Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Diamond18]

Naturally, the EW is from Greenie's family thus the wanton killing of everyone from Volo's side of the gene pool. I say we lynch everyone who is a descendant of Greenie and Shasta!

Oh wait... they're my grandparents.

Scrap that. Obviously the EW is from Volo's family and wants to frame the Greenie/Shasta line!

Wow. So after spending three hours reading over the entire 5 page post-a-thon, this is the more brilliant stuff I can come up with. That's a dissolute wax addict for you.

I'll be posting more toDay. You may wish I wasn't, but hey.

Phantom, why didn't you vote yesterDay? You were the last to post before the deadline but never voted. That's just bizarre.

So there were several mini-rows yesterDay. The Roa/tp row, the Legate/Mac row, the Cailin/Nerwen row. As I recall. When reading over the thread I felt the Roa/tp row to be a lot of bangs and whimpers with not a lot of... anything. Seemd like classic Day1 "There's not much to go on" debating about the proper way to play the game. Legate/Mac was entertaining, but nothing overly suspicious pinged me about it.

I found myself coming down on the Cailin side of the Caillie/Nerwen row. Possibly because I like Cailin's list post and found it better reading than the umpteenth "No THIS is how we should all be playing" post. Sure, lists can misdirect, and may not tell you much about the village, but they tell you a lot about the person making the list. Whether they're lying, joking, or killing time, I don't think they're a horrid "waste of time." (Stats, on the other hand, make me snore. Sorry, bro.)

Of course, Nerwen proved innocent, so obviously Cailin is EEVVVIILL. Plus she's tenuously connected to the Greenie/Shasta brood which proves either one of my points completely.

Hey, don't laugh, if I was the EW (and btw, I have loads and loads of time on my hands, I'm eleven after all) I'd play around with the roles, just because all the serious players will be going, "No that's SILLY."

At any rate, I'll try to live up to your assessment of me, Cail, my sort of a distant aunt by marriage. Too many offenses to last past Day4. I loved it. Haha. (I think I've only ever been lynched once though, in all the many games I've played.)

[Diamond18]

Forty minutes past the deadline and I'm the first post? Hnuh?

I'll never beat the 5 page Day 1 stat on my own. I mean I could try but things would get really schizo. I'd have to start creating make believe players, Diamond01, Diamond02, and so on. (The EW is Diamond06, and the GW is Diamond07, btw.)

[the phantom]

Phantom, why didn't you vote yesterDay?

Where in the rules does it say you have to vote?

Originally Posted by ModGod

If someone doesn't post on two Days in a row there will be a modfire removing that player from the game in a shameful manner.

I see a posting requirement, but no voting requirement.

Anyway, last night didn't go too well. But seriously it could've been worse. WWs killing the Seer isn't nearly so bad in this stage of the game.

Day 2s are much better than Day 1s. We actually have kills and such to look back at!

Here are some quick thoughts on yesterday-

1) What's with the Lommy-Agan thing? Surely there's something to it?

2) Roa is innocent I believe. At least she was yesterday.

3) I'm a bit suspicious of Shasta.

4) Every time I reread things I completely flip positions on Legate.

5) Green looks pretty good.

6) I think Sally was probably innocent yesterday.

7) I'm not sure what to think of Dur and Ka exactly, but I kind of like them.

8) Some people need to talk more.

That's all I really have time for. I have to leave right away. I'll only be gone for two or three hours though. See ya.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Where in the rules does it say you have to vote?

*smack*

Did I ask about the rules?

I see a posting requirement, but no voting requirement.

Which completely avoids my question... and makes erroneous assumptions about my reasons for asking it. I was interested in your reason for not voting, not whether or not you technically had to.

But little matter, since you answered Ka. Or rather, elaborated on her hypothesis.

Bored with that topic, now.

Perhaps I'll make a list. I have no idea what to put on that list, though. Oh wait --

What Diamond Thinks:

1. Volo was the seer.
2. He voted for Aganzir.
3. Aganzir is evil!
4. Lynch her! Dance in her blood!
5. Volo probably didn't dream about her, anyway.
6. But I do so wish for a good blood-dance.

I'll be back.

[Lhunardawen]

Whoa. the phantom is just about the only person I know with Seer-hunting capabilities like this. The other I'm sure of is Kuru - he must be a wolf!

Seriously, I'm not sure my betrothed is a wolf. He's too noisy, he'll just get himself killed. I'm a wee bit certain I'm engaged to a wizard, but we'll see.

Okay, so why Volo? I mean seriously, that was one mean kill. Out of more than 20, they got him?

If I remember right someone said something about him posting differently. I'll try to *sigh* crawl through yesterDay's posts and see if that says something. Gosh, really. 6 pages in a day. I almost want to die already.

[Roa_Aoife]

Why are they killing off my family?!?!?! First Nogrod, then Nerwen, then Volo and Kitanna! Hide yourselves, Legate and Brinn! Quickly!

Okay, I'm just checking in. I'll be back after I go back through the thread. I'm going to look at where that Nerwen suspicion started, since she didn't ring any alarm bells from me the first time through. Of course, I was in a hurry, and so might have missed some things.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Why are they killing off my family?!?!?! First Nogrod, then Nerwen, then Volo and Kitanna! Hide yourselves, Legate and Brinn! Quickly!

Indeed. I think I speak for my dear sister as well when I say that if you touch our loves, you're in some seriously deep trouble. (And Legate darling, by the way, you best explain your little bit of flipflopping yesterday, voting Agan and yet not wanting her killed. Acting like that could get you lynched, and you know I wouldn't want that)

[the phantom]

And Phantom, why DIDN'T you vote yesterday?

See post #248.

Why did Volo and Kit die?

I'll try and look at that later. Not sure if I'll get to it tonight or if I'll have to do it in the morning.

Whoa. the phantom is just about the only person I know with Seer-hunting capabilities like this.

Ha ha! Thanks, sweetie.

But Seer hunting skills are pretty much worthless in this village- at least while the Wizards are still around. There's no need for the Seer to drop hints and such, or even indicate that he knows anything about anyone, for his dreams will survive him with the GW.

I'm a wee bit certain I'm engaged to a wizard, but we'll see.

Now that would possibly be even more fun than switching sides! More pressure and all, but still fun no doubt. So much power... mwu ha ha ha!!

Hmm... Let's think here... if I am indeed a Wizard and your finger-pointing leads the other Wizard to discover me... well, that seems almost suicidal on your part, cause you know I'd feel like killing you then.

So that makes me think you don't really believe it, or that you wouldn't mind dying to expose a Wizard. But which one do you think you are exposing, eh? If you think I'm the GW then you're probably evil. If you think I'm the EW then you must be aware that I will kill you, thus I seriously doubt that you are gifted (a gifted would not take that sort of risk).

So that makes you an excellent lynch choice by my book. Tread carefully, dearie. I don't particularly want my fiance dead.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

See post #248.

I'll try and look at that later. Not sure if I'll get to it tonight or if I'll have to do it in the morning.

Ha ha! Thanks, sweetie.

But Seer hunting skills are pretty much worthless in this village- at least while the Wizards are still around. There's no need for the Seer to drop hints and such, or even indicate that he knows anything about anyone, for his dreams will survive him with the GW.

Now that would possibly be even more fun than switching sides! More pressure and all, but still fun no doubt. So much power... mwu ha ha ha!!

Hmm... Let's think here... if I am indeed a Wizard and your finger-pointing leads the other Wizard to discover me... well, that seems almost suicidal on your part, cause you know I'd feel like killing you then.

So that makes me think you don't really believe it, or that you wouldn't mind dying to expose a Wizard. But which one do you think you are exposing, eh? If you think I'm the GW then you're probably evil. If you think I'm the EW then you must be aware that I will kill you, thus I seriously doubt that you are gifted (a gifted would not take that sort of risk).

So that makes you an excellent lynch choice by my book. Tread carefully, dearie. I don't particularly want my fiance dead.

You leave my cousin alone....cousin! (crud, this is difficult....)

Thanks for clearing up your no-vote. Sorry I didn't see it earlier; I'm a bit tired tonight.

Randomly, Phantom, how's the weather shaping up for you? The windows keep shaking over here, but my friends aren't watching the weather anymore.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Oh, before I forget - Brinn was quite right and I was quite silly yesterDay. When I came back about 40 minutes before the deadline I really...skimmed the posts posted while I was away. I totally missed your stuff about Aganzir. I kept thinking you had only posted twice, as you mentioned in your one post. Of course that was your third post...and I didn't read it all.

Heh, that's okay. Sometimes I wonder if anyone reads my posts...

Originally Posted by Roa

I'm going to look at where that Nerwen suspicion started, since she didn't ring any alarm bells from me the first time through.

That would be Cailin with this quote:

Originally Posted by Cailin

This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.

I already mentioned my thoughts on Cailin and I do think she's a bit suspicious. And it doesn't help now that Nerwen's been proven innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

*smack*

What Diamond Thinks:

1. Volo was the seer.
2. He voted for Aganzir.
3. Aganzir is evil!
4. Lynch her! Dance in her blood!
5. Volo probably didn't dream about her, anyway.
6. But I do so wish for a good blood-dance.

Wow....and my boyfriend thought I was violent and blood-thirsty....

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

What Diamond Thinks:

1. Volo was the seer.
2. He voted for Aganzir.
3. Aganzir is evil!
4. Lynch her! Dance in her blood!
5. Volo probably didn't dream about her, anyway.
6. But I do so wish for a good blood-dance.(Di)

There were no NIGHT activity (Seer dream, etc.) on NIGHT 1, so last NIGHT was supposed to be the first dream.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

There were no NIGHT activity (Seer dream, etc.) on NIGHT 1, so last NIGHT was supposed to be the first dream.

DADDY!!!!!! I'm so happy you're safe!!!!!



And good point. I didn't think about that; there's no WAY he dreamed ANYTHING. Thanks for mentioning it. (Can we kill Agan later anyway? )

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Many people before me have made their own voting lists already; my daughter even made one with timestamps. But I want to create my own list, so I can draw ideas from them as I go along. People can say anything they like, but when one makes a vote, one commits to either a person's lynching or salvation.

Problem is, we don't know if the wolves do know each other. Many cases have been made for this, but . . . what if they do know each other? (It makes them more effective by DAY, after all, and if caught, they can explain away whatever connexions come up by saying that they can't be lupine connexions, since the wolves wouldn't know each other.) What if those saying or agreeing to the impossibility of three talking wolves are actually wolves themselves?

Hence, I will go on with my analysis. Since we only have three villagers whose roles are known, I'll focus my analysis on voting motives (why they voted) of people who joined bandwaggons (which are created to kill, after all). Times are GMT + 8. Known innocents are underlined.

08:26pm morm - Brinn (Brinn - 1)
10:24pm Sally - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 1)
10:54pm Gwath - Sally (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1)
02:25am Kit - morm (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1, morm - 1)
03:34am Nerwen - Cailín (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1)
03:48am Roa - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1)
04:44am Celu - Izzy (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1)
05:22am Rikae - morm (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1)
05:26am Izzy - Roa (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:30am Shasta - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 3, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:43am Eönwë - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:56am Cailín - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1)
05:57am Ka - Celu (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1, Celu - 1)
06:00am Greenie - Gwath (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1)
06:09am McCaber - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 2, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1)
06:10am Mac - Legate (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 2, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:15am Lal - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 3, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:28am Durelin - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 4, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:43am Lommy - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 4, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 1)
06:45am Di - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 1)
06:46am Volo - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 2)
06:53am Brinn - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 3)
06:57am Legate - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 4)
06:59am Agan - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 6, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 4)

Bandwaggons:

• The Fantine bandwaggon came up quite early, and it was not sudden - Fantine was being his usual self, provoking strong (often negative) reaction from the villagers. Interesting was Eönwë's vote (q.v.), and his previous post (q.v..) He has made one other post in the game, an in-character one. Nowhere do I see how he came to be suspicious of Fantine's motives 'the whole time'.
• The Nerwen bandwaggon was started by Cailín, who accused her of seeming to be helpful, but actually contributing nothing (qq.v. 105, 165). Most of the other who joined it, however, have less than concrete reasons for doing so (qq.v. McCaber's 175, Di's 208.)
• The Agan bandwaggon was started near the end of DAY 1 by Lommy, who thought Agan to be suspicious from the very beginning, but thought that voting for her would end up being a waste (qq.v. 183, 205.) It is the least suspicious bandwaggon to me.

More later.

[THE Ka]

Volo, the guy who knows everything about staying alive, the gaffer (Father of Nogrod, morm, Nerwen and Lalaith); The seer mutilated and eyes pulled off on Night2.

... .

Originally Posted by Di

Forty minutes past the deadline and I'm the first post? Hnuh?

No worries, I've been silently reading everything and reverting back to my old observe habit. I think others still have to show up as of yet, or they are catching up as I was.

Originally Posted by Di

but they tell you a lot about the person making the list.

They also help to muck out widely held suspicions and give the atmosphere of different players' tensions on matters, or help with predictions on the way the tide will go. After having to read ten posts at a time, I think that in this respect they are useful.

tp not voting is interesting, but if I was runner up to being killed I don't think I would be so eager to do so much either. YesterDay was particularly random as first Days go, but I hope that does give us something to analyze considering how we're short a seer now (psst GW, find it in your heart to make another seer toNight, pretty please? We're 'kind of' dying here). After reflecting on the bandwagons of yesterDay, at least they are pretty defined near the end and should tell something at least.

Okay, that's all for now from me, obviously I have more reading to do. (There Di, someone else said something, but not much. ).

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I clicked 'Submit Reply' accidentally with the above post.

[Gwathagor]

Now that's suspicious.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Now that's suspicious.

Yes, it is. Glad we understand each other.

I also happen to be the WIZARD OF APATHY.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Yes, it is. Glad we understand each other.

I also happen to be the WIZARD OF APATHY.

Hey, I thought you're the Wizard of Insanity?

Fine.

I'm the Wizard of Insanity. I challenge you to a duel.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

I clicked 'Submit Reply' accidentally with the above post.

Dork.


Ummmm, I mean, silly father of mine. Perhaps you need some sleep? I could fetch you some tea....special tea....Hold up. Who's laughing maniacally in the distance?

[Thinlómien]

Okay, hello everybody, I'm finally here. (I was just planning to go to see friends after school but we got an ex tempore idea to go to see Blackmore's Night live, so I only got home now.) Now I will dedicate the rest of the evening (night?) to this game, starting with a massive reading process...