Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs

[Gwathagor]

Day 1 Voting
Sam -> Brinniel (Brinniel 1)
Mithalwen -> Thinlomien (Thinlomien 1, Brinniel 1)
Kitanna -> Kath (Kath 1, Thinlomien 1, Brinniel 1)
Rune -> Mithalwen (Mithalwen 1, Kath 1, Thinlomien 1, Brinniel 1)
Kath -> Gollum (Gollum 1, Mithalwen 1, Kath 1, Thinlomien 1, Brinniel 1)
Thinlomien -> Shasta (Shasta 1, Gollum 1, Mithalwen 1, Kath 1, Thinlomien 1, Brinniel 1)
Legate -> Sam (Sam 1, Shasta 1, Gollum 1, Mithalwen 1, Kath 1, Thinlomien 1, Brinniel 1)
Nogrod -> Sam (Sam 2, Shasta 1, Gollum 1, Mithalwen 1, Kath 1, Thinlomien 1, Brinniel 1)
Gwathagor -> Kath (Kath 2, Sam 2, Shasta 1, Gollum 1, Mithalwen 1, Thinlomien 1, Brinniel 1)
Gollum -> Thinlomien (Thinlomien 2, Kath 2, Sam 2, Shasta 1, Gollum 1, Mithalwen 1, Thinlomien 1, Brinniel 1)


I am inclined to think that those who voted against SamGam (Legate and Nogrod) could very well be innocent. Because yesterDay's votes were cast over a broad field, and two other people received the same number of votes as Sam, I do not see any necessary malice or bandwaggoning in Sam's death.

In particular, I doubt that Nogrod is a traitor (I can't really say "wolf"), primarily because I see the willingness to take on the attention and suspicion that comes with being the deciding vote as a sign that he honestly found Sam as likely a candidate as anyone else.

The other possibility is that Brinniel is a traitor and Nogrod was forced to kill someone else in order to save her from the lynch. Otherwise, what would be the purpose of exposing onesself so early on, when it would be equally easy to hide in an obscure vote?