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Old 08-14-2009, 09:58 PM   #1
Mirandir
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Analysis 1 of 3: Pitchwife

#124
Says has to be off to work, but says phantom's proposal to the Bear to side with the village against the wolves might work for a while, but not forever.

#230
Back and reading.

#291
Doesn't suspect Hakon.
Thinks Mac is reasonable.
Feels morm overreacted with vote for Hakon.
Finds Nerwen amusing but difficult to read.
Says Rikae is talking sense, but prolonging discussion she herself claimed was useless.

#313
Thinks Hakon-waggon is suspicion, ponders one wolf being among voters.
Liked phantom's idea of lynching Fea to avoid killing a gifted. Wonders how Fea-vote would leave less of a trail than a no-vote.

#325
Answers own question - no-votes need to be explained the next day, Fea-voters can say they did it because phantom suggested it.
Responds to Rikae - doesn't think she is the bear, suggests might be a wolf that doesn't want the bear turning on the wolves or an innocent who disagrees with phantom. Probably the latter.

#333
List! In alphabetical order!
Brinn - most of what she said sounds good
Inzil - same as Brinn, has good point about body count
morm - still doesn't like his vote for Hakon, but other than that makes good points
Rikae - "better after end of bear discussion"
the phantom - "makes controversial suggestions and backs them up, I like that. I can understand why some people would find his ideas suspicious, but at least he's been starting discussions and given us something to chew - which, I suspect, was his purpose making those suggestions in the first place."

#339
List! Continued!
alona - nothing conclusive, hiding behind morm
autumne - little to go on
Form - nothing to add to Lari's points
Mira - absent since the morning
Nessa - nothing conclusive, but made effort early on
sally - looked good until locked in vote for Hakon
Shasta - needs to come back

Responds to Rikae's comment about people making sense being evil and offers to stop making sense.

#345
Response to Rikae's questions (feelings on phantom and newbies):
phantom - essentially go with it and hope for the best
Hakon - no strong feelings
alona and autumne - also no strong feelings
Nessa - nothing strong, but has most cunning of the four

Says doesn't fear Rikae.

#356
Responds to Hakon's question about Nessa's cunning

#393
Ponders Hakon-waggon voters but doesn't draw any conclusions

#404
Agrees with Form to keep morm, Rikae, and tp around a while longer. Suspects morm and sally somewhat but doesn't have enough to go on. Irked by Rikae's suspicion him. Left with alona and autumne but doesn't want to vote either.

#416
Votes alona, but autumne is a close second

#425
Retracts vote for alona and votes for sally

~~~~~

The conclusion that I have drawn is that he probably dreamed of either the phantom or Hakon, in that order. I would think that his second dream would be of morm. His interactions with Rikae could stand to be looked at closer, since there was a good deal of them, but that could just be because Rikae found him suspicious and he was defending himself.

EDIT: Left out a key point here. I think Pitch dreamed of phantom and discovered that he was the Ranger or Hunter and they were able to talk at Night. Elaboration to come if wanted.
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Last edited by Mirandir; 08-14-2009 at 10:00 PM. Reason: x-ed since Nienna's #501
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Old 08-15-2009, 09:08 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirandir View Post
EDIT: Left out a key point here. I think Pitch dreamed of phantom and discovered that he was the Ranger or Hunter and they were able to talk at Night. Elaboration to come if wanted.
This is not correct. The only gifteds who can ever PM are the BFFs. If Pitch did find a gifted he would not have been able to PM them, he would have only been able to discover their gift.
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Old 08-15-2009, 09:37 AM   #3
Shastanis Althreduin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
And now some clever person is bound to call the above a "crafty bid for sympathy" or something. Very well. I don't think I have a chance to survive toDay anymore anyway, but it would be nice if someone could sympathize me in the process of lynching me, anyway. I am actually a human being.
Nogrod isn't playing.

More to come later, but I'm putting in a vote right now, because I'm, um, training my shadow-powers all day (read: reasons in admin thread) and won't be here most of the day!

++Mirandir for pointing out gifteds, which is how we caught Boro last game.
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Old 08-15-2009, 09:39 AM   #4
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Due to school and air travel I won't be able to log on much if at all from this point forward. Sorry that I won't be very active.

++Rikae

She and Sally seem the most suspicious. Mira's comment seems a bit cobblerish and if that is so a decent lynch but I would rather go for a true baddie.
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Old 08-15-2009, 09:44 AM   #5
alonariel
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Originally Posted by mormegil View Post
Due to school and air travel I won't be able to log on much if at all from this point forward. Sorry that I won't be very active.

++Rikae

She and Sally seem the most suspicious. Mira's comment seems a bit cobblerish and if that is so a decent lynch but I would rather go for a true baddie.
Now Morm seems to be doing the same thing I was accused of yesterday, hiding behind a vote. I agree with what Nessa said earlier - that Rikae is an ordo. For now, a placeholder vote while I run off to do some errands. I should be back in a few hours.

++mormegil
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Old 08-15-2009, 09:39 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Mira and Inzil are looking suspicious to me because I get the feeling they're hopping on the easy lynch bandwagon du jour (me) with misleading reasons (Inzil, though he backed off it when pressed) or simply bizarre reasoning which screams "I gotta come up with some suspicion, but anything will do, since everyone dislikes and wants to lynch this person already anyway".
I was wasn't 'backing off'. I went to bed.
And far from 'hopping on the easy lynch bandwagon' for you, I was the driver of that thar wagon, thank you very much.
I have a question about your Day 1 'trap' for the wolves regarding the Fea-voting after it had been declared she would be modfired. Why did you not immediately press any who appeared to take it seriously, specifically Brinn?
Would she not have been at least as tempting a vote as Pitchwife?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirandir View Post
EDIT: Left out a key point here. I think Pitch dreamed of phantom and discovered that he was the Ranger or Hunter and they were able to talk at Night. Elaboration to come if wanted.
This does look bad. A serious slip, whether from a innocent or a baddie. Mac pointed it out to her quickly, but was that necessary just then? It was already there, and could not legitimately be edited out. Oddly enough she's also put in a vote for Rikae. Could mean nothing, though, as I think she even said she'd probably retract.
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Old 08-15-2009, 10:01 AM   #7
Rikae
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
I was wasn't 'backing off'. I went to bed.
And far from 'hopping on the easy lynch bandwagon' for you, I was the driver of that thar wagon, thank you very much.
It seems to me that before you even posted toDay, you could be fairly confident of the support of phantom and morm - two rather powerful allies, indeed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
I have a question about your Day 1 'trap' for the wolves regarding the Fea-voting after it had been declared she would be modfired. Why did you not immediately press any who appeared to take it seriously, specifically Brinn?
Would she not have been at least as tempting a vote as Pitchwife?
post #301:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Hm, gotta wonder why Brinn is more worried about being suspected than about catching a wolf...
post #307:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
However, come to think of it, Brinn and Nienna are also rather suspicious for the Fea-voting talk - I would say Nienna more than Brinn, since she's more low-key about it, as if trying to avoid drawing attention to herself. Interesting that Boro found Brinn suspicious for this, but not Nienna.
But then, I think you're well aware of that, since you used it yesterday to make the case that I was inconsistent. Now you claim I never suspected them to try to discredit my trap claim?

If it wasn't a trap, why did I write "part 1" at the top, in your opinion?

As for why I didn't vote for them, partly, I was going along with what I thought was phantom's trap, and I was waiting to see what he did with it, only to realize he was serious. Secondly, I didn't find Brinn that suspicious. Her behavior seemed very much like what I know of her from previous games. Nienna, while slightly suspicious, didn't seem to have posted enough for me to make a confident judgment - however, I had her in mind when I stated that I was choosing Pitchwife on a "gut feeling". He reminded me of a wolf-Celuien Mac once caught, as well as other wolves I've seen over the years. Just because I intend something as a trap doesn't mean I don't analyze what it "catches", so to speak.
Voting a doomed player is not always suspicious, but certainly could have looked like a safe vote for a baddie, especially after what phantom said. I didn't particularly think Brinn acted like a baddie looking for a safe vote, and while Nienna kind of did, there was nothing else to go on with her.

But Inzil, I really think your mind is made up, and you have powerful allies, so I probably don't stand a chance... *shrug* I really don't get the impression you are really trying to discern my role, but simply looking for reasons to suspect me.
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Old 08-15-2009, 10:12 AM   #8
Rikae
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A few thoughts on our lack of a seer -
our remaining gifteds are now more important then ever, not only for their powers, but because they could become known innocents in the endgame, allowing us to find the final baddies by process of elimination. I've never played with sheriffs before, but it seems to me that, although they aren't allowed to both reveal at once, if they're clever perhaps they can leave a trail which will allow us to figure out the second sheriff after the first reveals, having two nearly known innocents when it really counts. For that to work we really have to keep our gifteds alive, though, and our gifteds have to be prepared to make their claims believable if/when they do reveal. phantom said this before, and I agree, especially now.
We also need to be careful not to simply lynch anyone who behaves oddly or annoys us (I have to keep telling myself this, too). General advice always falls short in some way, we can't foresee all possibilities, but in all my werewolfing history those have rarely been the wolves, and yesterDay reminded me of the chance that a nervous and defensive person is often gifted rather than evil. Not only don't I we want to lynch our gifteds, but we don't want to force them to reveal early on. Please, everyone (myself included) consider your votes carefully, don't simply go with the easy way out.

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