interests.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Of these, autume seems perhaps honestly misguided, Mira may just be busy, and Nessa is a newbie who might not know what's expected of her (although she ought to, by now), and Sally seems at least more independent, though I'm tempted to call her the ringleader. Nerwen and Nienna, however, know better. They're hiding in a pack, and I know they're capable of more... I can't believe they do so out of concern for the village's best interests.

Erm, should I thank you or demand an apology? I'm really not sure.


EDIT: x'd with Morm. Lol.

[satansaloser2005]

Crap. I have to go in ten minutes. I'll be back around an hour before DL, but I've not finished my thing on Nessa. *headdesks herself for messing around so much this afternoon* I'll post the bits from Day One and see if I can finish Day Two before I leave, savvy?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Erm, should I thank you or demand an apology? I'm really not sure.


EDIT: x'd with Morm. Lol.

Nerwen and Nienna should know better than to follow your evil ringleading.

[mormegil]

Really though village we are on the edge of disaster if we don't do it right today. We have 12 total if we kill an innocent today and assuming the wolves don't kill the bear that is 9 tomorrow with 3 being evil, one more day like that and it's basically over.

Rikae, I am beginning to wonder if we should hunt the bear in more earnest today. If we do get him/her today than we are really well positioned for the coming days to win.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nerwen and Nienna should know better than to follow your evil ringleading.

Ahhhh. Lol if I was evil I'd say thank you then. As it is I won't demand an apology either. And really, Nerwen's my biggest fan, so you never know.

[Macalaure]

Those morm suspicions are hard to get rid of, indeed. If I would understand why people think he's the bear, I might get it, but would still think that we have better things to do toDay than chase after the faint hints that the bear might have left. Since I don't understand those suspicions, all I can do is shake my head. I'm particularly worried about Nerwen, who has been casting strange votes for several days now.

I'm at a complete loss as to why Lommy concluded morm was suspicious. I'm also surprised how quickly she adopted my suspicion of Form. I'm quite confident of my case, but I'm surprised nevertheless.

I also don't think that the pursuit of Sally is the greatest idea. She's a cobbler at best, in my opinion.

Since it has been requested, my preferences:
Good idea: Form, Nerwen, Nienna
Bad idea: Autume, Lommy, Mira, Nessa, Sally
Very bad idea: Durelin, morm, Rikae

On second thought, let's lynch Sally for plagiarism!

[Rikae]

I'd be quite happy to vote either Nerwen or Nienna, and before anyone jumps on me for not distinguishing between them, let's see them make more effort to distinguish themselves in this game. I have not seen anything original from them, only a lot of helping-a-now-known-wolf and trying-to-hide-in-the-shadows. They probably aren't both wolves, so it's kind of a 50/50 chance, but we certainly can't afford to keep them around, assuming they'll continue as they have - they'll just create confusion and harm the village.

I'd rather vote the people higher on the list than those lower (although I might change this list a bit):

Nienna
Nerwen
Sally
Nessa
Lommy
Autume
Mira
Form
Durelin
Morm
Mac
Rikae

Another thing - although it's far from Day 1, we still have an awful lot of quiet people who are not giving us anything to go on. If they are wolves, and we let them win, it will be a dishonorable win for them... but also, shame on us for allowing them to lurk their way to victory. If they are innocent, they're not helping the village much at all (in fact, they've been voting like cobblers) and having them around in the endgame could be disastrous. I'm not suggesting we vote quiet people instead of suspected baddies, but all else being equal, it might be a good idea to go for the quieter suspect - even if we're wrong, it will make for a livelier and easier-to-read village in days to come than if we lynched a louder innocent.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'd rather vote the people higher on the list than those lower (although I might change this list a bit):

Nienna
Nerwen
Sally
Nessa
Lommy
Autume
Mira
Form
Durelin
Morm
Mac
Rikae

My order is:

Nienna/Sally/Form all tied
Lommy
Nerwen
Nessa
Mira
Autume
Durelin
Rikae
Mac

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I also don't like the way the group of autume, Mira, Nienna, Nerwen, Nessa, and to some extent, Sally hang together in their votes, do not bother to explain anything, and refuse to absorb new information as it becomes available. This is half the village, and obviously they can't all be evil, but some of them seem to have dubbed themselves unofficial cobblers. None of the morm-voters seem to have made any effort to analyze each other (beyond saying they would) and none seem to even acknowledge that, had a coin flipped differently, they would have let a wolf get away.

Of these, autume seems perhaps honestly misguided, Mira may just be busy, and Nessa is a newbie who might not know what's expected of her (although she ought to, by now), and Sally seems at least more independent, though I'm tempted to call her the ringleader. Nerwen and Nienna, however, know better. They're hiding in a pack, and I know they're capable of more... I can't believe they do so out of concern for the village's best interests.

Rikae you put words to my thoughts exactly. Thank you.

I wonder Rikae are you considering voting for Sally? Sally, Nienna, Form or Lommy are my most likely candidates, it may be necessary to change to save my life again, but it might be nice to get some consensus now if we can. Mac and Durelin what are you two thinking?

Autume is seeming more innocently misguided today especially the more recent posts.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I also don't like the way the group of autume, Mira, Nienna, Nerwen, Nessa, and to some extent, Sally hang together in their votes, do not bother to explain anything, and refuse to absorb new information as it becomes available. This is half the village, and obviously they can't all be evil, but some of them seem to have dubbed themselves unofficial cobblers. None of the morm-voters seem to have made any effort to analyze each other (beyond saying they would) and none seem to even acknowledge that, had a coin flipped differently, they would have let a wolf get away.

You have made a good point Rikae. I do believe there is a wolf in there somewhere. I'm leaning towards Mira, Nienna, Nerwen, or Nessa.

I have believed that one of these are a wolf for a while now. I don't remember if I put anything about some of the people that have been quiet. I might not have after my vote on Day 1. I do think that one of these possibly two of these are a wolf. They just haven't posted a lot for me to get a feel for them.

Edit: x-ed with Form

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by autume98

You have made a good point Rikae. I do believe there is a wolf in there somewhere. I'm leaning towards Mira, Nienna, Nerwen, or Nessa.

In other words, anyone but you?
What do you think about each in particular? They can't all be wolves, of course.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Rikae

In other words, anyone but you?
What do you think about each in particular? They can't all be wolves, of course.

Of course anyone but me.

On a more serious note I'm leaning towards Nessa, Nerwen, or Nienna.

Nienna does look suspicious. She has been playing it pretty safe thus far. I don't know if this is how she normally plays or not. I'm also not comfortable with the reasoning she gives for morm. All she mentions is that he talked about the bear a lot. The thing that I was looking at morm for was more along the lines of the kills of the bear along with the voting. Sally points it out in her analysis of morm yesterday. I wouldn't have voted for morm on just speaking about the bear.

Nerwen - I'm not sure what to think about her. She seems to be playing it pretty safe too. I know people have mentioned cobblery, which it could be. I don't know what a Nerwen-wolf looks like. So I'm not sure what she would do.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

++Mormegil

Somehow he seems more suspicious than Alona.

I can't claim that I really know what I'm doing here, though...

Looks like she is just jumping on a band-wagon. Could be possibly trying to save Alona.

Interestingly enough Mira posts right after Nerwen:
[QUOTE-Mira]Crap.

++Mormegil

Unfortunately I was going to say the same thing Nerwen did. Voting for someone else who I find suspicious at this point would be a throw-away.[/QUOTE]
I don't like either of these votes. There is no reason for their votes. At this point Alona has 5 votes and morm had 3. Both of their votes at this time make it a tie.

So with that both Mira and Nerwen look suspicious.

Edit: x-ed with lots

[Durelin]

I definitely feel there is something wrong with Lommy and have felt so from the time she first started posting.

Now the question to me is - go for a simply evil-looking Lommy...wolf or bear, I am not at all sure...OR go with evil-looking with more wolf-y connections. Of course, she did save alona!

While I am uneasy about morm (in a bearish sense), I think it is compeltely bizarre that Nessa, Nerwen, and Form have completely passed over the fact that we lynched a wolf yesterDay! To a certain extent they all seem to be on a different planet from the rest of the game. I get the same sense from Lommy...at least she did an alona-related analysis, though one of her probable-mates was morm...

Anyway, since I know it's a concern... My bear-suspicion of morm began only toDay, I will tell you that. And I do not feel at all confident enough to vote for him.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

While I am uneasy about morm (in a bearish sense), I think it is compeltely bizarre that Nessa, Nerwen, and Form have completely passed over the fact that we lynched a wolf yesterDay! To a certain extent they all seem to be on a different planet from the rest of the game. I get the same sense from Lommy...at least she did an alona-related analysis, though one of her probable-mates was morm...

What's to say? I've only got on in the last couple hours, and Day's well under way. Better to address where we're at, especially if you are a chronic non-analyser of pages and pages of posts.

But... really. Alona was lost in the mess Day 1, looked suspicious on Day 2 and even more suspicious when other people mysteriously appeared to save her (though now that I mention it, why aren't they more suspicious?), and was clearly in danger all day yesterday, died, and here we are.

Well, that's my reasoning anyway...

[Durelin]

Well, if Form's a wolf I'm going to be more convinced Lommy's the bear...

Form seems too hung up on morm but he was the second vote for alona yesterDay, hoping to avoid lynching himself, when he just as easily could have voted for morm, which would have brought him up to 3 already.

Wolf who voted his fellow or bear...I just have no sense of Form, gut-feeling wise or vibes or whatever.

[Durelin]

And knowing a wolf leaves use nothing to go on, Form? Nothing at all, except that well, now morm's more likely the bear?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

And knowing a wolf leaves use nothing to go on, Form? Nothing at all, except that well, now morm's more likely the bear?

Well, no, it does leave more to go on than that. If that's the impression I'm giving, it's wrong of me.

It is, however, fair to see that it's all I've managed to glean from it, so it's really all that I can post about it. Partly this is my own fault--a predilection for analysing rather than researching, and I would categorise looking back at Alona and relations to and from her as research. It's also partly circumstance. I've come back into the Day at a point where yesterDay is long gone and a reasonable substance of new argument has come up--including, throughout the course of itself, plenty of commentary already about Alona. My feelings, at this point, take into account what people have argued today. Morm, especially, didn't look particularly suspicious to me yesterDay (as I think someone more Research-inclined would agree if they took a look), but in the wake of his certitude that he was last Night's dream, he looks very suspicious.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by autume98

You have made a good point Rikae. I do believe there is a wolf in there somewhere. I'm leaning towards Mira, Nienna, Nerwen, or Nessa.

I have believed that one of these are a wolf for a while now. I don't remember if I put anything about some of the people that have been quiet. I might not have after my vote on Day 1. I do think that one of these possibly two of these are a wolf. They just haven't posted a lot for me to get a feel for them.

Edit: x-ed with Form

So you agree completely with what Rikae says. That's not suspicious at all. Actually, I don't find it that suspicious because I doubt that even a newbie wolf would be quite that obvious.

That being said, I am back only to do my promised analysis of Shasta's posts and then I'm gone for the rest of the night.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

So you agree completely with what Rikae says. That's not suspicious at all. Actually, I don't find it that suspicious because I doubt that even a newbie wolf would be quite that obvious.

That being said, I am back only to do my promised analysis of Shasta's posts and then I'm gone for the rest of the night.

Never said I agree completely, just that she made a good point. It has also been a feeling of mine for a while now that one of you four are the wolf?

Now I'm wondering why you voted for morm yesterday. Care to share?

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by autume98

Never said I agree completely, just that she made a good point. It has also been a feeling of mine for a while now that one of you four are the wolf?

Now I'm wondering why you voted for morm yesterday. Care to share?

Sure. I wanted to keep Alona alive a while longer in order to look at the prospect that she and you were BFFs like phantom suggested you might be. Nothing more vicious than that.

[Mirandir]

#84
Says to lay of Nerwen for the backwards writing thing, banters with phantom.

#86
banter

#392
Votes Pitchwife for his first post.

#402-403
banter

#428
"Can I just say that I hate the "voting to keep around someone more useful" reason for voting? It's the main reason I got into it with Nogrod two games ago - it's basically a slap in the face to someone who may not have been able to participate, etc.

Also, Pitchwife backs off his alona vote when pressed? Interesting. My vote stands, for now."

#434
Vote count
"Noteworthy: Pitchwife seemed to freak a bit after suspicion turned to him and jumped on Mac's vote for alona, but why didn't he vote for Hakon if he were evil?"

#454
"Form, you've never liked me in any games you've played with me, I get that, but I've never seen you blatantly lie about me before. I haven't suspected Rikae at all, and I'd like to know just where you got that particular assumption."

#535
Confuses morm with Mira.

#578
Votes Mira for pointing out gifteds

~~~~~

That is seriously all he posted. Based on this meager amount, I personally don't see any ranger hints. Furthermore, I certainly don't see any reason why the bear would kill him. He doesn't mention the bear at all (unless I missed something), and thus doesn't leave any clues as to who he thinks it might be. Why bother killing someone who doesn't post a lot and thereby is probably going to be an easy lynch target for his lack of participation. I don't get it.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

That is seriously all he posted. Based on this meager amount, I personally don't see any ranger hints. Furthermore, I certainly don't see any reason why the bear would kill him. He doesn't mention the bear at all (unless I missed something), and thus doesn't leave any clues as to who he thinks it might be. Why bother killing someone who doesn't post a lot and thereby is probably going to be an easy lynch target for his lack of participation. I don't get it.

Granted, I'm going to look my answer is too right and fits too perfectly... but that seems perfectly obvious to me--Shasta was quiet and left no trail, and therefore the Bear would kill him--to leave no trail. I've mentioned this a couple times already, and I think it's fair to bring it up again, but the Bear should be a lot harder to find than Wolves or a Seer, because s/he has no knowledge of anyone's roles--same as an Ordo. Theories that Bears can't help giving themselves away aside (because while they have some credence, they're not really relevant to the night kills), it would be in the Bear's best interest to kill the quiet ones at night, because this keeps them as anonymous as their daytime knowledge might.

Brinn's death also fits that pattern. Hakon's? Well... Hakon's death doesn't fit it as obviously, but it does fit. At least, it seems to me anyway, that there's pretty much no way on the basis of Day 1 that Hakon's demise would implicate anyone, and I would interpret that in the same way: the Bear is sniping people leaving no trail, and that's the whole point.

[Durelin]

I've always felt it's a bit of a waste to try and find a pattern/clues/whatever in the Night kills, but I guess maybe that's just a personal thing...because I know that people can make picks for all sorts of reasons, not always tactical...

I largely agree with Rikae's lynch priority list.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Granted, I'm going to look my answer is too right and fits too perfectly... but that seems perfectly obvious to me--Shasta was quiet and left no trail, and therefore the Bear would kill him--to leave no trail. I've mentioned this a couple times already, and I think it's fair to bring it up again, but the Bear should be a lot harder to find than Wolves or a Seer, because s/he has no knowledge of anyone's roles--same as an Ordo. Theories that Bears can't help giving themselves away aside (because while they have some credence, they're not really relevant to the night kills), it would be in the Bear's best interest to kill the quiet ones at night, because this keeps them as anonymous as their daytime knowledge might.

Brinn's death also fits that pattern. Hakon's? Well... Hakon's death doesn't fit it as obviously, but it does fit. At least, it seems to me anyway, that there's pretty much no way on the basis of Day 1 that Hakon's demise would implicate anyone, and I would interpret that in the same way: the Bear is sniping people leaving no trail, and that's the whole point.

I hadn't thought of it that way... And because of your perfectly logical answer, you must, by default, be the bear.

Okay, I need to vote now because I'm already late for another engagement. I wish I had more time, but unfortunately circumstances do not permit it.

++autumne

Right now she looks the most suspicious to me, due to both her agreeing with Rikae as I mentioned earlier and because she seemed to calm down a bit after Alona was offed, as if she was backing off to protect herself with one packmate down.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Granted, I'm going to look my answer is too right and fits too perfectly... but that seems perfectly obvious to me--Shasta was quiet and left no trail, and therefore the Bear would kill him--to leave no trail. I've mentioned this a couple times already, and I think it's fair to bring it up again, but the Bear should be a lot harder to find than Wolves or a Seer, because s/he has no knowledge of anyone's roles--same as an Ordo. Theories that Bears can't help giving themselves away aside (because while they have some credence, they're not really relevant to the night kills), it would be in the Bear's best interest to kill the quiet ones at night, because this keeps them as anonymous as their daytime knowledge might.

Brinn's death also fits that pattern. Hakon's? Well... Hakon's death doesn't fit it as obviously, but it does fit. At least, it seems to me anyway, that there's pretty much no way on the basis of Day 1 that Hakon's demise would implicate anyone, and I would interpret that in the same way: the Bear is sniping people leaving no trail, and that's the whole point.

I tend to agree with this line of thought on the bear. I don't think the bear had any idea Shasta was the ranger as I've said before I think he/she got lucky.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Rikae

What am I missing here? Morm was tied with a known wolf twice, and now he's the first to get two votes? It looks like Alona's wolfishness means nothing at all to anyone, since no one seems to be willing to reevaluate yesterDay's suspicions in light of it.

Nessa, Nerwen, do you really think the wolves would have allowed two of their pack to end up tied for the lynch yesterDay? If you think Morm is the bear, do you honestly think it's better to shoot for one of one bear than one of two wolves? Please answer. Neither of you has explained much of anything in this game, and it's high time you did.

Also, I just thought I'd throw this out there:
I think Lommy is the bear.

First: That's a good point about morm. I will have to take that into consideration.

Second: Nessa is raising some flags. I'm not comfortable with her No Vote yesterday. She has been awfully quiet throughout the game. However that may mean nothing.

Third: I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling bad vibes coming from Lommy.

Edit: x-ed with #1220 to here

[Boromir88]

Nienna will also be hampered late due to work.

End Note.

[satansaloser2005]

Have to go, sadly. I'll finish Nessa (that's what she said) when I return.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

What am I missing here? Morm was tied with a known wolf twice, and now he's the first to get two votes? It looks like Alona's wolfishness means nothing at all to anyone, since no one seems to be willing to reevaluate yesterDay's suspicions in light of it.

Okay, I guess here's where a distinction between Bear and Wolf makes a lot of sense to draw.

If Morm is the Bear, then relations to a Known Wolf means precious little or nothing. Any association to be drawn would be as spurious as between an Ordo and a Known Wolf--and just as impossible to tell apart from non-spurious relationships.

Secondly, it has happened before that two wolves have been on the block at the same time--an antsy situation for the Wolves, certainly, but not, simply on the basis of that, a reason to discount shared lupinity.

All the same, I think you're right about this mostly removing Morm from the list of likely wolves. But that doesn't mean he's not still suspicious; it just mean that as suspiciou-Morm he's more liable to be the Bear.

Liable to be the Bear, I note, on the grounds that he's suspicious and seemingly not connected to our Known (dead) Wolf--not the more spurious grounds of "he talks about bears so he is one."