Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[the phantom]

considering you haven't had a word to say about me till now

Actually, I did. From my first post of the day-

3) I'm a bit suspicious of Shasta.

That was before you had even posted anything today, so I know I saw something yesterday that I didn't like.

I'll look for it after lunch.

[Kath]

Right! I'm fed, watered and battery-full, and all earlier than I expected so I shall at least finish the page I was on before.

Day 1, page 2, part two:

Legate - little confused over his comment on morm, as he says 'no don't look at things through the EW's eyes' but then says 'but actually, why not?'. Agrees with Roa's side, that we should focus on the wolves but more generally just go for anyone who looks suspicious which, of course, agrees with what was said earlier. Some suspicion of Volo for not being quite himself. Perhaps, if Legate is not a wolf/EW himself, this is what they picked up on. Also wariness of Greenie and Gwath though no reasoning there. Disagrees with sally about phantom.

Agan - thinks phantom's words look a bit planned. Thinks Brinn suspicious for being 'certain' about the wolves not communicating. I'm not sure about that, Brinn had been summing things up in that post I believe so I don't think she was certain about it, it was just the consensus most people had reached. Puts Ka, phantom, sally, Gwath and Brinn on the suspicion list. There is reasoning for most of it but it does look a little forced in places. It was Day 1 so it's sort of understandable but it's still a little odd. Thinks Durelin is trying too hard to build a case against her.

sally - votes phantom because he bothers her the most. I'd say this is like someone playing with a suicidal Nilp for the first time, the sheer unfamiliarity breeds suspicion. That's not to say though that she isn't right, again thinking about Nilp it's occurred before that a newcomer has seen right through him where oldtimers haven't.

Roa - makes a good point. She has done this before, her experience is important for us to think about. Again I think she's taken the phantom's post a little wrong, with the 'there are no wolves' thing. The way he puts it is useless but I don't think he's saying that there's no way to find them, simply that he doesn't think it as important to find them.

Gwath - votes sally, no reasoning.

Durelin - thinks Cailin's list useless. Well, yes, it was really, but it probably gave her a way to focus the way she thinks about the village. That's why I do these after all. Thinks Ka isn't bein interesting enough, nor sally, and is bothered by Agan. Mentions phantom possibly being the EW. Sadly, the problem is that anyone could be the EW. Either phantom who is playing it so loudly or Nilp who barely speaks. You could make a case for being the EW against practically anyone. This is why I'd prefer to look for the wolves, yes you could do the same with them but you generally have something more to go on. Thinks Agan is being too defensive, I wouldn't have said so, she replied to an accusation quite calmly.

Mac - has Shasta, Cailin and Roa as suspects, little real reasoning.


Hmm, there's quite a fight brewing between Durelin and Agan there too, it's just overshadowed some by Roa and phantom. I'm having a think about Mac as well, I think something earlier struck me as a little off, I might check that out.

[Kath]

Ah, just saw this:

Something else... Kath, no offense intended, but are you sure your posts today are very helpful? It's a lot to read, but there's actually rather little new to learn from them...

Now who said I was trying to be helpful to others? These are mostly for my benefit, if anyone else gets something from them then good but it's not necessary. Also, maybe there's not a lot new to be learned, indeed there won't be much as it is often a summary with me commenting where I find something to comment on, but then I suppose it's giving you some information about me. I am sorry that it's a lot to read, I find that myself.

[the phantom]

Izzy- I don't think you quite understand the last portion of my no-vote explanation. Perhaps I didn't explain well.

Originally Posted by me

I actually had my vote typed out and everything (it was for Nerwen but I had Agan's name ready to paste just in case) and was ready to post it in the final seconds, but when I refreshed my other window I saw that Nog had already posted so I figured I wouldn't bother.

I was actually going to vote at the very end. I was going to post it. It was going to be in time.

But Nog went ahead and ended the day. If you'll look at the time on his post, it is 11:00 PM GMT. In other words, he cut the thread off before the actual deadline for voting (11:01 PM GMT).

Originally Posted by Nog

All those votes with the marking 11.00 PM GMT will be counted. All those going over it will not be counted.

[mormegil]

++Brinniel

Same reason as yesterday, she's not sitting right with me. I promise to get fairly caught up once life calms down a bit. I've been hit with far too many things lately.

[Isabellkya]

That is all well and good, but why do you need to push the rules?
The deadline is there for a reason, usually when people say any votes with the deadline timestamp on them will be counted, is for those last second/minute votes to slip in.
I don't believe it is intended for someone to plan ahead, to make their vote at the exact deadline time.

It still does not explain why you chose to wait to vote, and thus did not vote at all. You had time to vote - nearly 23 hours; yes you were in some amount of danger of being executed, however in the last ten minutes - Nerwen and Aganzir were in more danger than you.

[Celuien]

5 more pages? I don't know how I'm going to catch up on this. I guess I'm just glad I made it back in time to read some of it. *sigh*

That's exactly what I'm going to do. Be back in a moment.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The way Greenie starts suspecting tp looks a bit forced to me, yet is less suspicious than the fact that she's still seemingly indecisive about people. It reminds me of a wolf who doesn't know her fellows.

Does everyone make you feel this way? It's just I've noticed you've been saying that line a lot during this game...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think Legate's wavering with his vote was suspicious, but I was already suspicious of him. You on the other hand found his vote strange yesterday, yet today you raised the issue just a bit and immediately downplayed the possibility that his vote was wolfish.

Okay, when I was reading what you wrote last night I thought you were meaning the exact opposite.
Anyways, I don't think I completely downplaying the possibility of a wolfish vote there. When I wrote "Only if the EW told him to..." I was still considering it was possible. Honestly, I'm just flat out unsure whether Legate's vote was actually wolfish or an innocent's mistake.

Coming soon: A post on my thoughts of all the players. It may take awhile, but hopefully it'll help me come up with a voting candidate.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I'd much rather see a continuation of the Lommy versus Agan battle.

I have a feeling I'm being... an object.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, just so everyone knows, I haven't read through everything, because I don't have time. (I've got 15 minutes from now, which is 12:56 PM PT).

First, phantom, you're statistics aren't even logical, because you leave out : a. the hunter, b. the ranger, and c. the EW herself, who might change a gifted into an ordo instead of an ordo into a gifted, thus keeping the wolf population down.

Second, those who think losing the seer isn't such a bad thing, consider what would happen if it was Day 4 and the EW knew the GW's identity. She could then challenge and take the GW out before she had a chance to replace the seer, and the village would be in trouble. Who was saying that again?

Third, for everyone who is concerned that I'm focusing too much on phantom, well, duh. I am thoroughly convinced he's evil. Why should I look at people I am uncertain of when I have one that I am certain of right in front of me? I mean, even now, he's gone from saying, "I think you're innocent and don't want to lynch you," to "I think Roa's a wolf trying to get me. Let's lynch her."

Fourth, I have a feeling that this is the last time I will be able to do this, because I may well be killed or wolf-ified and then lynched to discredit me, (as I did with Valier), so here:

The EW:

In the last game, I took care to avoid people that might be scried by the GW, not so much because I was worried about losing a wolf (until morm accidentally found me out) but because if we scried the same people on the same Night, my identity would be revealed. That is not the case this game. If the wolf doesn't know anything, then losing him to the GW may not be so bad. However, if the GW and the EW scry the same person in a Night, that person dies. This is a third kill for the evil team! The GW is the one who will be avoiding scrying possible EW picks in order to keep innocents from dying. (Which, by the way, is why I believe the phantom will not be picked by the GW.)

So lose the mentality that the EW won't pick likely GW scries for scrying. It will only mislead you into to looking away from those that could be wolves. Until we know who the EW is, we have no way of knowing who they might have picked. YOU CANNOT RULE ANYONE OUT FOR THE REASON THAT THEY ARE UNLIKELY PICKS. The EW may have very well counted on that thinking. Until we know who the EW is, you must look at everyone with equal possibility.

Finally, even if you don't think anything I said about phantom has merit, please, please, go back and look at what I said about the EW and her possible behavior.

I have to go. Honestly, it might be better if you lynch me toDay. ToMorrow, I may be a wolf, and then you won't know what to trust, and what I said that was helpful or a lie. I'm not so worried about being wolf-ified to save phantom, but more that it will cause people to mistrust the advice I've given regarding the EW.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

But Nog went ahead and ended the day. If you'll look at the time on his post, it is 11:00 PM GMT. In other words, he cut the thread off before the actual deadline for voting (11:01 PM GMT).

If you had voted at 11.00 and it would have read in your post your vote would have been counted in even if I had posted before at the same minute.

I'll promise to send the deadline post at 11.01 toDay so it looks neater if someone posts on 11.00.

But the rule is clear: All those votes with the marking 11.00 PM GMT will be counted. All those posted later will not be counted.


That also means that we continue going with the 'Downs time even if it seems now to be more like 4-5 minutess off.

[Diamond18]

DEAR GOD.

I started reading this like an hour and a half ago. I was fresh and ready to form opinions, now I'm tired and I want to curl up in a corner and whimper. I knew I should have gotten up earlier today to read posts, but there were epic, violent thunderstorms for several hours this morning which kept me up.

At least I have three hours to give it some thought. But based on my initial readthrough... wow, Roa and phantom were in rare form last night. I've seen people saying how we should ignore them. Frankly this whole argument (which is about as epic and violent as the thunderstorms) makes me just die to know who and what they both are. On the other hand, it's the most entertaining stuff going on around here (I mean, I'd rather read a good smackdown than a by-the-numbers re-cap any day) and I'll be sorry when it's over.

So does my love of drama, or my curiosity to find out their respective identities win out?

Hmmmm.

Everyone else seems so vanilla in comparison that I'm having trouble forming opinions or focus on any of them. At least not after slogging through posts for a solid hour and a half.

I'm going to go make popcorn.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Everyone else seems so vanilla in comparison that I'm having trouble forming opinions or focus on any of them. At least not after slogging through posts for a solid hour and a half.

Stop, stop, the popularity contest won't be fun if there's such a clear favourite.

Sometimes that's what Werewolf is; so don't complain to me when you're hanging there.

[satansaloser2005]

Holy buckets! So many posts! Stop it, geez, you're going to give me a coronary!

*skims as quickly as possible*


Okay, a few people are bothering me, but I'm not ready to vote yet as I've just given them an essentially cursory inspection....and stuff....

Phantom's beating the tar out of Madam Roa and vice versa, which I think is a little over the top, but since it's Phantom and I'm actually (sort of hehe) getting used to him now I'm all right with it for now.

Cabbie is quiet. Too quiet. Or have I missed his posts?

Let's see....who else? Grandpa Shasta, don't feel bad. I get suspected for being helpful too. It makes life fun.

Ummmm....snap I've got like five minutes. I know how Leggie feels....too much to sift through at the moment.

At the moment, and this is subject to and in fact probably will change, I'm leaning toward voting Cabbie due to his....well, due to nothing; that's the problem. He's suspicious based on the fact that he's not suspicious. Does that make sense? Didn't think so.

Bye for now! I'll read everything hopefully, but my vote post will be quick and painless, if I can squeeze one in at all. *mutters*



EDIT: crud. x'd with Grandma Izzy and my sis