Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Diamond18 · 06-07-2008, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I also just pondered the possibility of Rikae being the EW, but then she'd have very little reason to anything like she just did. Or not any reason I can quickly think of.

See my below response to Roa. The EW has way more reason to do this than an actual GW. The more I think about it, the clearer it gets.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa

Or Rikae may be trying to save Cailin because Rikae is the GW an knows that Cailin is innocent. Don't be hasty on that front.

I'm not. If you'll see, I said that between Cailin and Legate, I find Cailin more evil. C and L had been getting the most suspicion, it seemed, with Rikae being gungho on Legate and phantom/Gwath being gun-ho on Cailin. The GW would want to step in to save good Cailin and get evil Legate lynched, but is that so wise? So early in the day? The GW loses more by revealing.

The EW (gains more by revealing, deflecting suspicion from a wolf, and getting the village to waste a lynch on an innocent or waste it on a Wizard who can't be killed.

Roa_Aoife · 06-07-2008, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diamond18

See my below response to Roa. The EW has way more reason to do this than an actual GW. The more I think about it, the clearer it gets.

I'm not. If you'll see, I said that between Cailin and Legate, I find Cailin more evil. C and L had been getting the most suspicion, it seemed, with Rikae being gungho on Legate and phantom/Gwath being gun-ho on Cailin. The GW would want to step in to save good Cailin and get evil Legate lynched, but is that so wise? So early in the day? The GW loses more by revealing.

The EW (gains more by revealing, deflecting suspicion from a wolf, and getting the village to waste a lynch on an innocent or waste it on a Wizard who can't be killed.

Di, stop and think. Wolves are replaceable. The EW would not do this to save a wolf. Especially not Rikae, who has totally agreed with me in that past about sacrificing our fellows. (I've been a wolf with her.)

The EW gains nothing by this move. If we lynch Legate, and he's innocent, then we know that she is evil, and she can't go on in secret making more and more wolves. Why risk a possible two or three or even four more wolves to save the life of one? It isn't logical, and it isn't the way Rikae thinks.

Roa_Aoife · 06-07-2008, 12:35 PM

Phantom and Di's exuberance in trying to turn this back to Cailin has me rather convinced. As Lommy said, it's simplest lynch Legate or Rikae. Lynching Cailin won't answer any questions for us.

I can think of two reasons the GW may have revealed:

She wanted to save an innocent.

She wanted to give us a wolf while everyone was still around to vote on the matter.

It's possible that both are true. It's also possible that Rikae is a gifted posing as the GW to achieve both these ends.

Phantom and Di's reluctance to accept that this is a possibility concerns me greatly. Especially phantom. Because that just makes want to believe in Rikae even more.

Roa_Aoife · 06-07-2008, 12:37 PM

I can't hang around at the moment, but I'll be back in intervals checking in. To people who AREN'T so hell-bent on getting Cailin, please consider all the possibilities before you simply mistrust Rikae.

Celuien · 06-07-2008, 01:04 PM

Oh my goodness.

This is certainly a very confusing turn of events... and none of it really makes sense to me at all. At this point in the game, the village is down by one gifted with Mac's death last night - we only have a hunter and seer. Against four wolves. So with those numbers, it doesn't make sense for the GW to reveal - it would make more sense to try and get another gifted in the roster. Especially since there's no dueling allowed until toMorrow. And again, why reveal to the EW when there's no way that the EW could have found out who the GW is without a reveal? So, no, this doesn't make sense to me at all.

At the same time, I can't think of any good motives to impersonate the GW either... there didn't seem to be any indication that the GW was going to be flushed out of hiding (unless I missed something in my rather cursory skimming of the last few pages). All it does is cause distraction and confusion - look at us all sitting here and debating what the reveal means!

Now, it would make sense for a wolf to try to cause this kind of distraction. I think that this might be the most logical explanation. The EW may have given instructions to cause confusion today - and I've seen some gifted impersonation in the past by tricksy werewolves, so this would fit the pattern.

I don't think there's any attempt to shield Cailin involved. Wolves are fairly expendable so long as the EW is around... And it makes no sense at all for the EW to protect a replaceable wolf with such a dramatic gesture, so I think that excludes a Rikae/Cailin wolf/EW combination. I also don't think they are both wolves because I still hold to the theory that the EW wouldn't necessarily tell the wolves each other's identities while the GW could potentially unscry one of them to become an ordo, and then end up with (at least part) of the pack given away.

So, after all that, I think that Rikae is probably bad to the bone because she's the one doing the distracting right now. Despite the timing of the reveal, I don't think it tells us anything one way or the other about Cailin for reasons given above. At this point, I'm very inclined to vote for Rikae. If she's telling the truth about being the GW, we can't lynch her anyway - and she'll still have tonight to give one last gifted - and we won't change the duel tomorrow if we confirm her identity. If she's lying, we've rid ourselves of another nasty wolf. But I'll lurk a little longer before casting my vote.

Roa_Aoife · 06-07-2008, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phantom

Lommy, remember that WerePenguin game? Remember the way Boro and Ang set off my alarms from the get-go. That's how I'm feeling with Cailin.

As I recall, I was the only one cally for Boromir's lynch on Day 1, until the seer, who was almost lynched, came forward and confirmed what I was saying. Stop taking credit for my work. :P

Roa_Aoife · 06-07-2008, 01:13 PM

I find it amusing that most of the people who have raised my suspicions are the ones for lynching Rikae.

06-07-2008, 12:35 PM	#3
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Phantom and Di's exuberance in trying to turn this back to Cailin has me rather convinced. As Lommy said, it's simplest lynch Legate or Rikae. Lynching Cailin won't answer any questions for us. I can think of two reasons the GW may have revealed: She wanted to save an innocent. She wanted to give us a wolf while everyone was still around to vote on the matter. It's possible that both are true. It's also possible that Rikae is a gifted posing as the GW to achieve both these ends. Phantom and Di's reluctance to accept that this is a possibility concerns me greatly. Especially phantom. Because that just makes want to believe in Rikae even more. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

06-07-2008, 12:37 PM	#4
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	I can't hang around at the moment, but I'll be back in intervals checking in. To people who AREN'T so hell-bent on getting Cailin, please consider all the possibilities before you simply mistrust Rikae. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

06-07-2008, 01:04 PM	#5
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	Oh my goodness. This is certainly a very confusing turn of events... and none of it really makes sense to me at all. At this point in the game, the village is down by one gifted with Mac's death last night - we only have a hunter and seer. Against four wolves. So with those numbers, it doesn't make sense for the GW to reveal - it would make more sense to try and get another gifted in the roster. Especially since there's no dueling allowed until toMorrow. And again, why reveal to the EW when there's no way that the EW could have found out who the GW is without a reveal? So, no, this doesn't make sense to me at all. At the same time, I can't think of any good motives to impersonate the GW either... there didn't seem to be any indication that the GW was going to be flushed out of hiding (unless I missed something in my rather cursory skimming of the last few pages). All it does is cause distraction and confusion - look at us all sitting here and debating what the reveal means! Now, it would make sense for a wolf to try to cause this kind of distraction. I think that this might be the most logical explanation. The EW may have given instructions to cause confusion today - and I've seen some gifted impersonation in the past by tricksy werewolves, so this would fit the pattern. I don't think there's any attempt to shield Cailin involved. Wolves are fairly expendable so long as the EW is around... And it makes no sense at all for the EW to protect a replaceable wolf with such a dramatic gesture, so I think that excludes a Rikae/Cailin wolf/EW combination. I also don't think they are both wolves because I still hold to the theory that the EW wouldn't necessarily tell the wolves each other's identities while the GW could potentially unscry one of them to become an ordo, and then end up with (at least part) of the pack given away. So, after all that, I think that Rikae is probably bad to the bone because she's the one doing the distracting right now. Despite the timing of the reveal, I don't think it tells us anything one way or the other about Cailin for reasons given above. At this point, I'm very inclined to vote for Rikae. If she's telling the truth about being the GW, we can't lynch her anyway - and she'll still have tonight to give one last gifted - and we won't change the duel tomorrow if we confirm her identity. If she's lying, we've rid ourselves of another nasty wolf. But I'll lurk a little longer before casting my vote. __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff. Last edited by Celuien; 06-07-2008 at 01:07 PM. Reason: Crossed with everything starting with Roa at post #790

06-07-2008, 01:13 PM	#7
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	I find it amusing that most of the people who have raised my suspicions are the ones for lynching Rikae. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

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