Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs

[Gaunt]

I am not going to vote for Nogrod today, I think. I will give it some more time to see if he is innocent or if he is manipulating me very skillfully.

And part of my reason for this is that Redbeard does seem to have made the case against Nogrod based on little more than him once lightly criticising a player for not taking part enough.

Hmm

[Gaunt]

More thoughts on the Nogrod-Redbeard axis.

Having read over the posts again, I am still suspicious of Nogrod. His actions (and possible actions) so far, when viewed together strike me as forming a pattern that could be, and I don't say definitely is, a werewolf strategy.

I have already discussed his mild hostility towards light participants. But he voted for Samwise - one of the clearest voices on the first day. If we assume he is a werewolf and he killed Kitanna, there is another attack on a player whose contribution, if not the most prominent, was certainly visible.

So the strategy that I propose he may be following is this: pick off strong players one by one whilst gently convincing others to vote for the less prominent wargs. This seems to work because a lot of the experienced players have a hard time suspecting him of anything because they see this as the way he always behaves. That may be so, but observe that his vote didn't exactly follow the message he has been putting across in his posts.

As for Redbeard, whilst he may be right in suspecting Nogrod, I don't think he suspects him for the right reasons. He just seemed to single-mindedly launch into his attacks on Nogrod without a great deal of evidence. If he had made the case as I have above then I would have been more convinced. But that's not to say that I necessarily think there is much reason to believe Redbeard is a werewolf. I'm trying to think why he would be targeting Nogrod if he was a werewolf. I suppose he could just be turning on an outspoken player to take attention away from himself.

[Brinniel]

A lot of my suspicion or non-suspicion toDay has to do with tone. I don't have time to throroughly read each post and pick out specific quotes I find odd as one might normally do. But then again, tone is an important part of this game. Sometimes it's easier to spot a wolf not based on what they say, but how they say it. Which is why I'm voting for:

++Groin

Because as I stated, there's something in his tone that seems false to me.

That's it from me...I must be off to class again. I hope I'll still be alive come toMorrow so that I can actually participate. I just feel bad when I'm not able to be as active as I normally am...and I hate having to vote so early (there you go, typical procrastinator mindset ).

[Gollum the Great]

I have returned.

Looking at "The Prophecy Thingamijig Part II", it seems that if the true wargs gather together (which seems pretty hard to do) our deliverance will be through chance. The originator of the evil at this gathering is coming closer (closer, perhaps, to revealing himself) but someone is following him. These two- the originator and the follower- are both marching on the axis- apparently our traitors.

Just my interpretation.

[Kath]

Hi all. I'm going to make a couple of posts before dinner and then hopefully I'll be able to be around right up until the deadline. I want to look at what Samwise said yesterDay and how and by whom it got him killed. I'd also like to look at what Kitanna said yesterDay because her death does seem pretty random and I somehow doubt that it really was. Then with what I get from those I'll have a look at what's been going on toDay.

Yeah, you probably didn't actually need to know all that but I figured I'd let you know that I am around and doing something.

[Mithalwen]

I resisted teh temptation to go home in a fit of pique but I feel quite rubbish. Will have a read and try to make a sensible vote before I go .

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, personally I don't think this is a reason for him to look innocent; now especially now we are talking about Nogrod - and he may as well have voted somebody who was already voted for rather than to cast a random vote, don't you think? This is not to say that I think it makes him guilty, but I am negating the idea of that this would be something which I would consider a plus for the thought of him being innocent.

Well, now that you made me think more about it, I think you're right. I think I was confusing the most reasonable thing to do with the most innocent thing to do - or simply, I felt good about Nogrod not introducing a new candidate so I instinctively thought him innocentish.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Groin, you said: "Shhh, Gollum, you're making us look suspicious! "
I'd say you've been around long enough to attempt reverse psychology. Is that what's going on here?

I think you're making too much out of a joke, Gwathie...

Originally Posted by Rune

Is this because you find it supicous that people think your style has changed or because you think it would be easy for a wolf to join the choir?

Both. The whole false-seeming notion could be of wolvish origin, but more importantly, it's the kind of nonsense a wolf would join in and support. So the latter more than the earlier.

I don't really find anyone suspicious right now... If I had to throw in a few names, I would say Brinn, Gwath and Mith are as close as it gets but I don't really suspect them either. I will have to think about this more - I think I will make a list.

And what I'm going to do next is having a look at Kit's posts. It has waited for too long.


edit: xed with Kath

[Thinlómien]

Kath doing a Kitalysis too? Excellent. Having two different analyses or summaries is always better than just one.

Originally Posted by Kath

Oh, and might I say having only just noticed - Lommy ... Kathie? Please no. Kat, Kath, Kate, Katy, Katherine, oy you, any of them, but please don't make me sound like some middle aged person trying to sound young!

Sorry, I obviously had no idea it has that kind of sound to you...

Kitanna about others
#28 Legate is sort of innocent & helpful, I am sort of innocent, Samwise, Gwath and Gollum are in the middle and are restating stuff Legate said.
#33 Says to Gwath that restating stuff is muddying the waters. Asks Rune if he can clarify why does he think I might be trying to trick other villagers.
#35 Clarifies her wording for Nog who didn't understand her.
#41 Thanks Rune for clarifying, says my list may mean absolutely nothing but might come in handy later, notes that Kath, Groin and Di haven't appeared yet.
#57 Questions Sam's behaviour, argues with Legate, asks Gollum to give grounds for why he thinks I'm acting queerly.
#68 Says she finds Sam a little suspicious, replies to Nogrod.
#71 Votes Kath randomly.

Others about Kitanna
Me in #21 - don't like her way of just popping in to say hi. I say she could be a wolf trying to maintain a presence, (but I don't really think that way).
Gwath in #30 - is offended byt Kit saying he's merely restating stuff.
Nogrod #34 - is puzzled about her, says her sayings are interesting. Wonders if she's looking for easy lynches (Sam, Gwath, Golly) and says that if he'd have to vote right then he'd vote Sam or Kit.
Rune #36 - answers her question.
Legate #38 - replied to her saying he's helpful.
Sam #40 - says she's probably innocent.
Legate #42 - is not sure about her.
Legate #46 - gets what she meant about my list.
Nogrod #67 - says she feels innnocentish but has reservations.
Legate #72 - says he won't vote her.
Kath #78 - says she seems bit time limited. What???

And that's it.

I couldn't note anything special she said/did that would look like a reason to her death, unless you discount the fact that she's very smart. She wasn't the only smart person in this village, though, so that's a bad reason...

Okay, what about those contacts then? Difficult to say. At least I don't think she talks seerishly about anyone's guilt or innocence. There's no one that should be afraid of her future attacks and thus want to remove her either as she doesn't really suspect anyone strongly. I can't think of anyone who would have any other special reason to kill her either. So I think the reason lies elsewhere. Maybe she was just killed in order to confuse us or leave no tracks.

edit: xed with everybody since my last post

[Kath]

Samwise:

Arrived pretty early on and began disecting Eomer's narrations. Said 'at the risk of becoming prominent'. I didn't think much about that yesterDay but now given then knowledge of his role I wonder whether a wolf might have picked up on it.

Lommy says she recalls spotting him as a wolf before - possibly setting herself up with something to fall back on if she's a wolf and needs a scapegoat.

Kitanna has him as undecided in her thoughts, maybe she was simply a kill with no trail.

Ah! Nogrod noticed the prominent thing - but I think put a different interpretation on it.

Has as suspicious: Legate, Rune, Brinn, Lommy, Shasta , Nogrod

Has as innocent: Gwath, Kitanna

The rest he seems pretty unsure about. Then votes Brinn because he doesn't want to wonder why the baddies would leave her alive. It's odd reasoning for a vote to me ... I can see why this would have made him suspicious to innocents and interesting to wolves.

Legate went straight from Samwise not standing out to suddenly doing so for being contrary, voting safely (I must disagree here, if the person was a safe vote the manner of it certainly wasn't!), repeating that we shouldn't focus on the prophecy. I'm not quite sure I understand his being contrary thing - especially that quote he has about Gwath. Gwath shows independent thinking and is applauded for that by being thought of as innocent - hardly seems being nice with a twist of suspicion. Perhaps this is Day 1 suspicion, making the most of the little you have - or it may be me reading it with the knowledge of the outcome.

Nog still making a big thing about 'prominent' and Samwise's answer to that being picked up. I think the confusion must result from the language barrier because it seems obvious to me that Samwise was saying he had been worried about getting noticed for having too much content in his post and then found that Nogrod picked him up for not having enough in there to warrant the prominent comment. Given, say, Lommy's post which I think came before Samwise's I can see his point somewhat if he'd only seen character based babble before posting.

Kitanna had some very good points on Samwise's vote. Why was Brinn being left alive any more important than anyone else being left alive. He can have had no more information than anyone else unless the Ranger had powers we don't know about.

Legate says he's likely to vote Samwise.

Now, having focused on Samwise earlier, Nog suddenly puts him in the same category as me when trying to work out his role, simply giving him a 'so?' which seems pretty odd.

Kitanna repeats that Samwise looks odd but decides that the recklessness of the vote means he is unlikely to be a wolf.

Really odd reasoning from Legate about his vote. He had reasons for voting Samwise, and yet felt it necessary to explain why he was discounting everyone else. If Samwise was the only person he had real suspicions of, why go through the motions?

Nogrod is now suddenly back to having Samwise as a possible wolf when he'd previously been a huh?

Legate votes Samwise.

Nogrod votes Samwise.

Soo, from this. Lommy, Kitanna, Nogrod and Legate were the only ones who had any real contact with him or spoke much about him. Lommy I'm unsure about here, I don't think she interacted with him enough to bother looking at it in great depth. Kitanna I am inclined to think actually may have thought Samwise was Gifted and backed off once she'd figured that out. Legate is consistent and does find adequate reasons for suspicion, I don't like his vote explanation but that could just be his style. Nogrod I don't like for his flip-flopping.

So out of the two that voted for him I would put Nog as the wolvish one, but I wouldn't discount Legate.

Right, off to look at Kitanna, hopefully will get that done before dinner.

Oh, and might I say having only just noticed - Lommy ... Kathie? Please no. Kat, Kath, Kate, Katy, Katherine, oy you, any of them, but please don't make me sound like some middle aged person trying to sound young!

[Kath]

Kitanna:

Popped in with a quick hello.

Lommy mentions automatic suspicion of anyone who just pops in with said quick hello. I understand that (and hey, liking me being the exception to the rule ), and she was summarising the grand total of 15 odd posts.

Kitanna says can't get much out of Lommy because she's suspicious of everyone, and that while Legate is being helpful she thinks he is too bogged down in analysis of the narration. Nevertheless she thinks them both pretty innocent. Wonders if Samwise, Gwath and Gaunt were simply bandwaggoning.

Gwath (I think jokingly) complains about Kitanna not appreciating his originality.

Kitanna sort of () apologises to Gwath but reiterates her point - and it was a fair one.

Nog says Kitanna's first post worries him as it's a 'here I am' one. Basically repeats her next post adding no information on why the mention of Lommy worries him. Says he didn't get why Legate would be the one to crack the narration when everyone else has looked at it too, despite the fact that Kitanna was clearly of the opinion that Legate pretty much started the analysis and the others followed on and that Legate had tried the hardest. This may not be correct but it was where she was coming from.

Kitanna explains herself to Nogrod.

Kitanna and Rune get into a bit of a muddle with Kitanna thinking Rune is questioning Lommy when in fact he's poking Nogrod.

Legate questions the 'fodder' comment about Lommy - good questions actually.

Samwise lists her as innocent.

Explains her Lommy stuff to Legate. The explanation is pretty odd really.

Which Legate then picks up on. Forms some options for the oddness, doesn't jump straight to assuming she's a wolf for it which speaks of restraint on his part. Careful wolf? Especially as he then completely clears her. I wonder if he thought the comment was a Seer-hint? Could be a nice double bluff if so.

Lommy says Kitanna is the only one who has really been suspected which really isn't the case when you look at how people were treating Samwise. As well as that Lommy herself had been under some suspicion. It's just an odd thing to say it when it clearly wasn't the case. Says she'd rather Kitanna stayed alive - covering her bases because she planned to kill her that Night?

Kitanna states her worries about Samwise's vote and disagrees with Legate about it having been a safe one. Also questions Gollum about why Lommy is suspicious.

Nogrod says Kitanna feels innocent but leaves himself something of an out relating to the one post of hers he didn't like.

Kitanna clears Samwise from her voting possibilities with good reason and continues to argue with Nogrod. Also says she's likely to random vote - quite possible that thanks to her having left herself with no suspicions and then voting randomly she signed her own death warrant.

Votes me out of a hat.

Ok, I'm thinking it's probable that out of whatever list the wolves had of possible kills last Night Kitanna would definitely have been on it due to her unfortunate tying up of loose ends in her penultimate post. However, I think Lommy's behaviour toward Kitanna was somewhat suspicious. The way Legate acted makes him seem more innocent to me, he was arguing solidly with good reasoning. Nog is being very 'oh it could be this but then' which I'm not sure is like him, and he seems to be misunderstanding a lot of things this game. Could be a tactic.

I have to go eat now because my stomach has been complaining all through this post! I will return to look at toDay in the light of yesterDay and to vote.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nog says Kitanna's first post worries him as it's a 'here I am' one. Basically repeats her next post adding no information on why the mention of Lommy worries him.

Legate questions the 'fodder' comment about Lommy - good questions actually.

Are we reading the same thread Kath? In the thread I have before my eyes I ask Kit about that "fodder" -thingy about Lommy and Kit answers my question about it. Only after that Legate makes his comment about it, starting it with "When I saw this, I wanted to ask you about it, and even though Nogrod did too and you answered"...

Also the way you let us understand that Kit suddenly realised Sam was a gifted and shut her mouth (but Nogrod went on lynching him because of that) has just plain malice in it. Who of you really thought Sam was a gifted, hand on your heart, yesterDay?

Originally Posted by Kath

Kitanna clears Samwise from her voting possibilities with good reason and continues to argue with Nogrod.

That was no arguing, she explained her post as I had asked for an explanation. Look at it.

Nog is being very 'oh it could be this but then' which I'm not sure is like him, and he seems to be misunderstanding a lot of things this game. Could be a tactic.

Kath misunderstanding people - could be a tactic
Kath misquoting the thread - could be a tactic
Kath misinterpreting people - could be a tactic
Kath choosing which things to quote - could be a tactic.

Wonderful arguments, aren't they?

Although I'd like to hear where I have misunderstood something? Even more so if you think that has been tactical...

Oh my, yet again a host of posts done while I've been fact-checking...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Lommy says Kitanna is the only one who has really been suspected which really isn't the case when you look at how people were treating Samwise. As well as that Lommy herself had been under some suspicion. It's just an odd thing to say it when it clearly wasn't the case. Says she'd rather Kitanna stayed alive - covering her bases because she planned to kill her that Night?

(Oh, of course. Looks like I skipped that post in my summary. I'm not used to reading ww thread so that I don't skip my own posts.) What I said about Kit was just how I saw the situation. Too bad if it was faulty. (I'm not even sure if it was, but I don't think it's a thing that merits checking.) But really, why would I intentionally mis-state something if I was a wolf? The odds of getting caught are pretty high and the profits are small.

I don't really know what to think of Groin's sudden change of opinion. Seems rather fishy, if you ask me. I mean, he stops suspecting Nogrod because other people don't? Huh? And then he starts suspecting me with rather questionable grounds. I appreciate he reasons his sayings but I don't agree with what he says about me. I know I don't (didn't ) really suspect anyone, but that just sometimes happens. And I think it's a bad reason to suspect someone who's critical. Being uncritical is far more questionable, if you ask me. Groin seems also a bit too easily charmed by helpfulness: it doesn't even look like it's his honest reaction to "helpful posting" but like using the argument as a means of exonerating a few people easily. (Could be even exonerating fellow wolves, who knows.) I didn't suspect Groin at all before this, I think people were misundertasning his campaign against Nogrod, but with a few post Groin managed to make it to my top suspect. Great.


edit: xed with Legate and Kath

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nogrod I don't like for his flip-flopping.

Let's not bring the U.S. presidental election soundbites from 2004 into a WW game...

I suspected Samwise in the beginning - after the first posts and pointed it out only to retract that a bit after looking at others and seeing other possibilities emerge as people actually posted.

Sadly, at the time of voting (at the actual DL) people who had gotten votes (one per person!) so far were:

Brinn (seemed innocent to me)
Lommy (I was very unsure about and so wouldn't lynch a player who could make a difference on Day1 for that)
Kath (even if I dislike your Day1 strategy I thought there was no reason to give you the second vote as you could be a force for good)
Mith (looked more innocent than not)
Gollum (first-timer, benefit of doubt even if I disliked the way he posted on Day1)
Shasta (Always gets lynched early + seemed to be soo uninterested in the game I thought he probably is innocent)
Sam (the one I had actually suspected earlier)

What would you have suggested me to vote for? Thrown a new name to the tally and leave it to lottery as there was no sign of Gollum or Gwath being around for hours - and they voted minutes late?

Ahh... a host of posts in... I'll continue in a bit after reading the last ones (from Lommy onwards)