WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification)

[Isabellkya]

Full and overly detailed explanation.

I am a Seer/Dream Tracker.
Each Night I would submit a name to whom I thought the Seer would dream that Night. If I got it right, then I got the result of the Seer's Dream. I also had limited guesses as to whom the Seer was. If I guessed correctly whom the Seer was; then I would recieve all past and future dreams they submitted/received. If the Seer was to dream of me; then we would be able to PM each other at Night. Which is why I said I thought I knew what Rikae's role was. I even hinted as such. She was meant to stop the Seer from dreaming me. So the Seer and I could not contact each other.

Which is why I said Rikae was not as dangerous as a Wereduck. Because I was sure she did not have Night killing powers.

First post of every Day - the first two "paragraphs". The first letter of each sentence spelled out "Find Me". In one instance, during Shasta's death day - it said "Seek Me". Fortunately, he never did dream of me. It narrows downt he list of aliveplayers even more.

YesterDay - the whole thing about there being No seer, was a quite pathetic attempt at saving Gwath's life. I knew he was going to reveal when he said there would be excitement after his dinner. However, there were hardly enough posts to enter a post from me saying NOT to reveal - with out it leading straight to Gwath. However, there was never even any certainty that he would get my hint. I tried.


I'll be back before deadline.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm away on a church retreat starting....erm, now-ish. The modduckess is in charge. Her word is law unless I come back and say she's a silly thing and overrule her.

Still send Night picks to me, but send them to the duck as well until my return. I'll be away toNight and part of toMorrow, but I'll be back in college after then.


Theoretically I'll still be able to call Day and Night, but in case I can't....well, that's what ducks are for.


Have a great rest of the Day! Happy lynching!


~~Your Moddess, Sally~~

[Macalaure]

Let's assume we didn't get a new duck at some point, or that if we did, it doesn't matter. Otherwise, there are simply too many options to get anywhere.

I think I will decide between Lari and Nerwen, because I simply think that Durelin is innocent.

Nerwen
The votes: didn't vote on Day1, gave a late meaningless vote for Lommy, gave a crucial vote to Nienna, gave the second vote to Rikae.

Nerwen makes sense in her posts, when she isn't posting in character. Doesn't say anything that makes you wonder. Complains about being confused a bit too much, but also helps to bring light into the dark. Problem: she knows how give an innocent-looking impression.

She avoids clear statements of who she thinks is guilty. That's what I find suspicious.

Lari
The votes: gave an early vote for Durelin on Day1, which doesn't tell us anything, gave a late vote for Gwath on Day2, which could have been a desperate attempt to save Lommy, gave a late vote to Mith, which is hard to figure out, gave a late vote to Durelin, which again makes you wonder.

Doesn't explain her votes, which could be a requirement. Has been too silent lately in general. Hard to get any grasp on.


Kath has been after Lari a long time and tried to scapegoat her for Wilwa and Nienna's sake. It could have been a plan to sacrifice one duck to save two, though. However, Kath kept her three known fellows consistently safely in her innocent lists - why make an exception for Lari only?

Wilwa liked neither very much, while she talked positively about Kath and Nienna.

[Mithalwen]

Mac, Fea, Mithalwen, and Nogrod are innocent Gwath - Proved seer so no reaon to doubt.

Issy has cleared Nilp... on the whole convinced of her claim.

So that leaves Durelin, Lariren and Nerwen.

Hmm well I voted for Lari day one but that was a random vote based on the manic early pages.... given my posting today pot..kettle I do find the Macanalysis interesting.

Need ot just take a little look ..tbc

[Nogrod]

A few notes from the voting this far.

What Mac said about Kath's votes on Lari and keeping her known fellows safely on the "not suspecting" side.

The determined defence of Lommy by the whole bunch on Day2. Three ducks voted for Gwath (Lommy, wilwa and Nienna). Also Lari votes Gwath - although in a situation where it looked pretty much certain Lommy would go anyway (and Kath votes Lari early on to the Day).

On Day1 that tasteless Legatewagon should be revisited as well. It was - surprise, surprise - Nienna and wilwa who brought Legate even with... Dury and Lari and basically started the wagon. Brinn and Dury completed it then. Lari had voted earlier, giving Dury her first vote that Day.

It has been indeed the last three Days that Lari has voted quite late and against the majorwagons; on D2 against Lommywagon, on D3 against Niennawagon and on D4 against Rikaewagon. And all those we have lynched those Days have been baddies (well Rikae only a cobbler).

Uh-oh... this is comlicated and messy...

Back with some added thoughts in a minute.

[Mithalwen]

Voted late Nogrod? She must be a duck then

[Mithalwen]

Nine people, four seer proved innocents, maybe 6.
But at least 2 ducks and not clear if Gwath saw exact role rather than non-duck. There is another killer out there who may be working on own account.

Also given that we had a guardian amd seer as well as misc. other roles, chances are there is also the other of the classic gifted trio - a hunter. Now if so and the hunter is non-logical or lynched... then we may not have so much scope for getting today wrong despite our success to date.

I am inclined to not vote Lari due to Mac's analysis ... so that leaves me more or less with a coin toss....

I will be consistent:

++Durelin

[Durelin]

I am not sure what to think of Izzy's claim. The detail of her claim is convincing, but... How do you know what Nilp is...?

If we've apparently narrowed it down to myself, Nerwen, and Lari, I am inclined to go with Lari because I believe Nerwen's vote for Nienna on Day 3 speaks in her favour of her because Nienna was under quite a bit of suspicion (especially after wilwa being eliminated mid-day).

But then Kath's consistency Day 2 and 3 against Lari is a problem. Both times she voted early, giving Lari her first vote.

A question, though...if indeed everyone is specifically a "known" innocent except for myself, Lari, and Nerwen, and there are 9 of us left (?)...isn't this game over...unless there is in fact a growing flock?

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nog

Although I must admit Dury's track record is almost frighteningly consistent!

How so? That I tended to stick with suspects? I usually do, I'm just usually wrong. I have done surprisingly well, yes (I have been quite surprised myself! normally I manage to vote for the seer at some point and never a wolf), but I think most of us have done well, haven't we, seeing how many ducks have been in some manner killed?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Durelin

But then Kath's consistency Day 2 and 3 against Lari is a problem. Both times she voted early, giving Lari her first vote.

Making a duck-on-duck is safer if you make it early...

A question, though...if indeed everyone is specifically a "known" innocent except for myself, Lari, and Nerwen, and there are 9 of us left (?)...isn't this game over...unless there is in fact a growing flock?

The game ends when the number of ducks is equal or surpasses thew number of innocents - not the orther way around, dearie.

But not necessarily in a more serious note either. To be honest, I don't believe it would be that simple: even if all you three were dead I'm afraid we'd not be ridden ourselvers of evil around. But using Gwath's dreams as aids to limit our choices toDay I think is a good idea. And the added limitation of taking Izzy's role for granted and thence her note on Nilp looks believable enough to guide me toDay. But that is toDay.

Originally Posted by Dury

I am inclined to go with Lari because I believe Nerwen's vote for Nienna on Day 3 speaks in her favour of her because Nienna was under quite a bit of suspicion (especially after wilwa being eliminated mid-day).

Interestingly enough the three of you - Nerwen, Izzy & Dury - were instrumental in getting Nienna lynched... You basically did that.

[Nogrod]

Durelin's vote-record (and a few comments on Lari as side offers as they kind of presented themselves here):

D1: Last vote to Legate two minutes before the DL, sealing the result which was basically clear already. She could have voted anyone there unless someone who did not vote would have turned in at the last minute - in that situation she could have gotten Lari (or herself ) lynched as well.

D2: Gives Lommy her seventh vote. Mathematically it's a kind of crucial vote there even if it sure looked like Lommy was getting the axe there... But had the rest gone the other way she could have tried to save Lommy. After her vote there was no turning back.
Interesting thing here is that the next vote - Lari voting Gwath - is a crosspost (same minute) and it could be seen as trying to help Lommy there.

D3: Brings Nienna to the lead in the end of the Day and gives her the killing blow.
Again, Lari goes the opposite direction by voting Mith, bringing her one vote short.

D4: Basically secured Rikae's death. Not that the chances of anyone else to die would have been great at that point but still.
Lari by contrast gives her vote to Dury two minutes before the DL.


So Dury seems to be wherever the decisive votes are being given and her track record is pretty impressive: three baddies from four votes (and the one she was wrong with was Day1).

On the opposite there is Lari who has managed to vote against every succesful lynchwagon.

So very different candidates here.

I'll go and look at Nerwen's record as well...

[Nogrod]

Oh Mith. Had you seen what I found you might have rethought you vote in the light of what these two - Lari and Dury - have been doing and not just tossed a coin...

Although I must admit Dury's track record is almost frighteningly consistent!
(even if it's "going with the flow" most of the time)