T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Macalaure]

Lily -> Gollum - the first vote, looks neither innocent nor suspicious
Lommy -> Aganzir - flip-floppy, but that doesn't mean much. The vote alone is neither suspicious nor innocent either
Gollum -> Brinn
Aganzir -> Lari - why does she vote randomly? She did have suspicions and opinions, yet she discarded them
Legate -> Mac - first real vote of the day
Shasta -> Lommy
Nogrod -> Gollum - it's not that he criticises random votes, that's to be encouraged, but that his choice is limited to it, that's unnecessary
Menel -> Mac - maybe there's a bit of a revenge involved, but his reasons alone are awful
Rune -> Brinn - he is so over the top about her, that he's probably innocent
Fea -> Brinn - giving somebody a third vote for paranoia's sake? suspicious
Mirandir -> Lommy - looks fine to me
Beregond -> Mac - picks up what everybody else is talking about without mentioning it before. Bandwaggonish vote and reason, something a newbie wraith might do.
Durelin -> Lommy - another could be either vote
Sally -> Mac - not as awful as Menel and Beregond, but still
Lari -> Durelin - throws her vote away in order to prevent a double lynch: suspicious
Rikae -> Lommy - the first vote intended to save me, no reason to suspect
Nerwen -> Gollum - if she's a wraith and one of the other candidates is, too, she would have found an easier way to save that one. If she's a wraith and the other candidates are innocent, she could have chosen a player with a bigger name to get rid of. She must've known that her vote would make others follow and that a different vote would have discouraged them. It doesn't seem to fit, so it's probably an innocent vote. Interesting, though, that she does not mention Brinn in her vote post.
Mac -> Gollum
Brinn -> Gollum - had pretty much the same reasons as I did, plus she was annoyed with him
Rikae -> Gollum - she talked about voting him before but only did so after his death was more or less sealed, which is a bit strange

Suspicious vote: Aganzir, Fea
A bit suspicious vote: Nogrod, Menel, Beregond, Lari
Somewhere in the middle: Lily, Lommy, Durelin, Sally, Rikae
Less suspicious vote: Rune, Mirandir, Nerwen, Brinn
Innocent vote: Legate


Nogrod is trying to hide in the open, I see.

Fea, those were only the options that came to my mind, of course. I didn't say that there are no others. Even incomplete lists like these are helpful, though, I think, as long as people don't end up thinking that there are no other ways.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Fea, those were only the options that came to my mind, of course. I didn't say that there are no others. Even incomplete lists like these are helpful, though, I think, as long as people don't end up thinking that there are no other ways.

My only concern is really in line with your last comment: it's very easy to fall into the trap that the listed options are the only options. It would be an easy bad guy trick to list off potential scenarios which people would then be distracted by.

[Rikae]

Mac, you make a good point about Nerwen's vote. When I saw it, I thought it seemed like she was trying to protect someone, but, after all, she couldn't have been trying to protect all three of you.
Mac just told our daughter that I'm 'doof'. I am the seer, he is a wraith. Lynch him! You will find the proof of my claim in my first Day 1 post.
It occurs to me that the baddies may have thought Shasta was Frodo. I thought he might have been hinting at it, after his first post. That's not much help, though, I suppose.
I just realized I forgot Menel was playing. It might behoove me to make a list of my own, so no one slips through the cracks (or sleeps under the reindeer). In a little while.

[Rikae]

Oh yeah, and:

Originally Posted by Mac

Rikae -> Gollum - she talked about voting him before but only did so after his death was more or less sealed, which is a bit strange

How so? It was my only retractable vote, and I didn't want to use it, then have someone else change their vote and I wouldn't be able to react, so I waited until the last minute.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I am the seer, he is a wraith. Lynch him! You will find the proof of my claim in my first Day 1 post.

This may seem like a silly question, but...

Really?

[Beregond]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac just told our daughter that I'm 'doof'. I am the seer, he is a wraith. Lynch him! You will find the proof of my claim in my first Day 1 post.

I have no idea if you're serious, kidding, or throwing us on a goose-chase, but, hey...

Originally Posted by Rikae

Shasta, you're an Aquarius, correct?

Even showing up as late as I did, I almost had the opportunity to make my point about Mr. Underhill before anyone else, but then Nog had to go and mess it up for me. Eh. Revealing may be the best thing Frodo can do for the village. If we know who he is, as soon as a kill is missed (Frodo is changed) we can lynch him. Also, there is no incentive for a baddie to falsely reveal as Frodo, since changing the real Frodo will get the false Frodo lynched. Maybe he could serve as a known innocent of sorts? Nevertheless, it's up to the ringbearer.

On the other hand, if Bill Ferny doesn't count as a baddie in the head count, he is really no more powerful than a cobbler who has the ability to clue the wolves in to his own identity. This gives us some hope of catching him, as well as the wolves, since, knowing no more than any ordinary villager, the most he can realistically do is use daytime hints in addition to his nighttime messages to help the wolves find him.

By the way, I'm a Pisces (a real one).

EDIT: X'd with the whole page and God only knows what else. By the way, I'm a fan of the gender-neutral pronouns, myself, but since we have a built-in gender for our gifted characters in this game, I went with that.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I think it is a quite reasonable question you ask, Fea.

Originally Posted by Mac

Nerwen -> Gollum - if she's a wraith and one of the other candidates is, too, she would have found an easier way to save that one. If she's a wraith and the other candidates are innocent, she could have chosen a player with a bigger name to get rid of. She must've known that her vote would make others follow and that a different vote would have discouraged them. It doesn't seem to fit, so it's probably an innocent vote.

An easier way?
I thought it was rather easy for her to get the votes rolling. . . and who is it who has a bigger name than Gollum? (You, Brinn or Lommy?)

Anyways I am meeting a friend for pints at the pub soon, so I will leave shortly.

EDIT: Cross Posted With Beregond

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Astrology-Online.com

Traditional Pisces Traits

Imaginative and sensitive
Compassionate and kind
Selfless and unworldly
Intuitive and sympathetic

On the dark side....
Escapist and idealistic
Secretive and vague
Weak-willed and easily led

So... We know you're intuitive and selfless... definitely good seer traits, but you're also secretive, vague, and easily led.

More importantly:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Revealing may be the best thing Frodo can do for the village. If we know who he is, as soon as a kill is missed (Frodo is changed) we can lynch him.

Not necessarily true. A missed kill means more than just that Frodo changed: it could mean that Strider succeeded in protection, that the wraiths didn't get their kill choice in on time, that the wraiths chose not to kill anybody so that we'd think Frodo had changed (or that we'd think the Ranger had succeeded)...

While I won't deny that Frodo revealing might be of some use (until any kill is missed, we would have an Innocent to work with), I think suggesting that a missed kill definitely means we should lynch Frodo is an idea which doesn't consider all possibilities.

Following that, the Ferny comments don't strike any notes with me, and I'm nearly as big a fan of xe as I am of quts.

Quite seriously though, I have lingering suspicion that Rikae just wants my undivided attention since I so blatantly refused to give it to her yesterday when she wanted us to look at Nerwen. Which-

Perhaps when Rikae said "You will find the proof of my claim in my first Day 1 post," she actually meant her second Day 1 post in which she said:

Originally Posted by Rikae

About Barry and Andy - I, too, don't like to vote for newbies on Day one. However, I see no reason to assume newbies are innocent, and I will be keeping my eye on you both! I also have no scruples about voting newbies on Day Two.

Mac, that was a clever move you made there, but don't you think it might bring you under unwanted scrutiny?
(Lommy, I don't mean the "this end" thing, which is a pretty common figure of speech, to my eyes).

At the moment Nerwen is tripping my reindeer.... I think I'll refrain from saying more for the moment. Anyone care to make a guess?

EDIT: X'd with Lommy and fixed a stupid typo. One too many "o"s in "to". I can't leave it that way, it makes my eyes burn .

Bolding mine.

So if she meant her second post, she hints that she knows more about Mac than a typical ordo would, and her comment about Nerwen suggests - again - that there's a reason she's being vague, but that people should pay attention.

Like I said, though, I'm tempted to guess Rikae's just playing with us. Which is a dangerous thing indeed for an innocent player to be doing.

So, Rik, like I said... Were you serious?

Or just playing?

[Beregond]

I don't think Rikae is being serious - if she were the seer, what profit from coming out at this point - assuming people believed her and voted Mac off, and he were a wraith, Rikae would be gone in the night. Doesn't seem worth it, yet.

If she believed it worth the risk, was the seer, and wanted people to believe her, would she justify her statement like she did? But then...why point to her first post?


So if she's really the seer, would it be worth coming out with it now?

If she's not the seer, but is innocent, how would that help us?

If she's a wraith, maybe she's trying to deflect attention, or simply stir things up a bit.


*reads Fea's post*

Good catch on the second post, Fea, that makes more sense. Although you seem to indicate that Rikae knew about both Mac and Nerwen - I didn't think the seer would know of more than one player at a time?


Anyway, it's given us something to talk about.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Beregond

Although you seem to indicate that Rikae knew about both Mac and Nerwen - I didn't think the seer would know of more than one player at a time?

Yeah, I noticed that...

Also what tips me off is that if Nerwen is a wraith and Rikae was so obvious, why did Shasta die in the night?

What might have happened, and I'm just hypothesizing here, is that Rikae dreamed of Nerwen first and then dreamed of Mac last night, pegged two baddies (though not necessarily two wraiths)...

Honestly though, I still think she's just trying to stir up conversation. Otherwise I feel like she'd either be more or less specific with her comments.

[Beregond]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Yeah, I noticed that...

Also what tips me off is that if Nerwen is a wraith and Rikae was so obvious, why did Shasta die in the night?

What might have happened, and I'm just hypothesizing here, is that Rikae dreamed of Nerwen first and then dreamed of Mac last night, pegged two baddies (though not necessarily two wraiths)...

Honestly though, I still think she's just trying to stir up conversation. Otherwise I feel like she'd either be more or less specific with her comments.

I don't know that Rikae was so obvious.
Indeed from her statements, if she were the seer, it seems she suspected Mac day 1, didn't want to vote him off until last night when she dreamed of him, and now is revealing his identity.

But like you say it could be a red herring, or just in fun. Still, if that is true it's a strange statement as it doesn't help innocents much, does it?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Noggyns

Only when one knows - or there is a high probability - that calling one's vote a random one leads to immediate lynching will that behaviour cease and people start to actually play.

Okay this is a valid point. However, you certainly overreacted, given that it was only day one, and that's what I find suspicious. You were trying to cast suspicion on Gollum and me rather fiercely.

Originally Posted by Nogz

I'm having all my alarms ringing for Aganzir because of the way she kind of adds to a fire lit by Greenie

That is because I found the things she criticized you of suspicious. Greenie voted early. Lommy explains a lot, and what's bad in voting me if she thinks I might be Billy/Frodo? The first sensible vote looks like it could also have been cast by a wolf. Shasta's vote is the only one you actually had good points against, but he's dead and innocent.
Besides, isn't this a bit too strong reaction?

Comment: Stating that one's vote is random means that you discharge yourself from the responsibilty of making the vote but still you make the vote and thus help lynching someone. Downright awful, undisgraceful, cowardish, irresponsible, worth of lynching on any occasion where you have no better targets!

Stating something like that makes it look like you were really really suspicious of us, and other people who weren't sure about their suspects might easily have fallen into the trap and voted us. Gollum got voted though that wasn't only because of your dislike of random votes.
That's just such an easy way to cast suspicion, and when we were killed and found innocent, you could explain everything with your high morals, saying it was us, not you, who were responsible for our deaths.

Granted, (forgot to mention this in my summary although I was planning to) it was 4 am when you posted that, and your most suspicious posts came very late, which might explain something. But it doesn't change the fact that I don't like your points.

Originally Posted by Mac

Aganzir -> Lari - why does she vote randomly? She did have suspicions and opinions, yet she discarded them

Because I didn't want to vote for you on day 1 after last game. It would have felt way too unfair. Especially if you're innocent.
Another reason was that my brain wasn't working properly anymore. I just couldn't think of anything and thought, all the same, I don't care, ++Lari.

Originally Posted by Rikae

It occurs to me that the baddies may have thought Shasta was Frodo. I thought he might have been hinting at it, after his first post.

Why?

If Rikae had a seer hint in her first post, it was probably this:

By the way, I'm a Pisces (a real one).

I noticed it already yesterday, as well as some other funny comments. After all, Shasta said the seer was under the protection of Water, and Rikae started her post by addressing Shasta. However I think she is most likely not being serious. At least the wolves have something to think about now. Or, if she's a wolf, she might be fishing for reactions to find out the real seer.

Hey Kitanna, will it be told in the narration if Frodo is turned? Knowing this would make speculating about when/if Frodo should reveal a lot easier.

Also, I don't think this indicates anything but I want to say it aloud. I was a wolf long ago (and there were two wolf teams who didn't know each other), and one day Fea came and said, "By the way, last night I had a dream tgwbs was a werewolf." I was like, "What!? Is she serious? Is she the seer? How should I react? Eek!" and everybody else just kept ignoring her comment... Because they realised it wasn't in-game.
Now when I saw Rikae's comment I didn't pay it a second thought and was a bit surprised when people started actually reacting to it.

edit: xed with Fea & Berry

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Why?

Oh scratch that, I just remembered Aquarius is an Air sign, not Water.