Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIII: The Cottage of Lost Play

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, Boro, it seems I was wrong about you.
This completely decimates my main theory. I was pretty well convinced Boro was most likely a wolf.

Me too. I suppose your main theory may have had something to do with recent studies in abnormal psychology, especially Dr Eönwe's early observations on bloodlust and/or blood-phobia in werewolves, further developed by your esteemed self? Too bad we were wrong.
But since Boro has now been proven innocent by death, how do you explain his hurry to vote for you? Just curious.

McCaber, glad you're still with us! I, too, hope you'll have at least one more night to dream. And I heartily second Nessa's plea for some light shed on your last dream, if it can be done without compromising anybody.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But since Boro has now been proven innocent by death, how do you explain his hurry to vote for you? Just curious.

I can't say what his thoughts were, of course. But he asked things of me which I complied with, then he immediately voted and left the room before hearing my response. Why? I don't know.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, I highly doubt that one of the wolves would sacrifice one of there own, so McCaber seems stout now. I don't expect him to survive long after revealing his role, but if he does... That's either some crafty manuevering, or something else entirely.

[McCaber]

Well, if there no protection toNight and I'm still alive, then that would be the time for the real seer to step forward. Granted, he already has, but if I was pulling an elaborate bluff that would be the time.

[Lalaith]

Well, this is a pretty kettle of fish, I must say.
That three-way-play that was bothering me yesterday is cleared up, at least...is there any significance btw, in the fact that Boro's status has not been divulged?

Also, do we think that McCaber should share his dream? A trusted innocent might be a useful thing to have around tomorrow....

[Nessa Telrunya]

Perhaps McCaber doesn't want to reveal what he sees until it is required. I can see that being feasible, but I would like to know.

[Pitchwife]

Nice thought, Eönwe, and thanks for voicing it. (No offence, McCaber - I'm sure you'll understand we need to consider every possibility! Of course, you would do yourself a great favour in terms of credibility if you told us what you did dream last night, and why you're so reluctant to talk about it.)
And just in case McCaber isn't the Seer, would you say this might be the right time for the (hypothetical) real Seer to counter-reveal, or would you counsel against it?

EDIT: x-ed w/ Nog

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And just in case McCaber isn't the Seer, would you say this might be the right time for the (hypothetical) real Seer to counter-reveal, or would you counsel against it?

I don't think so. If McCaber leads us astray then we know he's guilty, and if he doesn't get killed soon then we can assume he's guilty. If he isn't the real seer, unless he "reveals" the real seer as a wolf, or a wolf (who the real seer has dreamed of) as an innocent, then there is an opportunity for the seer to lay low and dream peacefully.

But this is just hypothetical. For now I think we should assume that McCaber is the real seer. If he is not dead within two Nights, then we should start getting suspicious (or it could be an elaborate plan by the wolves to make us lynch him if he was the real seer, though I don't think it would be worth it, as there would be a chance that he could reveal one of them, and later this would be proven by his death, whichever way. Wow this is a long bracket).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

For now I think we should assume that McCaber is the real seer. If he is not dead within two Nights, then we should start getting suspicious (or it could be an elaborate plan by the wolves to make us lynch him if he was the real seer, though I don't think it would be worth it, as there would be a chance that he could reveal one of them, and later this would be proven by his death, whichever way.

I can see no logical reason a Wolfcaber would have given up his fellow on the first Day. If this is a ruse devised by the wolves, it's insanely risky for them.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

If this is a ruse devised by the wolves, it's insanely risky for them.

Yes, yes, that's true. But it's always best to consider all possibilities.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

If he isn't the real seer, unless he "reveals" the real seer as a wolf, or a wolf (who the real seer has dreamed of) as an innocent, then there is an opportunity for the seer to lay low and dream peacefully.

But how would we know whom of the two to trust? The same question applies to Nog's

Trying to fake for seer on the first Day would seem like quite a doomed idea as we would have our real seer around to rival that claim later.

Good morning, Lalaith, by the way, and I'm curious for your answer to Eönwe's question.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But how would we know whom of the two to trust?

We wouldn't. But if one is found to be the real seer, then we know the other to be a wolf. And that leaves us with only 1 wolf, and, if that happened at this stage there would be (with the real seer, toMorrow's "execution" and the 2 Night kills taken away from today's total) 1 wolf out of 7 people, which means we get 3 Days to get rid of the wolf.

[Nogrod]

"I do agree with Eönwë. We should trust McCaber now. If he somehow manages to live Day after Day we should start suspecting him - and surely at some stage - not now but later - the real seer might confirm our doubts... or at least force us to make a choice which should then be kind of a decisive one - a desperate wolf might try a fake-reveal I think if they got into that bad position... But let's go with McCaber for now and I for one will congratulate him for a well-made catch!"

Nogrod sipped the rest from his glass and eyed the people around.

"Okay, then you McCaber probably should give up your dream at one point of the Day - at least if that person starts to gain votes or suspicions dangerously enough. But maybe not just yet? It's up to you of course. But you shouldn't let that person be lynched toDay. That I think should be your prime motivation toDay. Otherwise you have dreamt in vain. And then we just hold our thumbs for the ranger doing the risky but intelligent thing last Night and giving you one more chance of catching a cursed one for us toMorrow.

Yeah, revealing a "known innocent" is like giving that person a death-verdict but it's better the lycantrophes need to kill that person that we accidentally do that ourselves. Your shot, as I said."

Nogrod walked to the fridge. "Hah I need another one... but I'll think of the yesterDay while I make myself one"

Just when he was getting to the Tangueray bottle he heard Nessa speaking

Originally Posted by Nessa

Well, I highly doubt that one of the wolves would sacrifice one of there own

"I think they could if that would win our confidence. But probably not in this way, this early. Trying to fake for seer on the first Day would seem like quite a doomed idea as we would have our real seer around to rival that claim later. Had the situation been a lot tighter - and later - I could have suspected McCaber more, but right now I feel pretty comfortable with his revealment."

[Nogrod]

Having made himself another Royal Navy drink Nogrod was ready to scan yesterDay's voting.

"Boro voted for Inzil.

I don't know what to say about it. It was the first vote of the Day and there was very little to back it but that Inzil had been "chatty" without saying much - or that after he defended himself saying there had been not a "great deal" to work with, Boro answerwed that it meant there was then "some deal"... Uh-oh Boro, you were not too helpful there I'm afraid - unless you were right with that blind shot. And we should consider that option to be sure. I mean I tended to trust Inzil on Day1 and I'm alive and Boro didn't and is now dead. Although, that could be a set-up to be sure...

Fea voted for Nessa
Nessa voted for Fea.

Fea's given reason was voting for those who leave no trails of them. Fine and dandy - if she had been an innocent. And then Nessa retaliates? Fine and dandy if Nessa is an innocent. But there are two if's... of which we know now that Fea was making a decision on the basis of solid knowledge about the roles. Of Nessa we know not.

Now it would be quite daring for a baddie to vote a mate on the first Day, but how I know Fea from the 'Downs and what chances there were Nessa would be bitten by us others for not taking too much part in the discusions (at the point Fea was voting - and how she miraculously came back - from her "nap" - to explain her vote...), I must agree she could have made a wolf-on-wolf vote.

What she said exactly was:

Originally Posted by Fea

retaliatory votes amuse me. Don't vote Nessa. No wolf would do something as silly as that.

And Fea didn't know at that moment she would herself be in real trouble later... Hmm...

Nessa's bold answer (#93) yesterDay quite impressed me and I'd not call for lynching Nessa as our first option - but we shouldn't forget that possibility either. Looking at that exchange between the two looks hairy but is it only because Fea was a wolf or if they both are?

Eönwë voted for McCaber.

Now this seems a bit worrysome-one. He said he was going with his hunches even if McCaber looked to him "better than before" (whatever that might mean - I mean has he offended Eönwë at the 'Downs on some discussions earlier or something?). Well, earlier he had said McCaber had been too calculated and detached... Good, good... but looking at Eönwë's actions so far I could say almost the same about him - and it looks reasonably believable McCaber is our seer...

Autume voted for Eönwë.

Well that sure is the most enigmatic performance of yesterDay (and hats off for that!), but really what can one say? Her reason was just "guts after reading something". All the day yesterDay she talked about there being interesting things around, the merits and wrong trails... but she produced not a single example of what she was thinking of! Now if trained by Fea during the Night - just look how she made it yesterDay - it would be no surprise... Very careful not to voice any suspicion ie. very suspicious indeed!

McCaber voted for Fea making it 2 votes.

As a seer knowing who to vote for... and already in his list at #51 he singled out Fea as only one he didn't like (being careful of course not saying it bluntly). Looks believable to me.


Bah, I need a break... - where's the toilet guys? - back soon with the rest of the votes: all four of them..."

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

it looks reasonably believable McCaber is our seer...

Can you explain what you mean by this please, Nogrod?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Can you explain what you mean by this please, Nogrod?

A moment, if you please...

[Nogrod]

"Oh, by the way. Do not think I'm supporting the lynching of all of you I have mentioned thus far... I will try to find out suspicious features also from the last voters. And you all can't be wolves. Only two of you are.

But we need to make these suspicions to see what you others think and how you take them. Sorry I didn't mention it in the beginning. Now excuse me, my bowels are working after the morning smoke..."