Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs

[Gaunt]

Ok, I think I am starting to get the hang of this now.

As far as I can see suspicion is divided into two categories:

1. Suspicion based on heavy participation and aggressive or at least confident accuastions and public theorising (this type of suspicion seems to me what led to the lynching of Samwise and suspicions now being directed at Nogrod)

2. Suspicion based on light or non participation

Regarding the first theory, Nogrod is, it seems, the prime suspect at present. Now, judging by the other posts, he is behaving in the way he normally does when playing werewolf. However, i'm not convinced by Legate's theory below:

Although there's one thing, I don't belive Nog-wolf would pick Kitanna for a first kill. That'd really testify strongly against him in my eyes. He would pick some quiet one to "punish" him.

If he is a werewolf, wouldn't it make sense for him to kill someone who had been involved? That way he gets rid of a player who is more likely to successfully analyse his behaviour, and creates the impression of one of the quieter players lurking in the shadows, picking off the more talkative wargs. And by decrying their non-involvement and threatening to vote for them, he further polarises the group and hopes to direct suspicion on to those quieter wargs.

Even as I write this i'm not sure, but it does seem very convenient that his past reputation in the game clears him from suspicion in the eyes of some.

More thought is required.

As for the second theory, it doesn't give us much to go on - how are we too choose between the players who have not been heavily involved? The only way I can think is by anlysing the posts they have made explaining why they have not, or will not, be posting very much. But I for one would not be confident enough to make a prediction based on this