T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Oh, and another reason why I don't believe Brinn. Not only she is so lucky that she happens to be a Seer when Lommy just called her a Wraith, but also she was soo lucky again to dream of Lommy on first Night! To dream of the Wraith who just called her a Seer. Lucky indeed, eh? This is so rusty.

Oh sorry. I take it back. Brinn actually said she dreamt of her as an Ordo, thereby coming to the conclusion that she is Ferny. Oh my, what's wrong with me?!? Really. Somebody else than just me should post, or I will only make a mess again.

(However, still it is lucky for Brinn to dream of Lommy. So many random chances? Does that even happen?)

[Aganzir]

Legate, for one time in your life you're funny.

I always find it rather a coincidence that there are two seers. Some day when I'm a wolf I want to try revealing before the real seer and see which one is believed. It would also be funny to mod a game with two of each gifted and no one knowing about it.

[Beregond]

I'm not feeling very confident, myself. I'm going to flog my "math skills" to make myself feel better.

While I'm not trying to defend Brinn, lets remember that likelihood isn't everything. If Lommy made up her seer list, and picked one villager for each of four nights, then in simple terms the chances of her picking the seer is 4 out of 19 - a 21% chance. Not bad, really. The chances of Brinn picking Lommy on day one, obviously, are higher.

Lommy revealed first, leaving Brinn with few choices than to do something to confuse us all and make us think twice about who is really the seer. She's done that quite well, and her seer list seems to jive with what she's said in the game previously. As does Lommy's, I think.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Legate, for one time in your life you're funny.

Thank you But I hope that I won't play in that game of yours where you put in two Seers or such...

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Anyways if I were a wraith, wouldn't I have chosen to make my life much easier by claiming I hadn't dreamt of her and she could either be a cobbler or wraith? I'm not choosing to make my claim look more doubtful. I dreamt of Lommy because in last several games we've played, she's managed to deceive me. Lommy is some who has a tendency to look innocentish and I wanted to be sure she wasn't a wraith.

I am not saying you could not have picked Lommy, but if you are a Seer, it is lucky you picked her, when it was her who revealed you as a Wolf, while you were in fact the Seer.

Most of all, however, you had to say something now to react to Lommy. You could have said you haven't dreamt of her, but that won't be of that much help: in either case, it will still be clear that one of you must be lying. And in that scenario, if Lommy were lying, she would have been either a Wraith or a Cobbler, again, and it would be between the two of you, who are we going to believe. One reason I can think of why you named Lommy was that maybe you haven't even given it thought into that depth and had to react. The other reason, more probable as it would be more clever, which I would expect from you more, could be that this way, you minimized "losses": you already had to name some people on your list to "fill in" - okay, you could have afforded to name one dead innocent, more would be probably a problem. Rune could be either a fellow Wolf or an innocent you are trying to get to your side and making it seem logical (you and Rune had a row, it would make sense if you tried to dream of him later). Sally was done for, you decided to buy yourself another day, hoping that by burying Sally, you get one day and who knows what may happen - toMorrow, it will still be between you and Lommy, if she is alive. Now you had to fill in some last person into your list, which meant either writing another Wolf there, or an Innocent. Both is in its way uncomfortable. Writing a generally known person - Lommy (who is either a Seer or now, by your claim, Ferny) - you would minimize losses.
But that's just my calculation on how it might be. You must know, and this is what I think, if you ask me. And it does not problematise not trusting you for me.

[Aganzir]

I'm feeling quite good about Legate right now. Of the others I don't know yet.

I'm going to go and finish my Paper Telephone pic now. A friend of mine said it's a caricature of a 50-year-old Rune. The same friend was a few days ago also convinced Lommy, Rune and Brinn are the wolves.

[Rikae]

I see Agan has joined in the random produce-mentioning game, which means she's obviously in league with Greenie, Berry, and Rune. :P

Originally Posted by Berry

Well, at least today's vote is clear, barring some master-plot as Legate said. I haven't decided which of our seers is the impostor, but the real one may be a victim tomorrow, unless the wraiths keep her alive for confusion's sake.

It's not really that simple, though. If we're lucky, the ranger will protect her. If we're even luckier, the ranger will successfully pull off a bluff of not protecting her when the wraiths expect him to, and then be able to protect her toMorrow night, buying her two dreams. It's been done before.

On all this Sally-Frodo business, I had been meaning to mention, when I got back, that she might well be lying, but I see that's all sorted now. Yeah, it's definitely in the wraiths' interest to have us chasing after a veteran wraith who doesn't exist while ignoring the posts of one who does.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Any particular reason why you don't believe me? What makes Lommy's reveal so much more believable?

Sure. If Lommy is doing this as a wraith, she's sacrificing both herself and her buddy – half the team – at a time when neither is suspected. Sure, some might, but Lommy is not Fea, Nilp, or yours truly, so I wouldn't expect crazy suicidal moves.
It would be pretty foolish for her to try it as Ferny, as well, unless she had a very good idea of who the wraiths actually were so she could avoid getting them killed. If there had been some sort of hinting to give her such an idea, she wouldn't have named Sally.

Your reveal, on the other hand, makes perfect sense for a trapped wraith. Good try, I admire your fighting spirit, but it isn't going to work.

It does occur to me, though:

Why don't we lynch Brinn first? Sally is tbe less experienced of the two, and therefore, she's the one I'd rather have helping make the kill choice toNight and advising Mr. Underhill. Besides, Sally's death is not going to shed any light on the Brinn-Lommy situation (if anyone is seriously wondering about it).

[Meneltarmacil]

One thing I'm wondering about: If Brinn is a wraith, which I definitely consider possible, why does she also mention Sally as a wraith? And why would a Lommywraith point the finger at her fellow wraith Sally if she wants to sow confusion?

This whole thing just seems wrong.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

One thing I'm wondering about: If Brinn is a wraith, which I definitely consider possible, why does she also mention Sally as a wraith? And why would a Lommywraith point the finger at her fellow wraith Sally if she wants to sow confusion?

This whole thing just seems wrong.

Ah, but that's the brilliance of it. The chances she'd stop us from testing Lommy's seer reveal by lynching one of those she calls wraiths is slim to none. Normally, after the lynch proves the real seer right, any other wolf she dreamed would be done for. This way, she would still have a (tiny) chance.

[Beregond]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I see Agan has joined in the random produce-mentioning game, which means she's obviously in league with Greenie, Berry, and Rune. :P


It's not really that simple, though. If we're lucky, the ranger will protect her. If we're even luckier, the ranger will successfully pull off a bluff of not protecting her when the wraiths expect him to, and then be able to protect her toMorrow night, buying her two dreams. It's been done before.

If you want to know, when I saw Greenie say she was eating, or going to eat, a carrot, I thought "Hey, carrots are known to help eyesight! It's code! Eyesight = seeing, seeing = seer. Greenie = seer!" At which point I stupidly replied with my own vegetable of choice, and added in some words of Gollum for no particular reason. Yes, that's the truth. I should not have brought any attention to it, if there was a chance she was really the seer. Luckily I think I was plain wrong.

I did think about the ranger today, but didn't want to mention it, because I didn't see the point of bringing it up. I said we shouldn't sit on our hands, meaning we'd still better figure it out.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

One thing I'm wondering about: If Brinn is a wraith, which I definitely consider possible, why does she also mention Sally as a wraith? And why would a Lommywraith point the finger at her fellow wraith Sally if she wants to sow confusion?

This whole thing just seems wrong.

Since Sally had already been mentioned, Brinn could have considered her a lost cause and put her on the list so that we would ask your very question. It almost cinches a Sally lynch tonight, giving everyone else another day. Who knows, maybe Sally doesn't have the time to play anyway? She hasn't been posting a whole lot.

[Beregond]

And I wanted to add:

Before it gets lost on the previous page, we should consider Rikae's idea of lynching Brinn tonight instead of Sally, if we can be sure Brinn is the impostor.

[A Little Green]

So we have yet another seer in the village? Well, the more the merrier! I think that Brinn's claim is more likely false than Lommy's, since I find it more probable that a wraith-Brinn tries for a desperate self-defence after she's been revealed (really, if she's a wraith that's the best way for her to at least try something) than a Ferny-Lommins (I like the sound of that word. Fernylommins. Sounds cute. )(Looks like I really am in a need of sleep.) just ex tempore deciding to try and draw out the real seer.

Originally Posted by Menel

One thing I'm wondering about: If Brinn is a wraith, which I definitely consider possible, why does she also mention Sally as a wraith? And why would a Lommywraith point the finger at her fellow wraith Sally if she wants to sow confusion?

To answer the first question, she might have considered Sally a "lost case" since Lommyseer (that, in turn, sounds like a musketeer!) revealed her and decided to admit Sally's guilt to deny her own. Do I make sense? As for your second question, well, Brinn never said Lommy was a wraith but named her as Ferny trying to draw the real seer from hiding. Since it seems quite evident that Sally is a wolf, though, she'd be quite a clumsy Fernylommins.

I might as well vote already now.

++ Sally

I would have wanted to make a list toDay but unfortunately it's getting late (for me) and studying for my English test took me longer than I had thought. Well, it seems my list must wait until toMorrow since Lommie seems like she'd love to post and I'm tired and want to go to sleep.


EDIT: x-ed with Rikae

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I see Agan has joined in the random produce-mentioning game, which means she's obviously in league with Greenie, Berry, and Rune. :P

Eek you caught me!

Rikae's suggestion to lynch Brinn is a good one. I thought about it too but she managed to post first. I don't think it makes much difference which one of them gets to chat one night more, but it would be rather uncomfortable if the ranger protected Brinn while the wraiths attacked Lommy.
*scrolls down further and notices Lomz has already said the same*

I don't really understand Menel. First he seems to trust Brinn

Originally Posted by Menel

And Brinn, I always figured you were on our side.

and in his next post he says

Originally Posted by Menel

If Brinn is a wraith, which I definitely consider possible, why does she also mention Sally as a wraith?

That's some serious flip-flopping.

When I saw his first post I thought it could be a cobbler hint but even then it would be rather obvious. It's just that on our side phrasing.

Greenie is making me laugh but at the same time, I don't know, she scares me. There just seems to be a certain reluctance to state her opinion on who she believes. But I want to go through Greenie's posts before judging her.

Originally Posted by Lari

While she did leave the comment in her post about rings, would it be so impossible for the wolves/wraiths to turn Frodo and then throw Frodo to us in a way to save themselves?

What do you mean? That sally is Frodo?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Beregond

I'm definitely prepared to retract my vote and choose Brinn instead. I'll wait till later just to be sure, before I lock in my vote.

Yep. There is hardly that much to wait for... but well, one just feels better. It's this "what if..." But I will vote her anyway.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't really understand Menel.
(...)
That's some serious flip-flopping.

I wouldn't call it that bad, I think Menel is behaving genuinely and quite reasonably. Carefully. At least I am inclined not to suspect him.

What do you mean? That sally is Frodo?

I took it the way she did not read, or understand, what has been said properly.

[Aganzir]

Yeah well it's impossible now that Mira and Lari were both wolves so those parts in my analysis could be erased as well.

Originally Posted by Mira

I do have a tendency of overreacting and generally try to take some time to cool off before saying anything

So now you should understand why Rune said that having played with him earlier would give one an advantage. Someone unfamiliar with your playing style could easily suspect you because of that overreacting.

Originally Posted by Mira

While it is true that I was suspicious of Rune because of the way he treated Fea, it wasn't because I was convinced of Fea's guilt.

And actually your reasons didn't even depend on her guilt. Rune could as well be a wolf who was trying to buddy up with an innocent / possible cobbler. But then again he just likes playing with Fea.

Okay I'm starting to feel better about Mira. But at the same time I'm afraid of making the Gollum mistake (he was a newbie wolf and I suspected him heavily but lessened my suspicions the moment he bothered to respond to my accusations properly. It was a mistake I paid for with my life), ie I don't want to forget all about her, either.

Hmm I wonder if it tells something about me that I always go after newbies...