WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Watching/wondering.

Problem is, if duck flock expands, anything village used to know doesn't matter.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

On second thought.

--Macalaure

Insanity runs in the family. It practically gallops.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Watching/wondering.

Problem is, if duck flock expands, anything village used to know doesn't matter.

Not anything, and that's what we should focus on now.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Not anything, and that's what we should focus on now.

Problem is, losing Ranger means loss of safety net. Gifteds with knowledge reveal, gifteds die and innocents die. Not all at once, but one by one. No hope. Gifteds a little more hesitant to divulge information, when a little silence gives opportunity to find out more before certain death. You see?

Ranger dying weighs prudence of open talk. Concept of chatter found wanting.

Obviously ducks don't see seer, or seer dies. Good news. Take advantage. Leave hints. Don't talk. No Brinniel to help your cause.

Hard to focus when, ideally, the Day is spent looking away from.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Also, with potential expanding flock, knowledge gleaned by non-ducks might prove outdated. Say dream happens Night One, change happens Night Two. Knowledge gone. No certainty. Sally rules with rubber fist.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Good, we're on the same page then. I was reckoning about five myself.

I was thinking five for a flying V.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Hard to focus when, ideally, the Day is spent looking away from.

There's something there but I don't know what it is right now.

The Ranger being dead is not good. If anything it will make what other gifteds we have more likely to not revel now. Such as if the Seer knew how many other wolves/ducks there are and knew who they were. And that senario works if there is more than two more ducks/wolves.

I'm tending to be leaning towards the confused end of things. I know I don't like what Nilp is doing but I can't think of why he would...no I can actually. I just realized why Nilp would want to die, but he would have to be sure of something.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Still concerned about Nilp.

No longer concerned about Rikae. Never really was. Willing to watch her work. Could be cobbler, of course. Always an option. One never knows for sure.

Wondering much about Mith. Still alive? Thought of her last night. Stopped thinking, assuming death. Save effort by nothing worrying about lost cause. Except: still alive. Worrisome.

Nog still skin-toned to me. Not right, necessarily, but reasonable.

No longer sure of Lari. Never was sure, just guessed. Not sure at all. Concerned. Always concerned.

Durelin. Getting to point of narrowing down options. Right only because other is wrong. Effective, but unsatisfying. Durelin eludes me. Always does.

Would vote Nerwen. Days pass, more concerned. But perhaps just attributable to lols. I do not lol.

Would vote Izzy. Less certainty even than Nerwen.

Gwath still ochre. Very, very ochre. Would vote Gwath. If all were ducks, game would end. Not all ducks. But enough? Wish I knew how many ducks. Or non-duck evils.

Kath and Mac. No lols, only headdesks. Wish I had a lol.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I can actually. I just realized why Nilp would want to die, but he would have to be sure of something.

Except.

No certainty, but definitely, "Except-"

[Nogrod]

I do agree that we have been stupendously succesful of late. That success could be explained more easily if we had a host of ducks around - so our great killing-rate might be telling us more of our doom... and thinking about it now, would Sally make a game where the ducks wouldn't win?

But I find it really hard to believe in the Fibonacci Sequence stuff. That would be totally inbalanced for if the ducks ever reached five the game would be practically over and depending on the initial number of ducks that could be really soon.

How to get rid of five "Fibonacci-ducks" in a village of twelve?

Lynch one toDay; ducks down to four (no increase the next Night) - theoretically may require six correctly placed innocent votes out of seven existing (and the role of the cobblers here?) - anyway: even if the ducks don't make a mass vote you can see the chances we have here as all the inocents should really come together in the voting.

(It's indeed intersting - looking it from this angle - that the ducks actually voted as a team on Day2! So they knew they could afford it?)

Back to the scenario. One innocent dies the next Night so toMorrow we have four ducks and six non-ducks. Could take five innocent votes out of six possible. The problem: a successful lynch brings the number of ducks down to three which means there would be five the next Day - against three innocents. Game over. Failing tomorrow would make the same result with four against four the next Morning.

Moreover, a double-kill toDay would make them five toMorrow - against five. Game over.

So let's hope they are not five...

If they are three now, they will be five toMorrow - game over as well.

So we're at these dire straits even if we have performed extremely well - three Days & three ducks killed.

If the Fibonacci Sequence is the way the ducks go we'll just have to cross our fingers and hope for our specials to rescue us.

Let's not lose hope. And really it was Nilp who made the Fibonacci-hint...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++NILP

My mind is willing to be changed.

[Nogrod]

I hope you change your mind Fea as I'm willing to declare Nilp a cobbler. See how he is distracting our heads and successfully barring any real discussion - myself the foremost - as I seem to not be able to think of anything else now but different Fibonacci-scenarios...

And anyway the way he begs to be lynched doesn't feel right. If he's the phantom's aprrentice's "dark side" we probably really should avoid lynching him. The good-killer role was triggered by a Night-killing attempt so the bad-killer role should be triggered by a lynch.

So Nilp is a cobbler or a demonical killler waiting to be triggered by our attempt to kill him. In both cases lynching him would be a bad idea. I may be wrong though but I'm not sure I'm ready to suggest taking the risk of finding it out.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay.

--NILP

Fair argument.

So my not-votes are, Me, Nog, Rikae, Nilp.

Nog... Mith?

Worrisome. No idea what to think.

[Gwathagor]

Suspicious
Rikae - Cobblerish for sure
Nilp - Duck impersonating a cobbler? That's my guess, anyway
Kath - Duckish

Less Suspicious
Nerwen - A duck would have been more careful with her votes on Days 1 and 2
Lariren - Not as sure about Lariren, could be a wereduck who's been lying low
Durelin - Her vote was instrumental in lynching Nienna; may have been a duck-on-duck, but I think not
Izzy - I'm not sure, but she feels innocent to me

Least Suspicious
Mith - Phantom's apprentice, I think. Why else would she still be alive?
Nogrod
Fea
Mac

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Nog... Mith?
Worrisome. No idea what to think.

That's a good question. Maybe the ducks know things we don't - like Mith can't be killed by Night any more as she is Gandalf the White, the flashing light; or if they learned about Brinn being the ranger and made killing her their priority as they would have basically free kills after that (unless there are more very-very-special roles on the good side); or something?

I do think the evidence points heavily towards Mith being the phantom's apprentice and it's hard for me to see her role being other than benevolent (add there also all those Gandalf-hints in the narration).

I'll need to go now but I will come back after a few hours for another sit with this game.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Seriously.

Fine.

My burning house/pitcher of water analogy still stands, now I know why you won't do the obvious thing--you're thinking of buying a fire extinguisher.

I can't believe this village . . .

[Rikae]

Clever boy, Bubbles. Teeheehee....

But you know, what'ever Mith is, we have to get rid of her. That's becoming increasingly obvious. Do we have enough votes to do it?

How openly can we speak?

As an alternative, we could always lynch Nogrod.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

As an alternative, we could always lynch Nogrod

We oughtn't to.

How openly can we speak?

This openly: I can take one for the team if necessary. I'd rather it not be necessary, so I'd rather nobody spoke openly unless they knew enough to make it worth it. And it would only be truly beneficial if I knew a duck before I went all harakiri on the world.

No, I am not the seer; seer don't come forth. No, I am not the hunter; hunter, don't come forth. No, I can't actually kill myself; I can, however, take advantage of my Mod-given talents.

Please don't ask me to explain. I'm not at all sure that my short leash allows such open communication from me, eh, Sally? I'm not even sure this post won't get me modfired...

---

Ahem.

I mean-

Be prudent.

Think twice, good team.

Game not over yet.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do think the evidence points heavily towards Mith being the phantom's apprentice

But what evidence is there other than her suggesting she is? The duck (ducks only if you count her suggestions that Nienna was a duck and if wilwa was killed by the phantom's apprentice and if she is the pa...) she claims to have 'delivered' to us were suspected and lynched based on suspicion unless there is more going on behind the scenes than I know of...well I know there is but I don't think everyone who voted for Lommy and Nienna knew they were wolves or voted for them on Mith's orders.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Mith - Phantom's apprentice, I think. Why else would she still be alive?

Do you know something we (or at least I) don't? If she's what she claims to be, a wolf delivery system, then wouldn't the wolves want her dead?

Maybe they did think/know that they couldn't kill her. I don't know. And I wonder why some people seem to.

Originally Posted by Mith

Everyone has their own agenda.... I think mine shall now be to be amuse the Modesses but it will have to be later now....

Are you done 'delivering' ducks then?

Originally Posted by Nog

So Nilp is a cobbler or a demonical killler waiting to be triggered by our attempt to kill him.

I'm a bit more open-minded than that. It's Nilp. He's good at getting you to 'ignore' him until he's the last one standing.

A possibility is that he is actually a day hunter (will be able to hunt the person of his choice when he is lynched). The question is if he is on our side or not.

He does still seem to be claiming here and there that he is the phantom's apprentice, though.

Really I would not mind getting rid of Nilp or Rikae because I'm not sure if we can remain sane with both of them around.

Lari seems the most straight-forwardly wolfish to me in her cautious behavior and her voting record. This is hardly a straight-forward game but I'm not sure what else to go on.

Nogrod is just naturally starting to bother me, I'm afraid. Really I am all for lynching him and Mac for taking the fibonacci sequence thing and running with it...especially since you then declare in your next post, Nog, that Nilp is probably just a cobbler.

I'm not sure why Fea chose to use her retraction so quickly. Boredom, I guess?

Really need to go do some work...argh.

Edit: crossed with Nilp, Rikae, Fea

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Fea, I guess that's two of us at the stake ere NIGHTfall.

[Durelin]

How many people do we have claiming to be some sort of suicide-bomber now?

Seriously. Work. Bleh.

[Rikae]

Oh, something just occurred to me about Mith "delivering ducks" ....

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

How many people do we have claiming to be some sort of suicide-bomber now?

More like a specially focused ninja assassin, if you want to be particularly specific about metaphors... Rather more subtle than suicide-bombing. And rather more useful, when you get right down to it.

[Rikae]

I think I know who all the ducks in the village at this moment are. Lot of good it does the village, though.

*keeps mouth shut*

[Rikae]

M mom and I were just discussing psychiatrists, and she said "oh, I think they're all quacks".

[Macalaure]

Really I am all for lynching him and Mac for taking the fibonacci sequence thing and running with it.

Who? Me? No way! Nilp started it! Nilp started it!


It seems to me that Rikae, Mith, Fea, and Nilp are really playing their own game. I don't know what they're about and I'm not going to vote for either. I'll stay with regular people who claim to be ordos. I was successful twice this way already. Right now, I'm leaning towards voting Kath, but the day is still fairly young.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think I know who all the ducks in the village at this moment are. Lot of good it does the village, though.

*keeps mouth shut*

Aw, c'mon. Do tell. No one will believe you anyway.

Originally Posted by Mac

It seems to me that Rikae, Mith, Fea, and Nilp are really playing their own game. I don't know what they're about and I'm not going to vote for either.

I just don't know how long we can just 'ignore' them...while spending so much time wondering what the heck they're up to. ><

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I just don't know how long we can just 'ignore' them...while spending so much time wondering what the heck they're up to. ><

Stats:

• At least 75% of the aforementioned have special purposes, so to speak.
• At least 25% of them are evil.
• I like pie.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Are you done 'delivering' ducks then?

I am if I am lynched... I was going all out for the village but maybe now it isn't about good an evil, it is about who is nice to me....

Talk about killing the goose that lays the golden eggs...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I just don't know how long we can just 'ignore' them...while spending so much time wondering what the heck they're up to. ><

Chances are, they will annihilate each other within the next two days.

In any case, they will soon be fewer. Given some time, and maybe more info, we will be better able to tell who (of the remaining) is what. In any case they're not all evil, and I'd rather not lynch a gifted.


You people clearly post too much! How is one supposed to keep up with reading?

[Mithalwen]

Ooh that shut them up....

Well I shall talk to myself.

Observations.

Fea is being restrained. This is a clear indication that she is responsible for something or too something. As an ordo she gets terribly bored and is absolutely no holds barred. I don't think as an ordo she would be so concerned with what ever restriction she is under.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'm not suited for this. Maybe I'll just sic Adam on you tomorrow.

Anyway, let's do more lists:

• Feanor of the Peredhil: Used nominative pronouns. Is dead. (Not a threat, a statement.)
  
  
• Durelin: Has delivered fowl words, and should be lynched.
  
  
• Nogrod: Has the temerity to imagine me to be the Cobbler. Pfft. Imagine that. Will be killed toNIGHT.
  
  
• Isabellkya: Can't distinguish between natural Cobblery and Cobblery to cover Avian behaviour.
  
  
  
  
  
• Nerwen: Should cheer more. I'll let her live. For now.
  
  
• Rikae: Is stealing my limelight. Lynch.
  
  
• Mithalwen: Is my dearest mum. Is stealing my role. (Or am I stealing hers? )
  
  
• Kath: Is quiet. Has not posted today. Lynch.
  
  
• Lariren Shadow: Knows too much about Duck formations. Lynch.
  
  
• Macalaure: Took Fibonacci sequence seriously, albeit in the wrong direction. I'll keep him.
  
  
• Gwathagor: Wants to lynch me. Go ahead punk, make my day. *squints*
  
  
• Nilpaurion Felagund: Will be dead tomorrow . . . to be replaced by Adam.

[Rikae]

Hm. Those ducks weren't lynched because of Mith, but because they were obviously ducks. Well, I thought Lommy might be the seer momentarily, but then Nienna made a comment that made it clear they were both in the "flock" together. I'm sure I'm not the only one who noticed that.

So if Mith is "delivering" ducks, she's doing so in a way we don't want. Either she's part of a growing flock, throwing the others to the village to make herself look good, or she is actually causing the flock to grow somehow.

Therefore:

++Macalaure

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You people clearly post too much! How is one supposed to keep up with reading?

Noggin is quiet - especially since he has no competition ... I bet he has a daily quota of posts LOL. Not sure there are many others in compatible time zones.... Kath of course ... but that is it for this hemisphere and side of the pond as far as I know....

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hm. Those ducks weren't lynched because of Mith, but because they were obviously ducks. Well, I thought Lommy might be the seer momentarily, but then Nienna made a comment that made it clear they were both in the "flock" together. I'm sure I'm not the only one who noticed that.

So if Mith is "delivering" ducks, she's doing so in a way we don't want. Either she's part of a growing flock, throwing the others to the village to make herself look good, or she is actually causing the flock to grow somehow.

Therefore:

++Macalaure

This is just the funniest post of the whole game.

don't suppose you would care to illustrate how they were obviously ducks, and point out Nienna's comment?

Or to explain why you voted for me when Nienna was so obviously a duck?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Noggin is quiet - especially since he has no competition ... I bet he has a daily quota of posts LOL. Not sure there are many others in compatible time zones.... Kath of course ... but that is it for this hemisphere and side of the pond as far as I know....

Hmmmm. Noggie is busy toDay, if I'm not mistaken.

EDIT: No wait, that was yesterday. Crap, I'm silly.

[Rikae]

After I called Lommy "feathered" (in reference to her personal title), Nienna commented about me hitting the nail on the head.

I voted for you because your comments about Lommy (who I already had decided was a duck) looked seerish. I'm not in the duck-voting game.

[Macalaure]

So you're a cobbler who votes for the person you think is a seer every day?

[satansaloser2005]

This is getting too good.

*grabs popcorn*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Finally they shut the door on the fire extinguisher salesperson!

Now to get them the use the pitcher of water . . .

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I voted for you because your comments about Lommy (who I already had decided was a duck) looked seerish. I'm not in the duck-voting game.

Okay now we're starting to play it tough, right?

So basically everyone is free to come up with whichever-kind of a fantastic role their imgination allows and we just have no clue whether it could be true or not...

I mean that would make sense. But if you're in here to pick seers then we should lynch you immediately before you "hit the nail in the head". Or is that just what you want as you're the dark side of the phantom's apprentice?