WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

I said screamed because the way it was written sounded so over the top that I could practically hear you yelling in my head. I didn't put Nogrod's name because I couldn't recall who had said it. It was your reaction more than what you were reacting to that caught my attention. At the time I had to post quickly (as seems to be a recurring theme at the moment ) and so I didn't bother to look since it didn't really matter.

Okay, maybe you're not so wolfish as I thought, Kath. But what you did do, then, is take that post right out of context. Apparently you could never even be bothered re-reading it, but you were prepared to lynch me on the basis of it.

Originally Posted by Kath

And you know I pretty much did want you to spend your time defending yourself. I was suspicious of you, for fair enough reasons in my own mind even if you do not believe them, and I wanted to know what you had to say for yourself. You do seem jumpy, spiky even, determined that no one should think evil of you even for a second, or at least that's how it seems.

Well... I just can't see it. You, on the other hand, seemed jumpy to me– and still do. And would you have listened to anything I had to say in my own defence? Or would you have attacked me for being "defensive"?

Now that you've explained yourself I'm less inclined to think you guilty, but I can't say I'm happy about the whole thing. We'll see.

[Valier]

Well I see not much has been written while I slept. I would like to address a few things....I have explained this time and time again...I have a hard time explaining myself in these games. I read the thread and my brain comes up with weird connections. Sometimes I am unable to articulate what I found odd or suspicious about people. But I do try when it appears clearly to me.

My vote today, yes was a little hasty, as I was unsure if I would have time today to post before work. I got up a wee bit earlier and had time to read what has been said.

I think the exchange made recently between Nerwen and Kath seems odd. Why would you write up a whole post about why you defended yourself on Day one, when noone really asked? Then Kath just happens to come on after and "explains" herself and Nerwen your ok with that now and your whole posts which are all fairly close together, mean nothing now? looks orchestrated by wolves to me.

--Aganzir

++Nerwen

I'm not sure if this is the best move,and I hate to use my retract so early, but after I reread, Nerwen still looks suspicious from yesterday, more than Aganzir. and her posts today, just don't sit right with me.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Valier

My vote today, yes was a little hasty, as I was unsure if I would have time today to post before work. I got up a wee bit earlier and had time to read what has been said.

I think the exchange made recently between Nerwen and Kath seems odd. Why would you write up a whole post about why you defended yourself on Day one, when noone really asked? Then Kath just happens to come on after and "explains" herself and Nerwen your ok with that now and your whole posts which are all fairly close together, mean nothing now? looks orchestrated by wolves to me.

But that is not what happened, Valier. I wasn't explaining why I defended myself, I was giving reasons why I thought Kath might be a wolf. I said so at the top of my post. Do you actually read these things properly?

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'd just like to talk about Kath, and her attacks on me yesterday, which I think are quite wolfish:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But that is not what happened, Valier. I wasn't explaining why I defended myself, I was giving reasons why I thought Kath might be a wolf. I said so at the top of my post. Do you actually read these things properly?

The top quote to me sounds like you are trying to make Kath look guilty because she accused you, but you in turn are doing the same. So her "attacks" on you could not be warrented? She was only giving reasons why she thought you were a wolf, aren't you doing the same thing?

And yes for the most part I do read "these things" properly! It is super early in the morning here for me and I am trying as hard as I can to be useful. So my day and vote are not wasted!!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Valier

The top quote to me sounds like you are trying to make Kath look guilty because she accused you, but you in turn are doing the same. So her "attacks" on you could not be warrented? She was only giving reasons why she thought you were a wolf, aren't you doing the same thing?

*sigh* Here we go again. Valier, I did not think Kath guilty because she accused me. I thought she was guilty because of the nature of her accusation. Do you not understand the difference?

I thought there was a real chance she might be a wolf, so I wanted to discuss it. Then she responded, after which I decided it was less likely she was a wolf. That's all.

I am getting rather sick of you throwing accusations around based on either obvious misreadings or nothing at all.

Now how about you answer my question from earlier. What is so suspicious about The Might?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

OT: I'm sorry to hear you're not well, Saucepan Man.

Thank you, but actually I’m fine. It’s my internet connection that keeps dying. I was trying to express it ‘in character’.

Originally Posted by morm

Although now I'm looking at things a bit differently...Would the wolves, assuming Nerwen is a wolf, have all voted for one of their own? If not, it doesn't make sense to kill Shasta. ARGH! I feel I keep talking myself in circles...

Hehe, I know the feeling. Something weird was happening towards the end of Day 1, I am sure, but it’s got me completely confused. As to your substantive point, if Nerwen is a Wolf, it doesn’t make any sense that they would kill Shasta. If NogWolf’s behaviour was down to the fact that NerWolf’s head was also on the block, Shasta’s proven innocence takes away any cover that she might have had in that regard. I don’t think a Wolfish Nerwen would have killed Shasta.

Originally Posted by Boro

Wolves enter into a village with a tremendous advantage, they know who's side everyone is on...we don't. Why would they wish to lessen their numbers right off the start, especially since Day 1 is a "lottery"?

Well, if Mac is a Wolf, I don’t believe that was their original intention. On this line of thinking, they would have started out trying to distance themselves, but it got out of hand when others also started suspecting Noggie, so they hatched a plan to make Mac look good by encouraging Nog’s demise. That whole thing with Nogrod’s cod reasoning against Rikae and Mac jumping on it just looks starnge to me. Were it not for that, I would be more comfortable dismissing the MacWolf theory.

Another thing about Mac. He has slightly backed off his Aganzir theory. I wonder whether that might be because it was pointed out (by Rikae, I think) that the same line of reasoning applied to him (indeed moreso, given my earlier point that a MacWolf had more to gain from Nog’s death than an AganWolf).

The other possibility is that either Aganzir or Legate is a Wolf (or both are) and agreed with Nogrod in the final hours that they would turn against him to make themselves look good. Aganzir has explained her behaviour in voting for Nog and encouraging Shasta to do so, and it looks credible. And her vote came before Nog’s strange reaction to Rikae’s Christmas song. For that reason, Legate’s vote (on the basis of Nog’s starnge Rikae vote) actually sticks to me out as the more likely Wolf-on-Wolf vote fo the two.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Legate's vote against [b]Nogrod[/] I think jumps at me the most. Nogrod had already been in the lead, yet if wolfy why put that extra vote? To cover a behind when lynched?

I agree, but not for the reason that you have given, but rather for the reasoning above.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway, Nogrod had just started acting in an extremely wolfish manner. If I'd been there I think I'd have changed my vote to him too, to make sure. It all seems quite reasonable to me.

Have you considered the possibility that Nog started behaving in an extremely Wolfish manner precisely because he wanted to give cover to a fellow Wolf to vote for him?

Originally Posted by Legate

I believe yesterDay, the wolves simply failed to save Nogrod from the gallows.

I really don’t agree with this. I am sure that there was at least one Wolf plus Noggie here at the deadline yesterDay. Given that they can communicate during the Day, they surely would have been able to save him had they wanted to.

Originally Posted by Legate

Concerning his vote for Rikae, I believe it was simply a waste of a vote - unless it was a wolf-on-wolf safe vote, which is also an option (a safe one at that time; though I would expect Nog to act in a more clever way. Though maybe actually this is a clever way).

I was thinking much the same. It is quite possible that a Wolf facing the gallows would put in a throwaway vote for a fellow Wolf to make them look good. But is it too obvious for Noggie? Either way, I don’t think that we can dismiss Rikae from the mix. She looks to have been acting fairly typically so far, but then I would expect a Wolf who was under no pressure to do exactly that.

Both Boro and Eomer have effectively ‘come clean’ and admitted that they were trying to save Noggie, because they thought him innocent. As I said earlier, if either was a Wolf and wanted to save him, they could have coordinated with Nog himself to do it. They both sound genuine enough to me so, for now, I am prepared to regard them both as putative innocents.

One villager who is beginning to concern me, however, is Valier. As we all know, she is a ‘hunch’ player, but my recollection is that she is normally quite confident in her hunches. Here, however, she seems far less sure about them. It doesn’t quite ring true to me, so I’ll be keeping my eye on her.

One final thought. If Azaelia does not post and vote toDay then, according to the phanto-mod’s rules, something bad will happen to her side. Not good if she’s innocent. But it may help us if she is a Wolf and, either way, might at least indicate which side she is on (assuming that she doesn’t get modfired as well).

[mormegil]

The more Nerwen speaks the more I think she is a jumpy wolf that feels that she needs to defend everything she does or says and any accusation thrown at her. Wolves often fall into this pitfall of getting overly jumpy and anxious and I think Nerwen has fallen into that pitall.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Thank you, but actually I’m fine. It’s my internet connection that keeps dying. I was trying to express it ‘in character’.

Well, that's good. You had me fooled.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Have you considered the possibility that Nog started behaving in an extremely Wolfish manner precisely because he wanted to give cover to a fellow Wolf to vote for him?

No, I hadn’t. That’s something to think about.

Originally Posted by mormegil

The more Nerwen speaks the more I think she is a jumpy wolf that feels that she needs to defend everything she does or says and any accusation thrown at her. Wolves often fall into this pitfall of getting overly jumpy and anxious and I think Nerwen has fallen into that pitall.

So I guess you've had an attack of total amnesia about your own behaviour yesterDay, Morm?

Anyway, I have to vote now, in case I'm not able to later. While there are a number of people I suspect, I think Valier is the most prominent. I know people say she has "hunches", but this time, at least, I think she's using her reputation. It's all so much easier when you don't have to give proper reasons for your suspicions.

++Valier.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

There are so many villagers that discussion can get a bit complicated. So far I've backed off a bit and been more of an observer. This allows slightly less jumbled debate (because there is less of it). However, in the event of my death nothing much will have been achieved by my life (other than my beautiful grave which I have already dug), so that's why I'm going to summarize my current thoughts on all the villagers.

Aganzir: Clever. I think she's good to have around, and I have agreed with her on a few points.

Azaelia: N/A

Boromir88: Seems quite typical of him. Good for discussion. Could well be wolvish but if so will be found out later by his busy mouth.

Farael: Again, good for discussion. Considers everything. Useful for now.

Isabellkya: Clever; not too involved. Possibly playing observer like me. Will probably be much suspected later on.

Kath: Seems pretty innocent to me. I think Nerwen is wrong about her.

Legate: Doesn't feel too comfortable to me. I will watch him closely.

Macalaure: The Nogrod thing bothers me, and if Mac is innocent I along with many others will feel embarrassed at suspecting the man who did more than anything to bring the foul wolf down; but... he's creepy, that jailer.

Mormegil: For now I trust Mormegil. Fairly comfortable about him.

Nerwen: Still unsure. SPM made good point about wolf-Nerwen probably keeping Shasta alive. She seems a bit wrong to me, but I'm leaning towards thinking she's innocent.

Rikae: Exactly like Mac -- seems creepy to me. Not sure why but I never trust her.

The Might: Voted for me which I must disagree with. But I don't think he's a wolf. Worth watching maybe.

Saucepan Man: Sometimes he stirs me the wrong way; but often I find myself just agreeing with whatever he says. Here and now, I'm pretty sure he's innocent. It would be mad to lynch him now anyway.

Valier: There is no other player I find so wolvish everytime I see him/her. Valier worries me endlessly and I can never really explain it. She has a furry soul.

[The Might]

I really dislike the way Valier throws accusations around without really saying why...seems quite wolvish to me. Of course yesterDays's vote could theoretically be an orchestrated event by the wolves, but I still doubt that Nerwen is a wolf, to me she rather seems to be an innocent getting to many accusations (I know how that feels). This feeling about Nerwen's innocence is also increased by Eomer's vote for her, considering the fact that Eomer is at the time my prime suspect. His vote seems quite wolvish and this explanation toDay of why Shasta could have been chosen seems as if he knew why the Wolves did that as one of them and tried to look helpful. All in all, Eomer seems quite furry and so I feel the need to vote: ++Eomer I am not quite sure if I will be able to be back until the deadline, I shall try and if I happen to change my mind based on the posts that will follow I might also change my vote for toDay. And to Legate, this has something to do with the fact that I have vacation now and thus a lot more time on my hands. So instead of learning for some test I can think a bit more rather then just post quickly. Btw, I strangely seem no to be able to bold anything?!?!? EDIT: Also my paragraphs are all mixed together...and when I'm posting the background is grey not black as usually...and I can't use smilies`...huh?

[mormegil]

I'm to post 225 and have a few comments.

Boromir seems rather cocky about the whole thing. A few comments have been given and the manner in which he presents himself doesn't sit well with me. I also find it odd that he basically refuses to believe the possibility that Mac/Nogrod were conspiring simply because 'it's never been done before'. Seems rather weak and that he's not open to other possibilities. His votes have been without any real reason. Something stinks of wet fur with that one.

Nerwen seems rather jumpy and wolfish too honestly. Sadly I haven't been able to do the detailed review of her but from what I read the first time through I get a sense that she is up to no good.

Kath seems to be pressed for time and a little irritated that she doesn't have more, which I can understand. I think her innocent.

SpM seems genuine but he can seem that way even if he is guilty. I am thinking innocent.

Isabel gives off bad vibes to me but I am unfamiliar with her so it could be a Kath/Farael/Lommy syndrome type person for me (I usually suspect those regardless)

Eomer ,while completely touched in the head, I think is innocent.

Valier is a bit more short and less substantive than normal which is unnerving.

The Might...I have no idea

Agan...I have no idea but some good points have been brought up and I have been dupped before by her so I think more pressure on her is a good thing.

Legate seems innocent and helpful

Mac despite my thought of the Mac/Nogrod conspiracy I think he is likely innocent though he is one that I will continue to monitor more closely.

I've probably missed a few but these are the ones on my mind the most right now...I will have time later to look a bit more and vote, though digging through old posts will be improbable for me at this point.

[Aganzir]

I've just spent hours experiencing with my new Linux & don't have too much energy at the moment.

Originally Posted by Mac

I still don't understand what exactly made you suspicious of him.

Well, at least this is simple: you. Not your points against him but the argument you two were having.

I see the situation this way. Of the people alive now, I was the first one to mention Nog and Mac's dispute looked wolfish (Shasta, who noticed it first, is dead). Before Nog died, he accused & voted Rikae, possibly hoping we would think it was a wolf-on-wolf vote. I dare to guess Rikae is one of the most dangerous players for a Macwolf.
And when Nogrod is revealed to be a wolf, what does Mac do? He makes a big case against me. I'm not quite surprised. Trying to make me use my energy on defending myself rather than suspecting him. Ha, and even says I'm not defending myself enough ("only defended yourself against the accusations you were able to defend yourself against"). Doesn't work.

Originally Posted by Mac on Nog

Seriously, read everything he posts for today very critical. If you think he's innocent, listen to him, if not, then don't let him twist your mind and please don't hesitate to vote for him.

This is not something an innocent says. If Mac thinks Noggie is a wolf, why on earth does he tell others to listen to him? He's saying "Even though I think Noggie is a wolf, I hope you others won't do that. Don't pay too much attention to my opinions, I can be wrong as well."
I can't put my finger on it any better, but it was something I didn't like even when I read it on Day 1. With Nogwolf dead, it makes me feel only worse about Mac.

I must go and look for some chains in the cellar now. Surely we don't want today's victim has a chance to escape, like Nog tried to do.
Will be back some hours before the deadline.

xed with Nerwen and Valier