WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification)

[Mithalwen]

We could but, helpful to whom? Ducks? Cobblersesssss? Gifteds? Everyone has their own agenda.... I think mine shall now be to be amuse the Modesses but it will have to be later now....

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

++Macalaure

Let's get Gandalf rolling.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Watching/wondering.

Problem is, if duck flock expands, anything village used to know doesn't matter.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

On second thought.

--Macalaure

Insanity runs in the family. It practically gallops.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Watching/wondering.

Problem is, if duck flock expands, anything village used to know doesn't matter.

Not anything, and that's what we should focus on now.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Not anything, and that's what we should focus on now.

Problem is, losing Ranger means loss of safety net. Gifteds with knowledge reveal, gifteds die and innocents die. Not all at once, but one by one. No hope. Gifteds a little more hesitant to divulge information, when a little silence gives opportunity to find out more before certain death. You see?

Ranger dying weighs prudence of open talk. Concept of chatter found wanting.

Obviously ducks don't see seer, or seer dies. Good news. Take advantage. Leave hints. Don't talk. No Brinniel to help your cause.

Hard to focus when, ideally, the Day is spent looking away from.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Also, with potential expanding flock, knowledge gleaned by non-ducks might prove outdated. Say dream happens Night One, change happens Night Two. Knowledge gone. No certainty. Sally rules with rubber fist.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Still concerned about Nilp.

No longer concerned about Rikae. Never really was. Willing to watch her work. Could be cobbler, of course. Always an option. One never knows for sure.

Wondering much about Mith. Still alive? Thought of her last night. Stopped thinking, assuming death. Save effort by nothing worrying about lost cause. Except: still alive. Worrisome.

Nog still skin-toned to me. Not right, necessarily, but reasonable.

No longer sure of Lari. Never was sure, just guessed. Not sure at all. Concerned. Always concerned.

Durelin. Getting to point of narrowing down options. Right only because other is wrong. Effective, but unsatisfying. Durelin eludes me. Always does.

Would vote Nerwen. Days pass, more concerned. But perhaps just attributable to lols. I do not lol.

Would vote Izzy. Less certainty even than Nerwen.

Gwath still ochre. Very, very ochre. Would vote Gwath. If all were ducks, game would end. Not all ducks. But enough? Wish I knew how many ducks. Or non-duck evils.

Kath and Mac. No lols, only headdesks. Wish I had a lol.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Good, we're on the same page then. I was reckoning about five myself.

I was thinking five for a flying V.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Hard to focus when, ideally, the Day is spent looking away from.

There's something there but I don't know what it is right now.

The Ranger being dead is not good. If anything it will make what other gifteds we have more likely to not revel now. Such as if the Seer knew how many other wolves/ducks there are and knew who they were. And that senario works if there is more than two more ducks/wolves.

I'm tending to be leaning towards the confused end of things. I know I don't like what Nilp is doing but I can't think of why he would...no I can actually. I just realized why Nilp would want to die, but he would have to be sure of something.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I can actually. I just realized why Nilp would want to die, but he would have to be sure of something.

Except.

No certainty, but definitely, "Except-"

[Nogrod]

I do agree that we have been stupendously succesful of late. That success could be explained more easily if we had a host of ducks around - so our great killing-rate might be telling us more of our doom... and thinking about it now, would Sally make a game where the ducks wouldn't win?

But I find it really hard to believe in the Fibonacci Sequence stuff. That would be totally inbalanced for if the ducks ever reached five the game would be practically over and depending on the initial number of ducks that could be really soon.

How to get rid of five "Fibonacci-ducks" in a village of twelve?

Lynch one toDay; ducks down to four (no increase the next Night) - theoretically may require six correctly placed innocent votes out of seven existing (and the role of the cobblers here?) - anyway: even if the ducks don't make a mass vote you can see the chances we have here as all the inocents should really come together in the voting.

(It's indeed intersting - looking it from this angle - that the ducks actually voted as a team on Day2! So they knew they could afford it?)

Back to the scenario. One innocent dies the next Night so toMorrow we have four ducks and six non-ducks. Could take five innocent votes out of six possible. The problem: a successful lynch brings the number of ducks down to three which means there would be five the next Day - against three innocents. Game over. Failing tomorrow would make the same result with four against four the next Morning.

Moreover, a double-kill toDay would make them five toMorrow - against five. Game over.

So let's hope they are not five...

If they are three now, they will be five toMorrow - game over as well.

So we're at these dire straits even if we have performed extremely well - three Days & three ducks killed.

If the Fibonacci Sequence is the way the ducks go we'll just have to cross our fingers and hope for our specials to rescue us.

Let's not lose hope. And really it was Nilp who made the Fibonacci-hint...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++NILP

My mind is willing to be changed.

[Nogrod]

I hope you change your mind Fea as I'm willing to declare Nilp a cobbler. See how he is distracting our heads and successfully barring any real discussion - myself the foremost - as I seem to not be able to think of anything else now but different Fibonacci-scenarios...

And anyway the way he begs to be lynched doesn't feel right. If he's the phantom's aprrentice's "dark side" we probably really should avoid lynching him. The good-killer role was triggered by a Night-killing attempt so the bad-killer role should be triggered by a lynch.

So Nilp is a cobbler or a demonical killler waiting to be triggered by our attempt to kill him. In both cases lynching him would be a bad idea. I may be wrong though but I'm not sure I'm ready to suggest taking the risk of finding it out.