Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[McCaber]

Well, I'm here. Lamentations about uncle Noggie and that other guy, etc. Aganzir, my love, we'll get through this just fine.

Now, to business. Right now, the phantom looks innocent to me. sally is slightly worrying, as is Cailin. I'll be back with some more solid info, but that'll have to do for now.

[Nerwen]

Hello, my friends and relations (most of you are both, come to think of it). I'm so sorry to have deserted our afflicted village in its hour of need. I have been gathering herbs to ease the pain of my brother's death. Like to try some, anyone? No?

For a while, now, I have been standing aside, listening to what others have to say. Which has been as follows:

1. We should try and lynch wolves.

2. No, we should try and lynch the Evil Wizard.

3. No, we should try and lynch them both.

People seem much more reluctant to put forward any method of achieving any of these goals. The only suggestions I've heard have been, "Guess on basis of personality" and, "Lynch people until we find some wolves, and then we'll know who picked them". I don't find either of these plans appealing (as a healer, I shrink from unnecessary bloodshed).

As has been pointed out (much) more than once, we cannot count on spotting wolf interactions, since the wolves may not know who each other are. I don't see why this is such an issue. My training in healing touched on the unpleasant subject of lycanthropy. According to the ancient lore passed on to me from the earliest times, werewolves often don't show much in the way of pack behaviour on Day 1 anyway... but there are other ways in which they may reveal their beastly nature.

Some of them have been known to use diversionary tactics such as

1. Starting/continuing pointless debates

2. Making lots of "empty" posts full of banter or non-specific general statements that seem helpful but aren't when you look at them closely

3. Repeating what other people have said already.

The only problem is that there's been so much of that toDay, it's hard to know where to start.

Edit: X'd since Legate at #77.

[Nerwen]

A thought:

According to the ancient knowledge that has been passed down to me through untold generations of healers, the person sacrificed on Day 1 is usually an innocent– but his or her death is not always in vain, since it may cause the wolves to give themselves away.

Unfortunately, if the wolves don't know each others' identities (or that of the EW), the voting pattern may not help much toMorrow. I'd expect the wolves to be much less ready to jump on the nearest bandwagon than usual.

On the other hand, if they do know each others' identities, all these suggestions to the contrary could be just an attempt to plant a meme in our heads, so we'll ignore the evidence. Okay, maybe that's farfetched, but strange things happen in WW.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The only problem is that there's been so much of that toDay, it's hard to know where to start.

That was Nogrod's original idea.

Greenie's (although I liked calling her Lily) post looks wrong. What she says there is that tp is a Gifted or the GW as if he's not the EW or a Wolf but is neither a normal villager-- And I think such things shouldn't be said aloud! I find such kind of posts suspicious.

Aganzir on the other hand feels more Innocent than usually, though a bit nastier and funnier. I'm not completely sure, but her posts #68 and #75 look quite sincere.

Which brings to Sally and her vote. It looks quite nasty as it comes right after Aganzir's accusation of tp. It's an easy vote, but I won't vote her for just that.

Myself, I find tp a more evil (not meaning he's a more likely Baddie) Fea at the moment. I haven't played with him before, but there's the same quite alarming "don't care" attitude like with Fea, especially when she was a Wolf.

I'm also slightly uneasy about Celuien and Cailín, I can't really say what it is, the way they have phraised their posts or their attitude (mainly Celuien's). I agree with both to some point, but, but, but.

Ok, nothing really decisive from me at the moment.

edit: Xd with Nerwen

[Volo]

My "We Wolves" was a typo (why can I imagine myself saying this even if I were a Wolf), we -> the. By "us" I meant everybody who's not a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Volo

1. Wolf - scry: Baddies lose one player, goodies gain.
2. Wolf - lynch: Baddies lose one player.
3. EW - scry: EW revealed to GW.
4. EW - lynch: EW revealed to all.

Actually two more variations have to be added:
5. Ordo - scry: GW knows the role and maybe assigns a new one.
6. Ordo - lynch: Goodies lose one player.
Drat, I forgot what my point was supposed to be. Probably trying to contradict what I said before, ah well. 5. is slightly better than 6.

I'll be around, but before sending more opinions I'll do some notes and think.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm not sure what's worse: Volo making a statement that can be read as a wolf slip (but I remember an ancestor of him making a wolf slip while being innocent, too ), or A Little Green pointing out the quote - without any opinion of her own - in order to have the mob feast on it while keeping her own hands clean.

Now, son, I didn't (or don't) know what to think about it myself. I felt the need to point it out in case someone else could read something from it. I didn't find it necessary to say "I don't know what to say about it" or "it could be a slip or it could not or... etc".

Originally Posted by Volo

Greenie's (although I liked calling her Lily) post looks wrong. What she says there is that tp is a Gifted or the GW as if he's not the EW or a Wolf but is neither a normal villager-- And I think such things shouldn't be said aloud! I find such kind of posts suspicious.

Actually I never thought he might be the GW or a gifted... To me he feels like neither. (And feel free to call me Lily if it suits you better. I like both. )

Sally and Gwath's votes both made me fairly uneasy, though for different reasons. Sally's, like someone said, looked a bit too easy. Gwath's I don't like because voting without stating any reasons for the choice is both unhelpful (if having suspicions about someone, one should at least reason them a bit if he really wants that one lynched) and irritating and never fails to make me suspicious.

I read Gwath's posts. Maybe I'm slow but I only just realised that he not only voted without stating a reason but also said

Originally Posted by Gwathie

No, I'm not saying "don't look for wolves." But I do think most of our energy should be directed towards tracking down the EW. In my opinion.

Besides my disagreement with his opinion, I don't like the way he states it. The addition of the "In my opinion" to the end feels pointless to me in every other sense than in a looking nice -sense which looks fishy. So, all in all, Gwath looks pretty bad to me at the moment.

Other than that, this debate leaves me quite baffled so that's all from me at the moment. I'll let Lommy post now and meanwhile try to gather some more substance.


EDIT: x-ed with 1 x Volo

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Cailín

And on Day 1, when we have almost nothing to do but sift through roleplaying posts and criticise others for not being helpful, I believe it can be worthwhile to speculate.

I disagree. Even though the degree of randomness is a bit smaller than usual, there are too many different possibilities for speculating to be of any use - it's still waste of time. And just speculating on things like that instead of talking about people benefits only the evil team.

The way Cailín speaks and still leaves the impression of not saying anything makes me uneasy, especially given random comments like that.

Originally Posted by Durelin

It's clutching.

Thanks. Today seems to be one of those days I can't use any word right.

Originally Posted by Durelin

But really, I think you are, too/being defensive. Or maybe you're just frustrated cause you really think I'm an idiot. My argument wasn't just "Isabel's only posted once, Aganzir determines she is innocent, thus Aganzir doesn't look innocent." I didn't take up a whole paragraph just to say that. You make me uncomfortable. I don't know why. Have I played with you before? It shouldn't matter, but...yeah, it probably does.

At least once - in Saucie's game a year ago. But you died on the first night so I'm not sure if it counts.
Anyway I suppose I always get defensive if I'm suspected with grounds that don't really make sense to me.

I don't like Legate (oooh what a surprise! ). He looks probably the most opportunistic this far, I can't really put my finger on it. There's the same kind speaking-but-not-saying-anything air as about Cailín. And his posts look somewhat... formulated and restrained.

I think Mac and Volo look more or less innocent for now.

Great to see that my darling McCaber and Aunt Nerwen have arrived. But what about Nilp, Eönwë and Diamond?

edit: xed with Volo & Greenie

[Nerwen]

Oh dear, my poor Grandpa. I hadn't even noticed that "we wolves" thing. But I'd like to point out that an innocent ancestor of Volo's once admitted that it was "possible" he was a wolf. But it's also reasonable of Greenie to point that out. Somebody had to.

Edit: X'd with Niece Aganzir.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Celuien

The usual daytime teamwork patterns can't be counted upon as a way to look for evil since there's no way to know if the wolves know each other's identities - and I would doubt that at this early point that they would as there's too much chance of flux from one side to the other.

Okay, so what do you suggest?
I can agree that not much that is apparent is going to be done the first day, though whatever if anything is done toDay will be extremely helpful later on. I don't think in the recorded history of WW on the Downs a village has caught more than one wolf on the first day, or any 'big' scheme of theirs in one swoop.
If that was happening, I'd seriously look into having telepathic devices implanted into my brain.
Though, I don't think it would be smart to just sit around and wait to be eaten, or wait a few days before trying anything. Mistakes happen, you learn from them, and you play on.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'd expect the wolves to be much less ready to jump on the nearest bandwagon than usual.

If they did, that would be an amazing second Day... Wishful thinking, sorry.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Her posts have been rather boring. I'm used to them being a bit more interesting.

I know, but sorry dear I'm just not in my groove today or toDay. Finals week is nigh and I couldn't think a bit of wit to save my life. I'm trying though, to break off the tunnel vision of 'oh wow, I think I've seriously overestimated my abilities and schedule'.

Originally Posted by Agan

Ka, because she's always evil.

Oh pish, seriously as I've said before, that last game was pure luck. Look at me now, I have the memory of a vegetable.

As for you, I see you're acting your usual self, and no I'm not going to wholly trust you either. Even if you are family. I'm watching you too.

Originally Posted by Agan

Quite honestly, I assume the wizards have played enough so that they have at least some kind of ideas about what the players are like.

Okay, now that I can agree with you dear sister. If anything I doubt the wizards will invest too much of their time with depending on lists, and instead see how others are bandwagoning with them/reacting. Lists, as statistics are too easily subject to personal whim. A wolf or a gifted could use lists as easily as their wizards to get a point across.
Meaning, we need to remember that a gifted or a wolf is given a task of any sort, though how they reach them could be a number of ways. The wizards just want to see their goals met with as little loss or consequences.

Originally Posted by Durelin

It's the phantom who's begging for attention. phantom to Evil Wizard...not much of a stretch.

I thought tp always wants attention?

I don't have much of a grounded suspicion on anyone yet, but tp's personality doesn't strike me as an immediate suspicion for EW, let alone wolf. I'd rather be more concerned if he was having mutliple personalities in his posts, or acting extremely skitterish in his reasoning.
This is from only what I know of his nature outside of WW, since I believe this is the first time I've played a game with tp in it.

((Going to be gone for another hour or so, but back in time for the deadline. Sorry for the shoddy schedule and boring posts everyone.))

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm not sure what's worse: Volo making a statement that can be read as a wolf slip (but I remember an ancestor of him making a wolf slip while being innocent, too ), or A Little Green pointing out the quote - without any opinion of her own - in order to have the mob feast on it while keeping her own hands clean.

Well, I'm not commenting on Volo's slip because it still baffles me (even though he did explain it - that explanation was a little fishy btw), but I don't certainly think there's anything wrong with Greenie pointing it out: I would have done that had I spotted it.

Agan is definitely not sitting right with me. Really. There's something too... cunning and sneaky in her manner. I don't trust her a little bit. Something in her manner sharply reminds me of her in the Day0 of Volo's game where she was wolf but did not know the identity of her fellows. I can't say what exactly is the thing that is similar, but there is a freaky similarity. I think it has something to do with a certain devil-may-care attitude when it comes to accusing people. I bet that if she's a wolf who has not been told her fellows' identities, she does not care if she lynches them or not, she just wants to stay alive and thus accuses those that genuinely seem wolvish to her. Also, she's not the tiniest bit concerned about flushing out gifteds. I may be reading too much into this, but I think there's this sort of recklessness behind her posts and I do not like it. But if we better wolf candidates, I'm all for keeping her as she's quite sharp and can benefit us as much as her own team.

Originally Posted by Agan

I don't know about sally, but she makes me feel uneasy. Usually she's crazier and somehow less careful.

Oh but this is a very good point. Where is her characteristic cheer and carelessness? Is it just because this so different from any other game she's played this far, or are there more sinister reasons behind this?

Originally Posted by Agan

How come you're so sure?
This looks awfully much like a Brinn-wolf who doesn't know her fellows and states the fact as her opinion as she's afraid she might slip it later.

I really don't get Agan's point here...

Originally Posted by Durelin

phantom to Evil Wizard...not much of a stretch.

Indeed.

Originally Posted by McCaber

I'll be back with some more solid info, but that'll have to do for now.

Info???

I really love Nerwen's grumpy attitude. Besides she makes a lot of sense.


edit: xed with Nerwen and THE Ka

[the phantom]

I'm back! Did you miss me?

Sally, you voted for me! Now how can I get scried multiple times if you go and get me lynched! It was most inconsiderate of you. And aren't you even from the same state as I am? Where's your sense of regional brotherhood?

Oh, and as far as deciding who we should try and lynch, the EW or WWs, does it really matter much who we gun for?

In my opinion we're just as likely to lynch a WW gunning for the EW as we are if we were actually trying to lynch a WW. It's not like we have any concrete knowledge to work with. On Day 1 in particular we're just taking a blind shot in the dark. Heck, if we'd purposefully try and lynch the Seer we'd probably have just as good a chance of lynching a WW.

Here are the lynching odds for today-

Ordo- 71%
Gifted- 11%
WW- 11%
Wizard- 7%

If everything today and tonight go according to the odds, tomorrow we will have 2 Wizards, 4 WWs, 3 gifteds, and 16 Ordos. So that would make the lynch odds tomorrow-

Ordo- 64%
WW- 16%
Gifted- 12%
Wizard- 8%

Just something to chew on.

And I have been seeing some of you saying that the scenario I outlined earlier was overly pessimistic. All right then. I'll run a different scenario.

This time, let us assume that the village and the GW, after Day 1, have 50% success at finding WWs- in other words, in every single Night/Day cycle a WW is either lynched or scried by the GW. If you ask me that would be quite an accomplishment. But let's suppose we actually pull it off. What would that mean for our numbers?

(I'm not counting the Wizards in these tallies)
Day 2- 19-4
Day 3- 16-4
Day 4- 15-4
Day 5- 12-4
Day 6- 9-4
Day 7- 6-4
Day 8- LOSE

So, as we can see, even if we have 50% WW-finding success, by the time we are at Day 5 the village will already have a worse villager-WW ratio than other villages start with. Day 6 we'd be in trouble, Day 7 we'd need a miracle, and Day 8 the game would be over.

So, even if we find a WW in every single cycle, we're still probably dead if we haven't found the EW by Day 6. But before that would be very nice.

This is the point I'm trying to make on the issue of finding WWs as opposed to finding the EW. If we find the EW early, we probably win. If we don't find the EW, it doesn't matter how many WWs we find, we'll still lose.

Originally Posted by Ka

I thought tp always wants attention?

Ah, I see that Ka has me figured out.

Yes, yes, I do want attention. I'm thinking it will increase my odds of being scried. I did the same thing in the last Dueling Wizard village. It only partly worked though- the GW did indeed scry me, but the EW instead of scrying me elected to send the WWs after me the very same night.

I'll never forgive you for that Roa!

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Agan is definitely not sitting right with me. Really.

Really? Hmm... don't you actually know Agan? If so then I'd be inclined to trust your opinion of her. Unless of course you are the EW and Agan is one of your WWs and you are throwing the wolf to the lambs to make yourself look good.

Ha ha... throwing the wolf to the lambs...

But what does Agan think of Lommy?

And what do Rikae and Mac think about each other?

And I'd really like to know what Nog thinks about everyone! But he won't tell. I pmed and asked him what all the roles were, but he just said "Silence! Ask again and I'll mod-fire you!"

[Kitanna]

I have missed a lot and have no time to catch up and will miss the deadline by ten minutes tonight. I need to vote now and I shall cast a random vote.

++ Morm

mostly random. Based on past experiences with Morm and nothing else. I apoligize, but I will have much more to say Day 2 when things aren't so hectic at work.

[Eönwë]

Eonwe continued to run towars the village square. He stopped right in the middle of it, panting. There was silence as he entered. "I came as soon as I heard" he said, when he was faced by looks of surprise.
"Nobody told me until I came back from my lumberjack course"
His eyes fell on the poor headless body of Eomer, and that of Nogrod, cloven in two by who knew what.

"And who are you," said someone.

And Eonwe broke into song:

"I'm a lumberjack, and I'm okay,
I sleep all night and I work all day."

And then Rikae joined in with: "He's a lumberjack, and he's okay,
He sleeps all night and he works all day."

Eonwe: I cut down trees, I eat my lunch,
I go to the nonexistent lavatory.
On Wednesdays I go chopping
And have buttered lembas and miruvor!

Rikae: He cuts down trees, he eats his lunch,
He goes to the ..what?
On Wednesdays he goes chopping
And has buttered lembas and miruvor.

He's a lumberjack, and he's okay,
He sleeps all night and he works all day

Eonwe: I cut down trees, I skip and hunt,
I like to press wild symbelmyne.
I put on Melian's girdle,
And hang around in inns.

Rikae: He cuts down trees, he skips and hunts,
He likes to press wild symbelmyne.
He puts on Melian's girdle
And hangs around.... In inns???????

I cut down trees, I jump up high
I am not womanly
I wish I'd been a girlie just my dear Shas-

He ended abruptly, as everyone stared at him strangely. "Thats just what I learned on my "What is a lumberjack, course, I'm sorry" he said defensively. Everyone just nodded in consent, except for a few of the Others. Those of the unknown parentage.

The people continued to have their discussion about werewolves, as they probably had since morning, and by now it was late afternoon.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

What I meant was exactly this "given his behaviour". You say that it is cobblerish. I personally don't think this conclusion is obvious, so I'd like to see your reasons, especially given the fact that it is a very easy way to discredit a person's opinions as a whole (that's what I meant by "demagogic").

Simply, his behavior overall, how should I label it - just look at his posts. Why should I say anything more? What should I say? Should I label him with some adjective? "Hasty", "harsh", "funny", what? None of these would do, mind you. He behaves like a cobbler would do for me: this is what I said, and that will be enough. However, the conclusion was that I considered him rather innocent because of that. And what is that you have about discrediting a person's opinions, I still don't get it. You mean that I am discrediting phantom's opinions, i.e. as if I were saying "he is cobblerish, therefore don't listen to him"? That was by no way what I meant. I only stated: He seems to me to behave like a cobbler. The same way as if I said that he behaves like a hedgehog or like Eddie Murphy. If there was any conclusion concerning how any of his words should be interpretated, then it was what I said that I think he wanted only to "show off" by these "hey scry me" things and such. But that was all. See above.

Nerwen's posting, especially her post #82 actually looks sensible, and innocentish. However, I can as well imagine her evilly grinning behind this innocent mask. But that's just the tiny bit of feeling. She speaks sense, if nothing else, this far.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

People seem much more reluctant to put forward any method of achieving any of these goals. The only suggestions I've heard have been, "Guess on basis of personality" and, "Lynch people until we find some wolves, and then we'll know who picked them". I don't find either of these plans appealing (as a healer, I shrink from unnecessary bloodshed).

Actually, I also - although I see I already meddled in that - don't see a point in such discussions, respectively: don't see a point in their subject. What people say, and that they interact and actually say something, is another thing and it's good. But otherwise, I think that simply everyone should do what he thinks is the best and then something will happen. Especially on Day 1, it is how it will end anyway, and don't tell me that it isn't true.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Besides my disagreement with his opinion, I don't like the way he states it. The addition of the "In my opinion" to the end feels pointless to me in every other sense than in a looking nice -sense which looks fishy. So, all in all, Gwath looks pretty bad to me at the moment.

Yes, that was the thing I pointed out as well. Hm... there's so many posts that it's good you reminded me of that, and also for myself, I must remind myself that with Gwath, this is always relative... (merely repeating what I said earlier).

LG, Volo, eventually Gwath... still those who figure upper on my list. Now even there are their interactions, which are really interesting "in-group", but then, do the Wolves know each other or don't they? And even if they do, would they interact so? And even if they don't know, what would such interaction mean?

EDIT: x-ed since Nerwen's last post

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I disagree. Even though the degree of randomness is a bit smaller than usual, there are too many different possibilities for speculating to be of any use - it's still waste of time. And just speculating on things like that instead of talking about people benefits only the evil team.

The way Cailín speaks and still leaves the impression of not saying anything makes me uneasy, especially given random comments like that.

You can consider it a waste of time if you like, but if I wish to hunt for possible baddies using a method that I think makes sense then I will continue to do so. I believe that much of what other villagers are saying can be construed as a waste of time, but I'm prepared to give them more time to get their thoughts sorted.

I leave the impression of not saying anything? And I suppose everyone else in the village has been chock-full of useful tidbits? Of course not! It's Day 1 and very little of interest has been said.

And nothing I say is random, you insolent girl.

[Durelin]

Oh, Aganzir - the clutching was a joke (if the 'Thanks' was not sarcastic... ). I don't know which one it 'is', if there it's defined anywhere, not that it even matters. I just remember a Saucepan-Nogrod-me-TGWBS argument fiasco, and then it was clutching, I believe...maybe. I think I might have been accused of straw-clutching. I remember something like "is that the sound of straws being clutched?" or something. Amusing. That was insane.

Ah, yeah...I remember the frustration of Sauce's game...I had a cool role and everything! (And sorry I didn't remember...was frustrated I died on Night 1 and don't think I really followed the game, hah.)

Hmm, your post was too nice to me. Hmm.

I agree with you on Cailin.

Nerwen, a bit more's been said than what you summarize...we got beyond the Wolves and EW topic for the most part. Give us more credit. Also, your entire first post is basically repeating what other's have said to criticize/disagree with it or to put it into a list without really giving anything new. Your second post gives a little. But I mean...discussion can be repetitive and still be productive, right? And you can have a lot of just agreeing and disagreeing and it still be interesting...maybe who people choose to agree and disagree with can mean something.

Why are we bothering to look for new things under the sun, anyway? What game number is this?

*pats the Ka*

Oh, and yeah, my the phantom wanting attention comment was supposed to mean he always wants attention, though it was worded strangely. I was in rant-mode, so I was just typing whatever came out of my head. Probably do that too much.

I've been practically ignoring (definitely 'ignoring' them in my posts) lots of people but dang there are a lot of people in this game...gotta step back maybe. See if Legate or Lommy are looking creepy. And Rikae needs to post more, I miss her and finding her suspicious.

Edit: Whoa, crossed with tp onwards.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Really? Hmm... don't you actually know Agan? If so then I'd be inclined to trust your opinion of her. Unless of course you are the EW and Agan is one of your WWs and you are throwing the wolf to the lambs to make yourself look good.

Yes, she's one of my closest friends. Also, A Little Green is my sister. And furthermore, Volo is an RL friend of mine as well. Still, I do not advise you to trust my judgement of any of them. It is probably as biased and faulty as that of someone who does not know them as well as I do. In fact, Agan is better at fooling me than most other ww players I've played with.


edit: xed with Legate, Cailín and Durelin

[the phantom]

Oh, and Legate, just so you know, I am actually a cobbler. It's amazing that you picked it out so quickly. Nog thought it'd be funny to make me one after that last game I modded.

Ah, but I'm off to take my turn watching the sheep. Did you count them this morning? I'm worried that the WWs will take a liking to them. Be back in a bit.

[Durelin]

Whatever you say, phantom, dear.

(Nothing meant by 'dear', Lhuna. )

[Cailín]

I wish to point out that I've been misquoted twice now (due to a nameless possession this was not noted before).

Roa assigns one of Celuien's quotes about teamwork pattern and so on to me. The quote includes the word flux - not even sure what that means.

This quote is later also assigned to me by Ka. I actually find this carelessness rather suspicious, but I want to clear up this situation at least. Roa's mistake is a bit strange, but Ka's words about me over faulty evidence is more worrying. Based on events of Day 1 she's right at the top of my suspicion list.

[Nerwen]

Based on my previous arguments, here is a list of people I think are being (deliberately?) unhelpful/diversionary/sinister.

1. The Phantom.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Bah! Why bother trying to find Wolves?

...etc.. etc... starting the whole endless argument that has been going around in circles all Day.

2. Mormegil

Originally Posted by mormegil

I'm only to this point but I must agree with the phantom here. The EW is the key to our success or theirs. (Oh, I can't wait until people misread that statement!) Anyway the EW is the deciding factor.

Originally Posted by mormegil

No, we can't no for certain can we? However, I consider playing the odds the best bet at this stage of the game. If I were the EW, well I would pick...well there's something I must do but I will be back.

Well, that was helpful, Mormegil.

3.Gwathagor

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Hardly ever is the first person lynched a wolf, which I think demonstrates that a single day is rarely enough to identify a baddie, which is why I think it's better to make a concerted effort to find the EW, than to scramble about every day trying to flush out that day's unique wolf line-up. No, I'm not saying "don't look for wolves." But I do think most of our energy should be directed towards tracking down the EW. In my opinion.

No, you mean "in The Phantom's and Morm's opinions". You sound a lot like a Gwathwolf in that post, my dear highwayman, always trying to side with the majority...

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

++Sally

And you voted her because...?


4.Brinniel

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Okay, so we know there aren't connections between the wolves as they probably don't know of each other. So we should look for a different connection...and that'd be between the EW and the wolves. By lynching wolves, we will have better clues to who the EW may be.

So, the plan's lynch people at random in the hope that some of them will turn out to be wolves, who will in turn give a clue to the EW?


5.Celuien

Originally Posted by Celuien

At this point, I think our best chances as a village lie with the scrying and seering. The usual daytime teamwork patterns can't be counted upon as a way to look for evil since there's no way to know if the wolves know each other's identities - and I would doubt that at this early point that they would as there's too much chance of flux from one side to the other. By the same token, it's high unlikely that they know the EW's identity. And other sneaky behaviors can't even be counted on because the wolves are perfectly replaceable while the village is still this large, and for all we know might be out there as cannon fodder to distract and confuse the search for the EW, who's really the one that has to be discovered to stabilize the werewolf population flux and make it possible for the village to be victorious.

And we'll do this... exactly how? Not leading up to another "lynch at will" proposal, by any chance?

6.Cailin.

Carries out Morm's proposal to guess who the EW would have picked by making a list of wolves, based on personality alone. That's pointless and looks like a possible diversion attempt.

7.Legate?

Logical and sensible, but is there a bit of a slippery feel to some of his posts? Nothing I can put my finger on right now, though.

There are also a number of other people, eg McCaber, Shasta, who have posted little or nothing and are possibly flying under the radar.

Edit: fixed numbering.
Edit #2: X'd since The Phantom at #91.

[Kath]

Oh there are so many posts and my head is just not up for it right now. I was going to have a good look but ... ok you know what I'm going to go away for a bit and try and come back later with something more helpful.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am not sure what Lommy sees on (bah!) Agan... though she seems reasonable in for example her reply to phantom that he should not trust her (this I would expect of her... although thinking of it, she would probably do it in any case), however what I would not expect of her...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh but this is a very good point. Where is her characteristic cheer and carelessness? Is it just because this so different from any other game she's played this far, or are there more sinister reasons behind this?

I don't like this that much. Not sure why, but following someone with a suspicion like that... my dear sally does not seem suspicious in any way, she is behaving like she's always, and also she simply voted and that's it. Nothing weird there.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Ah, but I'm off to take my turn watching the sheep. Did you count them this morning? I'm worried that the WWs will take a liking to them. Be back in a bit.

I think there should be all of them. The wolves may have killed Daddy (Cool) and my dear's uncle, but just let them try to lay their... fangs on our sheep!!!

EDIT: x-ed since Cailín

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hello, my friends and relations (most of you are both, come to think of it). I'm so sorry to have deserted our afflicted village in its hour of need. I have been gathering herbs to ease the pain of my brother's death. Like to try some, anyone? No?

For a while, now, I have been standing aside, listening to what others have to say. Which has been as follows:

1. We should try and lynch wolves.

2. No, we should try and lynch the Evil Wizard.

3. No, we should try and lynch them both.

People seem much more reluctant to put forward any method of achieving any of these goals. The only suggestions I've heard have been, "Guess on basis of personality" and, "Lynch people until we find some wolves, and then we'll know who picked them". I don't find either of these plans appealing (as a healer, I shrink from unnecessary bloodshed).

As has been pointed out (much) more than once, we cannot count on spotting wolf interactions, since the wolves may not know who each other are. I don't see why this is such an issue. My training in healing touched on the unpleasant subject of lycanthropy. According to the ancient lore passed on to me from the earliest times, werewolves often don't show much in the way of pack behaviour on Day 1 anyway... but there are other ways in which they may reveal their beastly nature.

Some of them have been known to use diversionary tactics such as

1. Starting/continuing pointless debates

2. Making lots of "empty" posts full of banter or non-specific general statements that seem helpful but aren't when you look at them closely

3. Repeating what other people have said already.

The only problem is that there's been so much of that toDay, it's hard to know where to start.

Edit: X'd since Legate at #77.

This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.



Cross-posted with Nerwen and others. Nerwen finds my methods ''pointless'' and possibly distracting.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Durelin

But I mean...discussion can be repetitive and still be productive, right? And you can have a lot of just agreeing and disagreeing and it still be interesting...maybe who people choose to agree and disagree with can mean something.

That's sort of my point, Durelin.

Edit: X'd with Cailín.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Cailín

This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.

Isn't it obvious? What I'm pointing out is that there are still ways to find wolves (or the EW) based on their playing styles rather than known personality or random voting.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Isn't it obvious? What I'm pointing out is that there are still ways to find wolves (or the EW) based on their playing styles rather than known personality or random voting.

Known personality and playing style are intrinsically linked. We judge people's personality based on their playing style. But that is not the reason I found your post suspicious. We all know how this game is played - most of us are experienced veterans - and there is little need, in my opinion, to list common wolf-tactics.

[satansaloser2005]

Quick check-in over break. Hmmmm, it seems one of the biggest points of discussion is catching the EW vs. catching the wolves. May I point out that if the EW is killed, so is the GW, and then we lose (essentially, and assuming she has a full gifted roster) a seer. Not that I'm saying we let the EW sit around and scry her brains out, but I think it'll be a lot easier to find the EW in a couple days (sooner, if possible, but I don't think that's likely) and concentrate on finding wolves for now, as it'll be easier to find the EW once we see her style of wolf-picking.

Hehe, Phantom, don't you know that it is I who will be multi-scried?

Bah. I wish I had more time to look at things, but I'm running late. Best of luck to all at the end of the day; I may be able to stop in around DL, but I highly, HIGHLY doubt it. Til then....


P.S. Durelin, if you want I can totally edit the chart. It was just really late when i wrote down all the names and I kept seeing "Dure" as "Durie" and it stuck. Happy to change it though if you'd wish.

EDIT: x'd with Nerwen's last and Cailin

[Isabellkya]

I just wanted to point something out as I continue to read.

Originally Posted by Nog

Order of Nightly activities

1. Wizards make their scries.
2. Affected players & wizards are informed of the results.
3. Seer dreams, ranger protects & hunter hunts.
4. Wolves kill.

I believe Durelin touched upon it - that the EW could easily have her remaining wolves kill the lost one, before we even knew about it.

Someone did mention it, however I forgot to make a note of it. About the GW having her Ranger protect the Wolf>Ordo, and thus the EW not being able/wanting to waste a kill on a possibly protected Lost Wolf. Yet there is no guarantee that the GW will always have a Ranger.

I don't see a problem with using the usual method to search for Wolves. Sure the Wolves will most likely be a bit more wary as in all probability they do not know their fellows. However if the EW were to instruct any of them to change their typical playing style, I'm sure it would be picked up on.

Some have said it, and I'll just spit it back out. Being either the EW or GW is in all likelihood going to take an amount of commitment, which would most likely not suit someone whom may have larger RL time restraints. I also doubt a newer WW player would want to undergo such a thing. However, I don't believe things can be 100% ruled out of the realm of possibility, purely because there is a large chance of them not being true or occuring.


X'd since Cailin's #101.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Oh pish, seriously as I've said before, that last game was pure luck. Look at me now, I have the memory of a vegetable.

But I'm not ready to forget it yet. :P

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't trust her a little bit.

Thank you.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I bet that if she's a wolf who has not been told her fellows' identities, she does not care if she lynches them or not, she just wants to stay alive and thus accuses those that genuinely seem wolvish to her.

Well you're right there - at least that's what I did in Volo's game. But that argument doesn't quite apply to here - the wolves just can't play the way they'd like. If they don't know the EW's identity, they have to be careful not to accidentally accuse her.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Also, she's not the tiniest bit concerned about flushing out gifteds.

Can you elaborate what you mean by that?

Originally Posted by Lommy

I really don't get Agan's point here...

Assumption: Brinn is a wolf. She doesn't know her fellows, and she's afraid she would slip it later. She says her opinion is that the wolves probably don't know one other, and therefore she knows there cannot be connections between them. Now it's clear for everyone that it's her opinion, and she won't be questioned later if she speaks like the wolves didn't know one another for sure.
And that comment looks plain fishy.
Got it?

Originally Posted by phantom

But what does Agan think of Lommy?

I don't have a proper opinion yet/anymore. Her posts look pretty innocent, but either she's way off or a baddie (and if that's the case, congrats for fooling me, as I've usually caught a Lomwolf a bit earlier ).

Originally Posted by Cailín

I leave the impression of not saying anything? And I suppose everyone else in the village has been chock-full of useful tidbits? Of course not! It's Day 1 and very little of interest has been said.

Well, no... It's just the way you talk yet seemingly avoid mentioning names or stating opinions about people. You have talked more than many others, so I would have expected to hear a bit more what you think.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Oh, Aganzir - the clutching was a joke

So today seems to be also one of those days my sense of humour just doesn't work. :P

Originally Posted by Durelin

And sorry I didn't remember...

No problem, I just have a good memory.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Hmm, your post was too nice to me. Hmm.

Aaaargh I'll stop talking to you! :P
On a more serious note, that's what usually happens when one has first been accused of defensiveness.

edit: xed since Legate

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

That's sort of my point, Durelin.

Sort of, but not really. You noted that the repetition and 'pointless debates' are diversionary, and thus are possibly used often by wolves (especially on Day 1) and because of that they can help point to wolves. But you still say these things are purely diversionary and 'pointless,' and don't seem to think they could be helpful to anyone but the wolves.

Speaking of pointless, eh?

Hmm, maybe a little much, Cailin. I doubt Nerwen made her lists because she thought we were all fools. Not all of us are. But, as I said...what is there left to talk about, tactics-wise and all that rot, in game 47... Ooh, I'm repeating myself now...how Wolfish is that?

Edit: Crossed with Sally onwards.

Oh dear, sorry sally, the Durie thing was totally a joke. I just found it amusing because no one's ever attached 'ie', it's always been 'y' for some reason, so I felt I had to comment somehow. And I am an evil twin and feeling particularly...snarky or something toDay. Is snarky a word outside of my head?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Aaaargh I'll stop talking to you!

Yeah, you probably should. (I really botched that 'clutching' thing. Not even a smilie! Was really even trying to admit that, yeah, I was grasping/clutching, but I prefer 'clutching'...joking about my preference... There. Totally killed it.)

[Macalaure]

Legate is unwilling to answer my question about his comment on tp, getting ridiculously defensive instead. What you're hearing right now is the sound of my alarm bells ringing.

But now I need to go over today's posts again and look for people who haven't gotten their deserved share of attention today. My son seems to be hogging it once again...

[Volo]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

May I point out that if the EW is killed, so is the GW, and then we lose (essentially, and assuming she has a full gifted roster) a seer. Not that I'm saying we let the EW sit around and scry her brains out, but I think it'll be a lot easier to find the EW in a couple days (sooner, if possible, but I don't think that's likely) and concentrate on finding wolves for now, as it'll be easier to find the EW once we see her style of wolf-picking.

I'm fine with us trying to find the Wolves, but I don't agree that it will make any at all easier to find the EW if we kill some Wolves first. Ok, maybe probabilities will be different at that point, but blah.

It's taking me ages with my throughout notes, because I'm procrastinating quite a major deal of the time. So far nothing worth mentioning.

edit: Xd with all since #110.

[Rikae]

He's not the cobbler, he's a very naughty boy.

Really, I simply can't stand this statistics business, especially on day one. TP isn't taking into account the abilities of the GW and gifteds to help us rid the village of wolves. Besides, if we are able to hunt down the EW, as my impudent son seems to think (but doesn't mention how), we can hunt down wolves more easily still. Sure, if you find the EW, great - but this kind of talk is demoralizing for the village and, I suspect, nothing but an attempt to start controversy and, of course, get attention. Stop it now, or you'll go to bed without supper!

As for what I think of my husband.... I don't instinctively trust him, anyway. He's grasping at straws a bit himself (I always heard the phrase worded that way), but then, it's only day one and maybe that is to be expected. Of course I'm watching him closely. I did think his point about Greenie was good, though. That sort of careful wording and passive approach is classically wolfish (to name just one wolfish behavior that is not related to wolf interactions).

Otber thoughts at the moment... Roa, Volo,and Lommy look pretty good to me so far... Legate does seem a bit sneaky and controlled, but then, I'm questioning myself on that since I've thought that before when he was innocent. Aganzir doesn't quite seem her usual self- more excited, more defensive, perhaps, and Sally is also acting rather out of character, as others mentioned. Morm and Mac have both seemed a bit eager to accuse, but then, that isn't entirely out of character for either of them.

Alhough I've said that I don't like pessimistic assessments of our wolf hunting abilities on the whole, I do think it's highly unlikely we'll catch a wolf toDay. I certainly don't feel I have enough to go on yet. Perhaps (forgive me, but Nogrod isn't here and someone has to mention it) each of us should, when choosing among our suspects, also think about who is more likely to be discovered later, and who is a potential "submarine"? I don't necessarily mean the quieter or less experienced players, but those who are difficult to judge or easy to overlook.

[Nerwen]

Yes, but as you can surely see, I was leading up to my reasons for placing certain people on my suspicion list.

Having said all that, I have to make an early vote which is necessarily somewhat random.

Hmmn.

++Cailín

seems awfully jumpy all of a sudden...

Edit: X'd since Cailín at #108.

[Cailín]

"seems awfully jumpy" on you, yes!

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Perhaps (forgive me, but Nogrod isn't here and someone has to mention it) each of us should, when choosing among our suspects, also think about who is more likely to be discovered later, and who is a potential "submarine"? I don't necessarily mean the quieter or less experienced players, but those who are difficult to judge or easy to overlook.

(emphasis added...)

KATH. morm.

Legate was pretty darned defensive there. That's a lengthy rant of a paragraph to devote to defending his opinion of...phantom sillyness.

Edit: Crossed with Cailin.

Not on me, yet?

And yeah, with the Legate thing I was responding to Mac. That was the only thing Legate's said that's stood out to me at all, in a good light or bad.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Legate is unwilling to answer my question about his comment on tp, getting ridiculously defensive instead. What you're hearing right now is the sound of my alarm bells ringing.

Look, I've been trying to answer you for about four posts. And obviously I have still not answered the question you want to have answered. Just tell me then WHAT IS THE QUESTION. Clearly, simply, if possible in one sentence, the way that it will be understandable. I thought I guessed what you meant last time. Apparently not. Then tell me.

[Lalaith]

Right, black sheep is back.
I've had a quick look at all the posts and the first thing that strikes me, is this debate about wizards over-ruling and/or changing people's natural playing styles. It's an interesting idea, and got me thinking.

I don't think the EW is going to tell the wolves about each other, and I don't even think that s/he's going to reveal to them. But what s/he might do, I think, is give them a shortlist of non-evil team people to frame for lynching, in order to stop them killing each other by mistake.

So here's a possible way to catch wolves - who's trying to trump up a spurious charge against someone, and are there any patterns there?

Anyway, I'm going to do a closer analysis of posts, and then I'll post again. Also, if no-one else has done a vote count by the time I'm done, I'll post one of those too.